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Stock Thread (36 Viewers)

fantasycurse42 said:
Who’s buying all this debt we’re issuing (and it’s unprecedented)? What happens when we get to 4%? What if we get to 5%? With the Fed trying to unwind gazillions...

You see how quick we dropped 10%? With real issues, if housing starts to falter, if inflation overshoots - with all the money pumped into the system over the last decade, you can’t see a scenario where we crash? Now, I’m not talking about a 60% crash, but 30, and quick, I can see that unfolding with ease in the next 12-24 months. 

To say that consolidating and moving sideways is the far more likely scenario is the product of the last decade where we’ve forgotten, things can and do go wrong.
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Us permabears will finally wake up. Well, on the bright side, maybe I'll be able to buy my PEATF back...

 
culdeus said:
Why does it have to end in a crash?  

The much more likely situation is we end with a period of a long sideways meandering to nowhere. 
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Just MHO, but if the market realizes this is unsustainable we'll see some significant unwinding.  I don't think we'll end up in a malaise.  Of course, I have nothing but speculation and sleeping in a HIE to back that up.

On another note, :cough:TSLA:cough:, here is a good article.  Note the first figure showing the amount lost per car produced.  Economies of scale aren't happening.  I'm not sure why.  Again, I'm not shorting this thing currently, but if we roll into a recessionary posture I think this is one that will tank pretty quick.

 
dschuler said:
No, I held off luckily.  Been hit too hard the last few months.  I really like $Roku long term, I think it has the potential create significant market share. 
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Curious why you feel this way. I think I asked this a couple quarters ago when they had a big bump, but I don't quite see how they stand out from their competition especially when considering that same competition either owns their own content to distribute (Amazon) or can easily buy it if they want (Apple, Google). Maybe I'm missing something in their model though.

 
RUSF18 said:
Curious why you feel this way. I think I asked this a couple quarters ago when they had a big bump, but I don't quite see how they stand out from their competition especially when considering that same competition either owns their own content to distribute (Amazon) or can easily buy it if they want (Apple, Google). Maybe I'm missing something in their model though.
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It’s a better product than any other box available.  It consistently get better reviews than the products you listed when put head to head.

It’s media search engine is the best in the world, much like the algorithm for the google search engine is light years ahead of everyone else.

It has the potential to replace Comcast, Cox, and other cable packages but is different than the providers you listed.  It can live stream news and sports, which is why a lot of people have cable packages in the first place.  

Essentially, it has the potential for a customer to pick exactly what channels they want every month.

The search engine is undervalued IMO.  I see big potential.  Say you want a movie with Brad Pitt.  You type in his name, get all his movies, and watch one instantly.  Or just type in a year, like a movie in 1992.  Even more specific, search a particular date, like December 5th and get news, shows, etc associated with that day. Depending on the movie, who owns it, age, etc, you can watch with Ads, rent, or buy.  Again, little bit different.  Personally I think current media searches are garbage, and I’ve seen a couple interviews describing how much more advanced this one is. This is quite a bit different.  

I hate to play compare the market cap game but at only about $4 Billion its peanuts compared to the big players.  In my opinion, it has a lot untapped potential that can really separate itself.  

 
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dschuler said:
Personally I think current media searches are garbage, and I’ve seen a couple interviews describing how much more advanced this one is. This is quite a bit different.  
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I wouldn't call them garbage, but my experience has been that if you are in a streaming provider and want to search for something and it exists but they don't offer it is as if it never happened. 

 
RUSF18 said:
Curious why you feel this way. I think I asked this a couple quarters ago when they had a big bump, but I don't quite see how they stand out from their competition especially when considering that same competition either owns their own content to distribute (Amazon) or can easily buy it if they want (Apple, Google). Maybe I'm missing something in their model though.
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Where I'm at. Wish I wasn't so busy with stupid work or would have shorted it last night. I have a Roku on my non-smart TV I bought 10+ years ago but all of the new TVs do what Roku does for free. I'm shuked.

 
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General Malaise said:
Yeah, I can see housing turning around in a hurry with the 10 Year yield moving north with this sort of velocity.  Might sell now, tbh.
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I hope you are right but the last housing decline was because of a lack of inventory not demand.  I bought my first house 24 years ago with a mortgage of 8.5% and thought it was a deal. I'm guessing 5.5% isn't going to scare anyone. 

 
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St. Louis Bob said:
I hope you are right but the last housing decline was because of a lack of inventory not demand.  I bought my first house 24 years ago with a mortgage of 8.5% and thought it was a deal. I'm guessing 5.5% isn't going to scare anyone. 
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Yeah, but 8.5% was when housing prices were a lot less than they are today.  Housing prices here are absurd.  5.5% is going to decrease the number of qualified borrowers all over the parts of the country where prices got stupid, like the west coast for example. 

 
General Malaise said:
Yeah, but 8.5% was when housing prices were a lot less than they are today.  Housing prices here are absurd.  5.5% is going to decrease the number of qualified borrowers all over the parts of the country where prices got stupid, like the west coast for example. 
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Bingo - $700k home last year with 20% down and factoring taxes of $1,400 a month and an interest rate of 3.75%, your monthly nut was $4,200 (mortgage, interest, tax). 

Artificially low rates have driven the prices of everything up, including housing - when rates rise, and that free boost is gone, there will be pain. 

At 4.5%, that same home now has a monthly of $4,460 (in just 6 months, your nut is up over $3k a year)... 4.5% isn't enough to throw things off the rails, but rates are going up and at 5.5% now your nut is $4,800 - difference of over $7k a year in just the course of 18 months (if rates keep shooting up)... $7k a year makes a huge difference here, and at that point, I'd think we have problems.

You can use those same precentages across any price level

 
If you had roughly $10,000 to invest, would you invest in AAPL or AMZN right now? To go along with that, I already own MSFT, GILD, and a couple different blockchain companies.  I don't know if I want to double up on the Tech shares with both MSFT and AAPL at the same time.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Up to $61.80 $66.30 now.  The SEDG I bought at $18.14 is up to $36.40 $48.30 in after-hours trading.  I wish I'd dumped 10 times what I did into this account.

Anyone know when the solar free-ride is going to end?  JKS is my "dog" at this point - in at $17.89, now at $26.92. out at $24.50
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Timmay said:
If you had roughly $10,000 to invest, would you invest in AAPL or AMZN right now? To go along with that, I already own MSFT, GILD, and a couple different blockchain companies.  I don't know if I want to double up on the Tech shares with both MSFT and AAPL at the same time.
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I'm 100% not an expert but I am personally almost all-in on Amazon. 

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I would subscribe to your newsletter on stocks
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Lol. Here is my newsletter: 

1. Take every spare dollar you have and put it into Amazon. 

2. Watch your money pile up. 

3. Don't listen to people saying it will dip, they are just jealous they don't have as much Amazon as you do. 

4. We'll see you next month for the next newsletter. 

 
djmich said:
I'm doing pretty gosh darn good on this thing.  Are you still holding....peat too?
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Yeah, I can't sell the former and the latter, I consider a lottery ticket.  It'll hit an air pocket, but I'll gamble that if management can hit its marks, this thing will be a homerun.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Bingo - $700k home last year with 20% down and factoring taxes of $1,400 a month and an interest rate of 3.75%, your monthly nut was $4,200 (mortgage, interest, tax). 

Artificially low rates have driven the prices of everything up, including housing - when rates rise, and that free boost is gone, there will be pain. 

At 4.5%, that same home now has a monthly of $4,460 (in just 6 months, your nut is up over $3k a year)... 4.5% isn't enough to throw things off the rails, but rates are going up and at 5.5% now your nut is $4,800 - difference of over $7k a year in just the course of 18 months (if rates keep shooting up)... $7k a year makes a huge difference here, and at that point, I'd think we have problems.

You can use those same precentages across any price level
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The math is inarguable - you're 100% right.  I don't doubt that we'll see a slowdown in price increases as rates increase, but in many markets (almost all of CA) there is such a shortage for housing that increased rates may simply lower demand from insane to rational, where prices increase slowly or remain stable for a couple of years.  

I was all in on the last crash, largely because the economics just didn't make sense and there was massive fraud going on (bartenders owning 4 homes, NINJA loans, etc.)  I think increased rates will certainly price some folks on the margins out for awhile, I'm with @St. Louis Bob - I just don't see 5.5% causing a mass exodus or a housing led recession. I could certainly be wrong.  :shrug:

 
tommyGunZ said:
The math is inarguable - you're 100% right.  I don't doubt that we'll see a slowdown in price increases as rates increase, but in many markets (almost all of CA) there is such a shortage for housing that increased rates may simply lower demand from insane to rational, where prices increase slowly or remain stable for a couple of years.  

I was all in on the last crash, largely because the economics just didn't make sense and there was massive fraud going on (bartenders owning 4 homes, NINJA loans, etc.)  I think increased rates will certainly price some folks on the margins out for awhile, I'm with @St. Louis Bob - I just don't see 5.5% causing a mass exodus or a housing led recession. I could certainly be wrong.  :shrug:
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The example above shows a difference of 14% in cost of ownership - the economy hums along on the middle class, and if you don't think a difference of 14% in housing costs (when affordability is already extremely stretched by all metrics) is going to have a drastic impact on the middle class, we'll prob just be talking past each other. 

14% more expensive, 14% less affordable, 14% more going to lending costs, 14% less going into the economy. That is 5.5% versus last year. Start doing those numbers at 6 or 6.5%. 

First time homebuyers have never seen anything like that, and the SLB example of 8.5% is unheard of to them.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
The example above shows a difference of 14% in cost of ownership - the economy hums along on the middle class, and if you don't think a difference of 14% in housing costs (when affordability is already extremely stretched by all metrics) is going to have a drastic impact on the middle class, we'll prob just be talking past each other. 

14% more expensive, 14% less affordable, 14% more going to lending costs, 14% less going into the economy. That is 5.5% versus last year. Start doing those numbers at 6 or 6.5%. 

First time homebuyers have never seen anything like that, and the SLB example of 8.5% is unheard of to them.
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I'm agreeing that it will have an impact; how drastic is open for debate.  Are you predicting 6.5% interest rates in the near future, and a housing led recession?  Because if not, we're probably in agreement.  

 
tommyGunZ said:
The math is inarguable - you're 100% right.  I don't doubt that we'll see a slowdown in price increases as rates increase, but in many markets (almost all of CA) there is such a shortage for housing that increased rates may simply lower demand from insane to rational, where prices increase slowly or remain stable for a couple of years.  

I was all in on the last crash, largely because the economics just didn't make sense and there was massive fraud going on (bartenders owning 4 homes, NINJA loans, etc.)  I think increased rates will certainly price some folks on the margins out for awhile, I'm with @St. Louis Bob - I just don't see 5.5% causing a mass exodus or a housing led recession. I could certainly be wrong.  :shrug:
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Same way in Portland. Mortgage interest rates below 7% or 8% is still healthy if economy is strong with employment and income. For the past  few years (Arguably a decade) US economy was subsidized by government that rescued industries from auto to banking and housing. Now we are on track to what real economy should look like. Buy vs. Rent is the key to each owner occupied purchase regardless of the price point of the purchase or interest rate.   

 
tommyGunZ said:
I'm agreeing that it will have an impact; how drastic is open for debate.  Are you predicting 6.5% interest rates in the near future, and a housing led recession?  Because if not, we're probably in agreement.  
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I'm just theorizing things that could topple the bull market, housing is just an idea, while I prefaced it sounds foolish, I don't think it should be dismissed. 

While supply (or lack of) has been the story for some time now, the report from earlier in the week showed that existing home sales fell at their largest pace in 3 years. Now you can say that is due to the lack of supply (obviously), but there is an underlying current there; the lack of consumers who can afford the limited supply out there. As rates rise (which they are almost guaranteed to do at this juncture), even less people will be able to fill that gap... So what happens? Prices will have to fall to lure buyers back in. 

Rates go down, prices skyrocket, what I'm saying is, what happens when you come off of this decade of almost "free to borrow" money and the rates move aggressively up... I don't think that will cause prices to stagnate, I think it will cause prices to fall until we hit a more 'normal' target of affordability, which again, is extremely stretched right now looking at wage growth compared to price growth (or most any other metric). 

 
& honestly, my goal is to try and spur conversation about what topples this market, what happens in the next 6-24 months that ends this decade of bull market - I'm just throwing one idea out there... I'm really interested in hearing others, because while I don't think it is quite over, I do think we need to start forming personal plans to protect capital for when it does hit. You don't want to start looking for a plan when it is too late - we're late cycle, smart investors are developing their strategies now for preservation.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
& honestly, my goal is to try and spur conversation about what topples this market, what happens in the next 6-24 months that ends this decade of bull market 
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Right now the fundamentals of the economy are about as good as it gets.  There are no chinks in the armor yet - there will likely be indicators that pop up to give warning signals.

 
Sand said:
Right now the fundamentals of the economy are about as good as it gets.  There are no chinks in the armor yet - there will likely be indicators that pop up to give warning signals.
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There is no more free central bank money and the market is unhappy though.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Anyone? Ideas on what ends the bull? Collectively as a group, if everyone has an idea, one of us idiots has to be right.

I think it’s an important discussion - when the bull ends, easily 30%, maybe more downside... Worth figuring out how to protect your assets in advance, not while it’s happening. We’ve got time, but nonetheless - I’m starting to think about this.
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If it was obvious, the market would be pricing it in. Sure, we could throw out 100 guesses and a couple will end up coming to fruition in hindsight, but not sure how that really helps.

That said, how much more upside do you think we have until it happens? If you really think we're going to drop easily 30%+ when it does, it probably makes sense to just get out now.

 
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