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Stock Thread (40 Viewers)

sbonomo said:
:eek:  - That is an aggressive move.  I really hope this pays off for you. 
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Thanks GB.  :thumbup:

Aaron Rudnicki said:
I'm not that invested, but have 700 at $16 or so.

it's going to hit at some point.
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I hope it is soon.  My optimism has returned as it seems like the bulls are back with the "nothing is going to derail this run" sentiment.  Tempted to make it 6000 shares.  My idea is to start dumping the higher priced shares if I need to as soon as I can avoid the wash rule. 

 
Talked the old man into dumping his GE shares this morning. Much of the proceeds will go to his distribution in December, and we are looking at international ETFs for the remainder. 

 
sbonomo said:
double up to average down my per share price. AMZN will probably hit zero now.
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Some how this came up with my google search for this thread...thankfully i sold around 400 for a small gain...i am an idiot of epic proportions :sadbanana:    @fantasycurse42 if you were going to make a bet on Tesla chitting the bed, true bet, what would it be (in the terms of a short or put) in say a 3-6 month time frame?  I should be coming to NY in a within the next few month, beers on me!

ETA: any input is welcome.  I really want to buy the TVIX but all my $$ is in at Merrill which does not trade in speculative securities apparently.

 
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sbonomo said:
Some how this came up with my google search for this thread...thankfully i sold around 400 for a small gain...i am an idiot of epic proportions :sadbanana:    @fantasycurse42 if you were going to make a bet on Tesla chitting the bed, true bet, what would it be (in the terms of a short or put) in say a 3-6 month time frame?  I should be coming to NY in a within the next few month, beers on me!

ETA: any input is welcome.  I really want to buy the TVIX but all my $$ is in at Merrill which does not trade in speculative securities apparently.
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Yeah, I'd like to do the same at this level and let it ride, but Merrill sucks goat balls.

 
In for 1000 shares of ACRX at 3.20. Looking for a nice 3 week ride. There seems to always be one last day of a sell off pre approval date so i will add another 1000 if it drops to 2.80ish. If not i hope to get out around 4.00 a couple days before pdufa date even though their approval chances look really good. Still debating ATRS and HTRX.

ATRS has two pending approvals, but they are for devices not drugs and i am not as familiar with that process and how stocks move around those dates.

Took AGRX out of consideration after reading more about their patch. 

 
sbonomo said:
Some how this came up with my google search for this thread...thankfully i sold around 400 for a small gain...i am an idiot of epic proportions :sadbanana:    @fantasycurse42 if you were going to make a bet on Tesla chitting the bed, true bet, what would it be (in the terms of a short or put) in say a 3-6 month time frame?  I should be coming to NY in a within the next few month, beers on me!

ETA: any input is welcome.  I really want to buy the TVIX but all my $$ is in at Merrill which does not trade in speculative securities apparently.
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Let me know when you're in town. 

I'm the wrong guy to ask about Tesla, I'm perpetually wrong about them :lmao:  I buy 6 month $350 puts, depending on the price, but remember the source, Tesla superbear lol

Bought 1,000 TVIX at $12.98.

 
I guess the market is tired of the NK drama... Unless they do actually follow through on a threat, it is all noise on the market front. 

This bull market is just unstoppable, lesson learned. 

 
I booked a loss of $500 this morning on TVIX. I don't think I'm ever trading that ticker again, at least not until the bull show signs of death.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I can already hear the bulls now, a day after NK fires a nuke at Japan and the market falls 3% about the opportunity of a lifetime :lmao:
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It's a crazy market, hard to rationalize. I want to tell myself with the lack of yield and increase in rates in the near future being realistic this could extend a little while longer. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I can already hear the bulls now, a day after NK fires a nuke at Japan and the market falls 3% about the opportunity of a lifetime :lmao:
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It's a crazy market, hard to rationalize. I want to tell myself with the lack of yield and increase in rates in the near future being realistic this could extend a little while longer. 

 
Ned said:
PLUG on a nice run recently.
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Buy more, sell, or let what I have ride? I got in at $2.42 then it fell but rose up now. My FCEL is a bit better for now but curious to do the same or just let it ride. I only have about $800 in each so...

 
I think it has to do mainly with mentality at this point. After a never ending bull market and an insane run, we're conditioned to just buy the dip and the illusion that nothing can ever go wrong is turning into a false reality. The Fed is 100% to blame, as the market will buy any dip knowing the downside is protected by the Fed. The Fed (along with all other central banks around the world) have destroyed yield and pushed investors strictly into stocks. The whole game has been rigged and who knows when it will end. When it does, it will get ugly, but that might not be for years. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/goldman-market-going-nowhere-for-2-years-but-these-stocks-will-still-work.html

This echoes something I said a month back about the market being in a 2006-2008 like period. I think much of the same... We'll find ourselves in a range and eventually something bad will happen. 

I'm preparing to move even more money to sidelines and just sit around waiting for what I feel is inevitable, even if it takes two years. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I think it has to do mainly with mentality at this point. After a never ending bull market and an insane run, we're conditioned to just buy the dip and the illusion that nothing can ever go wrong is turning into a false reality. The Fed is 100% to blame, as the market will buy any dip knowing the downside is protected by the Fed. The Fed (along with all other central banks around the world) have destroyed yield and pushed investors strictly into stocks. The whole game has been rigged and who knows when it will end. When it does, it will get ugly, but that might not be for years. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/goldman-market-going-nowhere-for-2-years-but-these-stocks-will-still-work.html

This echoes something I said a month back about the market being in a 2006-2008 like period. I think much of the same... We'll find ourselves in a range and eventually something bad will happen. 

I'm preparing to move even more money to sidelines and just sit around waiting for what I feel is inevitable, even if it takes two years. 
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Dude. At this point a correction wouldnt even phase me. I'm so far ahead of my targets right now I'm considering actually dabbling in actual stock picking. 

 
culdeus said:
Dude. At this point a correction wouldnt even phase me. I'm so far ahead of my targets right now I'm considering actually dabbling in actual stock picking. 
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I agree... I do however think we're mortgaging the future for these gains. 

Schiller's CAPE metrics are at levels not seen since 1929. When looking at 10 year gains, when levels are where they are now, historically, the next 10 years are likely to yield very little. 

 
Tesla delivered 260 Model 3's in Q3, originally forecast to build 1,500... They blamed the issues on "production bottlenecks." 

I think I am going to short 50 shares. Nothing crazy, but just a small amount of skin in the game. 

 
Anyways, on another note, I kind had an epiphany/aha moment. 2 weeks ago I was on vacation and read The Big Short, great read, highly recommend it. Anyways, those guys chased down 50,60,80,100 to 1 payouts by nailing something that should've been obvious in hindsight. Some of them took years for the trades to actually pay off as they spotted these disasters as early as 2004/2005. 

My aha moment was this weekend at Ashley's Furniture, while the thesis I developed was simple, the when/why/how to profit are far from figured out. 

I was laying on a mattress, $5k was the cost... There was a couple laying on a mattress next to me, mattress was about $1,800 - I overheard the wife saying it was too expensive. Anyways, I got off my mattress and wandered around. I came back and they were then laying down on the mattress I was previously on and talking with salesperson. Salesperson is saying she could def get them approved for financing, the total payments wouldn't be more than $140 (less than a Verizon bill she added). They were extremely interested and engaged, although I do not know what the outcome was. Walking through the showroom and I heard the same kinda pitch going on to another couple and there it was, my aha moment - WE ####### LOVE DEBT!! 

I remembered this article I read a few months back http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-households-will-soon-have-as-much-debt-as-they-had-in-2008-2017-04-03

The debt is really piling on, and while the economy is fine right now and this debt can be managed (and this is just consumer debt, FYI - don't even get me started on Government debt), what happens when we hit a recession? What happens with all of the leverage everywhere?

So, in summary, over the course of our lifetimes, I believe the markets will remain boom and bust, clearly a very long boom right now. The bust, once again will be driven by consumer debt. 

Now, I've got my thesis on what leads to our next collapse, I just need to start thinking about the when and why. Without too much research, I'd stick with my thoughts from the summer that the market is relatively safe for the next 12-24 months (assuming no major geopolitical conflicts), although, I'd think the trip down will be much quicker/uglier than the potential gains, so I remain risk averse for the most part right now. 

What I need to figure out is what is the catalyst, what will be the outcome when defaults start coming, and where is my 80-1 play that I can roll a $10k bet on? My first thought was something that seems improbable, but who knows... The dollar, maybe it implodes (not like it is useless, but value significantly falls). The government will start printing huge sums of money. Kinda improbable, but a thought. Maybe buying gold? IDK, but that is not the big longshot bet.... I need to figure out what is? 

Just thinking out loud here. 

 
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parasaurolophus said:
In for 1000 shares of ACRX at 3.20. Looking for a nice 3 week ride. There seems to always be one last day of a sell off pre approval date so i will add another 1000 if it drops to 2.80ish. If not i hope to get out around 4.00 a couple days before pdufa date even though their approval chances look really good. Still debating ATRS and HTRX.

ATRS has two pending approvals, but they are for devices not drugs and i am not as familiar with that process and how stocks move around those dates.

Took AGRX out of consideration after reading more about their patch. 
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Sold 751 shares of ACRX at 5.75 for a gain of $1899 after commissions . Still have 249 shares left due to partial fill after hours. Decided to just hold onto them in case it gets approval and spikes.

Bought 1000 shares of ATRS yesterday at $3.35.   

 
fantasycurse42 said:
What I need to figure out is what is the catalyst, what will be the outcome when defaults start coming, and where is my 80-1 play that I can roll a $10k bet on? My first thought was something that seems improbable, but who knows... The dollar, maybe it implodes (not like it is useless, but value significantly falls). The government will start printing huge sums of money. Kinda improbable, but a thought. Maybe buying gold? IDK, but that is not the big longshot bet.... I need to figure out what is? 
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I'd think that shorting something that structurally has lots of leverage and exposure is where you want to be for a big ask here.  I'd look at bottom of the barrel BDCs - though shorting will only get you 2:1.

 
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parasaurolophus said:
Sold 751 shares of ACRX at 5.75 for a gain of $1899 after commissions . Still have 249 shares left due to partial fill after hours. Decided to just hold onto them in case it gets approval and spikes.

Bought 1000 shares of ATRS yesterday at $3.35.   
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I am in with you - Post anything you see/hear please.  I will do the same.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
What I need to figure out is what is the catalyst, what will be the outcome when defaults start coming, and where is my 80-1 play that I can roll a $10k bet on? My first thought was something that seems improbable, but who knows... The dollar, maybe it implodes (not like it is useless, but value significantly falls). The government will start printing huge sums of money. Kinda improbable, but a thought. Maybe buying gold? IDK, but that is not the big longshot bet.... I need to figure out what is? 
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First off, if metal goes up 80x there is no USA anymore and the world is coming to an end, quickly.  You need an 80-1 shot that doesn't end up with you laying face down in a sewer.

 
Sand said:
I'd think that shorting something that structurally has lots of leverage and exposure is where you want to be for a big ask here.  I'd look at bottom of the barrel BDCs - though shorting will only get you 2:1.
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Interesting, but how would you structure a trade? I'd figure the bottom feeders are privately held.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Tesla delivered 260 Model 3's in Q3, originally forecast to build 1,500... They blamed the issues on "production bottlenecks." 

I think I am going to short 50 shares. Nothing crazy, but just a small amount of skin in the game. 
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Nice reversal here on Tesla too... Looks like it is trading in a channel and the technicals brought on buying at $330 - I'd like a little follow through and will prob look into my first position around $365, second around $380...

50 & 50. No chance I'm taking on more exposure than that here. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Nice reversal here on Tesla too... Looks like it is trading in a channel and the technicals brought on buying at $330 - I'd like a little follow through and will prob look into my first position around $365, second around $380...

50 & 50. No chance I'm taking on more exposure than that here. 
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Getting close to that $365 number... This thing shouldn't be more than $100. I've always wanted to short Tesla, never have though. 

I'm getting nervous thinking about taking a position, even a small one. Maybe I'll just go at in 25 lot increments.

 
Bought 700 shares of AGEN at 4.74. Not as big a fan of this stock,  well mostly because I dont always fully understand how biotechs that have partnered will move and i dont fully understand the partnership agreement they made, but I do believe there is a bit of money to be made at this price. I will be watching it carefully though and have a much tighter tolerance for any downward move. If approved they are due a $15million dollar payment from GSK. They also will not owe anything on the 100 million dollar loan they took out that GSK has agreed to pay back essentially as replacement of royalties. 

PDUFA date is 10/24/17.  

 
parasaurolophus said:
Sold 751 shares of ACRX at 5.75 for a gain of $1899 after commissions . Still have 249 shares left due to partial fill after hours. Decided to just hold onto them in case it gets approval and spikes.

Bought 1000 shares of ATRS yesterday at $3.35.   
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Sold my remaining 249 shares in premarket this morning for 2.10 for a loss of $281.00. They were given a CRL asking for more info on 50 patients. They will likely resubmit in late 2018 and we can enjoy another runup before approval date. 

This is further reinforcement of why I almost never hold until approval and why I never put more than a few thousand into any of these things. I only held this time because I was freerolling since the 1899 I made on the first batch covered my cost($3.20x249=796.8) and then some on the remaining 249. 

 
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sbonomo said:
I wish i would have gotten this before close, still sold the open for a nice $250 gain.  Thx gb  :hifive:
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No problem. I am actually shocked it isn't down more. 

In for 1000 shares of ATNM at $0.70. This one is literally like playing roulette, with just a tad better odds. They do have two drugs in the pipeline and one of them has news due out this qtr. The problem is reverse split is a very real possibility if they don't get above a buck within like 6 months. This is a several month hold with some serious upside and only $700 downside.

I also purchased 700 shares of KERX at $7.12. Hoping for about 2 bucks per share before pdufa date of 11/6. Odds of approval should be good. The market for their drug isn't that big though so there isnt the potential for a massive gain like some biotechs. I will post more on them in a bit. 

 
parasaurolophus said:
No problem. I am actually shocked it isn't down more. 

In for 1000 shares of ATNM at $0.70. This one is literally like playing roulette, with just a tad better odds. They do have two drugs in the pipeline and one of them has news due out this qtr. The problem is reverse split is a very real possibility if they don't get above a buck within like 6 months. This is a several month hold with some serious upside and only $700 downside.

I also purchased 700 shares of KERX at $7.12. Hoping for about 2 bucks per share before pdufa date of 11/6. Odds of approval should be good. The market for their drug isn't that big though so there isnt the potential for a massive gain like some biotechs. I will post more on them in a bit. 
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Well, that's that. ATRS trading at 2.20 premarket

 
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