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Stock Thread (39 Viewers)

fantasycurse42 said:
Eminence said:
Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.
Click to expand...
What does this mean?

Oil futures? Buying crude and storing away thousands of barrels? Oil ETF like USO? Gasoline? Companies like Exxon, BP, Chevron?

Please explain this surefire way to triple/quadruple my money. To get that kind of return in the next 5 years will cut my retirement age by 10-15 years if I can just take quadruple what I have now and add 7% a year afterwards.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't mind owning shares of Exon and Chevron. They are still good companies trading at very reasonable prices right now. They are both like 70-80% of their 52 week highs. Long-term, that's what its all about. You'd have to ignore the bad news for a year or so...

Like Em would even give us bad advice. Em, are you still running that hedge fund? I never remembered to send that check smh

 
ShaHBucks said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Eminence said:
Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.
Click to expand...
What does this mean?

Oil futures? Buying crude and storing away thousands of barrels? Oil ETF like USO? Gasoline? Companies like Exxon, BP, Chevron?

Please explain this surefire way to triple/quadruple my money. To get that kind of return in the next 5 years will cut my retirement age by 10-15 years if I can just take quadruple what I have now and add 7% a year afterwards.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't mind owning shares of Exon and Chevron. They are still good companies trading at very reasonable prices right now. They are both like 70-80% of their 52 week highs. Long-term, that's what its all about. You'd have to ignore the bad news for a year or so...

Like Em would even give us bad advice. Em, are you still running that hedge fund? I never remembered to send that check smh
Click to expand...
Buy USO and let Em do your K-1's for you, and extensions as applicable. He's an accountant, one-stop shop suite of services as a part of the hedge fund.

 
mquinnjr said:
ShaHBucks said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Eminence said:
Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.
Click to expand...
What does this mean?

Oil futures? Buying crude and storing away thousands of barrels? Oil ETF like USO? Gasoline? Companies like Exxon, BP, Chevron?

Please explain this surefire way to triple/quadruple my money. To get that kind of return in the next 5 years will cut my retirement age by 10-15 years if I can just take quadruple what I have now and add 7% a year afterwards.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't mind owning shares of Exon and Chevron. They are still good companies trading at very reasonable prices right now. They are both like 70-80% of their 52 week highs. Long-term, that's what its all about. You'd have to ignore the bad news for a year or so...

Like Em would even give us bad advice. Em, are you still running that hedge fund? I never remembered to send that check smh
Click to expand...
Buy USO and let Em do your K-1's for you, and extensions as applicable. He's an accountant, one-stop shop suite of services as a part of the hedge fund.
Click to expand...
Ive told you this 17 times but I love your avatar.

 
Eminence said:
Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.
Click to expand...
man, i was all-in on oil for the exact reason... but your post is making me second guess myself.

well that and the fact that i forgot about the stupid K1's

 
ShaHBucks said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Eminence said:
Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.
Click to expand...
What does this mean?

Oil futures? Buying crude and storing away thousands of barrels? Oil ETF like USO? Gasoline? Companies like Exxon, BP, Chevron?

Please explain this surefire way to triple/quadruple my money. To get that kind of return in the next 5 years will cut my retirement age by 10-15 years if I can just take quadruple what I have now and add 7% a year afterwards.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't mind owning shares of Exon and Chevron. They are still good companies trading at very reasonable prices right now. They are both like 70-80% of their 52 week highs. Long-term, that's what its all about. You'd have to ignore the bad news for a year or so...

Like Em would even give us bad advice. Em, are you still running that hedge fund? I never remembered to send that check smh
Click to expand...
Chevron with good earnings... They offset the falling oil prices with chemical sales. They are cutting budgets too which will offset some of the price drop in oil, but I still think some of these companies share prices haven't fully realized the gigantic loss in crude prices yet.

For a long-term investment > 5 years, I see no reason not to buy now, but I think short term, these companies will still see pressure for at least another 3-6 months. It looks like they are still searching for the bottom. I'm usually incorrect on this stuff, so BUY BUY BUY!

 
I'm going to make a healthy investment (maybe 25% of portfolio) into oil at some point, but I am waiting for a trend reversal. After reading and studying up on it for long enough, I am going to diversify this huge chunk of my portfolio I'm putting into oil as if it was its own portfolio.

I think it will look something like this:

10-15% XLE

10-15% USO

10% UGA

15% XOM

15% COP

10-15% BP

10-15% CVX

I read a million articles (Oil will test $60 - fail, Oil will test $50 - fail)... I'm fairly confident oil almost definitely tests $40, and I think it fails again... This is what OPEC wants. They can handle the short term pain which will eventually cause a bunch of more expensive Crude producers to fold. They aren't letting off the gas. This is going to continue. I need to find the exact article, but I read that production costs for the Saudis is something like $15 a barrel (which is basically as cheap as it gets), they can handle the pain and when others fold, prices will increase again as production will slow. We still haven't reached this phase yet, and it may be months or even a year or two until we do.

Prices are far from stabilizing and even farther from starting to climb again in the near term.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I'm going to make a healthy investment (maybe 25% of portfolio) into oil at some point, but I am waiting for a trend reversal. After reading and studying up on it for long enough, I am going to diversify this huge chunk of my portfolio I'm putting into oil as if it was its own portfolio.

I think it will look something like this:

10-15% XLE

10-15% USO

10% UGA

15% XOM

15% COP

10-15% BP

10-15% CVX

I read a million articles (Oil will test $60 - fail, Oil will test $50 - fail)... I'm fairly confident oil almost definitely tests $40, and I think it fails again... This is what OPEC wants. They can handle the short term pain which will eventually cause a bunch of more expensive Crude producers to fold. They aren't letting off the gas. This is going to continue. I need to find the exact article, but I read that production costs for the Saudis is something like $15 a barrel (which is basically as cheap as it gets), they can handle the pain and when others fold, prices will increase again as production will slow. We still haven't reached this phase yet, and it may be months or even a year or two until we do.

Prices are far from stabilizing and even farther from starting to climb again in the near term.
Click to expand...
For what it's worth I read 3 articles and a few eminence posts and took 0.4% of my portfolio and went hog wild with UCO a few days ago... and bro I am ALREADY up $120

As ALL-IN as I am on this black gold thing, I think 25% of one's portfolio on anything other than a diversified index fund is sheer madness.

And why would you spread your money so thinly all across one basic idea. Why make it complicated?

If you think oil is going up, just buy the damn oil... It's like you're trying to diversify across the same exact idea to somehow feel better about yourself for it.

It would be like me saying that I think corn prices are going to rocket, so I"m going to buy corn, corn syrup, popcorn, yellow corn, white corn, corn meal, people who are in charge of corn advertising, john deere because they make corn harvest machines, and butter because people like to butter their corn.

When you could've just bought the corn... and been done with it.

 
Dentist said:
and bro I am ALREADY up $120
Click to expand...
I assume this mostly due to the 6% it has gained today?

I'm going to make a big bet on oil. USO isn't the end all be all for Oil, neither is XLE, gasoline, Exxon, etc... I'd like to spread it around.

In terms of the percentage of overall portfolio going in, the way I look at it:

This isn't a company heading south, they didn't make bad investments and they're going under. This is a commodity, one that isn't going away in our lifetimes that we have a serious dependence on (I'm fairly certain this doesn't need to be said, but whatever). If we slide into the mid $30's at that point I will not be waiting for a trend reversal, as the upside will far outweigh the downside IMO.

If I wind up in while it is still in a tailspin, I need to mentally prepare for some possible pain, with a long term hold strategy. While not a 3-400% play as our resident Hedge Fund CEO suggests, I think in 4-5 years this certainly will represent fantastic odds at 10-15% a year kind of returns over that period.

 
Dentist said:
Eminence said:
Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.
Click to expand...
man, i was all-in on oil for the exact reason... but your post is making me second guess myself.

well that and the fact that i forgot about the stupid K1's
Click to expand...
Interpreting and reporting a K-1 from an MLP is not splitting the atom, just a pain/time consuming, and can be frustrating with filing deadlines. Here's a good primer: http://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2010/12/02/tax-guide-to-master-limited-partnerships/

 
mquinnjr said:
ShaHBucks said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Eminence said:
Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.
Click to expand...
What does this mean?

Oil futures? Buying crude and storing away thousands of barrels? Oil ETF like USO? Gasoline? Companies like Exxon, BP, Chevron?

Please explain this surefire way to triple/quadruple my money. To get that kind of return in the next 5 years will cut my retirement age by 10-15 years if I can just take quadruple what I have now and add 7% a year afterwards.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't mind owning shares of Exon and Chevron. They are still good companies trading at very reasonable prices right now. They are both like 70-80% of their 52 week highs. Long-term, that's what its all about. You'd have to ignore the bad news for a year or so...

Like Em would even give us bad advice. Em, are you still running that hedge fund? I never remembered to send that check smh
Click to expand...
Buy USO and let Em do your K-1's for you, and extensions as applicable. He's an accountant, one-stop shop suite of services as a part of the hedge fund.
Click to expand...
Now that's talent. I'm counting all the pennies I'll earn and save right now

 
fantasycurse42 said:
ShaHBucks said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Eminence said:
Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.
Click to expand...
What does this mean?

Oil futures? Buying crude and storing away thousands of barrels? Oil ETF like USO? Gasoline? Companies like Exxon, BP, Chevron?

Please explain this surefire way to triple/quadruple my money. To get that kind of return in the next 5 years will cut my retirement age by 10-15 years if I can just take quadruple what I have now and add 7% a year afterwards.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't mind owning shares of Exon and Chevron. They are still good companies trading at very reasonable prices right now. They are both like 70-80% of their 52 week highs. Long-term, that's what its all about. You'd have to ignore the bad news for a year or so...

Like Em would even give us bad advice. Em, are you still running that hedge fund? I never remembered to send that check smh
Click to expand...
Chevron with good earnings... They offset the falling oil prices with chemical sales. They are cutting budgets too which will offset some of the price drop in oil, but I still think some of these companies share prices haven't fully realized the gigantic loss in crude prices yet.

For a long-term investment > 5 years, I see no reason not to buy now, but I think short term, these companies will still see pressure for at least another 3-6 months. It looks like they are still searching for the bottom. I'm usually incorrect on this stuff, so BUY BUY BUY!
Click to expand...
If you look at the chart on oil today, it literally skyrocketed within seconds of this post :doh:

 
fantasycurse42 said:
As I type my rationale for oil dropping below $40 a barrel it rallies 8% :lmao:

I'm the worst.
Click to expand...
You have to ask yourself these questions honestly:

What are you really? Are you an investor (a person who buys/sells a stock with the expectation of holding it for a period of months-years)? Are you a trader (a person who buys/sells a stock with the expectation of holding it for days to-weeks)? Are you a day-trader (a person who buys/sells a stock with the expectation of holding it for minutes-hours)?

What you are determines your time frame and how you much you should be paying attention to your positions. And it's critical that you adhere to the appropriate time frame. The investor whose time-frame is (mis) aligned to the time frame of a trader will find himself making terrible decisions - and often at the very worst time.

I'm going to take it most of you consider yourselves investors. So here is the tip.

STOP PAYING ATTENTION TO THE TICK BY TICK MOVEMENT OF THE MARKET!

Look at your positions 1x per week and only after the Friday close to between the Monday open. That way all your decisions cannot be immediate and you'll have time to determine if and what kind of action you should take.

Investors don't hit home runs often. The goal of the investor is to hit lots and lots of singles. For that they give up the chance for a home run, but they also minimize the chance for a strike-out.

The investor might not make 100% on an trade in Oil. Maybe he makes 25%. 25% is GREAT! Let me tell you- if you can make 25% on 3-5 positions every year and the just track along with the $SPY with the rest...you will do really really well for yourself over the long haul.

What I'm saying is- the "investor" hasn't missed out on a long positioned Oil trade at all because the opportunity for entering that long position has yet to be presented on an appropriate time frame aligned to his investing goals.

My $UGA post from last week - was a "trading" time frame post. Not the entry signal for investors.

There are a lot of paradoxes in golf and in investing. One for golf might be: "The harder your swing the shorter it flies." The same is true for investment decisions.

 
That UCO purchase i made last week has been about the biggest win I've ever had in such a short time frame. We're doubling up on this one bros.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
fantasycurse42 said:
ShaHBucks said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Eminence said:
Oil is still the play. I don't care if it takes 5 years to triple or quadruple your money.
Click to expand...
What does this mean?

Oil futures? Buying crude and storing away thousands of barrels? Oil ETF like USO? Gasoline? Companies like Exxon, BP, Chevron?

Please explain this surefire way to triple/quadruple my money. To get that kind of return in the next 5 years will cut my retirement age by 10-15 years if I can just take quadruple what I have now and add 7% a year afterwards.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't mind owning shares of Exon and Chevron. They are still good companies trading at very reasonable prices right now. They are both like 70-80% of their 52 week highs. Long-term, that's what its all about. You'd have to ignore the bad news for a year or so...

Like Em would even give us bad advice. Em, are you still running that hedge fund? I never remembered to send that check smh
Click to expand...
Chevron with good earnings... They offset the falling oil prices with chemical sales. They are cutting budgets too which will offset some of the price drop in oil, but I still think some of these companies share prices haven't fully realized the gigantic loss in crude prices yet.

For a long-term investment > 5 years, I see no reason not to buy now, but I think short term, these companies will still see pressure for at least another 3-6 months. It looks like they are still searching for the bottom. I'm usually incorrect on this stuff, so BUY BUY BUY!
Click to expand...
If you look at the chart on oil today, it literally skyrocketed within seconds of this post :doh:
Click to expand...
I took a position on NOV. I had them on my watchlist since November. They pretty much dominate in making drilling equipment for almost every product offered. They don't have much competition either. So I see it as investing in a company that supplies the entire industry, not just a single driller. I think a fair price is in the 80's, but I'm not into timing the market. I'll hold it for a year or so and then reevaluate it then.

 
Taking a gamble on SSYS. Dropped 33 - 35% on reportedly a weak earnings report. I'm willing to take the risk on a quick rebound.

 
NajehHejan said:
Dentist said:
NajehHejan said:
Hey Dentist, what price did you get in UCO and when you looking to cash out? Subject to change, of course.
Click to expand...
500 shares at 6.90Put in an order for 500 more at 6.50, never filled.

Will sell half at 13.80
Click to expand...
Thanks. Think I'm jumping in tomorrow. Gas is creeping back up. Oil seems a lock to go higher.
Click to expand...
hope you got in early today.. we're up another 10%

+1200 and climbing now.. there's no stop... doubling up now seems like too low of an estimate.

Edit: sorry.. +1300, i didn't refresh and had already gotten a few more percent.. hate to be inaccurrate

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dentist said:
NajehHejan said:
Dentist said:
NajehHejan said:
Hey Dentist, what price did you get in UCO and when you looking to cash out? Subject to change, of course.
Click to expand...
500 shares at 6.90Put in an order for 500 more at 6.50, never filled.

Will sell half at 13.80
Click to expand...
Thanks. Think I'm jumping in tomorrow. Gas is creeping back up. Oil seems a lock to go higher.
Click to expand...
hope you got in early today.. we're up another 10%

+1200 and climbing now.. there's no stop... doubling up now seems like too low of an estimate.

Edit: sorry.. +1300, i didn't refresh and had already gotten a few more percent.. hate to be inaccurrate
Click to expand...
Had a busy morning and didn’t get in until now. Grabbed 400 @ $9.49. Already starting to plummet. I suck bad.

ETA: Just kidding, was down a few pennies. Hoping to ride this to 15

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Personal speculation on Oil this morning is that many people have been waiting for the "right time" to buy and a bit of upward momentum caused them all to jump on board. I do not believe this is a sustainable recovery and that once people realize that, it will go back down.

 
Drifter said:
Personal speculation on Oil this morning is that many people have been waiting for the "right time" to buy and a bit of upward momentum caused them all to jump on board. I do not believe this is a sustainable recovery and that once people realize that, it will go back down.
Click to expand...
I agree with this...

I should point out, I was wildly incorrect last week though, so we can assume oil is on the way to $500.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Drifter said:
Personal speculation on Oil this morning is that many people have been waiting for the "right time" to buy and a bit of upward momentum caused them all to jump on board. I do not believe this is a sustainable recovery and that once people realize that, it will go back down.
Click to expand...
I agree with this...

I should point out, I was wildly incorrect last week though, so we can assume oil is on the way to $500.
Click to expand...
keep posting this drivel, every time you post i make another $100

 
Can we try and make sure this thread stays a place where we actually rationally discuss investing and not another wagering thread?

 
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