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Also covered my CMG short while it was around $310 a few days back. While I still like the downtrend (and what a ride that was), think for the short term it found a bottom. Depending on reviews of queso, and Q3 report, probably looking to short again within the next 4-8 weeks, but TBD. 

 
The Big Guy said:
But that is better than the 800k that organ replacement currently costs. Saw that little happy tidbit on the news this morning discussing the treatment.
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Right, the range of prices from the outside panel was $400k-$750k using the $800k for stem cell transplantation as the rationale. I thought about it a little more today, and my new gut theory is that Novartis priced at the low end of the range to put pressure on Kite to price similarly. Novartis makes a ton of $$$ and has economies of scale when it comes to administration and shared services. Before the GILD buy, Kite had none of this and was going to be 100% dependent on CAR-T for income and a lower price has a direct impact on the bottom line. Novartis could directly hinder future R&D of companies like Kite and Juno who don't have additional income streams with this pricing. 

Also, Novartis is working with insurance companies to develop an "outcome based" reimbursement plan. Basically if you aren't cured after a month then insurance doesn't pay. Insurance companies should be on board with this I think and if it becomes standard for CAR-T reimbursement, it is going to put a higher barrier to entry if someone can make it cheaper but slightly less effective it may not be worth pursuing if you only get paid if it works. This can also hurt the smaller players and change the cost/benefit calculation for trying to determine whether to invest in an early stage treatment that will cost a ton to bring to market.

Just my random thoughts on this approval.

 
parasaurolophus said:
Obviously the people in here like to gamble(as do I). GM is recommending some rather risky OTC stocks and I remember the days of HEB, PRGN, and all sorts of other weird gambles. I have a scottrade account that I have kept pretty much just for these kinds of plays. 

Looking at 4 biotechs right now and curious if anybody knows anything or has any opinions. From what I am looking at I imagine the biggest factors to consider are likelihood of an offering or reverse split, possible audience for drug approval(is it a disease that has 5 people a year infected or 5 million), FDA date(bad news or good news possible), historical price(good news can definitely already be built into price), do they have other revenue, do they already have a royalty agreement in place(sometimes they have already sold off the drug to a bigger biotech), past successes/failures(if any), and what else is in pipeline. Obviously other factors, but from looking at lots of biotechs these seem to be what make them move north or south a great deal.

NEOS, CRIS, ABIO, and GTXI are the stocks. Right now leaning toward NEOS. They just did an offering in June and the price per share was 6.75. Stock is currently trading at 6.65. PDUFA date of 9/15/17 upcoming for an ADHD drug. Second place would be GTXI. I like that they have two possible good news events for the same drug both likely in September. Obviously could be two bad news events too though. 

Anybody care to speculate? 
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So I took a small position in all 4 of these. I screwed up with ABIO. Bought at 1.85 and sold after hours when news came out for 2.20(somebody bought a pile at like 2.50). It crashed a few days later to 1.35 and I bought back in thinking it had bottomed for no reason since the news was very good in fact. It continued to crash to 1.00. I sold on a bounce at 1.15 so I took a small loss of $80 bucks overall.

Bought 500 shares of CRIS at 1.70 and just sold today at 2.15. 

Bought 300 GTXI at 5.70 and sold at 6.10(of course it went up immediately after 50 cents) 

I still hold 500 NEOS at 6.80. PDUFA date is 9/15. I picked 4 very good ones I feel like, but flubbed one of them royally, kind of goofed on another and did well on the other. Dont want to get greedy with NEOS, but dont want to leave a bunch on the table.

Anybody have any advice?

 
What do you guys think about shorting Equifax? This reminds me of Chipotle and I'll explain the parallels:

CMG known for quality food, E. coli outbreak - sold hard right away, then kept selling hard. Equifax, known for their credit reporting and monitoring, just botched their specialty. Furthermore, shady practices from the executives. Bet there will be an SEC investigation, which will def keep pummeling this stock. 

I know nothing else of their fundamentals and am trying to gather as much as I can to see if it is worth jumping on the short train.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
What do you guys think about shorting Equifax? This reminds me of Chipotle and I'll explain the parallels:

CMG known for quality food, E. coli outbreak - sold hard right away, then kept selling hard. Equifax, known for their credit reporting and monitoring, just botched their specialty. Furthermore, shady practices from the executives. Bet there will be an SEC investigation, which will def keep pummeling this stock. 

I know nothing else of their fundamentals and am trying to gather as much as I can to see if it is worth jumping on the short train.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-07/three-equifax-executives-sold-stock-before-revealing-cyber-hack?ex_cid=SigDig

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-07/three-equifax-executives-sold-stock-before-revealing-cyber-hack?ex_cid=SigDig
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Intrusion happened on 7/29, they sold on 8/1, 8/1, & 8/2... Whether they knew or not, I would def expect an investigation of some sort, that won't help. 

What I'm really wondering is how much this will impact consumer/business confidence in Equifax and what the real damage to their business will be. This isn't a Home Depot or Target, this is supposed to be the source of where everyone gets their info. 

Maybe good to look at going long someone like Transunion? They're getting whacked 5% today, but maybe they're the beneficiary. 

All I know is there is an opportunity that just arose, I'd like to solve the equation and figure out how to capitalize. 

 
@Aaron Rudnicki

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3294441-suspect-trading-equifax-options-seen

- Equifax (EFX -12.9%) options are not exactly a high-volume product. In fact, in the entire month of July, just under 260 put options traded.

- So CNBC's Jon Najarian is scratching his head over activity on August 21, when someone purchased a full 2.6K September puts struck at $135. The roughly $156K investment is now worth more than $4M thanks to today's plunge in EFX's stock price.
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I mean, that's pretty ####### shady.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Intrusion happened on 7/29, they sold on 8/1, 8/1, & 8/2... Whether they knew or not, I would def expect an investigation of some sort, that won't help. 

What I'm really wondering is how much this will impact consumer/business confidence in Equifax and what the real damage to their business will be. This isn't a Home Depot or Target, this is supposed to be the source of where everyone gets their info. 

Maybe good to look at going long someone like Transunion? They're getting whacked 5% today, but maybe they're the beneficiary. 

All I know is there is an opportunity that just arose, I'd like to solve the equation and figure out how to capitalize. 
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:lmao:  Like the executives did? No way that was just a coincidence. They were unscheduled trades. Hopefully these pigs get slaughtered.

 
skycriesmary said:
:lmao:  Like the executives did? No way that was just a coincidence. They were unscheduled trades. Hopefully these pigs get slaughtered.
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I'm deep into articles right now and trying to figure out if this is going to waterfall and open the sell gates, or this is going to be contained. 

 
Jeez, I think this is heading south, but $500 in an hour is tough to pass on. Wish I would've slammed this one hard. I'm conflicted right now. 

I just can't fathom any reason anyone would be buying this right now, which is what makes it hard to cover. 

 
Seems like a lot of people are calling for the long overdue correction which is a pretty bad sign for us shorts.   Would love to sell today but stupid short term capital gains taxes would cost me at least an additional 10k. 

 
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St. Louis Bob said:
Seems like a lot of people are calling for the long overdue correction which is a pretty bad sign for us shorts.   Would love to sell today but stupid short term capital gains taxes would cost me at least an additional 10k. 
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Not ideal, but if you're still in TVIX, could offset the gain and wait for a better spot. 

 
When EFX is at a $100, I'm going to hate myself for leaving $6500 on the table. Already cost myself $2k by exiting Friday :hot:  

####!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This was so painfully obvious. They're going to be drowned in lawsuits & litigation. 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
I've been using days like today to lighten the load and start shrinking positions or shift into more conservative stuff. 

Feels like we've hit a 2006ish like period, calm before the storm. Think we'll stay in a 20-23kish range for the next 12-24 months before #### hits the fan. 

Might be a few years until a real buying opportunity presents itself.
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I have sold off a few winners (BRKB, BP, FB) hoping to either buy back at a discount or reallocate down the road.  Sitting on roughly 30% cash right now.   

 
sbonomo said:
I have sold off a few winners (BRKB, BP, FB) hoping to either buy back at a discount or reallocate down the road.  Sitting on roughly 30% cash right now.   
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After Q3 earnings, I'm going to start searching for some stocks to specifically look to short. Taking a market wide short stance is dangerous, but looking for some losers should be safer. 

& I'm about 40% cash, with a healthy amount of invested dollars in bonds. 

 
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I'm just so upset with myself for covering EFX Friday.

Every time I look at it, it is making a new LOD  :X

 
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Sand said:
All it takes is one empty headline for that one to pop.  (Ref:  look at TEVA today).  In the short term you made money - cash is good.
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Yes, but this one was so different... This was free money rolling in, and all I got was $375.

I don't use the term "free money" lightly, this was it. 

Credit reporting company with data breached, horrible PR response, and insider trading scandals to boot. Blatantly more than a one day sell off and I bailed like an idiot. Literally left 10% on the table in one trading session, botched it so bad. 

Furthermore, if I hadn't covered so quick, I'd still be letting this ride and I highly doubt the low is in. 

Just ####ed it up so bad. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Yes, but this one was so different... This was free money rolling in, and all I got was $375.

I don't use the term "free money" lightly, this was it. 

Credit reporting company with data breached, horrible PR response, and insider trading scandals to boot. Blatantly more than a one day sell off and I bailed like an idiot. Literally left 10% on the table in one trading session, botched it so bad. 

Furthermore, if I hadn't covered so quick, I'd still be letting this ride and I highly doubt the low is in. 

Just ####ed it up so bad. 
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Maybe sell the Oct 125/130 bear call spread for $1.20. You risk $3.80 (about what you made on the short) and have a chance to increase your return by almost 33%.. Woo hoo

 
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Rattle and Hum said:
Maybe sell the Oct 125/130 bear call spread for $1.20. You risk $3.80 (about what you made on the short) and have a chance to increase your return by almost 33%.. Woo hoo
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I'm debating a short position around $117 - conflicted on how I'm going to play it. Max risk will prob be around $500 and a goal of $1500. Had my chance at a huge move yesterday and botched it... Still think this is tarnished and that won't change for a while, so downside is the play IMO.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I'm debating a short position around $117 - conflicted on how I'm going to play it. Max risk will prob be around $500 and a goal of $1500. Had my chance at a huge move yesterday and botched it... Still think this is tarnished and that won't change for a while, so downside is the play IMO.
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Sick to my ####### stomach... Had an open sell at $117.25. 

Man this was the easiest trade of all time, and instead of banking like $15-$20k, I pocketed $375 :hot:

 
St. Louis Bob said:
5000 TVIX at $17.94 :mellow:
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Was looking at it today... Market is flat and this is down 5%, doesn't add up to me. I don't really have the stomach for this one, nobody is prepared for any downside shocks... Someone is going to hit this right and make a killing, but who knows how & when.

GL SLB.

Just takes one big down day in the market to get you even.

 
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I've just been hoping back and forth between UWT & DWT for the last 6 months but I'll jump on this TVIX train for a week........ but for peanuts compared to Bob.

400 at 13.88, let's do this!

 
metoo said:
This is going lower, how do we make money? I've never shorted a stock.
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While I agree, it's moved 40% in 4 sessions - when I started posting about was when we made the easy money. I ####ed this one up so bad and it was clear as day to me, easiest trade ever and I have a nice dinner to show for it. Man I suck!!

 
fantasycurse42 said:
While I agree, it's moved 40% in 4 sessions - when I started posting about was when we made the easy money. I ####ed this one up so bad and it was clear as day to me, easiest trade ever and I have a nice dinner to show for it. Man I suck!!
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What if you think the stock is going to 40?

 
Next 4 biotechs I am looking at...

ACRX, ATRS, HRTX, AGRX. Will post more thoughts later, mostly dropping these here in case anybody knows anything glaringly obvious about them so I can save myself some time. 

 
out of 500 shares NEOS after hours tonight for $9.10. Cost basis of 6.80. Net gain of $1130. Lost my nerve and I am starting to have a feeling that it will actually go down with approval. 32.4 million offering not too long ago and could see major selling into approval. I also hate scottrade's afterhours functionality. So I could see having problems selling tomorrow morning upon announcement. Need to consolidate my accounts into TD ameritrade instead of having two. 

 
Sold out of OKTA the other day when it spiked up to 33ish (I sold around 31 and change). Love it long term, though. Hoping it drops a bit more but I think I'm going to start a small buy-and-hold position in the next couple of days, regardless.

 
Walking Boot said:
People have been calling for a correction for a long time. DOW's at 22K. If it drops 20%, it's down to 17,600... where it was on Election Day. So a 10 month setback. People were calling for a 10% drop at 15K and 16K. Seems we could take a large-ish drop and still be ahead of where people started calling for a dip. I don't know what is going on. 
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You're not supposed to. The game is rigged, and the retail investor will get slaughtered, as always. By the time we do know what's going on, it'll be on. 

 
Anyone have suggestions for a safe bond fund go a 3-12 month time frame? I want to move to 60-70% non stock for a while.

 
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