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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Have a small position in FUEL... Reported a great quarter, thinking of increasing the position. They are selling at such a discount in comparison to their competition.
siffoin
Footballguy
I have an update to my blog. You can read it here:
http://steelhedge.com/2014/11/12/you-never-can-really-know-the-future-until-its-past/
Comments, questions and criticisms are always welcome.
http://steelhedge.com/2014/11/12/you-never-can-really-know-the-future-until-its-past/
Comments, questions and criticisms are always welcome.
jason12vb
Footballguy
Couple questions for your Piker run here Siff...
I've been looking at your 2014 history and many of your exit points, especially early on, are not 10 point losers or 15 point winners. Are these instances where your exit points happened off hours and you are selling first thing in the morning; is a case of trusting the current charts more than the entry point charts and and choosing to get out; or just that you didn't want open positions because you would not be able to monitor them for personal reasons? Are you setting up automatic stop losses and limiting profits on your exit points?
Take the first trade for example...
entry date = 1/2
exit date = 1/7 at 7:30am
type = bear
point gain/loss = 9.5
Entry point is 1826.75
exit point is 1827
Did this 9.5 point jump coupled with charts get you to cancel your order early that morning?
Question 2:
Along those same lines...why is the average pt loss not -10? Is there another criteria for exiting before hitting that 10 point loser that's not detailed on SH.com
Thanks for the time and effort you put into all of this!
siffoin
Footballguy
There have been times (the Jan 2 & Jan 7 trades are examples but there are a few more this year) where I get a confirmed trend...and then the trend reverses before it reaches the 15pt gain or 10pt loss.
When I open these trades - it's a set it and forget it...win 15 pts OR lose 10pts. And sometimes the trade closes during regular trading hours and sometimes it closes overnight (One order filled cancels the other). But if I wake up and see that the trend has flipped, or the trend flips during regular market hours - I'll manually cancel the order - in the Jan 2nd trade example Flip from a Bearish Trade to a Bullish Trade.
Typically this occurs when the market is directionless - $VIX is really low. It does happen. You may notice there have been some trades that get within 1-2 pts of winning the 15pts only to turn into losers. #### happens...and a lot of time it happens overnight (that's why I call them the "night monkeys")
The average loss isn't 10pts exactly because of some of those trades...meaning not every trade that has lost - has lost 10pts. In looking at the spreadsheet I see at least 1 winning trade that didn't achieve 15 pts either...so I need to correct the "Average Win"...which will be a tad less than 15pts.
Understand - I'm just a one man show, and definitely not a mathematician..nor a spelling-bee champion.
With all that said - a quick note: I went back to the Top Weekly Sector Rotation and adjusted the spreadsheet to include Fidelity's $7.95 commission. I've also put together a NEW Bi-Weekly (every 2 weeks) Top Sector from the Largest 100 ETFs that I'll add to the page later on today. I sincerely appreciate the comments to help make this better for all.
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tommyGunZ
Footballguy
jason12vb
Footballguy
Thanks for the response, good to hear I'm understanding things.
Are you considering any modifications to your strategy for 2015? The set it and forget it approach seems to be working, but I'm wondering if there's a way to limit those losses after they start out well in the black? By my count there are 7 instances (out of your 23 losses)where you were up 10 or more points before losing in the end....what would the difference be if you could change your stop loss to break even if it hit 10? Would it result in any less 15 pt wins? (i.e. ES_ runs up 10, down to -1, then back to +15 for a winner) Clearly this would be tough to do without spending a lot of time on it, but perhaps changing the stop loss every 24 hours to 10 points below the current might yield even better results?
I appreciate the real time log of this, it allows me a much better understanding of the strategy.
shady inc
Footballguy
That $7.95 commission really prevents someone with a small bankroll from trying out the weekly strategy. If you started with $500, you'd be negative before you new it just because the commissions would eat up your money.siffoin said:
i think you could get away with doing the monthly sector rotation starting at $500 b/c you can avoid the fee after 30 days
siffoin
Footballguy
Pro-Tip: Don't attempt anything I post here with a bankroll of $500. Lets call these posts "educational".That $7.95 commission really prevents someone with a small bankroll from trying out the weekly strategy. If you started with $500, you'd be negative before you new it just because the commissions would eat up your money.siffoin said:
i think you could get away with doing the monthly sector rotation starting at $500 b/c you can avoid the fee after 30 days
jason12vb
Footballguy
Couple of question for ya Siff for those of us following or considering your Piker method.
1) If someone were not able to get an entry point when you did...is there a technical chart or two you can suggest that would help us determine if it's still worth getting in or not? I realize your charting methods are your own technical formulas and not standard, but are there widely accepted ones you put some faith in?
2) How long does it generally take for one of your trends to break down? An hour, 4 hours, overnight... (i.e. how long after you enter a position is it not even worth looking at?)
I find it interesting that your wins, on average, take a dip of 3.5 points before going up 15 points in the end. Also, roughly 33% of your wins take a dip of 5 points or more at some point. (shows how important dedicated technical trading is and gives us wanting to learn by following a time cushion we can get in)
I'm thinking in the case if I were to get in at a better price than you (what the max is is TBD, thinking that 3.5 specified above), I'd set my limit at 15 from my entry point, but my loss at 10 from yours (so my loss might be 8 instead of 10)...I just can't decide what the best strategy would be from the other side of your entry. Even if I were to get in 10 minutes after you, that might be 2 points...so I lean towards setting my limit at yours, then setting my loss at 2/3s of my limit. My thinking is to take the 15 even if your trend says I can get a few more, but limit the losses.
1) If someone were not able to get an entry point when you did...is there a technical chart or two you can suggest that would help us determine if it's still worth getting in or not? I realize your charting methods are your own technical formulas and not standard, but are there widely accepted ones you put some faith in?
2) How long does it generally take for one of your trends to break down? An hour, 4 hours, overnight... (i.e. how long after you enter a position is it not even worth looking at?)
I find it interesting that your wins, on average, take a dip of 3.5 points before going up 15 points in the end. Also, roughly 33% of your wins take a dip of 5 points or more at some point. (shows how important dedicated technical trading is and gives us wanting to learn by following a time cushion we can get in)
I'm thinking in the case if I were to get in at a better price than you (what the max is is TBD, thinking that 3.5 specified above), I'd set my limit at 15 from my entry point, but my loss at 10 from yours (so my loss might be 8 instead of 10)...I just can't decide what the best strategy would be from the other side of your entry. Even if I were to get in 10 minutes after you, that might be 2 points...so I lean towards setting my limit at yours, then setting my loss at 2/3s of my limit. My thinking is to take the 15 even if your trend says I can get a few more, but limit the losses.
siffoin
Footballguy
jason12vb
Footballguy
Thanks for all, but in response to this...my intentions are not to try to get in at a better price than you, just realizing that it's not very likely that I get in at the same time you do as the swing can be +/- a couple points pretty quickly. Just trying to define clear rules and not be greedy. I certainly don't want to rub you the wrong way, so if your opinion is that we should go after that same 15/10 split even if we're 2 points off your entry point then so be it...but you hit the nail on the head with yesterday's peak and if one got in two points later than you they'd be sitting on a possible loser right now instead of a 13 point winner. Just seemed logical to me to that if I were to cap the wins on one side, I'd also need to cap the losses on the other side. Ideally I'd get in at the same parameters as you...but that's not going to happen every time.
Sand
Footballguy
LHUCKS? That you?
Seriously, though, my browser keeps drifting off to find the current price of USO. Getting very tempting...
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Rocket Fuel, just die... Kill yourselves, don't pass go, don't collect $200 dollars, just die!
Drifter
Footballguy
Playing the dips and highs on XOP and BIOYF continue to make for a Merry Christmas. BIOFY seems to be losing momentum though so I'm likely not going to add an more position until something happens to bring it back.
XOP, however, seems to continue to be as reliable as clockwork over the last 30ish days.
XOP, however, seems to continue to be as reliable as clockwork over the last 30ish days.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'm 100% invested right now, but will be getting some cash into the portfolios around year-end. I have one name and one name only that I'm going to be adding to aggressively and it's Vogogo. I know there's a bunch of smart folks that think crypto-currency is a fraud or a Ponzi scheme destined to crumble, but as far as I know, Vogogo is the only publicly traded processor of these goofy things and there's a chit ton of money pouring into the sector by Silicon Valley and other deep pockets looking for ways to play in this space. I think there's some catalysts ahead that will take the stock higher and at $3.50 a throw, I'm likely to take a nice sized swing at this one when cash comes in. Currently a 4% position for me personally and a nice sized position for our funds.
And I won't be selling a single Amaya share either. I staunchly believe this will be a $50 stock in 2015.
And I won't be selling a single Amaya share either. I staunchly believe this will be a $50 stock in 2015.
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
lol
"How do you make people stop caring about New Jesey in a heartbeat?"
"How do you make people stop caring about New Jesey in a heartbeat?"
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
For those of us doing siff's sector rotation, he posted a series of tweets last night that he was modifying the rotation rules going forward.
I'll let him come in here and give the details as he'll explain the context a whole lot better than I could, but the basic gist is that 50% of the rotation will go to $SPY (and 50% to that month's top sector), provided the market signals an overall bull market.
I'll let him come in here and give the details as he'll explain the context a whole lot better than I could, but the basic gist is that 50% of the rotation will go to $SPY (and 50% to that month's top sector), provided the market signals an overall bull market.
siffoin
Footballguy
I'm not sure I can explain it any better than that.
Currently the strategy is 100% invested into $IJR (Ishare S&P Small-Cap ETF). On the next rotation -likely in December- this strategy will invest 50% into $SPY (I might actually use $IVV, but the point is: in a bull market 50% of the fund is always invested into SP500 )...and 50% into whatever the Top Sector is for December. If on a month $IVV is the top Sector 100% of the fund would be dedicated to SP500 ETF. Other months would be a 50:50 split.
The scan from December moving forward will be as follows:
1) Overall Market Trend - If Trend is Bullish 100% of this strategy will be invested. 50% into SP500 + 50% into Top Sector. If Trend is Bearish 100% of strategy will be in cash.
2) If Mkt is Bullish- a second scan based on price and momentum will be run to determine the top sector for the following month- Universe of sectors include: $ADRE; $EFA; $IEF; IJH; IJR; and $IVV.
3) The Top Sector will also be examined to determine if it is also in a current Bull Trend. There are rare cases when the Top Sector is not Bullish. In that instance that portion of the portfolio (50%) will go to a cash position. One any given month the allocation of this strategy could be: 50% $SPY + 50% Top Sector; 50% $SPY + 50% Cash; or 100% Cash.
4) All moves within this portfolio take place on the last trading day of the month - near the close. Obviously each individual following this strategy will have a slightly different entry and exit. For record keeping purposes I'll update my website with the price on the close. But I will also include my specific entries on a separate spreadsheet.
5) Moving forward on the last trading day of the month I will also include price points where I believe the long term trend turns bearish. This will be for both the $SPY and for the Top Sector. However - once a position is entered that position is held until the last trading day of the month. October 2014 is a great example why it is better to wait till the end of the month. I'm including the "zone" where the trend might flip as further information.
6) The Steelhead Top Sector Rotation Strategy is posted here and elsewhere for informational purposes only. Trading involves risk and this strategy is not for everyone. Though I believe no one has more interest in your money than you do- they tell me I should let you know that it would be wise to consult a financial adviser for all your investing needs prior to making any investment decision. There are some great financial advisers here at FBG.
The last trading day of the month is Fri - and it is a holiday shortened trading day. I have a pretty good idea of what the top sector for December will be, and should know with 99% certainty after the close tomorrow.
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siffoin
Footballguy
SH Sector Rotation has underperformed (slightly) the $SPY for the past 3 years. When you add in the capital gains on ST moves it diminishes the return even more. This adjustment essentially keeps pace with the $SPY in this current market environment while giving it an opportunity to participate if one sector gets really hot.
Will still go 100% to cash in a bear market. That's why I'll provide a "line in the sand" price point each month.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Good info, thanks Siff...
siffoin
Footballguy
Did anyone do this? We've got about a double at this point on theThe trader in me likes this idea:why don't you buy a put then?For a few sentences that must have been pretty compelling as the thought of shorting entered my head immediately after reading it.They will not exist in a few years. Period.I have never been high on NFLX, unfortunately
But I don't know about the valuation of 0. The price point is still light years ahead of what these others are offering. Imagine a standalone HBO, then Showtime, then Skinamax... The costs for NFLX will still keep a loyal following.
They'll end up being like the MetroPCS of TV services. At some point when their stock is priced more into reality, somebody will prob scoop them up.
They rely on the studios to feed them movies. First HBO starts this streaming, then the studios realize they can just stream the stuff themselves and undercut HBO on everything but their originals. Studios charge higher rates, the ISPS (controlled by the studios) charge higher rates to pass through, plus competition from networks and other outlets content to give away programming for free, and boom. It's over. HBO was way out in front of this trend a decade ago with original stuff. Now, it's payday.
Think blockbuster. Because that's where they will be sharing a place with soon enough.
I would be too scared though, getting caught on the wrong side of this is devastating. I've actually posted numerous times in the last few months about how I would love to short Tesla (although I think their future is different than what you outline for NFLX) just due to an insane valuation right now. But my feelings there are the same as this one and the end result of getting caught on the wrong side is devastation.
I'd want a some kind of bounce towards $380ish. I have a target of $220-$270. Will have to see how they price the options in the morning and over the next few days if it does move higher- I'd be willing to risk $1 and hope to make $4+ - the pricing is key - the option game ain't what it used to be.
So if for example $NFLX moved to $380...and the Jan $350 Put was priced at $15 or less - I'm in at that point because my expectation of an $80+ move (price at $270 or lower) gives me a risk reward of $1 to make $5+ (my $15 put will be worth $80+)
Be looking at a Jan or March 2015 expiration.
I basing the $220-$270 target on support levels over multiple time frames in conjunction with a bearish trend for NFLX (which has been bearish since late Sept at around $440) and a bearish trend for the overall markets.
So that's the plan now we just need to exercise a little patience and see if the plan unfolds accordingly.
Edit: I have the January 350's not the March and it is in a Spread position.
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Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
One clarifying question on the cash position, siff. Isn't a bear market partly what the IEF sector is for? Going through your backtesting, during the 2008-09 crash the rotation was making money (or at least, heavily reducing equity losses) by being in bonds/IEF.With the bull/bear "line in the sand" as the first test, when would you ever rotate into IEF?
ETA- not against adding "cash" as a rotation sector in theory (I believe I floated that idea out there many pages ago), but I always looked at it as an emergency "every sector looks bad" ejector seat option. Maybe you're saying the same thing but I wanted to make sure.
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Drifter
Footballguy
So Sif, what are you thinking for December? My simple analysis shows EFA with IVV, maybe IJH coming up 2nd depending on the last couple of trading days.
Another way of looking at it shows me ADRE or IJR but I think that method is too dependent on the rebound from their poor numbers in September.
Another way of looking at it shows me ADRE or IJR but I think that method is too dependent on the rebound from their poor numbers in September.
Drifter
Footballguy
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siffoin
Footballguy
$IEF tends to be the default sector in a bear market but I said "Cash" in a bear market to be open to the possibility that one day all of the Sector ETFs are in a bear trend including $IEF. The back testing is great, but we're investing moving forward in time. This is one reason for the adjustment into a 50% position in SP500 ETF ($SPY or $IVV). I don't have a great understanding of the bond market in general, but I can foresee a scenario where if the market actually turned bearish - the bond market would play a heavy role in that turn of the trend. I hope that answers your question - I'm not trying to be vague. Just stating that in real life with this strategy there are 7 honest potential holdings ($ADRE; $EFA; $IEF; $IJH; $IJR; $IVV & Cash). I don't view this as a departure in any way from all that I've written about the strategy.
siffoin
Footballguy
Yes. I've 99% confident that this will rotate into $IVV on Friday.
That Bull/Bear line in the sand will be around 1990 of the $SPX. Meaning if end of December $SPX is below 1990ish I'd consider the IT to be Bearish. The 1990 number is rising but for now that is the "oh ####" zone we're looking at.
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GoBirds
Footballguy
Im watching COP looking for the time to get in......when does your crystal ball tell you to pull the trigger?
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Platinum stocks down something like 30-40% the last couple days due to this lawsuit alleging price fixing.
kevzilla
Footballguy
Bought FLEX for my brokerage account and REGN for my IRA today. FLEX at $11 is really cheap and I anticipate it will be more fairly valued in 12-18 months, but I will sell at $17 regardless of the timeframe. REGN is insanely expensive on trailing earnings, but the pipeline is one of the best in biotech. I now have 53% of my (very small) IRA in REGN and WWAV, so I'll be looking for dividend aristocrats to buy for the remainder.
Sand
Footballguy
Wow. Saw HSBC mixed up in this. Shocker - they got booted out of the drug cartel money laundering business, so they had to do something to keep their profit margins up.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Just read the Forbes article about your boy, GM. Not sure if I'm impressed or if I want to sell all.
General Malaise
Footballguy
He's wired differently than most, that's for sure. What he pulled off was incredible, IMO.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
There's no doubt about that, but it's hard to tell if he's operating at such a different level than everybody else that there's no way to stop him or if he's just an incredibly tenacious dog who's looking to chase the next squirrel until he kills it, with no idea where he's going long-term.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'll start to worry if/when HE sells stock. For a kid who didn't come from money, slept on park benches in outdoor hockey venues and quit college, I find it astonishing that he hasn't cashed in at least some of his chips for personal gain. We asked him why and he simply said "now is not the time to sell". Good enough for me to hang on and my firm is doing the same.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Your Mother's Twin Sister
Footballguy
AMEX
They are introducing third party protocol to allow more mom and pops to accept AMEX cards.
They are introducing third party protocol to allow more mom and pops to accept AMEX cards.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
