Stock Thread (44 Viewers)

[Redwes25]

Really interested in seeing what happens to China tomorrow. Arresting folks because of stock market collapse doesn't seem the best way to help the markets but interested in seeing what happens.

 

[Mario Kart]

Really interested in seeing what happens to China tomorrow. Arresting folks because of stock market collapse doesn't seem the best way to help the markets but interested in seeing what happens.

Shanghai down 4.7% right now.

 

[NREC34]

Bear market. Going to get worse when the Fed raises rates.

 

[John Bender]

Gooooooooooood morning.

 

[cosjobs]

Gooooooooooood morning.

Here's the #### storm I've been predicting for four days

 

[cosjobs]

TVIX already up 30% since I bought yesterday morning.

 

[lod01]

Bear market. Going to get worse when the Fed raises rates.

They need to just raise rates and get it over with. Who cares about China. We export zero to them. We are rolling along. The rest of the world is full of losers. Go Trump!

 

[cosjobs]

Today's gambles

TVIX 2X volatility

SQQQ inverse Nasdaq

SDS inverse S&P

RUSS inverse Russia

FXP inverse China

FAZ inverse financial

EEV inverse emerging mkts

Added BIS, TZA and F

Sold 2/3s of RUSS on the crude pullback this am.

 

[John Bender]

TVIX already up 30% since I bought yesterday morning.

Yeah - saw that this morning. Big shot up.

 

[cosjobs]

Bear market. Going to get worse when the Fed raises rates.

They need to just raise rates and get it over with. Who cares about China. We export zero to them. We are rolling along. The rest of the world is full of losers. Go Trump!

F Trump, but yes to raising rates. I think the uncertainlty is at least as harmful as the 25 BPs. Plus, it gives us back a bullet to use. I'd like to have several bullets...

 

[lod01]

Bear market. Going to get worse when the Fed raises rates.

They need to just raise rates and get it over with. Who cares about China. We export zero to them. We are rolling along. The rest of the world is full of losers. Go Trump!

F Trump, but yes to raising rates. I think the uncertainlty is at least as harmful as the 25 BPs. Plus, it gives us back a bullet to use. I'd like to have several bullets...

Another reason why they need to start now. They will say that the markets have already factored that in after the initial selloff.

 

[cosjobs]

And I'm loving Ford with the 150 sales.

In for 1000 at 13.74

 

[cosjobs]

Bear market. Going to get worse when the Fed raises rates.

They need to just raise rates and get it over with. Who cares about China. We export zero to them. We are rolling along. The rest of the world is full of losers. Go Trump!

F Trump, but yes to raising rates. I think the uncertainlty is at least as harmful as the 25 BPs. Plus, it gives us back a bullet to use. I'd like to have several bullets...

Another reason why they need to start now. They will say that the markets have already factored that in after the initial selloff.

Yes. Yes yes. Much better than QE, imo

 

[mquinnjr]

 

[cosjobs]

Might have been foolish putting such a large equity stake in F on a day like this, but they really crushed their estimates, the new F150 proves that consumers love ugly and if the numbers had come out on a positive day, it'd be up 5-10%.

Plus I need at least one equity in my portfolio.

 

[cosjobs]

Might be stupid and load up on some more UCO before the closing bell

WSJ on oil price surge

Who's coming with me?!?!?!!?!?

Bender wait

 

[lod01]

AAPL death cross has formed.

Death cross formed yesterday on the S&P.

 

[John Bender]

Should have bought back some TVIX. Was being greedy and hoping for another dip below 12 and missed it.

Missed out on thousands. :black eyed guy:

 

[fantasycurse42]

Trading strategy, thoughts appreciated:

WTI has intense volatility after the EIA report every Wednesday at 1030am. This will usually set the tone for the rest of the day, sometimes the week. A very bullish report and UCO flies, a very bearish report and SCO flies. Strategy as follows:

At 1025am buy an equal dollar amount of both equities. Immediately after buying both, set a stop at a 3-4% loss for each (equal for both). Typically, WTI will either sink or jump. The stop will be triggered for the bear and then hold the jumper for a few hours and sell at a 5-10% gain.

Thoughts?

ETA: If it whipsaws, you're ####ed.

 

[lod01]

Trading strategy, thoughts appreciated:

WTI has intense volatility after the EIA report every Wednesday at 1030am. This will usually set the tone for the rest of the day, sometimes the week. A very bullish report and UCO flies, a very bearish report and SCO flies. Strategy as follows:

At 1025am buy an equal dollar amount of both equities. Immediately after buying both, set a stop at a 3-4% loss for each (equal for both). Typically, WTI will either sink or jump. The stop will be triggered for the bear and then hold the jumper for a few hours and sell at a 5-10% gain.

Thoughts?

ETA: If it whipsaws, you're ####ed.

Go for it.

 

[cosjobs]

Trading strategy, thoughts appreciated:

WTI has intense volatility after the EIA report every Wednesday at 1030am. This will usually set the tone for the rest of the day, sometimes the week. A very bullish report and UCO flies, a very bearish report and SCO flies. Strategy as follows:

At 1025am buy an equal dollar amount of both equities. Immediately after buying both, set a stop at a 3-4% loss for each (equal for both). Typically, WTI will either sink or jump. The stop will be triggered for the bear and then hold the jumper for a few hours and sell at a 5-10% gain.

Thoughts?

ETA: If it whipsaws, you're ####ed.

I like it okay, but seems kind of risky getting the trades in a timely manner.

For the next month, I'm thinking of buying DWTI (and selling UCO) when crude goes about 47.50 and UCO (and selling DWTI) whenever it goes below 40.50

 

[cosjobs]

Trading strategy, thoughts appreciated:

WTI has intense volatility after the EIA report every Wednesday at 1030am. This will usually set the tone for the rest of the day, sometimes the week. A very bullish report and UCO flies, a very bearish report and SCO flies. Strategy as follows:

At 1025am buy an equal dollar amount of both equities. Immediately after buying both, set a stop at a 3-4% loss for each (equal for both). Typically, WTI will either sink or jump. The stop will be triggered for the bear and then hold the jumper for a few hours and sell at a 5-10% gain.

Thoughts?

ETA: If it whipsaws, you're ####ed.

I like it okay, but seems kind of risky getting the trades in a timely manner.

For the next month, I'm thinking of buying DWTI (and selling UCO) when crude goes about 47.50 and UCO (and selling DWTI) whenever it goes below 40.50

What if you bought both shares at 10:25 and at 10:30, sell off the loser and hold the winner for a ride?

 

[lod01]

Russell 2k forms the death cross.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-cross-patterns-spread-like-a-bearish-virus-2015-08-28

 

[cosjobs]

Crude has had the most stable 15 minutes in a week. Can't decide which way to go a 45.35

 

[fantasycurse42]

Trading strategy, thoughts appreciated:

WTI has intense volatility after the EIA report every Wednesday at 1030am. This will usually set the tone for the rest of the day, sometimes the week. A very bullish report and UCO flies, a very bearish report and SCO flies. Strategy as follows:

At 1025am buy an equal dollar amount of both equities. Immediately after buying both, set a stop at a 3-4% loss for each (equal for both). Typically, WTI will either sink or jump. The stop will be triggered for the bear and then hold the jumper for a few hours and sell at a 5-10% gain.

Thoughts?

ETA: If it whipsaws, you're ####ed.

I like it okay, but seems kind of risky getting the trades in a timely manner.

For the next month, I'm thinking of buying DWTI (and selling UCO) when crude goes about 47.50 and UCO (and selling DWTI) whenever it goes below 40.50

What if you bought both shares at 10:25 and at 10:30, sell off the loser and hold the winner for a ride?

There could be some volatility and headfakes, which is why I like the security of the 4% stop. I'm >90% the winner moves a lot more than 4% when it is decided and I think this report is extremely important with the crazy volatility in oil for the last week, but sometimes the market takes a few minutes to shake it out.

I was on the UWTI train since Friday, dropped out today at $1.28 for a decent profit... The fundamentals haven't changed and peak consumption season is just about over, but the momentum is swinging... Really conflicted with this one.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Trying to watch if there is either panic selling or exuberant buying to end the day and scalp a quick day trade.

 

[fantasycurse42]

QID @ $37.98... Closing this out at EOD regardless.

ETA

Out at $38.19

 

[fantasycurse42]

TVIX 19.62

Too early

Stopped out at $19.2 FML

 

[lod01]

Like clockwork, here comes ######## to proclaimed doom and gloom.

 

[cosjobs]

TVIX 19.62

Too early

Stopped out at $19.2 FML

in tvix at 13.94 on MOnday pre-market

Its selling after hours at 18.72

Closed at 19.39

So there's a little optimism that tomorrow will not be as volatile.

I think its going to stay bumpy, so I'm staying in, says the guy who still has 50 shares of DWTI at $210

 

[cosjobs]

Like clockwork, here comes ######## to proclaimed doom and gloom.

Buy FXP

 

[fantasycurse42]

TVIX 19.62

Too early

Stopped out at $19.2 FML

in tvix at 13.94 on MOnday pre-marketIts selling after hours at 18.72

Closed at 19.39

So there's a little optimism that tomorrow will not be as volatile.

I think its going to stay bumpy, so I'm staying in, says the guy who still has 50 shares of DWTI at $210

If the EIA report is bearish tomorrow, I might load the boat on DWTI... No production cut yet, no OPEC meeting for months, China collapsing, refinery maintenance season, oil demand falling due to seasonality...

Will see the numbers, API reporting plus 7.5M, that would basically mean kaboom for oil bulls.

 

[lod01]

Like clockwork, here comes ######## to proclaimed doom and gloom.

Buy FXP

Actually I just took my YANG win off the table today.

 

[lod01]

Death crosses for everyone.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-cross-patterns-spread-like-a-bearish-virus-2015-08-28?dist=tbeforebell

 

[fantasycurse42]

China market getting pumped bc of their big celebration. Markets closed there Thurs/Friday. One of their tools of allowing pensions to be invested will not end well. The rest of this week might be calm, but I think volatility will be gigantic next week.

 

[Sand]

How long will this drop last (started about 1:25)?

Not long...we're soaring now.

Figures. As soon as Schiff and Marc Faber come out saying the end is here, the markets take off.

Those two have called nineteen of the last two recessions. When a permabull like Cramer says to sell, wade in and buy with both fists.

This rodeo isn't over yet.

Patience, patience. Waiting until the S&P dips below 1900, then start accumulating again.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Trading strategy, thoughts appreciated:

WTI has intense volatility after the EIA report every Wednesday at 1030am. This will usually set the tone for the rest of the day, sometimes the week. A very bullish report and UCO flies, a very bearish report and SCO flies. Strategy as follows:

At 1025am buy an equal dollar amount of both equities. Immediately after buying both, set a stop at a 3-4% loss for each (equal for both). Typically, WTI will either sink or jump. The stop will be triggered for the bear and then hold the jumper for a few hours and sell at a 5-10% gain.

Thoughts?

ETA: If it whipsaws, you're ####ed.

Getting ready to take my positions...

 

[cosjobs]

Trading strategy, thoughts appreciated:

WTI has intense volatility after the EIA report every Wednesday at 1030am. This will usually set the tone for the rest of the day, sometimes the week. A very bullish report and UCO flies, a very bearish report and SCO flies. Strategy as follows:

At 1025am buy an equal dollar amount of both equities. Immediately after buying both, set a stop at a 3-4% loss for each (equal for both). Typically, WTI will either sink or jump. The stop will be triggered for the bear and then hold the jumper for a few hours and sell at a 5-10% gain.

Thoughts?

ETA: If it whipsaws, you're ####ed.

Getting ready to take my positions...

My link

 

[skycriesmary]

Trading strategy, thoughts appreciated:

WTI has intense volatility after the EIA report every Wednesday at 1030am. This will usually set the tone for the rest of the day, sometimes the week. A very bullish report and UCO flies, a very bearish report and SCO flies. Strategy as follows:

At 1025am buy an equal dollar amount of both equities. Immediately after buying both, set a stop at a 3-4% loss for each (equal for both). Typically, WTI will either sink or jump. The stop will be triggered for the bear and then hold the jumper for a few hours and sell at a 5-10% gain.

Thoughts?

ETA: If it whipsaws, you're ####ed.

Getting ready to take my positions...

 

[shady inc]

Trading strategy, thoughts appreciated:

WTI has intense volatility after the EIA report every Wednesday at 1030am. This will usually set the tone for the rest of the day, sometimes the week. A very bullish report and UCO flies, a very bearish report and SCO flies. Strategy as follows:

At 1025am buy an equal dollar amount of both equities. Immediately after buying both, set a stop at a 3-4% loss for each (equal for both). Typically, WTI will either sink or jump. The stop will be triggered for the bear and then hold the jumper for a few hours and sell at a 5-10% gain.

Thoughts?

ETA: If it whipsaws, you're ####ed.

Getting ready to take my positions...

It looks like UCO dipped after a poor report and just hit a new HOD. did it stay above your stop?

 

[fantasycurse42]

If I didn't get greedy, would've had a big win... IDK if day trading is for me. Stressful, eats into my day which is busy enough, and I'm just not that good

250 trades in the last month, net total $54. Funded the account with $70k, so the margin is almost $280k, and after tons of trades absolutely zero to show for it I'll wait for China to collapse and rates to go up, let the market stand on it's own two feet, and make long term buys with low fee ETFs, dividend plays, and long term growth stocks.

Edit, actually a net loss of $46, forgot about shifting $100 over from another account. Now I'm even more pissed.

 

[humpback]

If I didn't get greedy, would've had a big win... IDK if day trading is for me. Stressful, eats into my day which is busy enough, and I'm just not that good

250 trades in the last month, net total $54. Funded the account with $70k, so the margin is almost $280k, and after tons of trades absolutely zero to show for it I'll wait for China to collapse and rates to go up, let the market stand on it's own two feet, and make long term buys with low fee ETFs, dividend plays, and long term growth stocks.

Edit, actually a net loss of $46, forgot about shifting $100 over from another account. Now I'm even more pissed.

Do you mean greedy overall, or on today's trade? Today's trade looked like a disaster, if you stuck to your plan.

 

[fantasycurse42]

If I didn't get greedy, would've had a big win... IDK if day trading is for me. Stressful, eats into my day which is busy enough, and I'm just not that good

250 trades in the last month, net total $54. Funded the account with $70k, so the margin is almost $280k, and after tons of trades absolutely zero to show for it I'll wait for China to collapse and rates to go up, let the market stand on it's own two feet, and make long term buys with low fee ETFs, dividend plays, and long term growth stocks.

Edit, actually a net loss of $46, forgot about shifting $100 over from another account. Now I'm even more pissed.

Do you mean greedy overall, or on today's trade? Today's trade looked like a disaster, if you stuck to your plan.

It was $$$$ trade... Bought UWTI at 1.14 and triggered at 1.1, bought DWTI at $115, sold at $117, could've sold at $125 with no issues for a nice profit.

 

[humpback]

If I didn't get greedy, would've had a big win... IDK if day trading is for me. Stressful, eats into my day which is busy enough, and I'm just not that good

250 trades in the last month, net total $54. Funded the account with $70k, so the margin is almost $280k, and after tons of trades absolutely zero to show for it I'll wait for China to collapse and rates to go up, let the market stand on it's own two feet, and make long term buys with low fee ETFs, dividend plays, and long term growth stocks.

Edit, actually a net loss of $46, forgot about shifting $100 over from another account. Now I'm even more pissed.

Do you mean greedy overall, or on today's trade? Today's trade looked like a disaster, if you stuck to your plan.

It was $$$$ trade... Bought UWTI at 1.14 and triggered at 1.1, bought DWTI at $115, sold at $117, could've sold at $125 with no issues for a nice profit.

Well, that's not what you said you were going to do.

Trading is easy....in hindsight.

 

[fantasycurse42]

If I didn't get greedy, would've had a big win... IDK if day trading is for me. Stressful, eats into my day which is busy enough, and I'm just not that good

250 trades in the last month, net total $54. Funded the account with $70k, so the margin is almost $280k, and after tons of trades absolutely zero to show for it I'll wait for China to collapse and rates to go up, let the market stand on it's own two feet, and make long term buys with low fee ETFs, dividend plays, and long term growth stocks.

Edit, actually a net loss of $46, forgot about shifting $100 over from another account. Now I'm even more pissed.

Do you mean greedy overall, or on today's trade? Today's trade looked like a disaster, if you stuck to your plan.

It was $$$$ trade... Bought UWTI at 1.14 and triggered at 1.1, bought DWTI at $115, sold at $117, could've sold at $125 with no issues for a nice profit.

Well, that's not what you said you were going to do.

Trading is easy....in hindsight.

Should've inched the stop loss higher as DWTI gained... I thought it was going to the moon, went all the way to 129 today, greed ####ed me.

 

[fantasycurse42]

If I wasn't so ####### greedy, I have more than enough capital to scalp $300 a day... I just can't stick to the plan.

 

[humpback]

It doesn't really seem like you have much of a plan IMO, but that's the first step. The second is following it. Without both, it's pure gambling.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Buying TVIX Friday afternoon. China closed today and tomorrow, USA closed Monday. Market is nice and calm right now, dip being bought, China an afterthought... I get the sense Tuesday will be ugly.

 

[siffoin]

Buying TVIX Friday afternoon. China closed today and tomorrow, USA closed Monday. Market is nice and calm right now, dip being bought, China an afterthought... I get the sense Tuesday will be ugly.

Emotional trading is really setting yourself up to fail.

"Sensing" what the market might do is just that.

Trading isn't easy. And you really need to develop a set of rules.

The number one rule is:

Never Let Your Winners Turn Into Losers

Also need to have a formula for profits and losses. Start with: Risk $1 in order to make $2.

Let's say $TVIX is $13 on Friday and you expect it to go to $20 next week. Set your stop for $9.50, and your profit for $20. Then Ronco Rotisserie it. (Set it and forget it). With a Risk $1 to Make $2, you only need to be as accurate as a coin flip to make money- though you will find 50:50 odds are often pretty hard to meet. There've been times I've had a sustained win rate greater than 65%. That's extremely rare. Trades this year have been 55-60% in all markets drifting between those 2 percentages, and I think I'm at the top of my game.

A volatile market is much harder to trade than one less volatile. You need to figure out how to account for that volatility. While profits on wins can be significantly higher...losses will be greater too. Not only is it possible to have trades be significantly underwater - you should expect it. And the discipline to hold in that situation is tough and takes some balls. That's why you want to spend 99% of the time planning the trade - because you need to have the ability to take some punches. You should also look at trading smaller size. These past few weeks the size of my trades is at 1/2.

250 trades in a month is beyond stupid. The fact that you have been able to eek out a $54 profit is a miracle of Biblical proportions. And you should get down on your knees and thank the God you pray to for being so generous. You need to find your stock and one stock only---let's say $UCO---and knows its moves more intimately than your lovers'. And look for trades there. 1 maybe 2 per day- MAX. Optimal setups might only occur 4-6x per week.

Short term trading requires some form of technical analysis in order to pick optimal buys and sells. TA will also let you know if your risk is worth the reward. What I mean by this is - just because you have a signal doesn't mean you have to take it. Put the odds in your favor. If your are day trading off a 1 minute chart place the trades in the direction of the 60 minute chart. If your trading off a 60m chart place trades only in the direction of the daily chart.

Perusing the thread - the wisest move at potential points of inflection in a market are to take a wider view to determine your next one.

And that's all I have to say about that.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Thanks for the advice Siff... I just don't have the time during the day to go through individual trades and monitor charts, but I'd be happy to pay for advice or tag along on trades for a fee

Outside of being handed a buy with a stop loss / sell target, paying attention to the market on a minute by minute basis has not only been unprofitable for me, it has also cost me valuable time at my job.

I have a FA that handles a chunk of our assets, but I've always wanted to manage my own funds, I'm just bad at monitoring my own accounts and investing wisely. I think with the funds I oversee, I might just use the long term buy and hold method. I have no need for the cash, emergency funds elsewhere, and no major purchases on the horizon.

One fund I am giving strong consideration to putting a decent chunk 15-20% for a long hold is SPFF... Anyone invested in this one or a holder? 7% dividend and a much lower risk than the S&P from the HW I've done. It almost feels like a scam.

Before making a long term play, I would like a nice entry and I think we are in some serious volatility, so it might not be until the end of this year until I invest. I think China is on shaky ground and it will impact global markets, they still have room to fall IMO.

tl;dr

Anyone own any of the below:

SPFF

MDIV

VZ

Goog

SPY

IBB

XLK

XLE

COP

JPM

No idea how to invest in fixed income securities, so I hope the first two listed would accomplish this.