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Stock Thread (25 Viewers)

PG&E Corporation PCG 1.36% shares remain under selling pressure Wednesday as the public utility continues to face scrutiny for its alleged role in California wildfires that have claimed at least 41 lives and destroyed thousands of businesses.

Pacific Gas and Electric Co.'s stock has lost nearly 20 percent since Oct. 11, when California officials confirmed an investigation into whether the utility's power lines played a role in igniting the fires. The total financial damage to the company, if found liable, could exceed $12 billion, SF Gate reported.

State Sen. Jerry Hill said he'll try to break up the utility or ban it from doing business in California if it's found negligible in the fire, the report said. 

"They've crossed the line too many times," Hill reportedly said. "They need to be dissolved in some way, split."

Not New To Penalties

Investors may have legitimate reason to be concerned about the wildfire. PG&E was found responsible for playing a role in a 70,000-acre fire in 2015 and the utility's liability could total more than $1 billion, The Sacramento Bee reported.

PG&E was also hit with $1.6 billion in fines and other costs connected with the 2010 San Bruno gas explosion, which almost resulted in the company declaring bankruptcy.

The investigation into the Wine Country fires could take months to complete. In the meantime, some Wall Street analysts aren't waiting for the conclusion of an investigation, including Goldman Sachs' Michael Lapides, who removed the stock from the firm's "Americas Conviction Buy List" on Monday, although Goldman Sachs did maintain a Buy on PG&E. 

 
Going to avoid PCG, while there is an opportunity if they aren't liable, the fact is the fire is so massive along with the damage it has caused and lives lost, their liability could destroy them. 

I read their insurance covers up to $800MM, they'll be bankrupted if they're liable as I think the damages and costs will far exceed that. 

On another note, I'm hoping we get a rally to end the year... I intend on moving almost everything to cash by years end, I won't bet against this market, but I'm 99% convinced I will absolutely be able to buy the S&P under 2k, Dow under 20k, and Nasdaq under 5k at some point in the future - I'll miss some dividends, I'll miss the final stretch of this melt-up, but I'll be very well positioned to for the death of this bull and inflated market. 

 
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Does anyone have thoughts on a stock to play healthy eating/ "food wit integrity" theme?
The original suspects (Whitewave, Panera, Whole Foods) are all gone and Chipotle no longer fits.

 
Looks like it is down on a downgrade and price target cut from BMO. There's UNFI, too, but that chart looks similar. BMO is citing pricing pressure, which might be a little better for UNFI, because IIRC they do a lot of private label.

 
We all make our own choices, GB. I don't want to think about how much money I've lost over the last few years, not just betting against the bull rally, but not participating in it. :X
Still feel bad.  Went quite a while without posting any trades and was knocking them out of the park.  Decided I would do so again and after a good start, here I am.  Luff ewe.

 
A buddy of mine loves MGPI, but he bought in the 30s or 40s iirc.  And I haven't had a chance to look into them at all.
Chart looks good. Doesn't seem to be much info around on them, but I think distilled spirits are increasing market share within alcoholic beverages, so that could be growth factor.

MGP Ingredients, Inc. is a producer and supplier of distilled spirits, and specialty wheat protein and starch food ingredients. The Company's distilled spirits include bourbon and rye whiskeys, and grain neutral spirits, including vodka and gin. The Company's segments include distillery products and ingredient solutions. The distillery products segment consists of food grade alcohol and distillery co-products, such as distillers feed and fuel grade alcohol. The ingredient solutions segment consists of specialty starches and proteins, commodity starches and commodity proteins. The distillery products segment also includes warehouse services, including barrel put away, barrel storage, and barrel retrieval services. It is also a producer of industrial alcohol for use in both food and non-food applications. The Company's distillery products are derived from corn and other grains (including rye, barley, wheat, barley malt and milo), and its ingredient products are derived from wheat flour.

 
Sadly.  At the start was just looking for a 5%+ correction, not a crash.  Now I probably need something in the range of a 7.5% pullback just to break even. 
You'd prob need back to back 2.5% down days, which kinda feels unlikely without some sort of geopolitical issue in the immediate term. If you got a week of down 3-4% you'd prob be not to far from even... Unfortunately, neither of those things have happened in a long time, and with these valuations, they should.

The problem is, when you look at the one year charts on this, it spikes for one day where it can gain, 20/30/40%, but then will get slaughtered almost right after (election being the outlier, where it rose for multiple days in a row). 

The real issue is just this market, DOW can't fall 100 points without the algos stepping right in. Every sell is a "buying opportunity," or that is what we've been conditioned to think... Nothing can go wrong & the Fed will keep the markets propped up at all costs. Valuations are super frothy, but that just doesn't matter to anyone, apparently. 

 
I feel like every imaginable piece of good news is baked into this market (and absolutely no negative possibilities are being considered), however that doesn't mean it can't stay irrational. 

Every new milestone (like 23k today), I shift more to cash... The bull can keep running for who knows how long, but the death of this bull will be super ugly.
How much of the run up are you going to end up missing before the crash? You'd probably be better off just riding out that crash if it happens.

 
How much of the run up are you going to end up missing before the crash? You'd probably be better off just riding out that crash if it happens.
No thanks. I've enjoyed the run up to begin with, if I miss the final 10-15% of it, so be it. 

Consumer mentality is shifting, everyone is starting to believe the market can never go down, crashes are impossible, etc... That's how these things happen, mom and pops will be all in again, and then the rug pull. If I'm sitting out 2018 or even 2019, it is what it is. Earnings should be solid this quarter, so I'm riding it into hopefully a Santa rally, then I'm gone and closing out to end the year.  

If you think the Dow will never see a day below 20k again, S&P below 2k, or Nasdaq under 5k, then ride it out, I'd disagree. 

 
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Bought 700 shares of AGEN at 4.74. Not as big a fan of this stock,  well mostly because I dont always fully understand how biotechs that have partnered will move and i dont fully understand the partnership agreement they made, but I do believe there is a bit of money to be made at this price. I will be watching it carefully though and have a much tighter tolerance for any downward move. If approved they are due a $15million dollar payment from GSK. They also will not owe anything on the 100 million dollar loan they took out that GSK has agreed to pay back essentially as replacement of royalties. 

PDUFA date is 10/24/17.  
Out this AM premarket at $5.15 for a gain of $287 . Missed the after hours window friday where it went off at 5.50. I honestly played this one very poorly. Was down .40 a share going into friday approval. I knew this approval was a slam dunk after reading 5-6 articles about it and their canadian win, but all the while the stock kept slipping. Almost added a pile of shares several times, but I have seen so many of these things go down a bunch after approval. 

Oh well that's biotech gambling for you.

 
Last chance to jump on ICPT. I expect a nice bump after the conference call this afternoon. This is a $100 stock trading in the mid-sixties.

 
Sold 3000 TVIX for a loss of $34,380  Gambling is fun.

Still holding 3000 TVIX at a price of $14.34.  Figure I'll wait out October out and see if I can scrape something out.  November and December are usually pretty good months.  Of course September and October generally are bad months.

 
I understand but I can't hold on to a stock for a long time and watch it do nothing but decline while the rest of the market goes up.  In my mind something is wrong with management.

I think BMY is a better company and pays a similar dividend.   As a matter of fact I just bought 50 more at $54.69 to give me 100 at $51.80.  I don't care to buy right before earnings but F it.
Out at $64.34 for a profit of $1306.00 with dividends.  :confetti: 

 
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Also covered my CMG short while it was around $310 a few days back. While I still like the downtrend (and what a ride that was), think for the short term it found a bottom. Depending on reviews of queso, and Q3 report, probably looking to short again within the next 4-8 weeks, but TBD. 
Think I'm buying some $250 March puts tomorrow. This is a $150 stock. Queso reviews are ####, stores are empty, food is bad, menu is fatigued. This should have a P/E of 15, not 60. P/E of 30 would have this around $150, the street is going to throw in the towel here. 

Could see a bounce around $300 from people looking for a bottom, but I'm confident those individuals will get burned. 

 
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