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Stock Thread (28 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
With my 401k, I have stayed the course (no surprise, the performance there has done much better than anything else I have participated in), but with other brokerage accounts I've done the same as you... Some big hits and some big strikeouts. I'm in the same boat as you with how I handle all of my brokerage accounts moving forward - all ETF's, heavily diversified, hardly any stocks.
In fact, as of now, I'm only including 3 stocks in there... AAPL, AMZN, & FB. I'm not looking for the monsters like Cobalt that GM and others are riding in here (congrats!), just a small select group of companies I think will be dominant players 10-20 years out.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Oh yea, this market is getting overheated, no? All it does is go up, I mean that is basically the theme 8 years running, how long can it last? At this point, it is basically an everyday occurrence, another 50-150 points for the Dow.
What scares me the most is A) how bullish EVERYONE is B) I haven't seen/read any talk lately of pullback, recession, etc...
Some volatility is healthy, I almost look at this behavior as highly unhealthy TBH.
What scares me the most is A) how bullish EVERYONE is B) I haven't seen/read any talk lately of pullback, recession, etc...
Some volatility is healthy, I almost look at this behavior as highly unhealthy TBH.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Re: Cobalt - I work for a very unique firm. Once in a blue moon we stumble upon a great money making endeavor and load the damn boat on it. We are hired for our uniqueness and willingness to swing ####### hard at an idea we believe in. This is what we did in 2004-2007 with uranium so we have cache....Did it again with Amaya on the equity side 2014. We're at it again with cobalt and that's really our only focus right now. We've filled one warehouse in CT with material and are on to another warehouse down the road. So in my professional life, I often feel like the guy strapped to the missell in Dr. Strangelove....I'm thrilled and scared to death at the same time.
Personally, I allocate my portfolio to lever off what my team is doing while still not putting myself at great risk. I spent 8 years as a trader for a dedicated short seller who was all in on the neck of the housing collapse. So I'm conflicted. I am long long long cobalt and some other stocks I have good visibility to and very concentrated. And yet my experience tells me a HUGE ####### shoe is going to drop. And when it drops, that fall is coming from way up high and will be excruciating.
I might sell a few things and put out some 2x and 3x inverse ETFs. As Han Solo would say "I got a bad feeling about this".
But go cobalt go. We started buying material at $10.80. paying above $20 now. Twice it broke $50....In 1977 and 2008. That was without the EV revolution. This #### gonna get crazy.
Personally, I allocate my portfolio to lever off what my team is doing while still not putting myself at great risk. I spent 8 years as a trader for a dedicated short seller who was all in on the neck of the housing collapse. So I'm conflicted. I am long long long cobalt and some other stocks I have good visibility to and very concentrated. And yet my experience tells me a HUGE ####### shoe is going to drop. And when it drops, that fall is coming from way up high and will be excruciating.
I might sell a few things and put out some 2x and 3x inverse ETFs. As Han Solo would say "I got a bad feeling about this".
But go cobalt go. We started buying material at $10.80. paying above $20 now. Twice it broke $50....In 1977 and 2008. That was without the EV revolution. This #### gonna get crazy.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
What do you think the catalyst is? Something we see now, or something unforeseen like a massive Trump blunder TBD?
Just to add, we haven't seen any real volatility since a year ago, which was strong selling to start the year and then an immediate recovery. A few days of Brexit, immediate recovery. I think we saw 8-10 red days in a row leading to the election (totaling a whopping 2.5%) and an immediate recovery to a new stratosphere that hasn't stopped for 3 months straight.
Outside of the start of 2016 (which recovered very quickly), we haven't seen any real volatility in a long time. The complacency and just BTFD no matter what mentality is what frightens me.
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Barring some type of panic related to an exogenous shock (terrorist attack/war/natural disaster), I think there is room to run for a few months yet. Not to be political in here, but I think the risk of that type of shock is being under-priced given Trump.fantasycurse42 said:
We are in late cycles of the expansion though. Leading indicators/yield curve need to be watched closely. 10 year is going to test the December 15th level soon, watch what happens.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Coupled with where the FFR is (.5-.75), kinda uncharted territory, right? Usually late cycle they should be much higher.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
I guess my simplest answer would be that we are overbought. That we are overdue for a correction. That's the "Down Theory" part of me talking.
My worries are rate increases, another housing correction, political uncertainty, global policy uncertainty or maybe China selling our paper/debt (although I'm not mentally equipped to defend that one)...Redmond Longhorn is pretty bright. We go way back. Think we both feel the complacency in the markets is a bad omen. He's much smarter than me, though. Even if he got married a second time.
My worries are rate increases, another housing correction, political uncertainty, global policy uncertainty or maybe China selling our paper/debt (although I'm not mentally equipped to defend that one)...Redmond Longhorn is pretty bright. We go way back. Think we both feel the complacency in the markets is a bad omen. He's much smarter than me, though. Even if he got married a second time.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I guess one phrase that has stuck with me over the last few years when I'm exercising caution and I think we're in that phase, although it appears it can go on for a very long time:
The markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
It is to the point where I really feel sorry for bears, they're just getting steamrolled, and I honestly see their POV which I think makes sense, but the market has just disconnected from reality. Our government debt is being sold, Washington DC is a ####### disaster, and our leader is a buffoon. That's just the political risks and the tip of the iceberg, doesn't even touch on valuations, risks, etc.
The markets can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
It is to the point where I really feel sorry for bears, they're just getting steamrolled, and I honestly see their POV which I think makes sense, but the market has just disconnected from reality. Our government debt is being sold, Washington DC is a ####### disaster, and our leader is a buffoon. That's just the political risks and the tip of the iceberg, doesn't even touch on valuations, risks, etc.
We are getting to the tipping point. They have claimed the bears are throwing in the towel so that means we are close. The articles predicting a selloff have disappeared so that means we are close as well. Once we hear, 'you gotta be in this market', we will collapse soon after. I'm thinking the debt hitting 20T may be the tipping point and that will be in a couple months. There will be fake outrage about it and the world is ending talk. Trump may even cause it himself by ranting about considering defaulting on the debt.fantasycurse42 said:
Here's an article about it back on Jan 5th. http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2017/01/05/Why-Debt-Limit-Next-Threat-US-Economy
There will be a little dance about it in WASH. How awful it is and that it can't continue, a selloff maybe and then 2 months later we will be at 20.3T and climbing again and they will forget all about as they move onto some other topic....like they have every other time it has hit a milestone.
GoBirds
Footballguy
You can probably give better insight into this than I can but can rates afford to go much higher without crushing everyone holding debt from everyday people to our countries debt?
Everyone says rates have to go up.....which seems to make sense. Our company is in real estate and I have recently looked to refinance some debt on a commercial property. Usually with local banks you can find options for 3 to 5 year terms and MAYBE 7 on a good day. If you go to life insurance companies 10 year options are available and sometimes longer. In 2012 we locked in a 10 year loan at 4.75% and were ecstatic. Here we are 5 years later and I found an option at a local bank to lock in 10 years at 4.75%......never seen 10 years before locally or the aggressiveness. Through life insurance companies we have found options at 4.3% for 10 years. Awesome rates if you buy that we are getting 3 rate hikes this year and rates are headed up. Found 15 year options with a rate of 4.5%?!?!!!
Understanding what this all means is above my pay grade but the fact that insurance companies a lot smarter than I am are willing to offer 15 year debt at 4.5% blows my mind. To lock in that long they have to be pretty confident there are serious headwinds to rates going too much higher? Are lenders accepting that rates can't go up and this is the new normal?
The Big Guy
Fear the Blitz
No doom and gloom guys, I have to sell off a batch of my portfolio to hep pay for an expansion project on my house and that means the market will skyrocket.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Just spent about 45 minutes skimming articles everywhere, everything is bullish, everyone is bullish... ####### Marc Faber the biggest bear of all time likes China to go up 15% this year.
Buy airlines and all transportation, buy emerging markets, buy banks big, buy any laggards to the rally, buy buy buy.
Maybe these are the sell signals?
Buy airlines and all transportation, buy emerging markets, buy banks big, buy any laggards to the rally, buy buy buy.
Maybe these are the sell signals?
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Finally found an article that says sell, Dallasnews.com 
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/personal-finance/2017/02/13/kotlikoff-get-stock-market-now
Edit: & another that talks of the upcoming crash, written by ............... Capital Gold Group
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/capital-gold-group-three-signs-130000357.html
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/personal-finance/2017/02/13/kotlikoff-get-stock-market-now
Edit: & another that talks of the upcoming crash, written by ............... Capital Gold Group
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/capital-gold-group-three-signs-130000357.html
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dschuler
Footballguy
I can see banks continuing as rates continue to hike up. I'm not a big fan of transportation,energy, or airlines though. Transportation in general is extremely competitive and energy is overpriced after a huge transfer of wealth when all these companies were on the verge of bankruptcy. I think Healthcare is the most undervalued sector right now. Even investing in safe generic funds like IBB or XBI could net you 25% this year. I expect many Pharma companies to shoot up several hundred percent from their current lows just like CHK and FCX did last year.
I'm am amateur so ignore me at no peril. But I am bearish. I was at 100% equities until just about market 20K, now I'm about 50% stocks, 35% cash and 15% gold. Will be selling stocks steadily the next two weeks after grabbing dividends. My concern is very narrow and its name is Donald. I don't see the sustainability of his presidency and I'm surprised everyday how the markets don't seem to care. But he scares me on many levels, economic isn't even at the top. I'd rather miss out on same gains (even significant ones) as I play it safe than risk a significant loss due to our new Supreme Leader. I don't see how this ends well. And I haven't even talked about how expensive the market is now.
Not going deep into monetary policy here, but yeah. Fed would be better off forcibly creating NIM by selling off securities portfolio than raising the rate.
This is the stock thread and I mostly deal in the big picture. I don't day trade or any of that (too busy), so YMMV
NREC34
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Been keeping an eye on gold... Feels like some sneaky/smart money has been buying - based on projected hikes, a roaring market, strong dollar, etc - this should be much much lower. The only thing in gold's favor are inflation projections for those hedging, but even that shouldn't be holding it up like it is, IMO.
Todem
Footballguy
If the market poops they will poop with it. So buy more of it when the market poops.
I like BRK'B and have owned it for 2 decades. But it does not pay any dividend. It is a pure growth holding company. A wonderful stock to own though long term.
Todem
Footballguy
I have a tired old saying/rule about gold.
Buy gold when the price of it is a cheap suit, and sell it when it has the price of an expensive suit. Again, I think a 2-3% max allocation is fine. But once you buy more you really take a lot of risk as it is a highly volatile commodity. 5% max allocation for the most aggressive investor profile. But be cautious and don't hesitate to sell it when the going is good. I took a new position in FEGIX back in October when the miners were beaten down badly. Up almost 90% at one point sold off 2% (I keep a 2% allocation and we went up to 4% after that pop) to get back to my 2% target. It did drop 40% since then (still up 60%). But I use FEGIX (First Eagle Gold Fund I Share class) and they have a lot in the senior mining companies and just a little in pure bullion. The real value was in the beaten down and battered miner stocks and not so much the actual bullion. The miners have vastly out performed the price of gold in that same time period. So IMO, watch the miners more so than the actual gold they dig for, those companies pay dividends, and can give you a much bigger bang for your buck but still be the same type of equity hedge you are looking for instead of just pure gold. Take a look below where I compare a gold fund that invests primarily in mining companies and some bullion vs the ETF GLD which just indexes the price of gold.
FEGIX 10/1/15 - 11.78
FEGIX 8/11/16 - 22.00 (up 87%)
GLD 10/1/15 - 106.86
GLD 8/11/16 - 129.12 (up 20%)
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Todem
Footballguy
Right there with you. Overweight Pharma and Bio Technology. That sector can easily pop 20% this year. GILD, BMY, BIIB, AMGN, AGN...all looking very inexpensive (BMY not so much but when it drops below 50 I have been a buyer). GILD yield at this level is great, and they are flush with billions in clean cash on the balance sheet and can easily make some key acquisitions to boost their pipeline, and they will continue to raise that dividend. Huge value in this sector. In fact...the biggest value IMO of any sector since they started getting slaughtered last year after Hillary's tweeting.
I literally came to post about this...great timing. This thing consistently outperforms the S&P 500 over time. What % of your portfolio do you have in it?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/RobWilliams/Albert-Edwards-Federal-Reserve-Janet-Yellen-Alan-Greenspan/2017/02/16/id/774002/
Here is a bearish article... Take it FWIW, guy is a permabear.
He does mention late cycle and the Fed is too late, I tend to agree.
Here is a bearish article... Take it FWIW, guy is a permabear.
He does mention late cycle and the Fed is too late, I tend to agree.
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Todem
Footballguy
Perma Bears are right once every 8-10 years. What’s really hilarious is if you listened to him in 1996......your would have missed the last 20 years of gains in equites.
While what he talks about makes sense.....it is the cyclical nature of economic cycles. This is capitalism. Inflate, deflate, inflate again rinse and repeat.
The key is to have high quality equites, that pay strong and rising dividends, and when the market corrects, your still getting a healthy yield, the companies you own adjust to the economic climate, and then recover all while maintaining their dividends.
No doubt PE’s are getting frothy. No question we are are the late innings of this bull market. Take this time to rebalance your portfolio, maybe build some cash for any expected expenditures in the next 18 months, and make sure you are confident in everything you own for the long term.
It is a fools game to try and time the market both on the upside and downside. I did build some cash near year end and am still participating greatly in this run. But I will look to build some more cash shortly, the closer we get to 21,000 on the Dow. My 401K/IRA accounts? Invested 100%....always. It is ear marked for when I turn at least 66 and no sooner.
Edwards said this:
“What we are seeing now are the traditional cyclical price pressures that occur toward the end of the economic cycle,” Edwards said.
So a slight to moderate recession is very much on the table for 2018 as simply a by product of rising interest rates which can easily slow the housing market, plus more proposed stimulus from Trump which can lead to higher inflation. What does that mean? In the short term you may give back 10-15% maybe even 20% peak to trough but it will bounce back over time and the long term. I think most of us are young enough to withstand a market correction, not panic or worry and keep rolling, saving and investing for the long term. I don’t think we are in 50% correction territory like 2008. God no. At least I hope not.
Different story if you are within 5 years of retirement though. Totally different mind set and portfolio mix and a far more cautious approach.
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dschuler
Footballguy
I like all Healthcare, including medical devices. Medical devices are the new sexy and popular sector big funds are pouring money into to avoid the whole drug pricing mess. I think Pharma/Bios will give better gains overall, but medical devices seem much safer right now.
NREC34
Footballguy
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Not in any particular order here. GILD, UNH, DGX, VGHCX
Possibly looking to position my IRA in a different direction. I have not contributed this year nor do I think I will be anytime soon unless I make other sacrifices. However, the healthcare talk is interesting as far as healthcare stocks go. I currently have a couple oil stocks with good dividends and I am satisfied with those dividends but am wondering if changing to healthcare is a "better" short/longer term goal. The dividends in healthcare are much smaller percentage wise so I'm curious if that should be a concern of mine or nah?
Possibly looking to position my IRA in a different direction. I have not contributed this year nor do I think I will be anytime soon unless I make other sacrifices. However, the healthcare talk is interesting as far as healthcare stocks go. I currently have a couple oil stocks with good dividends and I am satisfied with those dividends but am wondering if changing to healthcare is a "better" short/longer term goal. The dividends in healthcare are much smaller percentage wise so I'm curious if that should be a concern of mine or nah?
Mario Kart
Footballguy
VRX... what the hell happened to that thing last year? Hope you bought in after April or later. Geez.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/video/david-stockman-watch-coming-market-221120641.html
Stockman says a crash is coming within days.
Stockman says a crash is coming within days.
NREC34
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I think what he says makes a lot of sense - Now, do I believe it? That is an entire different question... This guy isn't a moron, and if you watched the entire video, what he says sounds pretty smart. If the Fed hikes (and they absolutely 100000% have to IMO, they're so far behind) and these massive tax reforms don't start taking shape, then yes, I can see some aggressive selling. This is a guy who understands the legal side of everything and he seems to think it is impossible given the numbers that we can get away with these huge tax reforms. With that being said, this market has shrugged off any bad news for years now and kept buying no matter what. I also think a lot of the positive economic indicators we have been seeing lately are extremely priced in already. The market has been buying for years waiting for what we are seeing now, if you keep buying, you're of the ilk that these positive economic indicators are going to keep rolling in for years to come, I don't see that happening. Furthermore, outside risks that go beyond these points have been ignored and aren't close to priced in.
To top it off, when every headline on CNBC says get on board, it starts feeling like it is time to sell IMO.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'd recommend everyone give the video a watch, I'm actually going to watch it again in a little, have something to take care of at 1, but after.
This guy is worth listening to, just to hear the content and viewpoint.
Granted, someone calling for a crash in days has the probability of hitting like 1 in 10,000.
This guy is worth listening to, just to hear the content and viewpoint.
Granted, someone calling for a crash in days has the probability of hitting like 1 in 10,000.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Did some more reading about the Border Adjustment Tax, the Trump tax reforms, and some other things - my conclusion:
Kinda how I see the stock markets right now
Kinda how I see the stock markets right now
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Honestly debating a strategy of taking S&P futures short into the weekend and covering Sunday nights. Can't see a reason for a huge gap on any Sunday night, but a big Trump blunder on any weekend could be a reason for a big gap down. Worst case, lose a few points Sunday night until it hits.
dschuler
Footballguy
First of all, I stayed in Valeant even after St. Louis Bob told me to get out, should have listened.Mario Kart said:
I did start buying in the $30s, I actually sold FCX and CPXX to get into this (stupid me). Although I made out pretty good on those two, I left tons of money on the table and lost my rear end on Valeant. There are many issues with this company, which is why the stock price has fallen almost 95%.
Goods: I would challenge anyone to find a company that does 10B in revenue and over $4B EBITDA with only a $5.5B market cap. Even the most conservative estimates on these numbers alone would have this over $60 per share. They have some highly sought after drugs, and have some great name brands. They own the best eye company in the world in Bausch and Lomb, no one would really dispute that. They own what was the largest independent GI pharma company in the world in Salix. They sell over 1,000 products sold all around the world and have 50+ this year to launch. They also have some of the greatest investors of our time invested heavily into this stock. Bill Miller, who beat the S&P 500 average for 15 straight years (unheard of), believes this stock is worth $60+ in its current status. Bill Ackman, who was touted as "Baby Buffet" before his meltdown with this company, owns almost 10% in stock as well as huge options play that expire in 2018. John Paulson, the man the shorted the housing industry while the banks laughed at him (google Big Short movie), owns about 7% of the company as well. They just released a great psoriasis drug, which will generate a ton of revenue (People are trying to spin this into a bad thing with their milestone payment). It does contain a black box label, but so do the other large psoriasis drugs. They have a GI drug that does over $1B in revenue alone and has a great growth rate currently.
Bads: There are many of these, starting with the pricing. They are known for excessive drug price rate hikes, buying drugs that are about to lose exclusiveness and jacking the prices up. Then the Philidor scandal, which resulted in about 50mil of ghost accounting numbers. One positive from this so far is it actually looks as if there were a couple employees that were actually taking advantage of the company, rather than the company performing "Enron" like scandals. These first two bads lead into the biggest question of all, which is the ongoing DOJ investigations. This caused the stock to fall from $70 to $30s in just one day last year. Some have suggested fines in the Billions of dollars, which would be crushing. There haven't been any updates of note yet, other than the Philidor scandal. Keep in mind that there were also other slimy employees with bad histories besides Gary Tanner with Philidor. This is causing a lot of big funds from investing in the stock. There are other lawsuits, including T. Rowe Price suing the company because they owned stock in the $200s and watched to fall to nothing and they are accusing Valeant of inflating the stock price essentially. Sounds like whining and poor investment practices to me. What does all of this mean? What fines could the company be looking at? How dirty was this company? This is keeping big funds away from this stock. Once answers come out, the stock price could easily triple or get punished even further. They also have to maintain an EBITDA twice what they are paying in debt. Some large funds and players are worried that current asset sales current cause them to default on this number. It will not happen though IMO, as they sold $2.7B in assets sales which accounted for just over 4% of their annual revenue.
They had $30.4B in debt, but have lowered that to about $26.5B (once sales go through and including cash on hand) and will lower than to what I think will be about $20B by the end of the year without really hurting their annual revenue numbers. They overpaid for Salix by about $3.5B, worth about 12 and they paid about 15.5. However, B&L is projected to be worth anywhere between 18-25B alone. An IPO spin off or sale of this asset could completely wipe out essentially ALL debt. They own so many companies, and so many products as they were buying everything in sight over a 3 year period. It's a lot trying to sort everything out, but a lot of the assets (besides sprout and Salix) are worth much more now surprisingly than what they paid for them.
I mentioned Ackman has options expiring next year, and they are big on $60 calls. Bill Miller thinks this is a $60 stock. Joseph Papa, the new CEO, has an incentive package that pays a huge payout when the stock price hits $60. I don't think these numbers are all a coincidence. Once the DOJ clears Valeant or slaps them on the wrist, they get the debt down a few billion more, and keep stabilizing the company this will be $60 sooner rather than later. $60 would give this a market cap of a little over 20B, which is still very cheap (5X EBITDA and 2X revenue).
Therefore, I am pretty much all in at this point, and think more people should at least take a flyer on this stock. The downside is somewhat limited now, but this upside could be a 3 or 4 X payout in just a couple years.
Sand
Footballguy
There has been a huge amount of money on the sidelines for a while, years. Not saying that that's where it's coming from, but it isn't like there isn't capital available to go in.
dschuler
Footballguy
I've read a while back an article discussing the concerning trend of younger people investing less than any other point in time post world war era. If that's true and the market is doing good, it could be a lot of new fish getting into the sea. I'm talking people anywhere between 18 all the way up to their 40s. Also, from what I know it seems like the Chinese will be investing heavily in other countries and performing lots of M&A as their growth rate declines from its crazy rates. People might be moving back into stocks expecting a large tax cut in the future or offshore tax cut as well, which could give large dividends and instantly lower a companies P/E. That's some theories possibly.
Sand
Footballguy
Some of the stuff is great, some is dreck. Some is the same drumbeat over and over. Just like reading Mish or Mark Perry once you understand the perspective (ZH is a bit more complicated as it's multiple authors) you can get a lot out of the sites.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
A friend told me a stat tonight, I can't find anywhere to verify it, but it sounded realistic if you want to do the legwork and check.
"The DJIA is up 4.2% since the inauguration. That is the best 30 days post inauguration since Roosevelt."
Think about that for a second, that's 84 years and a bunch of presidents. Doesn't include the monster Trump run after the election until inauguration, but I'd bet that's up there in history too.
Market is always looking forward, not backwards. Does nobody see the lunacy taking place? Is everyone confident in Trump? Is he the best guy to enter the White House in almost a century? DC is a disaster, our president is a joke, we're a laughing stock and our debt is being sold.
Zero risk being priced in (and risk is ####### everywhere right now), full-on greed, frothy valuations (they were frothy pre-Trump rally), rate hikes imminent... If this isn't the stuff that fuels a major correction, I just don't know what does.
Trump, ####### Trump - guy is a maniac, just completely insane. One of the biggest presidential rallies ever.
Please, explain to me like I'm 5 years old how the market has not disconnected from reality.
"The DJIA is up 4.2% since the inauguration. That is the best 30 days post inauguration since Roosevelt."
Think about that for a second, that's 84 years and a bunch of presidents. Doesn't include the monster Trump run after the election until inauguration, but I'd bet that's up there in history too.
Market is always looking forward, not backwards. Does nobody see the lunacy taking place? Is everyone confident in Trump? Is he the best guy to enter the White House in almost a century? DC is a disaster, our president is a joke, we're a laughing stock and our debt is being sold.
Zero risk being priced in (and risk is ####### everywhere right now), full-on greed, frothy valuations (they were frothy pre-Trump rally), rate hikes imminent... If this isn't the stuff that fuels a major correction, I just don't know what does.
Trump, ####### Trump - guy is a maniac, just completely insane. One of the biggest presidential rallies ever.
Please, explain to me like I'm 5 years old how the market has not disconnected from reality.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-president-trumps-stock-market-performance-in-his-first-30-days-ranks-2017-02-17
Guess the stat came from here. I also assumed his first term, not fourth, so edit above to 72 years from 84.
Guess the stat came from here. I also assumed his first term, not fourth, so edit above to 72 years from 84.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I would love a reporter to ask this question asa follow-up to one of his comments from a Hillary debate:
"You said the market was a gigantic bubble waiting to pop. You mentioned as soon as the Fed raises rates, that'll happen. Market is up over 10% since the election and rates are going to rise. Is this bubble now even bigger?"
Answer:
"I'm a great leader, every one has bigly confidence in me. I fixed this huge bubble in my first 30 days!"
"You said the market was a gigantic bubble waiting to pop. You mentioned as soon as the Fed raises rates, that'll happen. Market is up over 10% since the election and rates are going to rise. Is this bubble now even bigger?"
Answer:
"I'm a great leader, every one has bigly confidence in me. I fixed this huge bubble in my first 30 days!"
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Starting to think the best time to sell will be after Trump releases his amazing tax reform. Let the market buy the rumor, then give it 2 weeks, reality hits, sell.
