Stock Thread (38 Viewers)

[siffoin]

Could be priced at 0 in a few years. Seriously.

I have never been high on NFLX, unfortunately

But I don't know about the valuation of 0. The price point is still light years ahead of what these others are offering. Imagine a standalone HBO, then Showtime, then Skinamax... The costs for NFLX will still keep a loyal following.

They'll end up being like the MetroPCS of TV services. At some point when their stock is priced more into reality, somebody will prob scoop them up.

They will not exist in a few years. Period.

They rely on the studios to feed them movies. First HBO starts this streaming, then the studios realize they can just stream the stuff themselves and undercut HBO on everything but their originals. Studios charge higher rates, the ISPS (controlled by the studios) charge higher rates to pass through, plus competition from networks and other outlets content to give away programming for free, and boom. It's over. HBO was way out in front of this trend a decade ago with original stuff. Now, it's payday.

Think blockbuster. Because that's where they will be sharing a place with soon enough.

For a few sentences that must have been pretty compelling as the thought of shorting entered my head immediately after reading it.

I would be too scared though, getting caught on the wrong side of this is devastating. I've actually posted numerous times in the last few months about how I would love to short Tesla (although I think their future is different than what you outline for NFLX) just due to an insane valuation right now. But my feelings there are the same as this one and the end result of getting caught on the wrong side is devastation.

why don't you buy a put then?

The trader in me likes this idea:

I'd want a some kind of bounce towards $380ish. I have a target of $220-$270. Will have to see how they price the options in the morning and over the next few days if it does move higher- I'd be willing to risk $1 and hope to make $4+ - the pricing is key - the option game ain't what it used to be.

So if for example $NFLX moved to $380...and the Jan $350 Put was priced at $15 or less - I'm in at that point because my expectation of an $80+ move (price at $270 or lower) gives me a risk reward of $1 to make $5+ (my $15 put will be worth $80+)

Be looking at a Jan or March 2015 expiration.

I basing the $220-$270 target on support levels over multiple time frames in conjunction with a bearish trend for NFLX (which has been bearish since late Sept at around $440) and a bearish trend for the overall markets.

So that's the plan now we just need to exercise a little patience and see if the plan unfolds accordingly.

Did anyone do this? We've got about a double at this point on the March 350's.

Edit: I have the January 350's not the March and it is in a Spread position.

Closed this position out this morning. It was a 350/330 Jan Put Spread. $NFLX still looks weak, but I'll bank the win and move on.

 

[GoBirds]

Bought more CVX. Can't pass up a rock solid 4% dividend. This is a fire sale. I hope it goes down to 90 so I can back up the truck.

Thinking about pulling the trigger on COP today but wonder if there is more pain to come.

 

[Sand]

Bought more CVX. Can't pass up a rock solid 4% dividend. This is a fire sale. I hope it goes down to 90 so I can back up the truck.

Thinking about pulling the trigger on COP today but wonder if there is more pain to come.

I have no preconceived notions that I can time this. I just know that CVX is bumping up against the dividend rate seen at the low in 2009. COP is at its highest dividend rate of the last 30 years. These are companies with payout ratios in the 30-40% range. I can live with some price pain to lock in great cashflow going forward. I know in 5 years these will be winners. So I just keep nibbling.

 

[GoBirds]

Bought more CVX. Can't pass up a rock solid 4% dividend. This is a fire sale. I hope it goes down to 90 so I can back up the truck.

Thinking about pulling the trigger on COP today but wonder if there is more pain to come.

I have no preconceived notions that I can time this. I just know that CVX is bumping up against the dividend rate seen at the low in 2009. COP is at its highest dividend rate of the last 30 years. These are companies with payout ratios in the 30-40% range. I can live with some price pain to lock in great cashflow going forward. I know in 5 years these will be winners. So I just keep nibbling.

Good Point.

 

[itriple]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I’m very selective. But recently I went very heavy in Exact Sciences (EXAS). Was approved for Colon Cancer screening through a stool sample (no more colonoscopy). Their approved Medicare reimbursement is $503 a test and their margin on this is huge. Currently set-up to test over a million tests a year. A colonoscopy besides being horrible costs over $2k.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]This is the test that just about everyone in the country over 60 should be taking. And they just started marketing it. Only good news will be coming out in the next few years as more and more providers administer it.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]This isn’t a stock that is going to double in the next week. It is one you buy and it will be worth 3-5x as much in 2 years. Plus they have 2 other test up for approval. I currently know 4 people that work at this place and get a lot of info from them.[/SIZE]

Hope someone listened to me on this. Was $22.50 Closed $29.65 today 32% in a month isnt bad. There are more and more providers offering this test. Massive value and possible aquistion target.

 

[General Malaise]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I’m very selective. But recently I went very heavy in Exact Sciences (EXAS). Was approved for Colon Cancer screening through a stool sample (no more colonoscopy). Their approved Medicare reimbursement is $503 a test and their margin on this is huge. Currently set-up to test over a million tests a year. A colonoscopy besides being horrible costs over $2k.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]This is the test that just about everyone in the country over 60 should be taking. And they just started marketing it. Only good news will be coming out in the next few years as more and more providers administer it.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]This isn’t a stock that is going to double in the next week. It is one you buy and it will be worth 3-5x as much in 2 years. Plus they have 2 other test up for approval. I currently know 4 people that work at this place and get a lot of info from them.[/SIZE]

Hope someone listened to me on this. Was $22.50 Closed $29.65 today 32% in a month isnt bad. There are more and more providers offering this test. Massive value and possible aquistion target.

That's a name I haven't heard in a long long time. My boss was long this one back in 2004. Called it "Poop in a Box".

Nice job on this one. I'm reading an article we have in our archives from 2004.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I followed EXAS for awhile. It was around 15 when they released a study that I thought had a pretty high level of false positives and stopped following. I must have missed something, because it took off. Glad you made some money on it, itriple.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I'm 100% invested right now, but will be getting some cash into the portfolios around year-end. I have one name and one name only that I'm going to be adding to aggressively and it's Vogogo. I know there's a bunch of smart folks that think crypto-currency is a fraud or a Ponzi scheme destined to crumble, but as far as I know, Vogogo is the only publicly traded processor of these goofy things and there's a chit ton of money pouring into the sector by Silicon Valley and other deep pockets looking for ways to play in this space. I think there's some catalysts ahead that will take the stock higher and at $3.50 a throw, I'm likely to take a nice sized swing at this one when cash comes in. Currently a 4% position for me personally and a nice sized position for our funds.

And I won't be selling a single Amaya share either. I staunchly believe this will be a $50 stock in 2015.

Down almost 15% today???

Down 28% today.

 

[Brony]

Not sure where catching-a-falling-knife ends and dollar-cost-averaging begins, but I'm starting to add more OIL here. Looking at a 3 to 5 year horizon on this.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I'm 100% invested right now, but will be getting some cash into the portfolios around year-end. I have one name and one name only that I'm going to be adding to aggressively and it's Vogogo. I know there's a bunch of smart folks that think crypto-currency is a fraud or a Ponzi scheme destined to crumble, but as far as I know, Vogogo is the only publicly traded processor of these goofy things and there's a chit ton of money pouring into the sector by Silicon Valley and other deep pockets looking for ways to play in this space. I think there's some catalysts ahead that will take the stock higher and at $3.50 a throw, I'm likely to take a nice sized swing at this one when cash comes in. Currently a 4% position for me personally and a nice sized position for our funds.

And I won't be selling a single Amaya share either. I staunchly believe this will be a $50 stock in 2015.

Down almost 15% today???

Down 28% today.

Any insight on what's going on here, GM?

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Cashed out my TNH a couple of days ago, thank God, but still managed to lose $500 or so after dividends.

So this looks like the real correction after that fake out a couple of months ago doesn't it?

 

[General Malaise]

I'm 100% invested right now, but will be getting some cash into the portfolios around year-end. I have one name and one name only that I'm going to be adding to aggressively and it's Vogogo. I know there's a bunch of smart folks that think crypto-currency is a fraud or a Ponzi scheme destined to crumble, but as far as I know, Vogogo is the only publicly traded processor of these goofy things and there's a chit ton of money pouring into the sector by Silicon Valley and other deep pockets looking for ways to play in this space. I think there's some catalysts ahead that will take the stock higher and at $3.50 a throw, I'm likely to take a nice sized swing at this one when cash comes in. Currently a 4% position for me personally and a nice sized position for our funds.

And I won't be selling a single Amaya share either. I staunchly believe this will be a $50 stock in 2015.

Down almost 15% today???

Down 28% today.

Any insight on what's going on here, GM?

No insight other than the Canadian markets are getting pummeled across the board. Easy to forget how painful down days can be when you enjoy the green days so much. Our portfolios are getting annihilated.

 

[Sand]

What's going on with metals? Silver?

Bump? What's a good way to add some silver to my holdings? Physical silver? Go to a coin store or buy online?

SLV if you wanted to go that route.

 

[Sand]

Bought more CVX. Can't pass up a rock solid 4% dividend. This is a fire sale. I hope it goes down to 90 so I can back up the truck.

Thinking about pulling the trigger on COP today but wonder if there is more pain to come.

I have no preconceived notions that I can time this. I just know that CVX is bumping up against the dividend rate seen at the low in 2009. COP is at its highest dividend rate of the last 30 years. These are companies with payout ratios in the 30-40% range. I can live with some price pain to lock in great cashflow going forward. I know in 5 years these will be winners. So I just keep nibbling.

XOM just hit 3% dividend, something it hasn't done since 1996 (they changed their dividend strategy then). Just peaked a bit higher than after the 09 crash. Initiated a small position here and will double down a couple times if opportunity permits.

 

[Yenrub]

.

 

[GoBirds]

So got a mailer offering Kiplinger for a year for $8...has to be worth it right? Anyone read it? I'm a money magazine and Bogle follower, should I take the next step?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Our portfolios are getting annihilated.

Today must really be fun.

 

[Rohn Jambo]

Did not break 300...

 

[Rohn Jambo]

Did not break 300...

Yet

 

[General Malaise]

Our portfolios are getting annihilated.

Today must really be fun.

I lost more today than I spent on two years of college.

 

[Rohn Jambo]

Our portfolios are getting annihilated.

Today must really be fun.

I lost more today than I spent on two years of college.

You'll be okay as long as you hold onto the stocks. What goes down will always go back up in time.

 

[General Malaise]

Our portfolios are getting annihilated.

Today must really be fun.

I lost more today than I spent on two years of college.

You'll be okay as long as you hold onto the stocks. What goes down will always goes back up in time.

I feel all better now.

 

[eoMMan]

So got a mailer offering Kiplinger for a year for $8...has to be worth it right? Anyone read it? I'm a money magazine and Bogle follower, should I take the next step?

It's okay I guess for toilet reading. It's gone downhill over the past few years. I use to be a subscriber but now just buy an issue periodically.

 

[eoMMan]

Bought more CVX. Can't pass up a rock solid 4% dividend. This is a fire sale. I hope it goes down to 90 so I can back up the truck.

Thinking about pulling the trigger on COP today but wonder if there is more pain to come.

I have no preconceived notions that I can time this. I just know that CVX is bumping up against the dividend rate seen at the low in 2009. COP is at its highest dividend rate of the last 30 years. These are companies with payout ratios in the 30-40% range. I can live with some price pain to lock in great cashflow going forward. I know in 5 years these will be winners. So I just keep nibbling.

XOM just hit 3% dividend, something it hasn't done since 1996 (they changed their dividend strategy then). Just peaked a bit higher than after the 09 crash. Initiated a small position here and will double down a couple times if opportunity permits.

I love most of the big oil companies here. If I had a few extra million, I'd put it in oil/energy and have like a fubillion in due time.

 

[Rohn Jambo]

Our portfolios are getting annihilated.

Today must really be fun.

I lost more today than I spent on two years of college.

You'll be okay as long as you hold onto the stocks. What goes down will always goes back up in time.

I feel all better now.

My investment philosophy is to look at the forrest and not the trees.

 

[General Malaise]

Our portfolios are getting annihilated.

Today must really be fun.

I lost more today than I spent on two years of college.

You'll be okay as long as you hold onto the stocks. What goes down will always goes back up in time.

I feel all better now.

My investment philosophy is to look at the forrest and not the trees.

And mine now is "I'll retire when I die".

 

[Rohn Jambo]

Our portfolios are getting annihilated.

Today must really be fun.

I lost more today than I spent on two years of college.

You'll be okay as long as you hold onto the stocks. What goes down will always goes back up in time.

I feel all better now.

My investment philosophy is to look at the forrest and not the trees.

And mine now is "I'll retire when I die".

People can always make do no matter how much money they have. Check out the other creatures in the animal kingdom. None of them have money.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Our portfolios are getting annihilated.

Today must really be fun.

I lost more today than I spent on two years of college.

You'll be okay as long as you hold onto the stocks. What goes down will always goes back up in time.

I feel all better now.

My investment philosophy is to look at the forrest and not the trees.

And mine now is "I'll retire when I die".

People can always make do no matter how much money they have. Check out the other creatures in the animal kingdom. None of them have money.

Sure, but if GM crawls inside some couple's picnic basket, eats all their strawberries, drinks all their champagne, and poops on their napkins, the kind men from the Portland PD aren't just going to let him run back into the woods to sleep it off.

 

[kevzilla]

Our portfolios are getting annihilated.

Today must really be fun.

I lost more today than I spent on two years of college.

You'll be okay as long as you hold onto the stocks. What goes down will always goes back up in time.

I feel all better now.

My investment philosophy is to look at the forrest and not the trees.

And mine now is "I'll retire when I die".

People can always make do no matter how much money they have. Check out the other creatures in the animal kingdom. None of them have money.

Sure, but if GM crawls inside some couple's picnic basket, eats all their strawberries, drinks all their champagne, and poops on their napkins, the kind men from the Portland PD aren't just going to let him run back into the woods to sleep it off.

That was 2009. It was tough for everybody.

 

[The Ref]

I'm really really interested in what the floor is going to be for oil. Never thought we would see gas with a 1 handle again but the way it's going I wouldn't rule it out.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Panic?

 

[Redwes25]

Panic?

Think they are trying to stop one. Oil price drop has hurt Russia but tied to the Sanctions, which makes it difficult/impossible for Russian company's to access foreign markets is making it a double whammy. Sucks for people of Russia but Putin has brought it on himself.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I'm really really interested in what the floor is going to be for oil. Never thought we would see gas with a 1 handle again but the way it's going I wouldn't rule it out.

$1.99

 

[sbonomo]

That is amazing.....of course i just moved to an area where i rely on public transportation and don't drive that much anymore.

 

[Das Boot]

I'm checking out used Hummers on craigslist.

Thanks Obama!

 

[fantasycurse42]

Been watching UCO this month, right now it looks like it is retesting it's bottom from earlier this month, if it does bounce here, I feel like there is strong upside here.

I think under $50 and I'm just pouring everything I have into oil for long term. Even if it keeps going down, eventually it has to rebound, no? I mean we need oil, this isn't like saying XYZ companies stock has fallen, it will rise, this is ####### oil, we need this stuff.

 

[Todem]

Went in hard this morning on:

COP

BP

CVX

HP

TOT

RDS'A

BHP

CAT

GE

FCX

OXY

SU

DVN

WPZ

HAL

LINE

ACMP

PBT

This is a once in 5 year buying opportunity for oil and oil related stocks/miners/industrial's

15 year low on price to book on COP/CVX/BP....it's insane.

2 years from now 30 plus percent gains plus your dividend yield of close to 5-6% while you wait.

 

[Todem]

Been watching UCO this month, right now it looks like it is retesting it's bottom from earlier this month, if it does bounce here, I feel like there is strong upside here.

I think under $50 and I'm just pouring everything I have into oil for long term. Even if it keeps going down, eventually it has to rebound, no? I mean we need oil, this isn't like saying XYZ companies stock has fallen, it will rise, this is ####### oil, we need this stuff.

Did it today. I don't care if it goes down another 10% from here....I never time bottoms. But this feels like a bottom to me in all the years I have been doing this. This is a sector that is on a fire sale.

Get in and hold for the long haul. Lot's of money to be made.

 

[fantasycurse42]

This S&P losing streak is getting painful!

Siff, I know you were adjusting the rules for the sector rotation. IEF appears to be the only winner as of now in December. If the month were to continue how it is now, do the rules call for 50% investment there and the other 50% in S&P? Or would it be 50% there and the other in cash?

 

[siffoin]

This S&P losing streak is getting painful!

Siff, I know you were adjusting the rules for the sector rotation. IEF appears to be the only winner as of now in December. If the month were to continue how it is now, do the rules call for 50% investment there and the other 50% in S&P? Or would it be 50% there and the other in cash?

Well if the LT market is bullish at the end of this month at least 50% will remain in $IVV. But it's quite possible the bull market has topped. We're just going to have to wait and see. There is always the risk of buying at the high, but you only know that in hindsight.

I did post an article a month or so ago giving many technical reasons why a top was potentially at hand. We are really at a critical level of support at the close of today. I'd like to say we'll bounce from here...I kind of think we do...but there isn't a single indicator I have suggesting that. And any bounce might be relatively short lived.

 

[fantasycurse42]

This S&P losing streak is getting painful!

Siff, I know you were adjusting the rules for the sector rotation. IEF appears to be the only winner as of now in December. If the month were to continue how it is now, do the rules call for 50% investment there and the other 50% in S&P? Or would it be 50% there and the other in cash?

Well if the LT market is bullish at the end of this month at least 50% will remain in $IVV. But it's quite possible the bull market has topped. We're just going to have to wait and see. There is always the risk of buying at the high, but you only know that in hindsight.

I did post an article a month or so ago giving many technical reasons why a top was potentially at hand. We are really at a critical level of support at the close of today. I'd like to say we'll bounce from here...I kind of think we do...but there isn't a single indicator I have suggesting that. And any bounce might be relatively short lived.

Thanks Siff... I read your twitter about $198, watching closely.

 

[Johnnymac]

Been watching UCO this month, right now it looks like it is retesting it's bottom from earlier this month, if it does bounce here, I feel like there is strong upside here.

I think under $50 and I'm just pouring everything I have into oil for long term. Even if it keeps going down, eventually it has to rebound, no? I mean we need oil, this isn't like saying XYZ companies stock has fallen, it will rise, this is ####### oil, we need this stuff.

Did it today. I don't care if it goes down another 10% from here....I never time bottoms. But this feels like a bottom to me in all the years I have been doing this. This is a sector that is on a fire sale.

Get in and hold for the long haul. Lot's of money to be made.

Agree, I couldn't hold out any longer. This has to be the bottom. It's close enough for me anyway.

 

[The Ref]

Been watching UCO this month, right now it looks like it is retesting it's bottom from earlier this month, if it does bounce here, I feel like there is strong upside here.

I think under $50 and I'm just pouring everything I have into oil for long term. Even if it keeps going down, eventually it has to rebound, no? I mean we need oil, this isn't like saying XYZ companies stock has fallen, it will rise, this is ####### oil, we need this stuff.

Did it today. I don't care if it goes down another 10% from here....I never time bottoms. But this feels like a bottom to me in all the years I have been doing this. This is a sector that is on a fire sale.Get in and hold for the long haul. Lot's of money to be made.

Agree, I couldn't hold out any longer. This has to be the bottom. It's close enough for me anyway.

Personally I'm trying to figure out how anyone can say the bottom is close to in.

 

[GoBirds]

Been watching UCO this month, right now it looks like it is retesting it's bottom from earlier this month, if it does bounce here, I feel like there is strong upside here.

I think under $50 and I'm just pouring everything I have into oil for long term. Even if it keeps going down, eventually it has to rebound, no? I mean we need oil, this isn't like saying XYZ companies stock has fallen, it will rise, this is ####### oil, we need this stuff.

Did it today. I don't care if it goes down another 10% from here....I never time bottoms. But this feels like a bottom to me in all the years I have been doing this. This is a sector that is on a fire sale.Get in and hold for the long haul. Lot's of money to be made.

Agree, I couldn't hold out any longer. This has to be the bottom. It's close enough for me anyway.

Personally I'm trying to figure out how anyone can say the bottom is close to in.

"This has to be the bottom"........yeah be careful.

 

[shader]

My opinion on oil is that you only buy now if you can afford to sweat out a drop of another 10-20% (or more). If it's longterm, buy and walk away. Oil is a finite resource. One day it will be way over 100 dollars a barrel again.

 

[rascal]

IMO the bear will last as long as Putin can.

 

[rascal]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/four-oil-stocks-to-buy-now-2014-12-15

 

[Todem]

My opinion on oil is that you only buy now if you can afford to sweat out a drop of another 10-20% (or more). If it's longterm, buy and walk away. Oil is a finite resource. One day it will be way over 100 dollars a barrel again.

Exactly my point. It very well may go down another 10%...or not. Does not matter to me. I am strapping in for a long term investment and am 100% confident I will see handsome returns 12-24 months from now. Even if took 3 years....don't care. 5 years. Don't care. 5% yields while I wait is fine with me. These stocks are so cheap again. Oil can rocket back to 100 just as fast as it went down. I don't expect that. But it can happen within 12 months easily.

I think a major consolidation will take place here shortly. The Saudi's know exactly what they are doing here. Russia is panicking , South America is doing the same. They built budgets on $80-$90 a barrel oil. Saudi's are putting the squeeze on emerging market oil companies. The big boys will scoop up the credit stressed small players here soon if this keeps up. Once that consolidation takes place, the Saudi's will cut production to drive the prices back up.

Too many companies out there drilling. Supply is higher than demand. That will change over the next 12 months.

 

[Sand]

Been watching UCO this month, right now it looks like it is retesting it's bottom from earlier this month, if it does bounce here, I feel like there is strong upside here.

I think under $50 and I'm just pouring everything I have into oil for long term. Even if it keeps going down, eventually it has to rebound, no? I mean we need oil, this isn't like saying XYZ companies stock has fallen, it will rise, this is ####### oil, we need this stuff.

Did it today. I don't care if it goes down another 10% from here....I never time bottoms. But this feels like a bottom to me in all the years I have been doing this. This is a sector that is on a fire sale.Get in and hold for the long haul. Lot's of money to be made.

Agree, I couldn't hold out any longer. This has to be the bottom. It's close enough for me anyway.

Personally I'm trying to figure out how anyone can say the bottom is close to in.

I don't think we're terribly far from oil bottom, but who knows if stocks will track that. They may go lower if this becomes a malaise. If it does become a malaise there will be a lot of dividend reinvestment happening.

That said I bought more CVX and COP first thing this morning (so I caught a one day bottom - woohoo!). Just nibbling away - staying with the big boys that shed lots of cash.

 

[Mario Kart]

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vgpmx vs. http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vgenx

Roth IRA contribution. Which one?