Stock Thread (46 Viewers)

[Mystery Achiever]

Just as a point of distinction, I believe EPD is a limited partnership; KMI is not.

 

[fantasycurse42]

How about some of the other oil etfs do any of them fare better than uso?

Also I should have bought the other day, it's going up again today!

Dude, short term oil is not doing anything spectacular - As others have mentioned, there is basically no chance you time it perfectly.

 

[Dentist]

How about some of the other oil etfs do any of them fare better than uso?

Also I should have bought the other day, it's going up again today!

Dude, short term oil is not doing anything spectacular - As others have mentioned, there is basically no chance you time it perfectly.

so you're saying there's a chance?

 

[Arid Filch]

Like everyone else, I would like to capitalize upon the opportunity that oil appears to offer. CVX, COP, XOM seem to be conservative investments with 20-30% earning potential over the next year. I am not interested in those. USO and UCO look a lot less attractive after considering the effect of long-term futures decay. Investing in U.S. gas and oil companies appears to offer the greatest level of risk/reward.

I have been looking at Denbury Resources, DNR. They have fallen 66% since July, in large part due to their oversized debt, but they are still profitable. They utilize carbon dioxide in their extraction, which I of course know nothing about but I appreciate their innovation. Even if oil does not return to $100/barrel, fracking techniques will improve and become profitable at lower levels. I feel that DNR is a relatively safe investment with 200-300% potential in 2-3 years.

PBR, the Brazilian oil, has been falling steadily since 2009. Now that financial scandals have surfaced along with the oil crisis, I expect that they will reach a bottom later this year.

I foresee oil developing a bottom in March/April. The cost of WTI should be around $37/barrel.

The only stock I have purchased recently is JAKK, a toymaker. They struggled for a couple years but they are trending upwards and I like their potential. I would like to hear about other companies which are near their 52 week lows. How does everyone feel about DDD and SSYS now? FUEL and FEYE? MysteryAchiever, I would love to hear your thoughts on individual stocks, particularly those which are at relative lows but still profitable or expected to be profitable soon.

 

[Dentist]

What do you guys think about the ETF UGA which holds gasoline rather than oil?

 

[Mystery Achiever]

The only stock I have purchased recently is JAKK, a toymaker. They struggled for a couple years but they are trending upwards and I like their potential. I would like to hear about other companies which are near their 52 week lows. How does everyone feel about DDD and SSYS now? FUEL and FEYE? MysteryAchiever, I would love to hear your thoughts on individual stocks, particularly those which are at relative lows but still profitable or expected to be profitable soon.

Sorry to be boring, but I think CVX and COP are solid ways to play oil. Smaller/more risky is GBX, which has sold off with oil even though only 25% (IIRC) of their cars are for oil and fracking sand. I am still holding FEYE, which seems to finally be rebounding, but I think PANW may have better management. It doubled last year, though, so possibly more limited upside.

 

[fantasycurse42]

The only stock I have purchased recently is JAKK, a toymaker. They struggled for a couple years but they are trending upwards and I like their potential. I would like to hear about other companies which are near their 52 week lows. How does everyone feel about DDD and SSYS now? FUEL and FEYE? MysteryAchiever, I would love to hear your thoughts on individual stocks, particularly those which are at relative lows but still profitable or expected to be profitable soon.

Sorry to be boring, but I think CVX and COP are solid ways to play oil. Smaller/more risky is GBX, which has sold off with oil even though only 25% (IIRC) of their cars are for oil and fracking sand. I am still holding FEYE, which seems to finally be rebounding, but I think PANW may have better management. It doubled last year, though, so possibly more limited upside.

While they have fallen, I think there is still more to come... They will be seeing lower profits, making layoffs, etc...

I don't think all of these factors are in yet, and might not be fully realized until after Q2 or possibly Q3 earnings reports.

I'm looking to add long term to these too, I'm just waiting right now.

 

[Dentist]

USO is on the top ten list for monetary inflows to ETFs for this month.

granted it's behind gold, but still that's impressive for a random commodity ETF to take in 800 million in a month.. which is nearly 1/3rd of it's total current market cap

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I don't think all of these factors are in yet, and might not be fully realized until after Q2 or possibly Q3 earnings reports.

I'm looking to add long term to these too, I'm just waiting right now.

Earnings next Thurs/Fri. Seasonally, end of Jan. has been a good time to buy, but we haven't had yearly 50% price drops.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

What do you guys think about the ETF UGA which holds gasoline rather than oil?

I posted about it a month or so ago. It pretty accurately rises and falls with the price at the pump.

 

[siffoin]

I think you guys should go ahead and buy your Oil stocks or Oil ETFs. What I've tried to say all along is that just recognize the fact that this investment decision is based (in this moment) on rushed greed. It is what it is. We make irrational decisions all the time. And there are many many wealthy people who followed their "hunches" to riches. However for the vast majority of investors following their "gut" over the long haul get led to the poor house.. But sure, go ahead and take some % of your portfolio and go for it.

But come and sit down on my shrink couch for a second. The real risk and concern in taking on these kinds of bottom picking/market timing positions isn't that you'll lose on the position. The real risk is that you win. A big win will set in your mind an example of success based off an irrational decision. It will plant a seed of desire to repeat the pattern too . It's a very dangerous and poisonous seed to have planted in your investing psyche.

"This is a special situation."

"It's only this one time", you might say.

Which just so happens to also be the famous last words of meth heads, and teenage parents.

Once you planted this seed you've already told yourself that it's "ok" to make irrational investment decisions, and it's hard to root a weed like this out of your mind. That is the song of the siren "remember when I made racks off of oil in Oh Fifteen...I can do the same thing this time with ____, I can't lose". In time you can and WILL lose. For many - what once was a methodical get rich slowly plan becomes the desperation of a degenerate gambler- because they are trying to force wins in an effort to just get back to even.

It's so easy to be swayed by fear and greed as these are primal instincts. And my suggestion is that when confronted with these instincts you recognize them for what they are and step back and re-focus on a pre-determined set of actions that re-root you back in the here and now rational moment. In the same way a golfer has a pre-shot routine you should have a pre-investment routine for every investment buy and sell. And make sure the components of that investment routine do not include either fear nor greed. There is not a position I hold where I can't tell you where the trend fails and I reverse my opinion on the position. That is habituated into my "process."

With all of that said - One of the fun things about trading is hitting home runs. ### #### I LOVE HITTING A HOME RUN! There's a rush - it's awesome. So I get the desire to play Oil here as a potential home run play. Sometimes you have to swing for the fence. If you do - I would suggest you take a much smaller position size than normal. Seriously - like 1% of your total portfolio. Be smart..(example): if you're going to ride your girlfriend bareback on prom night make sure you have the wherewithal to know when to pull out. What I'm saying is: Don't let one irrational decision turn into a lifetime of regret.

Re: UGA - I actually like this. Mainly because we all know the price of gasoline. Thus the position becomes in a ways a hedge. If your investment loses you are paying less of the pump. If you are paying more at the pump the investment is gaining. 100 shares of UGA = approx 2000 gallons of gas hedge at $1.50 gallon. Right now there is about $.015 loss each month due to the roll-over of the contracts.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I think you guys should go ahead and buy your Oil stocks or Oil ETFs. What I've tried to say all along is that just recognize the fact that this investment decision is based (in this moment) on rushed greed. It is what it is. We make irrational decisions all the time. And there are many many wealthy people who followed their "hunches" to riches. However for the vast majority of investors following their "gut" over the long haul get led to the poor house.. But sure, go ahead and take some % of your portfolio and go for it.

But come and sit down on my shrink couch for a second. The real risk and concern in taking on these kinds of bottom picking/market timing positions isn't that you'll lose on the position. The real risk is that you win. A big win will set in your mind an example of success based off an irrational decision. It will plant a seed of desire to repeat the pattern too . It's a very dangerous and poisonous seed to have planted in your investing psyche.

"This is a special situation."

"It's only this one time", you might say.

Which just so happens to also be the famous last words of meth heads, and teenage parents.

Once you planted this seed you've already told yourself that it's "ok" to make irrational investment decisions, and it's hard to root a weed like this out of your mind. That is the song of the siren "remember when I made racks off of oil in Oh Fifteen...I can do the same thing this time with ____, I can't lose". In time you can and WILL lose. For many - what once was a methodical get rich slowly plan becomes the desperation of a degenerate gambler- because they are trying to force wins in an effort to just get back to even.

It's so easy to be swayed by fear and greed as these are primal instincts. And my suggestion is that when confronted with these instincts you recognize them for what they are and step back and re-focus on a pre-determined set of actions that re-root you back in the here and now rational moment. In the same way a golfer has a pre-shot routine you should have a pre-investment routine for every investment buy and sell. And make sure the components of that investment routine do not include either fear nor greed. There is not a position I hold where I can't tell you where the trend fails and I reverse my opinion on the position. That is habituated into my "process."

With all of that said - One of the fun things about trading is hitting home runs. ### #### I LOVE HITTING A HOME RUN! There's a rush - it's awesome. So I get the desire to play Oil here as a potential home run play. Sometimes you have to swing for the fence. If you do - I would suggest you take a much smaller position size than normal. Seriously - like 1% of your total portfolio. Be smart..(example): if you're going to ride your girlfriend bareback on prom night make sure you have the wherewithal to know when to pull out. What I'm saying is: Don't let one irrational decision turn into a lifetime of regret.

Re: UGA - I actually like this. Mainly because we all know the price of gasoline. Thus the position becomes in a ways a hedge. If your investment loses you are paying less of the pump. If you are paying more at the pump the investment is gaining. 100 shares of UGA = approx 2000 gallons of gas hedge at $1.50 gallon. Right now there is about $.015 loss each month due to the roll-over of the contracts.

I'm waiting for a bottom to form before buying UGA and then plan on buying at least a couple of years of my gasoline in advance.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Nuts to siff. I just bought 3 wells in central Illinois and invested the rest in Clampett Enterprises.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Nuts to siff. I just bought 3 wells in central Illinois and invested the rest in Clampett Enterprises.

One day you're going to drive a banker crazy.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

You know what Mickey Mouse said to the judge in divorce court, right?

 

[Sand]

Just as a point of distinction, I believe EPD is a limited partnership; KMI is not.

And just as a different point of distinction ( ), I bought KMI, EPD, and MMP at the depths of the credit crunch in 2008. I've done well by these guys.

 

[IC FBGCav]

I don't know much but just open a Roth yesterday with 2K, 1000 in TSLA, 500 in Novozymes and 500 in USO.

 

[IC FBGCav]

I have worked with Novozymes (Denmark) for 17 years. It seems that they are going to be huge someday(they are already big). I would like you guys to look into them in an investment light.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I have worked with Novozymes (Denmark) for 17 years. It seems that they are going to be huge someday(they are already big). I would like you guys to look into them in an investment light.

What makes you so bullish on them?

It's tough to comment too much without knowing a lot about the company. I had 5 minutes to look at their results. Just quick impression...

Nice stock buyback plans

Ever-increasing dividend

Good 2014, even among declining oil prices

Cash

38% of sales in Europe right now?

A company built on sustainability in an environment where oil is cheap?

15% increase in raw materials and 25% increase in inventory YOY, coupled with an 8% decrease in goods in progress? Why?

 

[IC FBGCav]

I have worked with Novozymes (Denmark) for 17 years. It seems that they are going to be huge someday(they are already big). I would like you guys to look into them in an investment light.

What makes you so bullish on them?

It's tough to comment too much without knowing a lot about the company. I had 5 minutes to look at their results. Just quick impression...

Nice stock buyback plans

Ever-increasing dividend

Good 2014, even among declining oil prices

Cash

38% of sales in Europe right now?

A company built on sustainability in an environment where oil is cheap?

15% increase in raw materials and 25% increase in inventory YOY, coupled with an 8% decrease in goods in progress? Why?

First off, I only deal with them in the marketing realm.

They deal in enzymes, biofuels and their best product is for diabetics. I am asking for you insight because I don't know. But they are global.

One problem that I know they have is with their enzymes cleaning product in South America ie Brazil. The person that told me this was from Brazil. They believe that the more suds/bubbles you have while cleaning makes the item cleaner. Their enzyme product does much better cleaning but does not produce bubble or suds. This sounds basic but it a cultural thing.

They have facilities in at least 5 continents.

 

[IC FBGCav]

I have worked with Novozymes (Denmark) for 17 years. It seems that they are going to be huge someday(they are already big). I would like you guys to look into them in an investment light.

What makes you so bullish on them?

It's tough to comment too much without knowing a lot about the company. I had 5 minutes to look at their results. Just quick impression...

Nice stock buyback plans

Ever-increasing dividend

Good 2014, even among declining oil prices

Cash

38% of sales in Europe right now?

A company built on sustainability in an environment where oil is cheap?

15% increase in raw materials and 25% increase in inventory YOY, coupled with an 8% decrease in goods in progress? Why?

But in the end, I think they are creating superior products by alternative processes.

http://www.novozymes.com/en/news/news-archive/Pages/Novozymes-technology-enables-GlaxoSmithKline%E2%80%99s-new-once-weekly-diabetes-treatment.aspx

 

[Johnnymac]

I think you guys should go ahead and buy your Oil stocks or Oil ETFs. What I've tried to say all along is that just recognize the fact that this investment decision is based (in this moment) on rushed greed. It is what it is. We make irrational decisions all the time. And there are many many wealthy people who followed their "hunches" to riches. However for the vast majority of investors following their "gut" over the long haul get led to the poor house.. But sure, go ahead and take some % of your portfolio and go for it.

But come and sit down on my shrink couch for a second. The real risk and concern in taking on these kinds of bottom picking/market timing positions isn't that you'll lose on the position. The real risk is that you win. A big win will set in your mind an example of success based off an irrational decision. It will plant a seed of desire to repeat the pattern too . It's a very dangerous and poisonous seed to have planted in your investing psyche.

"This is a special situation."

"It's only this one time", you might say.

Which just so happens to also be the famous last words of meth heads, and teenage parents.

Once you planted this seed you've already told yourself that it's "ok" to make irrational investment decisions, and it's hard to root a weed like this out of your mind. That is the song of the siren "remember when I made racks off of oil in Oh Fifteen...I can do the same thing this time with ____, I can't lose". In time you can and WILL lose. For many - what once was a methodical get rich slowly plan becomes the desperation of a degenerate gambler- because they are trying to force wins in an effort to just get back to even.

It's so easy to be swayed by fear and greed as these are primal instincts. And my suggestion is that when confronted with these instincts you recognize them for what they are and step back and re-focus on a pre-determined set of actions that re-root you back in the here and now rational moment. In the same way a golfer has a pre-shot routine you should have a pre-investment routine for every investment buy and sell. And make sure the components of that investment routine do not include either fear nor greed. There is not a position I hold where I can't tell you where the trend fails and I reverse my opinion on the position. That is habituated into my "process."

With all of that said - One of the fun things about trading is hitting home runs. ### #### I LOVE HITTING A HOME RUN! There's a rush - it's awesome. So I get the desire to play Oil here as a potential home run play. Sometimes you have to swing for the fence. If you do - I would suggest you take a much smaller position size than normal. Seriously - like 1% of your total portfolio. Be smart..(example): if you're going to ride your girlfriend bareback on prom night make sure you have the wherewithal to know when to pull out. What I'm saying is: Don't let one irrational decision turn into a lifetime of regret.

Re: UGA - I actually like this. Mainly because we all know the price of gasoline. Thus the position becomes in a ways a hedge. If your investment loses you are paying less of the pump. If you are paying more at the pump the investment is gaining. 100 shares of UGA = approx 2000 gallons of gas hedge at $1.50 gallon. Right now there is about $.015 loss each month due to the roll-over of the contracts.

Really excellent post here.

 

[shady inc]

I think you guys should go ahead and buy your Oil stocks or Oil ETFs. What I've tried to say all along is that just recognize the fact that this investment decision is based (in this moment) on rushed greed. It is what it is. We make irrational decisions all the time. And there are many many wealthy people who followed their "hunches" to riches. However for the vast majority of investors following their "gut" over the long haul get led to the poor house.. But sure, go ahead and take some % of your portfolio and go for it.

But come and sit down on my shrink couch for a second. The real risk and concern in taking on these kinds of bottom picking/market timing positions isn't that you'll lose on the position. The real risk is that you win. A big win will set in your mind an example of success based off an irrational decision. It will plant a seed of desire to repeat the pattern too . It's a very dangerous and poisonous seed to have planted in your investing psyche.

"This is a special situation."

"It's only this one time", you might say.

Which just so happens to also be the famous last words of meth heads, and teenage parents.

Once you planted this seed you've already told yourself that it's "ok" to make irrational investment decisions, and it's hard to root a weed like this out of your mind. That is the song of the siren "remember when I made racks off of oil in Oh Fifteen...I can do the same thing this time with ____, I can't lose". In time you can and WILL lose. For many - what once was a methodical get rich slowly plan becomes the desperation of a degenerate gambler- because they are trying to force wins in an effort to just get back to even.

It's so easy to be swayed by fear and greed as these are primal instincts. And my suggestion is that when confronted with these instincts you recognize them for what they are and step back and re-focus on a pre-determined set of actions that re-root you back in the here and now rational moment. In the same way a golfer has a pre-shot routine you should have a pre-investment routine for every investment buy and sell. And make sure the components of that investment routine do not include either fear nor greed. There is not a position I hold where I can't tell you where the trend fails and I reverse my opinion on the position. That is habituated into my "process."

With all of that said - One of the fun things about trading is hitting home runs. ### #### I LOVE HITTING A HOME RUN! There's a rush - it's awesome. So I get the desire to play Oil here as a potential home run play. Sometimes you have to swing for the fence. If you do - I would suggest you take a much smaller position size than normal. Seriously - like 1% of your total portfolio. Be smart..(example): if you're going to ride your girlfriend bareback on prom night make sure you have the wherewithal to know when to pull out. What I'm saying is: Don't let one irrational decision turn into a lifetime of regret.

Re: UGA - I actually like this. Mainly because we all know the price of gasoline. Thus the position becomes in a ways a hedge. If your investment loses you are paying less of the pump. If you are paying more at the pump the investment is gaining. 100 shares of UGA = approx 2000 gallons of gas hedge at $1.50 gallon. Right now there is about $.015 loss each month due to the roll-over of the contracts.

Really excellent post here.

especially the part about riding your girlfriend bareback

 

[sbonomo]

No analysis today....I guess snowmageddon has everyone shut down. Diff any insight on Feb trades? So far so good for January.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Fantastic post by siff.

 

[mquinnjr]

Fantastic post by siff.

 

[Mario Kart]

I have worked with Novozymes (Denmark) for 17 years. It seems that they are going to be huge someday(they are already big). I would like you guys to look into them in an investment light.

http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/blog/real_estate/2012/03/novozymes-plans-to-buy-site-in.html

I just Googled this company to see what its about. They have some kind of facility in Milwaukee, WI. Where it is located, you would have no idea this company is what it is. Unless, the Denmark company and the one in Milwaukee have no relation.

 

[Al Czervik]

What do you guys think about the ETF UGA which holds gasoline rather than oil?

I posted about it a month or so ago. It pretty accurately rises and falls with the price at the pump.

Seems like gasoline has hit it's bottom. Price has been about the same for the last 3 weeks. Not plummeting like it was months prior.

 

[Dentist]

Totally gambling here. Probably throwing my money into the wind. No real analysis done, just putting my money on Red and spinning the wheel.

UCO picked up at 6.90 - 500 shares

I've already lost $70 as it is down to 6.75 now

 

[fantasycurse42]

IEF has to be the top sector as of right now for Feb rotation?

 

[Al Czervik]

IEF has to be the top sector as of right now for Feb rotation?

@steelhedge: SH Top Sector probably going to shift to bonds - $IEF.

 

[ShaHBucks]

.

 

[Al Czervik]

What do you guys think about the ETF UGA which holds gasoline rather than oil?

I posted about it a month or so ago. It pretty accurately rises and falls with the price at the pump.

Seems like gasoline has hit it's bottom. Price has been about the same for the last 3 weeks. Not plummeting like it was months prior.

I like the GasBuddy app for finding cheap prices around me. However, I just discovered their website GasBuddy.com has a nice area for historical price charts. You can pick various timeframes and also include a line for the crude oil price. Interesting to see oil still dropping but gasoline has leveled a bit and even risen recently [Link].

 

[St. Louis Bob]

What do you guys think about the ETF UGA which holds gasoline rather than oil?

I posted about it a month or so ago. It pretty accurately rises and falls with the price at the pump.

Seems like gasoline has hit it's bottom. Price has been about the same for the last 3 weeks. Not plummeting like it was months prior.

I like the GasBuddy app for finding cheap prices around me. However, I just discovered their website GasBuddy.com has a nice area for historical price charts. You can pick various timeframes and also include a line for the crude oil price. Interesting to see oil still dropping but gasoline has leveled a bit and even risen recently [Link].

It certainly seems that way doesn't it?

 

[Mario Kart]

Wish I had some AMZN.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Wish I had some AMZN.

&

They made 214 million, stock goes crazy. GOOGL makes 4.1 BILLION, a 41% increase over the same period, stock rallies a little on a possible dividend or cash pay out.

 

[sbonomo]

Wish I had some AMZN.

I am so glad i sold that turd rather than chasing getting back to even....painful lesson there.....

 

[scifijon]

Any falling knives worth attempting to catch with all this fun in Greece? (I know the best answer is NO as per siff, just curious what FBGs are thinking)

 

[dschuler]

Does anyone know anything about FCX? I have been thinking about pulling the trigger, glad I haven't yet. What a falling knife that thing is

 

[ShaHBucks]

Wish I had some AMZN.

&

They made 214 million, stock goes crazy. GOOGL makes 4.1 BILLION, a 41% increase over the same period, stock rallies a little on a possible dividend or cash pay out.

Seems rational

 

[Eminence]

Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.

 

[siffoin]

IEF has to be the top sector as of right now for Feb rotation?

@steelhedge: SH Top Sector probably going to shift to bonds - $IEF.

Question for Siff, this month is it 50% IEF and 50% SPY or, when it goes to the bond fund, do you go 100% IEF?

It's looking like $IEF is going to be the pick for February.

In regards to the 50% $SPY. I have a "line in the sand" (around $SPY=200). If we cross below that it means the Primary Trend has turned. We're right on that line. It's a big deal and has been regularly defended for months.

Generally the ST market is oversold - even after yesterday - So if even we do close below that line today waiting till Monday (or a few days into February) would probably work to your favor. Since it's not clear I think it best to err on the side of caution.

I'm pretty sure there's just a couple of you following this. If you don't mind from this point on- I'll just post the signal via Twitter. If I can post here too I will. But check twitter if you don't see the post here.

Why? I'm in the process of making a move to where I will be spending a lot of time starting a new food oriented business venture with a Non-Profit. It's very exciting but since it is outside of anything I've ever done a little scary too. When this thing get's fully up and running I think I'll be able to employ 3-4+ people here in Boise - these will be from a pool of International refugees to battered women etc. We're talking building the American dream kind of opportunities to these few people. This isn't a game changer for the world but maybe a life changer for a few. Right now the onus is on me to make it happen. And I have to get it done. I'll still be trading like I always do - it's just that twitter will be an easier and simplified means of communicating consistently. And of course when I'm in FFA, I'll post here too.

 

[tommyGunZ]

GL with the new venture siff. When you get it up and running and have more time, I'd love to hear more about it.

 

[fantasycurse42]

GL with the new venture siff. When you get it up and running and have more time, I'd love to hear more about it.

+1

 

[fantasycurse42]

Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.

What does this mean?

Oil futures? Buying crude and storing away thousands of barrels? Oil ETF like USO? Gasoline? Companies like Exxon, BP, Chevron?

Please explain this surefire way to triple/quadruple my money. To get that kind of return in the next 5 years will cut my retirement age by 10-15 years if I can just take quadruple what I have now and add 7% a year afterwards.

 

[Northern Voice]

So people really love SHAK huh?

 

[siffoin]

Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.

What does this mean?

Oil futures? Buying crude and storing away thousands of barrels? Oil ETF like USO? Gasoline? Companies like Exxon, BP, Chevron?

Please explain this surefire way to triple/quadruple my money. To get that kind of return in the next 5 years will cut my retirement age by 10-15 years if I can just take quadruple what I have now and add 7% a year afterwards.

The guy you want to follow in regards to oil is the guy who started shorting it aggressively back in June 2014.

Did anyone here short oil back in June? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Predicting the future is tricky business. Heck just a couple of days ago we had every weatherman - with their "Stormtracker 9000 Radar systems" calling (with 100% certainty I might add) for an imminent -within hours- historic snowstorm in NYC. And how did that work out?

We have a basic saying out here. "Only Greenhorns and fools try to predict the weather." The same is true in stock prediction.

No one knows the future. And when they state that as "fact"...well what does that make them...

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

 

[St. Louis Bob]

GL with the new venture siff. When you get it up and running and have more time, I'd love to hear more about it.

+1

+1

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Wish I had some AMZN.

&

They made 214 million, stock goes crazy. GOOGL makes 4.1 BILLION, a 41% increase over the same period, stock rallies a little on a possible dividend or cash pay out.

Seems rational

About a $28 swing now including the -$8 it was down initially after market yesterday. This is more like it damn it! ool

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.

What does this mean?

Oil futures? Buying crude and storing away thousands of barrels? Oil ETF like USO? Gasoline? Companies like Exxon, BP, Chevron?

Please explain this surefire way to triple/quadruple my money. To get that kind of return in the next 5 years will cut my retirement age by 10-15 years if I can just take quadruple what I have now and add 7% a year afterwards.

The guy you want to follow in regards to oil is the guy who started shorting it aggressively back in June 2014.

Did anyone here short oil back in June? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Predicting the future is tricky business. Heck just a couple of days ago we had every weatherman - with their "Stormtracker 9000 Radar systems" calling (with 100% certainty I might add) for an imminent -within hours- historic snowstorm in NYC. And how did that work out?

We have a basic saying out here. "Only Greenhorns and fools try to predict the weather." The same is true in stock prediction.

No one knows the future. And when they state that as "fact"...well what does that make them...

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Personally it seems like if you see stories about commodity X is going to continue to go higher, you sell. If commodity X still has a long ways down, you buy. If commodity X has bottomed, you sell.