Was going to short them both early in the week because the Brexit decision has driven down tech stocks globally (both were down 3-4% following the decision, as were Microsoft and other big name techs). I'm thinking it will continue early in the week .fantasycurse42 said:If you're shorting something, why short what are prob viewed as the two safest stocks on the market? You'd want to short something that is viewed as a risky asset, something like Tesla.
FTR, I'm not saying to short Tesla, just giving an example.
The single biggest day of losses in the history of the stock market.Vincesanity said:No he probably only has a handful of people calling like yourself and he's probably ready to kick you to the curb. Good luck day trading!
If I'm all cash, I'm not paying him anything. FA's are like real estate agents, none of them will ever say now isn't a good time.Philo said:If you're going to ignore your FA's strong advice, what are you paying him for? And now that you've gone your own way, how will you judge how good he is? Whether or not your portfolio moves up or down from here, now none of it is due to him. Might as well get rid of him.
I don't think you understand what I'm saying.Was going to short them both early in the week because the Brexit decision has driven down tech stocks globally (both were down 3-4% following the decision, as were Microsoft and other big name techs). I'm thinking it will continue early in the week .
Gotcha. Thanks for the thought. Very enlightening. I guess that WOULD be where you could really see the needle move. If there is such a thing, I guess I'm on the conservative "short" side (instead of going for a big splash on something higher risk/moving, I'm just poking along.I don't think you understand what I'm saying.
If Google or Apple are falling hard (and Microsoft), EVERYTHING is falling hard. Those are some of the "safest" stocks from investors viewpoints. If you want to short something, you need to short things that have high international exposure, momentum stocks, funny valuations.
Netflix is one that would stand out to me.
My best advice is to not get greedy here.Gotcha. Thanks for the thought. Very enlightening. I guess that WOULD be where you could really see the needle move. If there is such a thing, I guess I'm on the conservative "short" side (instead of going for a big splash on something higher risk/moving, I'm just poking along.
I got luck last week and admittedly know I'm sticking my toes in something I'm still very green to so I went the route this morning of shorting AAPL on 100 shares. I'm already having stomach flips LOL.
Thanks again. This has become a favorite thread of mine to follow.
I was looking at them over the weekend... As I said earlier, I'm not a huge long buyer right now, but they seem to be positioned decently to withstand some headwinds.Grabbing 300 shares of C @ 39.19
NFLX down 3.5% Appl 1.5%... If people are fleeing, they'll be fleeing Netflix and their insane P/E way ahead of Apple and their low P/E of 10. Also, the flip side, when people feel comfortable to get back in, they're going back to safety at first, Google/Apple/Microsoft so you'll get caught on the wrong side their first too.Gotcha. Thanks for the thought. Very enlightening. I guess that WOULD be where you could really see the needle move. If there is such a thing, I guess I'm on the conservative "short" side (instead of going for a big splash on something higher risk/moving, I'm just poking along.
I got luck last week and admittedly know I'm sticking my toes in something I'm still very green to so I went the route this morning of shorting AAPL on 100 shares. I'm already having stomach flips LOL.
Thanks again. This has become a favorite thread of mine to follow.
I agree, there will be a day, maybe tomorrow or Wednesday with a DJIA gain of 3-400 points, but I don't think there will be a ton of follow-through on it.Reading the news it sure sounds like there will be a reversal, or else whatever happens with brexit will take a really long time to engage. This selloff on this news seems so dumb. I'm looking to repop international securities at earliest opportunity.
You just have not found the right adviser.If I'm all cash, I'm not paying him anything. FA's are like real estate agents, none of them will ever say now isn't a good time.
No they have not. I have been telling them for months as this rally was taking place that we will have heavy volatility this summer. No question we would. So don't be surprised. Consistent communication via email news letters, quarterly calls, semi annual reviews helps a lot. I think the most important thing advisers can do is consistently communicate with their clients and get out in front of events like this.And to counter this dudes Vincesanity's point, I'd argue that your clients have been reaching out in much higher volumes Friday/today with some concern, no? The markets experienced a huge shock, this is when people get nervous.
My opinion is after the election we march to to new highs on the Dow and S&P thru 2017. I am going to get very defensive again come 3rd and 4th quarter of 2017.I agree, there will be a day, maybe tomorrow or Wednesday with a DJIA gain of 3-400 points, but I don't think there will be a ton of follow-through on it.
The upside is kinda #### and the downside has some room, I think there will be a lot of caution.
Don't see a DJIA really blowing much past 18k and S&P much higher than 2100 without some sort of unforeseen catalyst. Who knows, maybe the Fed decides to pump some QE into the system, I'd be a short term buyer with news like that.
This is at best IMO, at worst, we're entering bear market. Hence, the limited upside I see.We are in the 8th-9th innings of this latest bull market
But you've spoken to a good portion of your clients, regardless of who has made the calls. This is my point.I have had a couple of phone calls of course......but I was calling just about everyone (whom I have marked as more conservative clients as well as my equity sleeve clients) Friday morning as a proactive measure.
Yeah agree 100%But you've spoken to a good portion of your clients, regardless of who has made the calls. This is my point.
It is simple psychology, people get jittery when the risks start coming in. They need to know what is going on with their money.
Agree again. That is the best case scenario. The reason I see a little more juice is because of how slow the Fed has been in raising interest rates. People need yield to live and the Banks can't give anyone jack. Once interest rates start to normalize we can get back to true fundamentals driving stocks and bonds. However the ascent to normalized rates will yield a lot of pain and a true correction. But once we get through that #### storm we can get back into upward long term trajectory again (as has been the case for the last 80 plus years).This is at best IMO, at worst, we're entering bear market. Hence, the limited upside I see.
I just don't see this happening for a very very long time, the Fed has left us with no outs. I've stated in the mortgage thread now for about a year that 6% 30 years are a thing of the past (since they tie directly into the 10 year treasury yields). I'm confident the 30 year will be under 3% at some point in the next 12-36 months (which is about 20% lower than it is today). Most of the bond gurus kinda echo this sentiment if you read between the lines in their statements.Once interest rates start to normalize
A strong bear case. If interest rates don't start going up over the next year we are no doubt going to have some serious pain long term. They must pivot. When the Fed is too concerned with other Central Banks things will get worse for us. We are healthier than Europe and need to de-couple from them in regards to central bank coordination. They were two steps behind us in lowering rates and now this is the result. While I understand we are in a global economy.....we must be careful with our own monetary policy. We must be focused on our fundamentals and indicators. We should have been raising .25 every quarter since 1st quarter 2015......but we did not. Some would have even argued as early as 2014 to start raising rates (and I would have agreed with that). It's absurd we have had one raise....one. We should have been doing this for a year already. I know the Fed is not supposedly political nor swayed by politics......but I wonder how much of this is political (White House) persuasion. I seriously wonder. I have never seen anything like this in my life. It's insane. We pulled out of the recession years ago and never got our monetary policy back in line.I just don't see this happening for a very very long time, the Fed has left us with no outs. I've stated in the mortgage thread now for about a year that 6% 30 years are a thing of the past (since they tie directly into the 10 year treasury yields). I'm confident the 30 year will be under 3% at some point in the next 12-36 months (which is about 20% lower than it is today). Most of the bond gurus kinda echo this sentiment if you read between the lines in their statements.
We know for close to a fact that a rate hike is off the table in 2016, we also know there is going to be volatility leading up to the election. Treasury yields will continue to fall. I'd expect to be in the 1.2-1.3% range by November (which I believe will be all-time lows). The Fed can't raise the FFR, impossible. We have yields all over the world in negative percentages... I truly don't understand who would ever buy that? Why? There is no other investment that you are GUARANTEED to lose money on, just makes no sense. We didn't learn from the Japanese's mistakes of 20 years ago (as they're still stuck in this no interest rate/negative rate cycle with no end in sight) and we're heading down the same path.
We're kinda ####ed with interest rates, savers are done. Wouldn't be surprised within 5 years if it costs money to keep it in the bank.
What really scares me at this point is during crisis times, if you look historically, a central bank will reduce rates by 3-500 basis points, that is something that cannot be done right now. They're out of tools. All they have left is liquid injections, and honestly, after an unprecedented period of doing this, we're still sitting on minimal growth.
I just don't see how there aren't rocky times ahead. I think the only things keeping the markets from taking a 20% haircut right now is the public's confidence in the central banks, I don't have that confidence.
YMMV, just my opinion.
Well at least Micky D's re-instituted 49 cent hamburgers 69 cent cheeseburgers on Wednesday and Sunday's again LOL.Food inflation is the biggest story no one is paying attention to.
Remember the $5 Footlong? Now it's $5 for a six-inch, a 100% price increase
Fast food places rarely have anything on the dollar menu besides snacks (that are getting smaller). They don't even call it the "dollar menu" anymore. Used to be you could get a double cheeseburger for 89 cents. Now, check out the "Dollar And More" menu (really... if it's everything priced under a dollar, and more than a dollar, isn't that the whole menu?), and the burger is a buck-sixty at least.
Chicken is outrageous nowadays. You'll pay eight to ten dollars a bird at the grocery store. And wings? Anyone remember ten cent wings? Maybe 25 cent wings? Now places advertise proudly they offer the best deal on wings at a mere 75-cents per. 75 cents per wing! Insane.
People get all focused on inflation being "so low" at only 2%, but throw the cost of food for an average person's budget, and I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was double or more.
Add in a shift in the size of the container. That won't even show up in inflation. Someone like subway is forced to raise prices because it's a 'foot long' sub. Other places can simply make the burger a little smaller for example. Candy bars..they are smaller. Some bean counter or other POS who came up with that idea probably got a giant promotion and bonus for screwing the rest of us without most people even knowing it.Philo said:Food inflation is the biggest story no one is paying attention to.
Remember the $5 Footlong? Now it's $5 for a six-inch, a 100% price increase
Fast food places rarely have anything on the dollar menu besides snacks (that are getting smaller). They don't even call it the "dollar menu" anymore. Used to be you could get a double cheeseburger for 89 cents. Now, check out the "Dollar And More" menu (really... if it's everything priced under a dollar, and more than a dollar, isn't that the whole menu?), and the burger is a buck-sixty at least.
Chicken is outrageous nowadays. You'll pay eight to ten dollars a bird at the grocery store. And wings? Anyone remember ten cent wings? Maybe 25 cent wings? Now places advertise proudly they offer the best deal on wings at a mere 75-cents per. 75 cents per wing! Insane.
People get all focused on inflation being "so low" at only 2%, but throw the cost of food for an average person's budget, and I wouldn't be surprised if the real number was double or more.
Gotta pay that $15/hour wage.Todem said:Well at least Micky D's re-instituted 49 cent hamburgers 69 cent cheeseburgers on Wednesday and Sunday's again LOL.
Other than that....yeah. Fast food prices are getting stupid expensive. Same crappy food and service, just cost's more and more every year.
ericttspikes said:Wondering if it's too late to go to cash or hedge for the possible Trump victory? If the Trump-lite guys in Britain can crater the international markets, hate to think what will happen to my retirement savings when the nationalist, anti-free trade guy wins here.
Nice pop.John Bender said:I still think buying some TWLO right now where it is is prudent.
This company has a chance to really blow up (in a good way)
I'm all out if it looks like he has any chance of winning. It's not too late now.ericttspikes said:Wondering if it's too late to go to cash or hedge for the possible Trump victory? If the Trump-lite guys in Britain can crater the international markets, hate to think what will happen to my retirement savings when the nationalist, anti-free trade guy wins here.
It's a low volume rally.This rally feels manufactured to me.
Just found it last month.BTW: I just discovered www.finviz.com
What an absolutely fantastic site.
A little skeptical... Mainly sidelined today. Hopefully fundamentals will come back into play. Last weeks numbers weren't especially bullish, we'll see what tomorrow brings.