Stock Thread (27 Viewers)

[proteus126]

The Shiller PE10 is at 26 or so. [SIZE=11pt]http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/[/SIZE]

The market has to drop significantly sometime in the next few years, right? Right??

I've been expecting a strong drop for a year. It has actually been incredibly frustrating watching the S&P 500 maintain and extend gains. Which is nuts since, while I have part of my $$ in the "won't go down" G fund, I have more in stocks. Just waiting so I can realign more heavily in equities.

Part of me really would like to see a 30% drop, just so I'd feel "right". Doesn't look like it is happening any time soon, notwithstanding today's dump. Kind of feel like I just lighten up even further on stocks, actually. Don't have the balls to do major moves at the moment.

 

[siffoin]

The last few years the market has been doing the following:

1) There is a bullish move that last for weeks to months that carries the market to new highs.

2) There is a short period of consolidation

3) The market enters a short term period of volatility. Moving lower and lower till it rolls all the technical indicators to lean bearish.

4) Seemingly on the day (+/-3) of "capitulation"- when all the indicators confirm bearish- is when the market actually bottoms and begins a new thrust up.

Very frustrating to a guy like me, who wants to maintain discipline to the trend and play defense when defense is called for.

The process of these moves is conditioning us all to ignore them as "all time highs are always just a few weeks away".

It's dangerous mindset to habituate. And one I am personally struggling with.

I'm satisfied with the positions I'm holding even though most are in confirmed bear trends - as my time horizon on them is far out in the future ($ONVO as talked about last week would be an example).

With that said - for a while I have noticed that the very long term indicators are weak and continuing to get weaker. Some have already confirmed a new bearish trend and others (because they are weekly and monthly time frames and take a very long time to roll over) are very close to turning bearish. When daily, weekly, and monthly indicators are bearish---well it will be interesting to see how the market can overcome that and if it does a learning experience for sure.

My expectation is that the pattern we have seen for the past few years will continue for the time being. That today or within the next few days we bottom and begin to climb back towards the all time highs and probably exceed them. But it is at times like this when you do want to be paying more attention to your portfolio. It's usually when you are fully convinced that you've got the patterns of the market figured out when she turns around and bites you in the ###.

Here's a nice chart of the SP500 Futures over the past couple of years to make us all feel better.

http://www.screencast.com/users/Steelhedge/folders/Default/media/09087583-d7a7-4ead-b48e-6982ef2a2334

 

[General Malaise]

Just logged into Schwab.

 

[Drifter]

Knight Transportation announced the purchase of Barr-Nunn, a private trucking company out of Iowa. The announcement states Barr-Nunn will continue to operate independently. Knight's stock is down on the news, which is a little puzzling. Barr-Nunn is a well run company. For $112MM in expenditures, Night is picking up $115MM in Revenue and $14MM net profit per year. I'm not sure why Knight is down to flat on the news.

Last year when Heartland Transportation bought Gordon Trucking they experienced almost an immediate 25% jump.

Might be an opportunity here.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Just logged into Schwab.

I hope you have been well otherwise, GB. Haven't seen you around much.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

For $112MM in expenditures, Night is picking up $115MM in Revenue and $14MM net profit per year.

Why would they sell for that?

 

[Drifter]

For $112MM in expenditures, Night is picking up $115MM in Revenue and $14MM net profit per year.

Why would they sell for that?

My speculation would be that these are descendants of the original owner and it allowed them to exit with significant cash in hand without betraying the culture their family has built. Other purchasers might have not allowed them to operate independently like this deal does.

I am fairly certain Barr Nunn also operated debt free.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm all cash... Only open position right now is sector rotation... Market is scaring me way too much now to leave anything open. I'll reevaluate at months end.

 

[Eminence]

I'm all cash... Only open position right now is sector rotation... Market is scaring me way too much now to leave anything open. I'll reevaluate at months end.

Pick a few oil companies you like.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I'm all cash... Only open position right now is sector rotation... Market is scaring me way too much now to leave anything open. I'll reevaluate at months end.

Pick a few oil companies you like.

Lucini imo

 

[Drifter]

I'm all cash... Only open position right now is sector rotation... Market is scaring me way too much now to leave anything open. I'll reevaluate at months end.

Pick a few oil companies you like.

Lucini imo

SJM

 

[Drifter]

Later than I expected but the job news is providing the push the market has been looking for. Looks like Consumer Confidence related stocks are also benefiting nicely.

Now, if Oil/Energy can just rebound...

 

[humpback]

I'm all cash... Only open position right now is sector rotation... Market is scaring me way too much now to leave anything open. I'll reevaluate at months end.

So, you really are Lhucks...

 

[culdeus]

right on schedule, pullback, wait 2-3 days, market seeks new highs.

 

[Drifter]

right on schedule, pullback, wait 2-3 days, market seeks new highs.

I think if that Job report had been anything less than stellar, it could have been different.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm all cash... Only open position right now is sector rotation... Market is scaring me way too much now to leave anything open. I'll reevaluate at months end.

So, you really are Lhucks...

If admitting to being a very "beginner" investor and asking a lot of questions makes me Lhucks, than you nailed it. Astute observation

 

[humpback]

I'm all cash... Only open position right now is sector rotation... Market is scaring me way too much now to leave anything open. I'll reevaluate at months end.

So, you really are Lhucks...

If admitting to being a very "beginner" investor and asking a lot of questions makes me Lhucks, than you nailed it. Astute observation

I meant posting about going all cash at almost the exact low in the market. Astute observation.

 

[fantasycurse42]

right on schedule, pullback, wait 2-3 days, market seeks new highs.

I think if that Job report had been anything less than stellar, it could have been different.

Still a small trip to highs... S&P still about 60 points below the highs, hopefully gets there in the next week or two. I'm still cautious that the market may temporarily run out of steam.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm all cash... Only open position right now is sector rotation... Market is scaring me way too much now to leave anything open. I'll reevaluate at months end.

So, you really are Lhucks...

If admitting to being a very "beginner" investor and asking a lot of questions makes me Lhucks, than you nailed it. Astute observation

I meant posting about going all cash at almost the exact low in the market. Astute observation.

Gotcha, my bad... Yea, poor timing, but getting out at the peak is a tough game to play, I had some decent gains across the board so i took them.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

right on schedule, pullback, wait 2-3 days, market seeks new highs.

Thank the baby jeebus. I was starting to understand what it might feel like to bunk with WetDream for a week.

 

[humpback]

I'm all cash... Only open position right now is sector rotation... Market is scaring me way too much now to leave anything open. I'll reevaluate at months end.

So, you really are Lhucks...

If admitting to being a very "beginner" investor and asking a lot of questions makes me Lhucks, than you nailed it. Astute observation

I meant posting about going all cash at almost the exact low in the market. Astute observation.

Gotcha, my bad... Yea, poor timing, but getting out at the peak is a tough game to play, I had some decent gains across the board so i took them.

Yeah, wasn't meant to rub it in, just thought it was ironically similar to his market calls.

 

[Drifter]

Followed GM into Biosyent yesterday below $9. It's the star in my portfolio today on a very good all around day. Probably half my position if/when it goes above 10 and wait and see if this 9-10 bounce because a regular occurrence, which although I know it's not a typical small pharma, is a typical small pharma behaviour (u in behaviour in honor of it's Canadian roots)

 

[Mario Kart]

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gtat

Huge buy opportunity. At an all time low... it has to go higher.

[/Emstrategy]

 

[Andrew74]

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gtat

Huge buy opportunity. At an all time low... it has to go higher.

[/Emstrategy]

I was about to type the same thing.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Cripes! Right to $98+. in minutes. My meager attempt to get in at $80 was blown by

You might get another shot at 80. Still losing oil.

I bought a small amount at $90.20. $90 seems to be as much of a psychological barrier on the low side as $100 was on the high - at least right now.

My order I put in this morning for 50 @ $90 just tripped. We'll see.

I'm selling tomorrow. The more and more I read about just owning shares of a shell company, the more nervous I get.

 

[Eminence]

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gtat

Huge buy opportunity. At an all time low... it has to go higher.

[/Emstrategy]

I was about to type the same thing.

Isn't that the mantra about trading though? Buy low, sell high. If you have any understanding of a company's finances you can make the judgment call.

If you thought GTAT was overvalued and now is undervalued and about to balance itself out. Buy, buy, buy! I like to look at the average price over the past 5 years. If the current price is lower than where is usually trades, great buy.

I know all of you this. But I do put a smidge of critical thinking into it.

 

[Mario Kart]

If you thought GTAT was overvalued and now is undervalued and about to balance itself out. Buy, buy, buy! I like to look at the average price over the past 5 years. If the current price is lower than where is usually trades, great buy.

So if it is trading above the 5 year average, you'd advise to sell as you would expect the price to go down, right?

Sell that stock to buy one with an average below the 5 year line. Win-Win!

 

[sbonomo]

Cripes! Right to $98+. in minutes. My meager attempt to get in at $80 was blown by

You might get another shot at 80. Still losing oil.

I bought a small amount at $90.20. $90 seems to be as much of a psychological barrier on the low side as $100 was on the high - at least right now.

My order I put in this morning for 50 @ $90 just tripped. We'll see.

I'm selling tomorrow. The more and more I read about just owning shares of a shell company, the more nervous I get.

In situations like this think "what would Em do", then do the oppisite.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Em?

 

[Mystery Achiever]

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gtat

Huge buy opportunity. At an all time low... it has to go higher.

[/Emstrategy]

I was about to type the same thing.

Isn't that the mantra about trading though? Buy low, sell high. If you have any understanding of a company's finances you can make the judgment call.

If you thought GTAT was overvalued and now is undervalued and about to balance itself out. Buy, buy, buy! I like to look at the average price over the past 5 years. If the current price is lower than where is usually trades, great buy.

I know all of you this. But I do put a smidge of critical thinking into it.

I know you are all kidding around. But for anyone not aware, I think it is worth mentioning that when a company files for bankruptcy, the stock is worthless.When they emerge, they will issue new shares. These current shares will not benefit from any rebound in the business.

 

[Eminence]

If you thought GTAT was overvalued and now is undervalued and about to balance itself out. Buy, buy, buy! I like to look at the average price over the past 5 years. If the current price is lower than where is usually trades, great buy.

So if it is trading above the 5 year average, you'd advise to sell as you would expect the price to go down, right?

Not at all, each case is unique. You have to look at each company and be able to forecast within a reasonable estimate and allow room for error.

IE: Statistically this stock trades at at least $25.00 once a year. Or it's never been below $17.00 longer than 6 months.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Cripes! Right to $98+. in minutes. My meager attempt to get in at $80 was blown by

You might get another shot at 80. Still losing oil.

I bought a small amount at $90.20. $90 seems to be as much of a psychological barrier on the low side as $100 was on the high - at least right now.

My order I put in this morning for 50 @ $90 just tripped. We'll see.

I'm selling tomorrow. The more and more I read about just owning shares of a shell company, the more nervous I get.

I'm out, lost about $150.

 

[siffoin]

Yes I lost $ holding $GTAT yesterday. I should have know better when the technicals turned bearish in late July. I had plenty of warning.

Why did I hold? Because I believe that the people providing forward guidance were honest in their assessment of their company's future prospects. I believed that I could ignore the technicals for a short period of time and would be rewarded for doing so- especially because the day-to-day volatility of the share price was great enough to whipsaw technicals back and forth. I was lazy.

It's something outside of my personal discipline. Something I've "preached against." I'm totally pissed at myself for letting this happen. Today I'm feeling like the Ted Haggart of traders..coming down from a meth bender and saying "I just did what?"

The lesson here is this:

PEOPLE LIE

CHARTS DONT

If you ignore the charts - the technicals at some point in time - it may not be today - it may not be tomorrow - it may not be next week or next month or next year - but some day you're going to find yourself ####ed right up the ### by the market.

I'm sore and my portfolio is a bit bowlegged after yesterday.

Take heed.

 

[Drifter]

Siff - any books out there you recommend for technical chart analysis?

 

[NREC34]

If Eminence says to buy you need to sell as fast as you can. Even more fail safe than charts/technicals.

 

[siffoin]

Siff - any books out there you recommend for technical chart analysis?

If you want a real simple indicator to just tell you which side of the market to be on - ie: long or protective - just plop a 144 Moving Average Line on a daily chart of the $SPY. It's not perfect - but good enough. We're sitting on it right now too.

If you want to delve into the dark arts- I would learn more towards books that also deal with the psychology and $ management...Dr. Alexander Elder "Trading for a Living" is a great book. Elder also has a set of indicators he created/uses. Book has been out for a long time so your local library probably has a copy. Professional charting is expensive real time. You also want to determine what kind of trader/investor you are - I'm a trend(er)...other look to pick tops/bottoms. Simple is often better when it comes to technical charting.

 

[humpback]

Yes I lost $ holding $GTAT yesterday. I should have know better when the technicals turned bearish in late July. I had plenty of warning.

Why did I hold? Because I believe that the people providing forward guidance were honest in their assessment of their company's future prospects. I believed that I could ignore the technicals for a short period of time and would be rewarded for doing so- especially because the day-to-day volatility of the share price was great enough to whipsaw technicals back and forth. I was lazy.

It's something outside of my personal discipline. Something I've "preached against." I'm totally pissed at myself for letting this happen. Today I'm feeling like the Ted Haggart of traders..coming down from a meth bender and saying "I just did what?"

The lesson here is this:

PEOPLE LIE

CHARTS DONT

If you ignore the charts - the technicals at some point in time - it may not be today - it may not be tomorrow - it may not be next week or next month or next year - but some day you're going to find yourself ####ed right up the ### by the market.

I'm sore and my portfolio is a bit bowlegged after yesterday.

Take heed.

Just curious, but did the bolded happen? It had a huge run up in August, followed by an even larger drop in September (prior to this complete ####ting of the bed).

 

[nirad3]

Yikes, GTAT's a client of my former company. Talk about falling off a cliff.

 

[siffoin]

Yes I lost $ holding $GTAT yesterday. I should have know better when the technicals turned bearish in late July. I had plenty of warning.

Why did I hold? Because I believe that the people providing forward guidance were honest in their assessment of their company's future prospects. I believed that I could ignore the technicals for a short period of time and would be rewarded for doing so- especially because the day-to-day volatility of the share price was great enough to whipsaw technicals back and forth. I was lazy.

It's something outside of my personal discipline. Something I've "preached against." I'm totally pissed at myself for letting this happen. Today I'm feeling like the Ted Haggart of traders..coming down from a meth bender and saying "I just did what?"

The lesson here is this:

PEOPLE LIE

CHARTS DONT

If you ignore the charts - the technicals at some point in time - it may not be today - it may not be tomorrow - it may not be next week or next month or next year - but some day you're going to find yourself ####ed right up the ### by the market.

I'm sore and my portfolio is a bit bowlegged after yesterday.

Take heed.

Just curious, but did the bolded happen? It had a huge run up in August, followed by an even larger drop in September (prior to this complete ####ting of the bed).

Yes the trend for 2014 had gone - Bullish beginning in Feb -> Bearish in May -> Bullish in June -> Bearish in late July. The Aug run up had my indicators "Conflicted" (2:3 indicators were bullish but the major indicator was bearish). After Iphone announcement and the drop below $15 the trend was confirmed Bearish.

I had taken an initial position early in the year (March at around $15) and then wound up writing puts on every bearish trend and doing so had worked my cost basis to around $11 and change (don't quote me on that because I haven't done that accounting but between $11-$12). I guess fortunately I didn't write puts on this most recent particular bear trend though the thought had crossed my mind (I didn't because of what I'm seeing in the general market which has me concerned).

If I'm being 100% honest - I got conditioned to the down trends always being bought. I got lazy. I got burned.

 

[rascal]

Probably get blasted for this, but moved my TSP to government securities for the immediate future.

 

[Wooderson]

GTAT was the first stock I ever bought. I bought it a month ago !!!

Talk about an initiation in to the market. Nothing like starting down a grand. :(

Edit: correction bought it 9/17/14 not even a month.

 

[Eminence]

I'm going to be taking a small break from posting on these boards to work on my life a bit. I wish everyone the best of luck with their investments. As of today, I hold positions in:

WAG

ICEL

ONVO

PHOT

 

[Wooderson]

I'm going to be taking a small break from posting on these boards to work on my life a bit. I wish everyone the best of luck with their investments. As of today, I hold positions in:

WAG

ICEL

ONVO

PHOT

I never understood why people need to take a break from the boards. Just don't use them or use them. There is no requirement.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Gonna test a new strategy... I think I can guarantee 20-25% a year.

Just invest into a 2x S&P fund at 1:55 before the Fed releases their minutes. Sell by EOD, rinse repeat once a month.

This is part sarcastic, but I actually want to start trying it.

 

[jamny]

 

[culdeus]

everyone ok in here?

 

[rascal]

Probably get blasted for this, but moved my TSP to government securities for the immediate future.

 

[sbonomo]

being 30% in cash right now is helping the pain....next question...when to get back in. Next questions, should i buy that stock that i have been waiting to fall forever (GOOG) or distributed equally within the portfolio to average down?

 

[St. Louis Bob]

:X

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm all cash... Only open position right now is sector rotation... Market is scaring me way too much now to leave anything open. I'll reevaluate at months end.

:deepsighofrelief:

Still down almost 3.5% in this one, but luckily out of a bunch of other stuff.