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I don't understand precious metals markets. There is no rational basis for the price of gold. There is for energy. So I vote oil, but that has to do with what I understand and what I don't more than anything else.
I'm looking to get into either sector via the two funds posted. I've cooled on precious metals for now but seeing this drop in energy has steered me that way. I'm not sure how low it might go given what Putin as done. Gas prices (current in my area are $2.30) are supposed to go down to under $2 a gallon. If true, there is still time to wait a little however I'm thinking I need to jump in sooner than later since the oil has crashed in this last quarter. Knowing the world can sustain >$100 a barrel, this seems like a good place to jump in. Sure, $50 or even $40 would be better for me, you, whomever but how long will this crash?

Overall, I think a couple more days to see what Putin and Russia do will tell a little tale.

 
I don't understand precious metals markets. There is no rational basis for the price of gold. There is for energy. So I vote oil, but that has to do with what I understand and what I don't more than anything else.
I'm looking to get into either sector via the two funds posted. I've cooled on precious metals for now but seeing this drop in energy has steered me that way. I'm not sure how low it might go given what Putin as done. Gas prices (current in my area are $2.30) are supposed to go down to under $2 a gallon. If true, there is still time to wait a little however I'm thinking I need to jump in sooner than later since the oil has crashed in this last quarter. Knowing the world can sustain >$100 a barrel, this seems like a good place to jump in. Sure, $50 or even $40 would be better for me, you, whomever but how long will this crash?

Overall, I think a couple more days to see what Putin and Russia do will tell a little tale.
Gold and metals are a hedge. Oil and natural resources are a staple. The world can't function without it.

BTW the 5 year on that fund is dog crap. 10 year looks good though. But the 5 year is a red flag for me. 2009-2014 has been an incredible bull run for energy as well. They underperformed badly. Really bad...just keep that in mind.

I think you should buy 2-4 great names vs the fund. And I love mutual funds. But I think you will do better in some individual names vs a fund in this scenario.

Simply look at COP and CVX 5 and 10 year numbers compared to that fund.

Stark difference. Plus a far better yield.

 
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I don't understand precious metals markets. There is no rational basis for the price of gold. There is for energy. So I vote oil, but that has to do with what I understand and what I don't more than anything else.
I'm looking to get into either sector via the two funds posted. I've cooled on precious metals for now but seeing this drop in energy has steered me that way. I'm not sure how low it might go given what Putin as done. Gas prices (current in my area are $2.30) are supposed to go down to under $2 a gallon. If true, there is still time to wait a little however I'm thinking I need to jump in sooner than later since the oil has crashed in this last quarter. Knowing the world can sustain >$100 a barrel, this seems like a good place to jump in. Sure, $50 or even $40 would be better for me, you, whomever but how long will this crash?

Overall, I think a couple more days to see what Putin and Russia do will tell a little tale.
Gold and metals are a hedge. Oil and natural resources are a staple. The world can't function without it.

BTW the 5 year on that fund is dog crap. 10 year looks good though. But the 5 year is a red flag for me. 2009-2014 has been an incredible bull run for energy as well. They underperformed badly. Really bad...just keep that in mind.

I think you should buy 2-4 great names vs the fund. And I love mutual funds. But I think you will do better in some individual names vs a fund in this scenario.

Simply look at COP and CVX 5 and 10 year numbers compared to that fund.

Stark difference. Plus a far better yield.
It's for a Roth IRA... so, I'm not sure if I can maintain the Roth status with individual stocks. Although, if I could, I'd buy some Apple as well in my 2014 contribution.

 
I don't understand precious metals markets. There is no rational basis for the price of gold. There is for energy. So I vote oil, but that has to do with what I understand and what I don't more than anything else.
I'm looking to get into either sector via the two funds posted. I've cooled on precious metals for now but seeing this drop in energy has steered me that way. I'm not sure how low it might go given what Putin as done. Gas prices (current in my area are $2.30) are supposed to go down to under $2 a gallon. If true, there is still time to wait a little however I'm thinking I need to jump in sooner than later since the oil has crashed in this last quarter. Knowing the world can sustain >$100 a barrel, this seems like a good place to jump in. Sure, $50 or even $40 would be better for me, you, whomever but how long will this crash?

Overall, I think a couple more days to see what Putin and Russia do will tell a little tale.
Gold and metals are a hedge. Oil and natural resources are a staple. The world can't function without it.

BTW the 5 year on that fund is dog crap. 10 year looks good though. But the 5 year is a red flag for me. 2009-2014 has been an incredible bull run for energy as well. They underperformed badly. Really bad...just keep that in mind.

I think you should buy 2-4 great names vs the fund. And I love mutual funds. But I think you will do better in some individual names vs a fund in this scenario.

Simply look at COP and CVX 5 and 10 year numbers compared to that fund.

Stark difference. Plus a far better yield.
It's for a Roth IRA... so, I'm not sure if I can maintain the Roth status with individual stocks. Although, if I could, I'd buy some Apple as well in my 2014 contribution.
You should have access to a trading desk with a simple Roth. If not transfer it to someone who does (Fidelity, etc.)

 
I don't understand precious metals markets. There is no rational basis for the price of gold. There is for energy. So I vote oil, but that has to do with what I understand and what I don't more than anything else.
I'm looking to get into either sector via the two funds posted. I've cooled on precious metals for now but seeing this drop in energy has steered me that way. I'm not sure how low it might go given what Putin as done. Gas prices (current in my area are $2.30) are supposed to go down to under $2 a gallon. If true, there is still time to wait a little however I'm thinking I need to jump in sooner than later since the oil has crashed in this last quarter. Knowing the world can sustain >$100 a barrel, this seems like a good place to jump in. Sure, $50 or even $40 would be better for me, you, whomever but how long will this crash?

Overall, I think a couple more days to see what Putin and Russia do will tell a little tale.
Gold and metals are a hedge. Oil and natural resources are a staple. The world can't function without it.

BTW the 5 year on that fund is dog crap. 10 year looks good though. But the 5 year is a red flag for me. 2009-2014 has been an incredible bull run for energy as well. They underperformed badly. Really bad...just keep that in mind.

I think you should buy 2-4 great names vs the fund. And I love mutual funds. But I think you will do better in some individual names vs a fund in this scenario.

Simply look at COP and CVX 5 and 10 year numbers compared to that fund.

Stark difference. Plus a far better yield.
It's for a Roth IRA... so, I'm not sure if I can maintain the Roth status with individual stocks. Although, if I could, I'd buy some Apple as well in my 2014 contribution.
You should have access to a trading desk with a simple Roth. If not transfer it to someone who does (Fidelity, etc.)
I have to call Vanguard tomorrow to find out whats what. The FAQ talks about upgrading to a Brokerage Account. Not sure if that is still considered a Roth IRA though so I have to get the skinny from them tomorrow evening.

 
I don't understand precious metals markets. There is no rational basis for the price of gold. There is for energy. So I vote oil, but that has to do with what I understand and what I don't more than anything else.
I'm looking to get into either sector via the two funds posted. I've cooled on precious metals for now but seeing this drop in energy has steered me that way. I'm not sure how low it might go given what Putin as done. Gas prices (current in my area are $2.30) are supposed to go down to under $2 a gallon. If true, there is still time to wait a little however I'm thinking I need to jump in sooner than later since the oil has crashed in this last quarter. Knowing the world can sustain >$100 a barrel, this seems like a good place to jump in. Sure, $50 or even $40 would be better for me, you, whomever but how long will this crash?

Overall, I think a couple more days to see what Putin and Russia do will tell a little tale.
Gold and metals are a hedge. Oil and natural resources are a staple. The world can't function without it.

BTW the 5 year on that fund is dog crap. 10 year looks good though. But the 5 year is a red flag for me. 2009-2014 has been an incredible bull run for energy as well. They underperformed badly. Really bad...just keep that in mind.

I think you should buy 2-4 great names vs the fund. And I love mutual funds. But I think you will do better in some individual names vs a fund in this scenario.

Simply look at COP and CVX 5 and 10 year numbers compared to that fund.

Stark difference. Plus a far better yield.
It's for a Roth IRA... so, I'm not sure if I can maintain the Roth status with individual stocks. Although, if I could, I'd buy some Apple as well in my 2014 contribution.
You can absolutely buy stocks in a Roth IRA. If Vanguard only gives you access to mutuals funds you need to open a Roth IRA at a Scott Trade, or any discount brokerage service that gives you access to buying stocks for a minimal cost.

In fact in a Roth IRA you should be looking at growth and income plays (stocks that will grow plus pay a good dividend) since all of this is tax deferred and tax free on distributions when you retire.

 
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Is it possible for this to become a new norm for oil? Even if it's short-term (Call it 3-5 years rather than 1)?

Slowing world economy, alternative fuels, more efficient vehicles, new technologies impacting supply.

Countries that could be positioned to be innovators are more consumers than suppliers. We've always focused on US dependence on foreign oil. Could the sudden US position of power wrt oil properly incentivize them to reduce their dependence on oil?

 
Is it possible for this to become a new norm for oil? Even if it's short-term (Call it 3-5 years rather than 1)?

Slowing world economy, alternative fuels, more efficient vehicles, new technologies impacting supply.

Countries that could be positioned to be innovators are more consumers than suppliers. We've always focused on US dependence on foreign oil. Could the sudden US position of power wrt oil properly incentivize them to reduce their dependence on oil?
Sure

 
In the last oil downturn I snapped up boatloads of oil royalty trusts. These things pay you monster dividends and the yield is nuts right after a commodities pullback. The tickers I remember off top of my head were SJT and SBR.

edit, current yield on those two is nearly 10%

 
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Is it possible for this to become a new norm for oil? Even if it's short-term (Call it 3-5 years rather than 1)?

Slowing world economy, alternative fuels, more efficient vehicles, new technologies impacting supply.

Countries that could be positioned to be innovators are more consumers than suppliers. We've always focused on US dependence on foreign oil. Could the sudden US position of power wrt oil properly incentivize them to reduce their dependence on oil?
It's possible, but I'm willing to bet that oil will go back up based on the greediness of those who control the supply and the fact that Americans (and ROW population) are live-for-today consumers of oil and generally pretty stupid. I appreciate that there's more to the supply/demand balance than simply that; but I keep coming back to those facts when investing in oil.

 
In the last oil downturn I snapped up boatloads of oil royalty trusts. These things pay you monster dividends and the yield is nuts right after a commodities pullback. The tickers I remember off top of my head were SJT and SBR.

edit, current yield on those two is nearly 10%
Intrigued, are you still holding any?

 
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BP has a 6.4% dividend... Pretty ####### massive for such an established brand. I think the Gulf disaster is just about behind them.

Might load the boat on them

 
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In the last oil downturn I snapped up boatloads of oil royalty trusts. These things pay you monster dividends and the yield is nuts right after a commodities pullback. The tickers I remember off top of my head were SJT and SBR.

edit, current yield on those two is nearly 10%
Intrigued, are you still holding any?
No, but I might get in at this point. Keep in mind these are depletion based assets and have a somewhat complicated tax structure requiring your tax filing to become more complicated, and certainly filed with an extension.

You can find some ETF with these in them, but the fees are fairly high.

 
In the last oil downturn I snapped up boatloads of oil royalty trusts. These things pay you monster dividends and the yield is nuts right after a commodities pullback. The tickers I remember off top of my head were SJT and SBR.

edit, current yield on those two is nearly 10%
Intrigued, are you still holding any?
No, but I might get in at this point. Keep in mind these are depletion based assets and have a somewhat complicated tax structure requiring your tax filing to become more complicated, and certainly filed with an extension.

You can find some ETF with these in them, but the fees are fairly high.
Might give those a spot in the portfolio... For 2015 at the end of this month I think I am going to take half of my sector rotation money and split up:

50% rotation

20%BP

20%XOM

20%COP

20%UCO

20% Split on these two royalty trusts

Not very diversified, but placing a wager on what is hopefully discounted oil. Just trying to come up with next year's strategy and thinking this one out loud.

 
In the last oil downturn I snapped up boatloads of oil royalty trusts. These things pay you monster dividends and the yield is nuts right after a commodities pullback. The tickers I remember off top of my head were SJT and SBR.

edit, current yield on those two is nearly 10%
Intrigued, are you still holding any?
No, but I might get in at this point. Keep in mind these are depletion based assets and have a somewhat complicated tax structure requiring your tax filing to become more complicated, and certainly filed with an extension.

You can find some ETF with these in them, but the fees are fairly high.
Might give those a spot in the portfolio... For 2015 at the end of this month I think I am going to take half of my sector rotation money and split up:

50% rotation

20%BP

20%XOM

20%COP

20%UCO

20% Split on these two royalty trusts

Not very diversified, but placing a wager on what is hopefully discounted oil. Just trying to come up with next year's strategy and thinking this one out loud.
Here's a list of more tickers and what petro products they run. Also a little more information.

http://www.dividendyieldhunter.com/us-royalty-trusts

 
In the last oil downturn I snapped up boatloads of oil royalty trusts. These things pay you monster dividends and the yield is nuts right after a commodities pullback. The tickers I remember off top of my head were SJT and SBR.

edit, current yield on those two is nearly 10%
Intrigued, are you still holding any?
No, but I might get in at this point. Keep in mind these are depletion based assets and have a somewhat complicated tax structure requiring your tax filing to become more complicated, and certainly filed with an extension.

You can find some ETF with these in them, but the fees are fairly high.
Might give those a spot in the portfolio... For 2015 at the end of this month I think I am going to take half of my sector rotation money and split up:

50% rotation

20%BP

20%XOM

20%COP

20%UCO

20% Split on these two royalty trusts

Not very diversified, but placing a wager on what is hopefully discounted oil. Just trying to come up with next year's strategy and thinking this one out loud.
Here's a list of more tickers and what petro products they run. Also a little more information.

http://www.dividendyieldhunter.com/us-royalty-trusts
These look complicated... I feel like an investment into these is a surefire way for a novice like me to lose money.

Might just stick with Exxon, BP, and buy into some Crude ETF. Maybe place a big bet like 30-35% of portfolio... Need to spend the next two weeks doing HW.

 
In the last oil downturn I snapped up boatloads of oil royalty trusts. These things pay you monster dividends and the yield is nuts right after a commodities pullback. The tickers I remember off top of my head were SJT and SBR.

edit, current yield on those two is nearly 10%
Intrigued, are you still holding any?
No, but I might get in at this point. Keep in mind these are depletion based assets and have a somewhat complicated tax structure requiring your tax filing to become more complicated, and certainly filed with an extension.

You can find some ETF with these in them, but the fees are fairly high.
Might give those a spot in the portfolio... For 2015 at the end of this month I think I am going to take half of my sector rotation money and split up:

50% rotation

20%BP

20%XOM

20%COP

20%UCO

20% Split on these two royalty trusts

Not very diversified, but placing a wager on what is hopefully discounted oil. Just trying to come up with next year's strategy and thinking this one out loud.
Here's a list of more tickers and what petro products they run. Also a little more information.

http://www.dividendyieldhunter.com/us-royalty-trusts
These look complicated... I feel like an investment into these is a surefire way for a novice like me to lose money.

Might just stick with Exxon, BP, and buy into some Crude ETF. Maybe place a big bet like 30-35% of portfolio... Need to spend the next two weeks doing HW.
Well you get murdered when oil prices and natural gas prices fall. There's no better upside play if you are making a call if you really think the bottom has been hit, plus you keep getting paid out while you wait for a peak. Swings on these stocks can be 10% in a day, easy. Walk back through these in the 1998 to 2004 timespan and overlay price of WTI just to see how big the swings can be.

 
Okay, so my limited knowledge of reading the link you just posted here, it looks like these symbols all have expiration dates? Or at some point their rights end?

Does this mean you need to know these dates, and if so, what is the exit strategy? IDK if my comments make any sense about these, but if they do, I feel like these funds are open hunting season on the novices and the pros make tons on them.

 
In the last oil downturn I snapped up boatloads of oil royalty trusts. These things pay you monster dividends and the yield is nuts right after a commodities pullback. The tickers I remember off top of my head were SJT and SBR.

edit, current yield on those two is nearly 10%
PER looks interesting. 32% yield. :hifive:

 
Okay, so my limited knowledge of reading the link you just posted here, it looks like these symbols all have expiration dates? Or at some point their rights end?

Does this mean you need to know these dates, and if so, what is the exit strategy? IDK if my comments make any sense about these, but if they do, I feel like these funds are open hunting season on the novices and the pros make tons on them.
They all have to put this in their quarterly statements. Like I said at the beginning, they are depletion based assets. Eventually they will have 0 value and will have paid out all their assets as dividends.

 
Okay, so my limited knowledge of reading the link you just posted here, it looks like these symbols all have expiration dates? Or at some point their rights end?

Does this mean you need to know these dates, and if so, what is the exit strategy? IDK if my comments make any sense about these, but if they do, I feel like these funds are open hunting season on the novices and the pros make tons on them.
They all have to put this in their quarterly statements. Like I said at the beginning, they are depletion based assets. Eventually they will have 0 value and will have paid out all their assets as dividends.
understood

 
In the last oil downturn I snapped up boatloads of oil royalty trusts. These things pay you monster dividends and the yield is nuts right after a commodities pullback. The tickers I remember off top of my head were SJT and SBR.

edit, current yield on those two is nearly 10%
PBT....that was one of my selections. Permain Basin Royalty Trust.

San Juan is your other. They focus more on Natural Gas. Both are steals at these levels.

 
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http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vwnfx

Curios, why did this fund lose 6% on a day the stock market rose 288 points? Just seeing if someone can break it down for me a little.
it probably just made year end distribution of dividends and capital gains. You can check the dist. Date on the Vanguard siteETA, They distributed 3.028 per share, so backing that out, the price would have been up on the day about 74 cents.

 
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http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vwnfx

Curios, why did this fund lose 6% on a day the stock market rose 288 points? Just seeing if someone can break it down for me a little.
it probably just made year end distribution of dividends and capital gains. You can check the dist. Date on the Vanguard siteETA, They distributed 3.028 per share, so backing that out, the price would have been up on the day about 74 cents.
Cool, I thought it was odd but my account still "lost money" but the fund was "inflated" due to the lack of dividend payment is what I am gathering.

Made the switch and just waiting for approval of the brokerage account. Then, transfer money into the account... wait a week for the new money to clear and then buy stocks. So, I have a week or so to investigate stocks... dividend paying stocks.

 
Picked up some more XOM a couple of days ago and grabbed a bunch of BP today(probably a day or two later then I should have). Hoping the bottom is past us on this and let's keep that ride going.

 
Am I crazy to think this is nothing more than an opportunity to buy more Amaya?

It seems to me that if the Mounties were after somebody in the company, there would be a smear campaign accompanying the raid/investigation. It feels like, unless they find something completely unexpected, this is the type of thing that might impact traders rather than insiders, which shouldn't impact the company/stock at all.

Differing thoughts/opinions?

 
This S&P losing streak is getting painful!

Siff, I know you were adjusting the rules for the sector rotation. IEF appears to be the only winner as of now in December. If the month were to continue how it is now, do the rules call for 50% investment there and the other 50% in S&P? Or would it be 50% there and the other in cash?
Well if the LT market is bullish at the end of this month at least 50% will remain in $IVV. But it's quite possible the bull market has topped. We're just going to have to wait and see. There is always the risk of buying at the high, but you only know that in hindsight.

I did post an article a month or so ago giving many technical reasons why a top was potentially at hand. We are really at a critical level of support at the close of today. I'd like to say we'll bounce from here...I kind of think we do...but there isn't a single indicator I have suggesting that. And any bounce might be relatively short lived.
Good call here...

What are your thoughts on it being short lived after the Fed notes?

 
Picked up some more XOM a couple of days ago and grabbed a bunch of BP today(probably a day or two later then I should have). Hoping the bottom is past us on this and let's keep that ride going.
While I like XOM, CVX, and COP a great deal I am not such a fan of BP. Their payout ratio is 90% now and likely to go up. The spill payouts are far from done (my state is suing them as we speak). Just IMO.

I also bought some HAL while things were down after harvesting some CBI losses. Not sure if I'll jump back into CBI or just hang with HAL for a while.

So now I have a bit of XOM, COP, and HAL along with a mega scary sized portion of CVX in the portfolio (not my choice to have an outsized amount of this, but I'm not selling it now).

 
Am I crazy to think this is nothing more than an opportunity to buy more Amaya?

It seems to me that if the Mounties were after somebody in the company, there would be a smear campaign accompanying the raid/investigation. It feels like, unless they find something completely unexpected, this is the type of thing that might impact traders rather than insiders, which shouldn't impact the company/stock at all.

Differing thoughts/opinions?
Agreement here. I think when the journalists used the word "RAID" it scared the hell out of people. But look at the players in this company now...Black Rock, Blackstone, Vanguard. This is a big boy company now and I feel very secure in the belief that Baazov is smart and calculating and will take every precaution to keep his company on the level and rid of anybody who could sabotage what he's built. I didn't sell a single share and would buy more if I had cash.

 
Am I crazy to think this is nothing more than an opportunity to buy more Amaya?

It seems to me that if the Mounties were after somebody in the company, there would be a smear campaign accompanying the raid/investigation. It feels like, unless they find something completely unexpected, this is the type of thing that might impact traders rather than insiders, which shouldn't impact the company/stock at all.

Differing thoughts/opinions?
Agreement here. I think when the journalists used the word "RAID" it scared the hell out of people. But look at the players in this company now...Black Rock, Blackstone, Vanguard. This is a big boy company now
So was Enron.

 
Am I crazy to think this is nothing more than an opportunity to buy more Amaya?

It seems to me that if the Mounties were after somebody in the company, there would be a smear campaign accompanying the raid/investigation. It feels like, unless they find something completely unexpected, this is the type of thing that might impact traders rather than insiders, which shouldn't impact the company/stock at all.

Differing thoughts/opinions?
Agreement here. I think when the journalists used the word "RAID" it scared the hell out of people. But look at the players in this company now...Black Rock, Blackstone, Vanguard. This is a big boy company now
So was Enron.
Touche

 
Am I crazy to think this is nothing more than an opportunity to buy more Amaya?

It seems to me that if the Mounties were after somebody in the company, there would be a smear campaign accompanying the raid/investigation. It feels like, unless they find something completely unexpected, this is the type of thing that might impact traders rather than insiders, which shouldn't impact the company/stock at all.

Differing thoughts/opinions?
Agreement here. I think when the journalists used the word "RAID" it scared the hell out of people. But look at the players in this company now...Black Rock, Blackstone, Vanguard. This is a big boy company now and I feel very secure in the belief that Baazov is smart and calculating and will take every precaution to keep his company on the level and rid of anybody who could sabotage what he's built. I didn't sell a single share and would buy more if I had cash.
Ticker? :oldunsure:
AMYGF

AYA.TO

 
how come when I tried to place an order for those Amaya stocks via my online broker, I got a message telling me I had to call them to place the order and they couldn't take it via the interwebs.

:oldunsure:

 
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how come when I tried to place an order for those Amaya stocks via my online broker, I got a message telling me I had to call them to place the order and they couldn't take it via the interwebs.

:oldunsure:
Are you restricted in pink sheet stocks? My broker won't let me place a market order for them, I have to make them limit orders. Pink sheets can be shady.
yeah, there's a message saying limit orders only, but after I fill that out it still rejects it. I hate having to call an order in.

that's why I switched to these guys in the first place.

this is like one of those Wolf of Wall Street stocks?

 
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I have my IRA contribution to make. I'm looking at $1,500-2,000 into Apple... should have done this many moons ago but the rest of it into oil. I'd prefer good dividends but I'm good with a little risk as well. Where to put the rest of the $3,500-4,000?

I'm looking at Exxon and BP. Should I forgo Apple this time around since oil is so low?

 
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Dow goes up, oil goes down. No one can explain that. Like the tides.

Looking long term at the following oil: (In no particular order)

BP = http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bp

RDSA = http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/rds.a

CVX = http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cvx

COP = http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cop

XOM = http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/xom

I do like the first three a bit more. Still debating going into 2 of these or 3 of these for my IRA.

 
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A few last thoughts for 2014:

Mario Kart - A few posts up you write "but I'm good with a little risk..."

What I write here is really just a reminder to myself and maybe all of us in general.

Risk should always be defined. It's a first step toward being disciplined. It defines the essence of your investment plan. It gives you a direction before you ever take leave of the shore. There's no such thing as "a little risk" when the risk is undefined.

I was reading the other day--there are thousands of stars visible in the night sky, but only a limited few can be used to navigate.

It's a great metaphor for investing. The thousands of stars in the investment "universe" are: news; expert opinions; forums; fundamentals; technicals...- an unlimited menu of investment advice and without a compass your future is like a small boat adrift in the current and at the economic whims outside of your control. We all need a North Star.

There is no better compass for making a sound investment than following the trend.

Following the trend doesn't mean you have to be perfect either. Just pointed in the correct direction.

Recognizing the basic trend of the market (stock, index or sector) is 95% of your success. #### will happen. But as long as you stay steadfast to a discipline that recognizes the fact that sometimes there are bull markets and sometimes there are bear markets and as long as you strive to be aligned accordingly you will be far ahead of the game.

So before you ever put one penny at risk- ask yourself - what is the trend direction of this $XYZ? Seek out the opportunities of tops and bottoms, but be patient and let the opportunity come to you. And when that moment comes - when the trend is showing its first signs of smooth sailing- take a defined chance. And win, lose or draw, have the courage to do it when the next opportunity arises.

Good Luck!

 
SH - you thinking back ti IJR for Jan? I could see your recommendation going IJH if it posts another strong day tomorrow. To me, it looks like it's building momentum - of course IJR already has momentum...

 
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