Stock Thread (59 Viewers)

[The Ref]

Solid earnings growth... EM growth (4.5%) is far pacing to outgrow DM growth (2.25%) (as it should) which is going to bring in further investments, IMO. Think that accelerates into the final legs of the global growth story.

EM Growth was good this year, I expect it to continue heavily next year.

Also, VEMAX is what I'm in for our plan, looking at the 5 year chart, I see a breakout happening. 7% of this ETF is Tencent & BABA, which I really love that exposure in my 401k for 2018.

I'm more heavily weighted in EFA/EEM for these reasons.  Also I think there is a decent chance we will see an infrastructure deal worked out and it will drive down the USD and bump commodities - that's generally bullish for EFA/EEM 

 

[eoMMan]

Heard a rumor that amazon is buying Target

Heard a rumor that Apple is buying Netflix

 

[Rattle and Hum]

Is liquidity really a concern on vanguard funds?

I do not believe that ETFs will be trading at their NAVs during a market meltdown. I also do not believe a long-term investor needs to worry about it if she/he doesn't plan to sell on a day like that. Therefore, I'd guess that it's pretty much a non-issue for @GoBirds. Perhaps someone move knowledgeable about unwinding the layers of ETFs during a black swan event can chime in...we may not see one for 10+ years, who knows.

 

[Steed]

Hmny, aka movie pass, just announced they’ve been looking into blockchain.  Fireworks tmrw if it follows the trend

 

[Sand]

Hmny, aka movie pass, just announced they’ve been looking into blockchain.  Fireworks tmrw if it follows the trend

Kodak up 65% today on news of them introducing a photography centric crypto-coin.  

Totally nutso.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Kodak up 65% today on news of them introducing a photography centric crypto-coin.  

Totally nutso.

Omg. It us trading at 10.10 after hours. Closed at what 3.12 yesterday???

 

[culdeus]

Kodak up 65% today on news of them introducing a photography centric crypto-coin.  

Totally nutso.

We should so make a @shuke coin. :mansion:

 

[sbonomo]

Kodak up 65% today on news of them introducing a photography centric crypto-coin.  

Totally nutso.

I am so sick of this idiot bitcoin nonsense.  When will this end?  COuld this start the next severe downturn?  Honesty I am over it. 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

We should so make a @shuke coin. :mansion:

Sammich (BOBL) scarcity will drive its inherent value.  Only 1,000,000 Sammiches will be generated, and once consumed they will be no more.

BOBL will be granted for providing information that is difficult to come by, such as the unknown name of a particularly attractive actress in a new commercial, the rating for something yet unrated, a suggestion for an undiscovered condiment, recommendations for new novels, or outright gifting a doll capable of standing and shaking its head on its own.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I am so sick of this idiot bitcoin nonsense.  When will this end?  COuld this start the next severe downturn?  Honesty I am over it. 

Have you actually looked into the technology and its potential appplications? Apart from the ability to properly memorialize shuke, it seems possible it could provide us with advancements we wouldn't have considered without blockchain. 

Ignoring it because you're uncomfortable with or ignorant about it doesn't make much sense. Willing to admit I've probably done so for too long.

Obv they're not all going to be winners. The question is whether you back VHS OR betamax imo.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

It's not just about btc. That's just what launched it.

 

[sbonomo]

Have you actually looked into the technology and its potential appplications? Apart from the ability to properly memorialize shuke, it seems possible it could provide us with advancements we wouldn't have considered without blockchain. 

Ignoring it because you're uncomfortable with or ignorant about it doesn't make much sense. Willing to admit I've probably done so for too long.

Obv they're not all going to be winners. The question is whether you back VHS OR betamax imo.

I will be honest outside of watching a documentary on the way it was formed I have not really kept up with it.  Are you asserting that it may take over for money as we know it?/  Next slow day I will head over to the blockchain thread and educate myself a bit more. 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I will be honest outside of watching a documentary on the way it was formed I have not really kept up with it.  Are you asserting that it may take over for money as we know it?/  Next slow day I will head over to the blockchain thread and educate myself a bit more. 

No. It's just a different kind of store of wealth. 

Equities don't make cash useless.

There's a podcast I'll see if I can track down that I think is helpful for people legit interested in understanding this stuff.

 

[culdeus]

I will be honest outside of watching a documentary on the way it was formed I have not really kept up with it.  Are you asserting that it may take over for money as we know it?/  Next slow day I will head over to the blockchain thread and educate myself a bit more. 

The biggest potential it has is to upset the transaction interconnect fee structure.  By tying your personal wealth to blockchain type wallets you could take fees from the >2% range down to what debit cards look like.  

That and buying \/[/\3R/\ from India over the innertubes

 

[djmich]

The biggest potential it has is to upset the transaction interconnect fee structure.  By tying your personal wealth to blockchain type wallets you could take fees from the >2% range down to what debit cards look like.  

That and buying \/[/\3R/\ from India over the innertubes

A currency exchange that I get no rewards on, I have no chargeback rights and I don't have an underlying credit line that allows me to pay back over time. 

Oh yah, if I lose it, it's gone forever.

Can't wait.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Kodak up 65% today on news of them introducing a photography centric crypto-coin.  

Totally nutso.

Omg. It us trading at 10.10 after hours. Closed at what 3.12 yesterday???

I saw that go across the ticker and was wondering WTF. Insanity. 

 

[Plorfu]

Why would anyone have even owned Kodak before today? Unless they had actual stock certificates next to their Blockbuster shares.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Podcasts:

http://investorfieldguide.com/hashpower/

 

[kevzilla]

Sammich (BOBL) scarcity will drive its inherent value.  Only 1,000,000 Sammiches will be generated, and once consumed they will be no more.

BOBL will be granted for providing information that is difficult to come by, such as the unknown name of a particularly attractive actress in a new commercial, the rating for something yet unrated, a suggestion for an undiscovered condiment, recommendations for new novels, or outright gifting a doll capable of standing and shaking its head on its own.

Regrettably, it is easily corrupted by blackicechain technology.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

So, here's how I've come to think about this stuff with the little I've read, listened to, etc.

Blockchain is like the internet.  The technology is likely legit.  It's likely useful.  It's unlikely to go anywhere anytime soon (though it's certainly possible some alternative could spawn that makes it obsolete, it seems pretty remote). 

All these cryptocurrencies are the .coms that sprung up in the late 90s.  They're seeing the success of others, they're popping up all over the place, and the money being thrown around is going to ensure that they continue to emerge.  Some will have noble intention, utility, and value.  Some are going to be scams, pump and dumps, etc.  Some are going to suffer from valuations so extreme that no matter what their original intent or value, they could be crushed by the weight of it. 

The most likely scenario seems to be a replay of the .com boom.  More and more people are going to get into this until the money and the number of new entrants cause the valuations to soar to unsustainable levels, and MOST of these players, especially the newer ones will cease to exist.  And the people holding those coins at that point in time are going to get absolutely hammered.

Out of that, though, blockchain is likely to persist, the same way the internet did even after the .com bubble burst.  And some of these cyptocurrencies are going to become Google and Cisco and Amazon.  The questions are: What stage of the lifecycle are we in (seems early, but not for every individual currency/.com)?  Can you pick a few winners?  Can you get value out of the losers before they become worthless or find a way to identify and avoid them altogether?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

But there's also regulatory risk that didn't exist with most of the .coms.  No idea what the FBI or SEC or IRS may decide is problematic and begin to attempt to corral. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

So, here's how I've come to think about this stuff with the little I've read, listened to, etc.

Blockchain is like the internet.  The technology is likely legit.  It's likely useful.  It's unlikely to go anywhere anytime soon (though it's certainly possible some alternative could spawn that makes it obsolete, it seems pretty remote). 

All these cryptocurrencies are the .coms that sprung up in the late 90s.  They're seeing the success of others, they're popping up all over the place, and the money being thrown around is going to ensure that they continue to emerge.  Some will have noble intention, utility, and value.  Some are going to be scams, pump and dumps, etc.  Some are going to suffer from valuations so extreme that no matter what their original intent or value, they could be crushed by the weight of it. 

The most likely scenario seems to be a replay of the .com boom.  More and more people are going to get into this until the money and the number of new entrants cause the valuations to soar to unsustainable levels, and MOST of these players, especially the newer ones will cease to exist.  And the people holding those coins at that point in time are going to get absolutely hammered.

Out of that, though, blockchain is likely to persist, the same way the internet did even after the .com bubble burst.  And some of these cyptocurrencies are going to become Google and Cisco and Amazon.  The questions are: What stage of the lifecycle are we in (seems early, but not for every individual currency/.com)?  Can you pick a few winners?  Can you get value out of the losers before they become worthless or find a way to identify and avoid them altogether?

I like this post, Bob. 

In the crypto thread a few months ago I made the .com comparison and called the tulip comparison pretty stupid, for similar reasons as you note. 

For the most part I agree with a lot of this, the technology is absolutely not going anywhere, however the coins on the other hand are absolutely useless and worth 0, people will get hurt. From a valuation standpoint I differ a little from you, I think the cycle moved so fast that it actually inflated this coin bubble so fast that the crash will happen much quicker than the .com bubble took to happen. 

Furthermore, being so unregulated, when the crash happens, you're going to have 10MM people trying to get on about 12 lifeboats, it'll be a crash like nothing we've ever seen before.

My hope is it actually spills over to real assets (even though the underlying coin assets and total dollar amounts there shouldn't impact any real companies and in reality, they almost certainly won't) to create one last major buying opportunity in this late cycle environment. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

On another note, JPM and COP... I've slid a decent chunk out of AAPL and moved into these two, I love them both, but I'm so overweight on JPM it is frightening. I've laid out my case, and I'll do it one more time bc I think there is still time to ride this for the final leg. 

- Rates are rising, it's happening, although slow enough that the recession risk is still at least 18 months away, prob longer. Biggest risk is geopolitical, IMO. They're passing the increased costs on to borrowers, but not to savers.

- They have possibly the most rock solid balance sheet out of any bank in the world. Even during the 2008-2009 meltdown, they were the most well risk averse bank out of all them. Jamie Dimon is a monster at managing risk.

- Tax reform, absolutely favors them and this entire sector

- Deregulation, although I don't love this as much as I think the GOP doesn't get #### done this year and loses power by November. However, just the possibilities being floated out there absolutely give them a boost. 

Bottom line, they are one of the best bets on the final legs of this bull from what I'm looking at. With that being said, they report Friday morning and being at a 52 week high at earnings has me a little worried. 

 

[TripItUp]

I like this post, Bob. 

In the crypto thread a few months ago I made the .com comparison and called the tulip comparison pretty stupid, for similar reasons as you note. 

For the most part I agree with a lot of this, the technology is absolutely not going anywhere, however the coins on the other hand are absolutely useless and worth 0, people will get hurt. From a valuation standpoint I differ a little from you, I think the cycle moved so fast that it actually inflated this coin bubble so fast that the crash will happen much quicker than the .com bubble took to happen. 

Furthermore, being so unregulated, when the crash happens, you're going to have 10MM people trying to get on about 12 lifeboats, it'll be a crash like nothing we've ever seen before.

My hope is it actually spills over to real assets (even though the underlying coin assets and total dollar amounts there shouldn't impact any real companies and in reality, they almost certainly won't) to create one last major buying opportunity in this late cycle environment. 

Not sure how you come to this conclusion, because it is absolutely incorrect.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Not sure how you come to this conclusion, because it is absolutely incorrect.

Sort of like this?

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/653949-get-your-money-out-of-the-market/

 

[culdeus]

Not sure how you come to this conclusion, because it is absolutely incorrect.

The value of the coins are worth what people will spend to mine them.  If people stop mining the coins the entire back-end infrastructure will crater until someone else comes up with a more energy efficient system to manage the transactions.  (i.e. a new coin structure)

Any froth above the current mining costs (which my understanding is will always go up, just a matter of how much) is speculation.  

BTC in my mind is the most flawed because the mining costs are so high that you are putting legit strain on electrical grids just to keep up.  That's not sustainable.  Then you have to step back and look at the fact that only 2 of the top 500 e-commerce sites are actually processing BTC and say, why do this much damage to the environment?  

Other coins are better designed and should take up the slack.  

Bump this in 10 years when BTC is at eleventy trillion, but I see BTC going to 0 from here.  Ripple/ETH seem to have some long term hodl potential.  

 

[TripItUp]

The value of the coins are worth what people will spend to mine them.  If people stop mining the coins the entire back-end infrastructure will crater until someone else comes up with a more energy efficient system to manage the transactions.  (i.e. a new coin structure)

Any froth above the current mining costs (which my understanding is will always go up, just a matter of how much) is speculation.  

BTC in my mind is the most flawed because the mining costs are so high that you are putting legit strain on electrical grids just to keep up.  That's not sustainable.  Then you have to step back and look at the fact that only 2 of the top 500 e-commerce sites are actually processing BTC and say, why do this much damage to the environment?  

Other coins are better designed and should take up the slack.  

Bump this in 10 years when BTC is at eleventy trillion, but I see BTC going to 0 from here.  Ripple/ETH seem to have some long term hodl potential.  

Sure, but the current value of BTC and many other coins is not currently "zero."

My only point.

 

[fantasycurse42]

The value of the coins are worth what people will spend to mine them.  If people stop mining the coins the entire back-end infrastructure will crater until someone else comes up with a more energy efficient system to manage the transactions.  (i.e. a new coin structure)

Any froth above the current mining costs (which my understanding is will always go up, just a matter of how much) is speculation.  

BTC in my mind is the most flawed because the mining costs are so high that you are putting legit strain on electrical grids just to keep up.  That's not sustainable.  Then you have to step back and look at the fact that only 2 of the top 500 e-commerce sites are actually processing BTC and say, why do this much damage to the environment?  

Other coins are better designed and should take up the slack.  

Bump this in 10 years when BTC is at eleventy trillion, but I see BTC going to 0 from here.  Ripple/ETH seem to have some long term hodl potential.  

Agreed on bold... let me restate, most, not all are worth zero... Bitcoin worth zero, IMO. 

However, at their current valuations, ALL still way way way overvalued. Ripple is showing it has some merit (yet a long way to go to prove itself), but point me to an unproven startup worth $100B and I'll point you to a bubble. 

 

[eoMMan]

The value of the coins are worth what people will spend to mine them.  If people stop mining the coins the entire back-end infrastructure will crater until someone else comes up with a more energy efficient system to manage the transactions.  (i.e. a new coin structure)

Any froth above the current mining costs (which my understanding is will always go up, just a matter of how much) is speculation.  

BTC in my mind is the most flawed because the mining costs are so high that you are putting legit strain on electrical grids just to keep up.  That's not sustainable.  Then you have to step back and look at the fact that only 2 of the top 500 e-commerce sites are actually processing BTC and say, why do this much damage to the environment?  

Other coins are better designed and should take up the slack.  

Bump this in 10 years when BTC is at eleventy trillion, but I see BTC going to 0 from here.  Ripple/ETH seem to have some long term hodl potential.  

I think Stellar is another one that has some long term hodl potential. It's similar to ETH with the "smart contract" aspect involved and from what I understand, IBM is doing a lot of testing with it.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Ripple is showing it has some merit

Oh dear

 

[General Malaise]

So, here's how I've come to think about this stuff with the little I've read, listened to, etc.

Blockchain is like the internet.  The technology is likely legit.  It's likely useful.  It's unlikely to go anywhere anytime soon (though it's certainly possible some alternative could spawn that makes it obsolete, it seems pretty remote). 

All these cryptocurrencies are the .coms that sprung up in the late 90s.  They're seeing the success of others, they're popping up all over the place, and the money being thrown around is going to ensure that they continue to emerge.  Some will have noble intention, utility, and value.  Some are going to be scams, pump and dumps, etc.  Some are going to suffer from valuations so extreme that no matter what their original intent or value, they could be crushed by the weight of it. 

The most likely scenario seems to be a replay of the .com boom.  More and more people are going to get into this until the money and the number of new entrants cause the valuations to soar to unsustainable levels, and MOST of these players, especially the newer ones will cease to exist.  And the people holding those coins at that point in time are going to get absolutely hammered.

Out of that, though, blockchain is likely to persist, the same way the internet did even after the .com bubble burst.  And some of these cyptocurrencies are going to become Google and Cisco and Amazon.  The questions are: What stage of the lifecycle are we in (seems early, but not for every individual currency/.com)?  Can you pick a few winners?  Can you get value out of the losers before they become worthless or find a way to identify and avoid them altogether?

:standing ovation:

This is about as well a summary as I've read.  

Question:  How do you short the bad ones? 

 

[RUSF18]

:standing ovation:

This is about as well a summary as I've read.  

Question:  How do you short the bad ones? 

Agreed. And I asked this in one of the crypto threads but didn't get an answer, and maybe that's because there isn't one. But is there a way to invest in the technology without direct investment in the coins themselves?

 

[General Malaise]

But there's also regulatory risk that didn't exist with most of the .coms.  No idea what the FBI or SEC or IRS may decide is problematic and begin to attempt to corral. 

This is the big risk I see coming down the highway.  Some entity is going to step in and cause either panic or bureaucratic slow down or both.  Not only are these markets currently unregulated, but they are throwing off fees to the SEC or IRS or any other agency that typically relies on fee friction to survive like the mafia.  

 

[sbonomo]

A currency exchange that I get no rewards on, I have no chargeback rights and I don't have an underlying credit line that allows me to pay back over time. 

Oh yah, if I lose it, it's gone forever.

Can't wait.

This was one of the key things that stuck in my mind.  The documentary i watched showed a firm that had hundreds of thousands of these things stolen by a hacker.  Zero recourse.  Maybe the tech is sound but i am extremely skeptical about the underlying fundementals.

 

[General Malaise]

Agreed. And I asked this in one of the crypto threads but didn't get an answer, and maybe that's because there isn't one. But is there a way to invest in the technology without direct investment in the coins themselves?

AMD and other chip manufacturers should benefit, but the it seems like they already had a bit of a run (AMD was 3ish like a 2 years ago, 12ish today - NVDA is at $220ish, no thanks).

I've read other articles that recommend ZNGA , DPW (traditional manufacturer of power-supply products for demanding applications) and OSTK.  

 

[fantasycurse42]

Agreed. And I asked this in one of the crypto threads but didn't get an answer, and maybe that's because there isn't one. But is there a way to invest in the technology without direct investment in the coins themselves?

Not really... I've been on the hunt - I mean there are companies that say they are looking into developing blah blah blah, but way too speculative, and the fear is getting caught in a pump/dump. 

I'd assume any real company involved in the underlying technology that is completely legit will be backed by VC money without much of a chance for people like you or I to get in (early). 

I guess your best exposure would be Overstock, but I'd avoid like the plague for now. 

 

[[icon]]

I will be honest outside of watching a documentary on the way it was formed I have not really kept up with it.  Are you asserting that it may take over for money as we know it?/  Next slow day I will head over to the blockchain thread and educate myself a bit more. 

I think we are a ways out, but I think BC as a store of value is here to stay, and it's role as a currency or means of interchange remains to be seen. On a scale of 1-10 with 1 being UberBear, and 10 being CrazyCrypto Guy, I'm probably a 6 or a 7.

I can see the underlying tech (especially when combined with burgeoning wireless/touchless payment segment) being rather interesting over the next couple years.... and perhaps downright disruptive. 

However..... 

So, here's how I've come to think about this stuff with the little I've read, listened to, etc.

... edit for brevity....

Out of that, though, blockchain is likely to persist, the same way the internet did even after the .com bubble burst.  And some of these cyptocurrencies are going to become Google and Cisco and Amazon.  The questions are: What stage of the lifecycle are we in (seems early, but not for every individual currency/.com)?  Can you pick a few winners?  Can you get value out of the losers before they become worthless or find a way to identify and avoid them altogether?

This.
Well said, Bob.

I think looking at traditional mainstream retailers acceptance rate of BTC as a pure currency is a flawed and antiquated mindset at this stage. I think currency and retail as a whole is going to move toward BC tech, and not the other way around. How much they overlap in the end remains to be seen.  

 

[Steed]

Agreed. And I asked this in one of the crypto threads but didn't get an answer, and maybe that's because there isn't one. But is there a way to invest in the technology without direct investment in the coins themselves?

It’s boring but safe.  Ibm has been quietly involved in the blockchain space.  Between their AI tech and quantum computing research,  they’re probably well positioned to take advantage 

 

[culdeus]

It’s boring but safe.  Ibm has been quietly involved in the blockchain space.  Between their AI tech and quantum computing research,  they’re probably well positioned to take advantage 

The market cap of btc is a nice prize if they can break the encryption scheme and jack all the wallets. 

 

[Evilgrin 72]

:standing ovation:

This is about as well a summary as I've read.  

Question:  How do you short the bad ones? 

Ironically followed by about as poorly a sentence as I have read.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

however the coins on the other hand are absolutely useless and worth 0, people will get hurt. From a valuation standpoint I differ a little from you, I think the cycle moved so fast that it actually inflated this coin bubble so fast that the crash will happen much quicker than the .com bubble took to happen. 

Valuation standpoint isn't the only place we differ.

 

[General Malaise]

Ironically followed by about as poorly a sentence as I have read.

Good a summary?

 

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Good a summary?

 

That's the ticket !

FTR - Couldn't agree more with Bob's read on crypto in general.  I know next to nothing about the intricacies of how this works but from an eagles-nest view of the situation, particularly as germane to the investor, I think his read is spot-on.  As one of the many ###holes that was left without a chair when the massive game of duck-duck-goose stopped for the .com boom in the early 00s, I am particularly skittish about sinking any kind of serious capital into crypto. However, the upside is surely intriguing.  My two major concerns/questions were summed up succinctly and accurately by the esteemed Mr. Sacamano - where are we on the shelf-life timeline and how does one separate the wheat from the chaff without having an intricate knowledge of the different coins and what they have in the hopper for future applications?

 

[General Malaise]

That's the ticket !

My mom would always correct me when I was asked "How are you" and I'd reply "Good".  "Son, you don't respond to that question with 'good', you say you are doing 'well'." Now I find myself using well where good is better.  I'm all sorts of screwed up.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Anyways, can we get back to real stock talk? 

Anyone else overweight on banks besides myself right now? 

Here is one piece of advice I can offer and would recommend everyone look at; https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/jpmorgan-sees-one-time-hit-of-as-much-as-dollar2-billion-on-tax-bill/ar-BBGgLEs

This one time hit will absolutely impact their EPS in the 4th quarter, we know this... What I also think can happen is the algos will instantly sell on this, which I'd recommend if this happens, looking to adjust your weighting more towards banks and buying the dip (unless the numbers & guidance are disastrous, which I can't see happening) - it'll be a one time expense and long term, well worth it. 

They release earnings Friday morning, watch for it - also on Friday morning is WFC and PNC, & BLK pretty big day to kickoff earnings season.

 

[TripleThreat]

or well *written*.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I guess what I'm really wondering is; am I on this I love big banks island all by myself, and if so, can I get the opinion of why someone disagrees? 

 

[The General]

This doesn't sound rosy

 

[fantasycurse42]

This doesn't sound rosy

diplomacy games dude - if they were trying to hurt us, they'd hurt us... if they are trying to use some leverage on us, they leak something like this. 

Nonetheless, this spiked rates today, and lo and behold, big banks

 

[culdeus]

I guess what I'm really wondering is; am I on this I love big banks island all by myself, and if so, can I get the opinion of why someone disagrees? 

JPM has nearly half a trillion in cash on hand.  I would be far more worried on a declining dollar hurting them.  2B may not move the needle.  I have JPM as roughly my 19th biggest holding, it's in like all the ETFs so I have exposure there.