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Stock Thread (54 Viewers)

fantasycurse42 said:
Meh, I'm starting to believe into iphone X demand dwindling - regardless of what they did in Q4, if that doesn't remain very strong, this is on the way back to $150. 

The R/R is better elsewhere, IMO. 
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With the p/e under 19, seems kind of safe to me. But I know a lot of you have followed it a long time and probably have a better grasp. I would like GOOG, AMZN or NTFX but their PE are ridiculous

 
cosjobs said:
With the p/e under 19, seems kind of safe to me. But I know a lot of you have followed it a long time and probably have a better grasp. I would like GOOG, AMZN or NTFX but their PE are ridiculous
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While it looks cheap on first glance, that is a really high P/E for them, historically... Take a look at their 5 year P/E - notice what happens when it gets up where it is now.

This is why I think the R/R here is risky. Nonetheless, I'm heavy into JPM and their P/E is nearing highs not seen in quite some time, although I think this could be said about most of the market. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
While it looks cheap on first glance, that is a really high P/E for them, historically... Take a look at their 5 year P/E - notice what happens when it gets up where it is now.

This is why I think the R/R here is risky. Nonetheless, I'm heavy into JPM and their P/E is nearing highs not seen in quite some time, although I think this could be said about most of the market. 
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Thanks for pointing that out. Still tempted by potential earning surprise, but that could go either way

 
Man, I had 500 shares short of Wynn on Friday at $188 and canceled the trade. Also, TVIX!  :(

Thursday big day for me and I know a lot of us.  APPL,AMZN,GOOGL all reporting.

 
cosjobs said:
What are your thoughts on GS
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Trading revenue for everyone was slaughtered last year (which is half of their business). I'm not really an investor in them, so I haven't followed all that much, but I have their ticker, along with the other major financial institutions up and I compare to JPM weekly, they've been on a massive run the last two weeks, so maybe the markets think this is behind them. 

St. Louis Bob said:
Man, I had 500 shares short of Wynn on Friday at $188 and canceled the trade. Also, TVIX!  :(

Thursday big day for me and I know a lot of us.  APPL,AMZN,GOOGL all reporting.
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Sexual harassment in Las Vegas, this literally turned my world upside down!!!

Seriously, not yet bc it is a knife, but there is a buying opportunity for a quick swing trade at some point in the next 3-6 weeks approaching on this one, IMO.

 
Things that are sustaining Apple long-term:

  • More cash than GM has kids
  • Being Apple
  • ???
There's a lot to be said for 1.  And maybe there's something in the works that will answer that question and be a positive surprise.  But I have no idea what it is at this point.  I can't afford to sell it.  But I'd have a hard time justifying buying in right now. 

If you're just looking to play earnings volatility, though, your guess is as good as anyone's.  What does a decent beat for the quarter but crappy guidance get?  I'd think dip.  That's what indications point to, but :shrug: .

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Things that are sustaining Apple long-term:

  • More cash than GM has kids
  • Being Apple
  • ???
There's a lot to be said for 1.  And maybe there's something in the works that will answer that question and be a positive surprise.  But I have no idea what it is at this point.  I can't afford to sell it.  But I'd have a hard time justifying buying in right now. 

If you're just looking to play earnings volatility, though, your guess is as good as anyone's.  What does a decent beat for the quarter but crappy guidance get?  I'd think dip.  That's what indications point to, but :shrug: .
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On this board if you are going to make outlandish claims like this, you better have a link. 

 
My ticker shows the PEAT stock thingy went up 8%...but my schwab account shows my 1300 shares down 8 bucks. But my fidelity account shows up 30 bucks or whatever. Any ideas?

 
Futures getting slaughtered- looks like we’re setting up for a bloodbath tomorrow...

FWIW, with the start to 2018, it’s sorta due :kicksrock:

My biggest concern right now is how rising rates are going to impact the housing market - if rates keep rising (and I’ll preface; this will sound silly), a short on home builders might be worthwhile. Need to dive a lot deeper on research, but something to think about.

 
parasaurolophus said:
The answers to these questions really depend on your overall sentiment of the company. 

I have a hard time ever viewing these things as sound future investments. They have zero revenues as far as i can tell and they just bought a mine in africa that doesnt even mine cobalt yet. The market cap is 17.5 million bucks of blue sky. 

So while they could actually mine cobalt and develop blockchain technology to do what they say, that is definitely not a guarantee and based on history of these kinds of companies, probably unlikely. 

Doesnt mean we cant make money. I have bought and sold far scammier company shares than this and turned out just fine. People buy these things hoping they have found the next gem. The key is to be realistic and make sure to be out ahead of the volume. You can almost always get to where you have some free shares if you play it right so you can sit back and watch them get obliterated down to .0001 or hit it big.

I still have some completely worthless shares of a couple penny plays in my brokerage account. I noticed last week that 2000 of them just disappeared of one. It was a spinoff dividend award of some other worthless shares. 
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Thanks for the feedback. Yeah, I might sell half my shares if I can get .15 or greater this week. Let the rest ride and enjoy the popcorn. I'll be really curious how much those cheap shares dilute the value, at least in the short term. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Futures getting slaughtered- looks like we’re setting up for a bloodbath tomorrow...

FWIW, with the start to 2018, it’s sorta due :kicksrock:

My biggest concern right now is how rising rates are going to impact the housing market - if rates keep rising (and I’ll preface; this will sound silly), a short on home builders might be worthwhile. Need to dive a lot deeper on research, but something to think about.
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Far too early for that IMO. Although we are in the very late innings of this cyclical bull market we are not done. Multiples expansion has more legs as long as earnings keep proving the economy will continue this higher GDP course with the new found tax breaks. Interest rates are still at these levels at historic lows.

I would love to see a healthy 10% correction though at some point to create some buying opportunities on high quality growing dividend stocks. I am literally still sitting in 12-15% cash (and it has barely hurt my returns) just waiting for some value to emerge. 

I was picking spots. Bought several dogs of the Dow like PFE, T, VZ, XOM, IBM to name a few (except GE) on January 2nd, nibbled at Disney several times last year under $100. Traded some retailers like LB and FL, and gobbled up TGT at 54 a share when it got rocked last year. Everything else were long term holdings that have just really not stopped. A long time ago (I think it was 2015) I was really accumulating industrial stocks like BA, CAT, LMT, CMI and DE to name a few. Those stocks have been monsters.

This market is priced for perfection. The PE’s are really high. But if the earnings keep up and guidance is good this market has another 7-12% in it. I am just blown away at this month....it has been rocket sauce. We need a healthy breather. Nothing wrong with some volatility. We have not seen any since the man with orange hair was elected.

 
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cosjobs said:
On Friday I made a couple of UVXY options... seemed a safer way to play volatility

I called $10 and $10.50 to close this Friday on 1700 total share.

Sold off 400 just now to recoup 75% of investment and retain 1300 share.

This seems more low risk than the way Bob and I have been funding TVIX @St. Louis Bob
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This is what I always have in mind when I buy the VIX, quadrupled price in just over a day.

Went ahead and bought 1000 straight VIX at 31.31

 
unloaded 75% of TGT

I have numerous smaller positions in Biotech. Rather than liquidate, I hedged with 500 shares of BIS

 
I agree with Todem. Almost hoping we're getting a correction, but I'm skeptical.

I've got some cash I'll put into play if we get the DJIA down at 25k and some more if it finds itself around 22,500. 

Tree just getting shaken. Unemployment is low, balance sheets are strong as rocks, and regardless of what they want to say about interest rates, they're still historically low. 

Don't sweat the noise on days like today. 

 
Todem said:
Far too early for that IMO.

This market is priced for perfection. The PE’s are really high. But if the earnings keep up and guidance is good this market has another 7-12% in it. I am just blown away at this month....it has been rocket sauce. We need a healthy breather. Nothing wrong with some volatility. We have not seen any since the man with orange hair was elected.
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Not sure what you're saying is far too early, futures pointed to a bloodbath today, which as I mentioned was not an issue and kinda needed. 

If you're mentioning the housing market, and rates keep rising as they have been (30 year touched 4.5% yesterday), a contrarian view to all the roses out there would be a downturn in the housing market. These rates impact the lower portion of the housing market, the middle class consumers who drive the economy. Every 25 basis points crushes affordability and we've seen a rocket launch this month alone. Affordability is already struggling as appreciation has accelerated. With rising rates, consumers will be priced out, demand will drop, then prices will follow. I'm not concrete on that, but it is a thesis that I am certainly going to dive into a little deeper. 

The second point I agree with everything; I agree this bull is late cycle, but I think it still has some healthy legs. Think we some better than expected wage growth, spurring more demand from consumers, and pushing everything higher until it hits a tipping point, which I still think is some 18-24 months away (unless some sort of geopolitical event happens before then)... At that point inflation will overshoot the Feds targets, they'll have one final rush to raise rates aggressively, then we crash. Think the melt-up will explode, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the DJIA top off around 35k and the S&P around 3,500 before the death of this bull. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Not sure what you're saying is far too early, futures pointed to a bloodbath today, which as I mentioned was not an issue and kinda needed. 

If you're mentioning the housing market, and rates keep rising as they have been (30 year touched 4.5% yesterday), a contrarian view to all the roses out there would be a downturn in the housing market. These rates impact the lower portion of the housing market, the middle class consumers who drive the economy. Every 25 basis points crushes affordability and we've seen a rocket launch this month alone. Affordability is already struggling as appreciation has accelerated. With rising rates, consumers will be priced out, demand will drop, then prices will follow. I'm not concrete on that, but it is a thesis that I am certainly going to dive into a little deeper. 

The second point I agree with everything; I agree this bull is late cycle, but I think it still has some healthy legs. Think we some better than expected wage growth, spurring more demand from consumers, and pushing everything higher until it hits a tipping point, which I still think is some 18-24 months away (unless some sort of geopolitical event happens before then)... At that point inflation will overshoot the Feds targets, they'll have one final rush to raise rates aggressively, then we crash. Think the melt-up will explode, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the DJIA top off around 35k and the S&P around 3,500 before the death of this bull. 
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Down 1.25% is a bloodbath? 

As far as housing. Again you would be a little early IMO and can suffer some serious losses if you are not correct on your short position. Even those guys in the "Great Short" were going through some serious bloodbath losses before the tide turned. Again I like the thesis, but I would still wait a hair longer before starting to go on a shorting spree. As always, timing the market is tough and not something that usually works in your favor.

 
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Todem said:
Down 1.25% is a bloodbath? 

As far as housing. Again you would be a little early IMO and can suffer some serious losses if you are not correct on your short position. Even those guys in the "Great Short" were going through some serious bloodbath losses before the tide turned. Again I like the thesis, but I would still wait a hair longer before starting to go on a shorting spree. As always, timing the market is tough and not something that usually works in your favor.
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I'd consider the DJIA dropping more than 500 points in a 2 day stretch a bloodbath. As I mentioned, we've been on a tear and it is more than due :shrug:  Avoiding the noise and staying the course with all other pieces still in play is the move, IMO.

I'm not ready to start shorting housing stocks now, just a thought to look into as rates continue to rise.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I'd consider the DJIA dropping more than 500 points in a 2 day stretch a bloodbath. As I mentioned, we've been on a tear and it is more than due :shrug:  Avoiding the noise and staying the course with all other pieces still in play is the move, IMO.

I'm not ready to start shorting housing stocks now, just a thought to look into as rates continue to rise.
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I am more in the 7-10% correction is a bloodbath. 

This is merely a short lived breather.

Now maybe this continues for a few more days and we may get into our first 4-5% correction in a long time.

Long overdue too.

 
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Todem said:
I am more in the 7-10% correction is a bloodbath. 

This is merely a short lived breather.

Now maybe this continues for a few more days and we may get into our first 4-5% correction is a long time.

Long overdue too.
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I think there is some "smart money" sitting and waiting and when they see 5%, you'll see buying coming back quick. 

Today, yesterday, and any other selling up to 10% right now is just noise, IMO.

ETA: Although, on a day like today, I would like to see 10 year yields take a breather and drop a little, which they are not. Prob the only thing I find slightly concerning.

 
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Walking Boot said:
The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq were all up 2% last week. Rolling back the clock 7 days isn't a bloodbath. It was up, what, 7% or so in the month of January alone? A little pullback is normal froth. 
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There's also the fact that a man whose mouth moves before his brain engages will be speaking to the world tonight.  Film at 11.  War at 12.

 
Well captain orange will almost definitely talk business and regulations tonight, so money should be made tomorrow at least. 

 
AMZN is pretty amazing...

Almost bought TVIX today, almost - I decided not to, well, bc I hate that ####### thing, but I do think we're in the crosshairs of a correction.

 
Solid earnings from FB and MSFT and both selling off... Correction is a coming.

Most interesting is T beat and they're buying it. You'd think the high dividend stocks would be feeling more pressure with rising yields, I give up :shrug:

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Solid earnings from FB and MSFT and both selling off... Correction is a coming.

Most interesting is T beat and they're buying it. You'd think the high dividend stocks would be feeling more pressure with rising yields, I give up :shrug:
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Buy the rumor, sell the news.  I would put no importance on what FB and MSFT do after earnings.

T has been stagnant for a while.  Interesting that it has picked up.  I still wouldn't buy it, though.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I do think we're in the crosshairs of a correction.
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And this is why we don't have a correction of note.  Everyone thinks we're getting into a correction and buys the #### out of everything to try and capture relative value.  So we just march up and up.

Until we don't.

 
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