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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)

St. Louis Bob said:
I moved all of my 401k & Mrs. SLB's 401k into a total return bond fund Friday.  Pretty happy about it right now.  Had roughly 40% of the rest of our investments already in something similar.
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Which bond funds, if you don't mind me asking? I've had SHY for awhile, but need to pull the rest into a safety net. I've been in SDOW since the high 20's.  :bag:  Regret selling PEATF still  :cry:

 
Just a prediction for tomorrow from  a person that admittedly knows far less about the markets than probably every poster in  here.  I think the markets will open sharply lower--could be down 400-500pts intraday and will finish the day making back some of the losses. I'm guessing the Dow closes down 125-200pts tomorrow.  (Again--I want to make clear that this is nothing more than a gut instinct guess)

 
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jvdesigns2002 said:
Just a prediction for tomorrow from  a person that admittedly knows far less than the markets than probably every poster in  here.  I think the markets will open sharply lower--could be down 400-500pts intraday and will finish the day making back some of the losses. I'm guessing the Dow closes down 125-200pts tomorrow.  (Again--I want to make clear that this is nothing more than a gut instinct guess)
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There will be a bounce tomorrow, I’m confident of that, that’ll be viewed by smart money as a good time to lock profits. This isn’t like Kim Jong Un making some stupid threat, this is real.

Cohn was important, but beyond why he was important, the reason he left is even more important. He lost the tariff war in the White House, the market is now (after ignoring it and everything else it could) realizing a trade war is actually a possibility. They’re going to have to price that in with some downside protection. Furthermore, the NFP on Friday could be the 3rd of a 1, 2, 3 punch. 

Cohn, tariffs, inflation... 

 
I’ve been screaming at the top of my lungs to anyone that would listen about all of the above for the last 5 days. If the NFP comes in really hot, forget about it, DJIA will be 22,500 at some point next week.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Just a prediction for tomorrow from  a person that admittedly knows far less than the markets than probably every poster in  here.  I think the markets will open sharply lower--could be down 400-500pts intraday and will finish the day making back some of the losses. I'm guessing the Dow closes down 125-200pts tomorrow.  (Again--I want to make clear that this is nothing more than a gut instinct guess)
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No one knows what the market is going to do tomorrow or any other day for that matter, so your guess is as good as any!  :thumbup:

 
Ridgeback said:
Which bond funds, if you don't mind me asking? I've had SHY for awhile, but need to pull the rest into a safety net. I've been in SDOW since the high 20's.  :bag:  Regret selling PEATF still  :cry:
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Just total return bond funds in the 401k.  It's important which one but my 401k in particular sucks giant balls. I believe Mrs. SLB is Vanguard.  

 
so maybe tomorrow I'll be able to get a discount on AMZN?

Got a substantial amount of loot burning a hole in my pocket ... but the dang stock just keeps going UP.

 
Had a trailing stop in last night of the YM futures, it got taken out, but a healthy profit nonetheless. Sold TVIX for $9.26, so only about $400 in profit there...

Looking to sell a pop today... Market will shrug this off, for now - it’s just looking for the next event to hopefully sweep this under the rug, the NFP.

 
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So it sounds like Kudlow might be a candidate for the position? 

Larry seems like a nice guy but I disagree with just about everything he stands for. 

 
St. Louis Bob said:
So it sounds like Kudlow might be a candidate for the position? 

Larry seems like a nice guy but I disagree with just about everything he stands for. 
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Nah, I see them getting another 'woman' to go with Cousin It and the Crypt Keeper.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Had a trailing stop in last night of the YM futures, it got taken out, but a healthy profit nonetheless.
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Can you summarize this a bit?  I'm not sure what this means and it sounds interesting.  TIA!

 
Man, MZOR  trading like something big gonna happen. 

68 is a double for me and that’s not even counting the 20K I made selling at 30 from the low 20’s. 

Wish I knew if selling right now would be smart. 

 
NREC34 said:
Man, MZOR  trading like something big gonna happen. 

68 is a double for me and that’s not even counting the 20K I made selling at 30 from the low 20’s. 

Wish I knew if selling right now would be smart. 
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I've been in since the 30's too. Added on a few of those major pull backs. Crazy volatility. I'm holding at this point. I'm willing to see how the MDT relationship plays out for a few years. 

 
I sold some stuff that went long term.  I'm going to start taking those profits when I can.  I'm looking at tax loss harvesting as a realistic option to protect future short term gains.  

Not sure if anyone has looked into this much, it seems a really nice way to smooth volatility and ease tax burden.

 
Sputnikv8 said:
Can you summarize this a bit?  I'm not sure what this means and it sounds interesting.  TIA!
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Instead of a hard stop, it trails the action. So it’s following the direction of the asset to capture maximum gains, but when it turns back the other way, at a certain percentage (or dollar amount), it executes the stop. 

I’ll put a trade like this on when I see an opportunity for huge gains in a quick period, but discipline is the most important thing. 

My target was $35k on this trade by next week, while risking about $6k. I profited nicely, obviously not even remotely close to my goal, but the market proved me wrong while I was watching it. I had to back off of something I had huge conviction on and get out last night & this morning. If I would’ve kept this on, would’ve been that $6k loss. 

 
St. Louis Bob said:
:lmao:
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I was half joking, but I was dialed-in heavily last night. CNBC, laptop, phone... I was up until about 2 am watching - beyond the volume being higher than normal, market was refusing to cave. The futures moved from 24,600 to 24,410 to 24,640 to 24,425 (it had moved well over 1,000 points back and forth by the time I went to bed) and so on - huge range overnight, but both times when it sold to the bottom, the buying reaction was violent and volume was heavy. Asian markets were not selling aggressively either. Knew I had to get out of those futures and as soon as I woke up, I was out of TVIX at like 7am. I was going to leave TVIX on, but I woke up Europe wasn’t selling, the towel was thrown.

Anyways, I think we’re kinda aligned on thinking here (tariffs, trade wars, inflation), so we have to ask some questions as to why nobody is scared, bc the fear didn’t appear to really be there today/last night. Why?

Does the market just feel all of this is noise? Tariffs won’t be signed? If they are signed, no big deal? Trump is going to hire someone that isn’t a moron for Cohn’s Job? If so, he states he needs opposite thinkers discussing ideas, but if Trump is signing tariffs, and someone is anti-tariff, why would a top talent sign in after Cohn appeared to get rolled? Does the market actually believe this guy can get us into better deals without jeopardizing growth? That jobs report was an outlier? 

I obviously don’t have the answers to any of these, but these need to be thought about more. 

Likely scenario where we could see buying; NFP come in at or slightly below expectations, tariff signed with exemptions made, Trump hires someone that isn’t a moron. 

The most important question is what is the outcome with trade? Europe is brilliant targeting Levi’s, Harley, bourbon, etc... if they slap those on, that’s the start of a trade war, IMO. That’s bad for everyone.

 
Steel and aluminum are materials used to create other things. That's a tax on tons of American products in addition  to the raw materials themselves. Our own actions are going to harm us much more than theirs imo.

Plus, iirc, like 70% of the steel consumed in this country is American steel. He's pandering. He's not really protecting anything. 

Aluminum is another story. 90% imported iirc. Steel tariff probably needs to die. Aluminum might be worth fighting over IF we think it brings back aluminum production. But what was the root cause of losing it in the first place? Why weren't we competitively priced? If nobody is asking that, the tariff won't matter for ####.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Steel and aluminum are materials used to create other things. That's a tax on tons of American products in addition  to the raw materials themselves. Our own actions are going to harm us much more than theirs imo.

Plus, iirc, like 70% of the steel consumed in this country is American steel. He's pandering. He's not really protecting anything. 

Aluminum is another story. 90% imported iirc. Steel tariff probably needs to die. Aluminum might be worth fighting over IF we think it brings back aluminum production. But what was the root cause of losing it in the first place? Why weren't we competitively priced? If nobody is asking that, the tariff won't matter for ####.
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This is something the Bernie democrats on the left need to understand as well.  Republicans are handing Democrats an incredible opportunity to become the party of free trade, and I have a bad feeling we’re going to blow it because of those on the far left ignoring the macroeconomic effects and pandering to low information voters on our side.  

 
tommyGunZ said:
This is something the Bernie democrats on the left need to understand as well.  Republicans are handing Democrats an incredible opportunity to become the party of free trade, and I have a bad feeling we’re going to blow it because of those on the far left ignoring the macroeconomic effects and pandering to low information voters on our side.  
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Both sides do that as main strategy now. Nobody wins (except the pathetic excuse we have in the oval office).

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I was half joking, but I was dialed-in heavily last night. CNBC, laptop, phone... I was up until about 2 am watching - beyond the volume being higher than normal, market was refusing to cave. The futures moved from 24,600 to 24,410 to 24,640 to 24,425 (it had moved well over 1,000 points back and forth by the time I went to bed) and so on - huge range overnight, but both times when it sold to the bottom, the buying reaction was violent and volume was heavy. Asian markets were not selling aggressively either. Knew I had to get out of those futures and as soon as I woke up, I was out of TVIX at like 7am. I was going to leave TVIX on, but I woke up Europe wasn’t selling, the towel was thrown.

Anyways, I think we’re kinda aligned on thinking here (tariffs, trade wars, inflation), so we have to ask some questions as to why nobody is scared, bc the fear didn’t appear to really be there today/last night. Why?

Does the market just feel all of this is noise? Tariffs won’t be signed? If they are signed, no big deal? Trump is going to hire someone that isn’t a moron for Cohn’s Job? If so, he states he needs opposite thinkers discussing ideas, but if Trump is signing tariffs, and someone is anti-tariff, why would a top talent sign in after Cohn appeared to get rolled? Does the market actually believe this guy can get us into better deals without jeopardizing growth? That jobs report was an outlier? 

I obviously don’t have the answers to any of these, but these need to be thought about more. 

Likely scenario where we could see buying; NFP come in at or slightly below expectations, tariff signed with exemptions made, Trump hires someone that isn’t a moron. 

The most important question is what is the outcome with trade? Europe is brilliant targeting Levi’s, Harley, bourbon, etc... if they slap those on, that’s the start of a trade war, IMO. That’s bad for everyone.
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Maybe try decaf?

 
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