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Stock Thread (41 Viewers)

GoBirds said:
Do you buy your individual stocks also through Vanguard?
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Yes.

They start you with 25 "discounted" trades ($7). After that it's $20 each.

If you have $50k in VG funds (mf's and or etf's) All trades $7 each.

Safe to say this isn't the broker to use if your "day" trading. 

Under "My Accounts" drop down menu ... bottom left, go to "Buy and Sell" ... under Brokerage Products select "Trade Stocks and Listed Securities"

 
Yield curve continues to flatten. With a DJIA rally of over 1k points, treasuries haven’t sold, the Yen has hardly budged, & Gold is trying to head north of a 5 year range.

To me, it looks like every market besides stocks is positioning for safety - so either a bunch of other markets are wrong, or the stock market is right. Not an invitation to sell bc it will take time to play out, but watching all of these markets, I see a yellow light up there. 

Just my .02.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Yield curve continues to flatten. With a DJIA rally of over 1k points, treasuries haven’t sold, the Yen has hardly budged, & Gold is trying to head north of a 5 year range.

To me, it looks like every market besides stocks is positioning for safety - so either a bunch of other markets are wrong, or the stock market is right. Not an invitation to sell bc it will take time to play out, but watching all of these markets, I see a yellow light up there. 

Just my .02.
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Weirdest piece of this rally is the banks are not participating, even with pretty healthy earnings. 

I can't imagine a rally continuing without JPM, BAC, C, & to a lesser extent WFC participating. If you continue to see pressure on those names, I think that is just another warning flag floating around. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-18/from-citigroup-to-the-fed-curve-inversion-angst-is-intensifying

2-10 lost another basis point today

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/18/bonds-and-fixed-income-data-fed-speeches-on-the-agenda-for-investors.html

I've been talking about the curve for a few months now, amazingly, it has flattened for 9 straight sessions, borderline never happens. 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Weirdest piece of this rally is the banks are not participating, even with pretty healthy earnings. 

I can't imagine a rally continuing without JPM, BAC, C, & to a lesser extent WFC participating. If you continue to see pressure on those names, I think that is just another warning flag floating around. 
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Just going off memory, but didn't banks outperform during that last run of volatility? Could just be not as much room to keep going up.

Should just take WFC out of the equation until they straighten out their compliance issues and are allowed to grow. Independent third party review to track progress is supposed to be done by the end of 3Q, then the Fed goes in. That's your potential movement point for them.

 
RUSF18 said:
Just going off memory, but didn't banks outperform during that last run of volatility? Could just be not as much room to keep going up.

Should just take WFC out of the equation until they straighten out their compliance issues and are allowed to grow. Independent third party review to track progress is supposed to be done by the end of 3Q, then the Fed goes in. That's your potential movement point for them.
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I did say to a lesser extent, but yes, I agree, WFC is a ####### disaster, so I guess we can scrape them from that mix of names. 

Regardless, if banks (who should be considered a barometer of health for the economy) don't have much room to run, then you're picking up nickels and dimes on the train tracks. 

It would be another bearish piece to the equation - safe haven assets are staying bid, yield curve flattening, & banks selling (all while the stock market moves up). If the aforementioned doesn't change course over the next 6-12 weeks, I'd think you've got your red flags in place and the Jan top could possibly be the bull market top. 

Early to speculate, but these are all huge red flags, and anyone who cares about preservation should be paying close attention.

 
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I remember when everyone said Trump was going to be a disaster and destroy everything, gold was supposed to reenter a massive bull market, and things would fall apart - then everyone fell in love with Trump's economy; he was going to juice the economy (which didn't need juicing anyways), growth would be Yuge, and everything was going to be business as usual. This has really been top of mind for me over the last month.

The more I've thought about it, the original predictions were the correct ones IMO, just taking longer than anticipated. 

I almost want more gold - you guys can all laugh at me now, but when cycles end, nobody is laughing at the guy who was defensive a little early. 

 
My last gold rambling for the day:

I see two scenarios playing out right now, and they both start/end with the Fed. 

Scenario 1:

They get frightened by the curve heading towards an inversion and pull back on tightening - bullish gold

Scenario 2:

They continue tightening, the curve continues to flatten and eventually inverts - while the higher rates are obviously bearish gold, the inversion signals recession, coupled with the insane debts and impending defaults brought on by high rates and record debt, along with the Fed having little ammo to fight a recession sends investors seeking a safe haven into gold.

If the curve does invert, I'm going to start DCA into short positions on companies with huge debt obligations... I'm starting my research on this now to look for the juiciest names to bet against.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
I remember when everyone said Trump was going to be a disaster and destroy everything, gold was supposed to reenter a massive bull market, and things would fall apart - then everyone fell in love with Trump's economy; he was going to juice the economy (which didn't need juicing anyways), growth would be Yuge, and everything was going to be business as usual. This has really been top of mind for me over the last month.

The more I've thought about it, the original predictions were the correct ones IMO, just taking longer than anticipated. 

I almost want more gold - you guys can all laugh at me now, but when cycles end, nobody is laughing at the guy who was defensive a little early. 
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I'll only speak for myself, but I'm certainly not laughing at you...I just think a lot of your posts read as very black and white in what you expect will happen, this post itself being a good example. Maybe some confirmation bias going on in how you approach things. 

I don't know, I feel like you just need to have a plan and stick with that plan. Save what you can, invest what you can, diversify as you go, etc. There's a whole lot of room in between being 100% (or whatever) invested in equities one day and then being 95% cash and gold the next. I'm turning 35 this year and have plenty of cash sitting in savings (too much, actually, but we don't own a house yet) so I treat my brokerage account like an extension of my retirement accounts. If I lose 20% of it over the next year, it would suck, but I'd probably #### it up way more if I spent a bunch of time trying to find the perfect exit point. Hell, I sacrificed like 3% gains in like a week back in the later part of the year because I tried to do just that. 

Just my  :2cents:

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Worst part about AMZN is that I read this story about Trump as soon as it came out, premarket was around $1,509 - thought about shorting, but just couldn't bring myself to shorting AMZN :kicksrock:

Anyways, hopefully Trump keeps jawboning this lower so we can all buy more for cheaper. 
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I hope everyone took this advise. I'm floored at how quickly amzn has rebounded. 

Earnings report due out, numbers of subscribers are staggering, joint venture with Best Buy, bla, bla, bla, ..

Hopes were dashed ... but now I believe $2000 by eoy is again plausible. 

 
Bossman said:
I hope everyone took this advise. I'm floored at how quickly amzn has rebounded. 

Earnings report due out, numbers of subscribers are staggering, joint venture with Best Buy, bla, bla, bla, ..

Hopes were dashed ... but now I believe $2000 by eoy is again plausible. 
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I bought more at 1323 but not nearly enough. I guess it’s never enough. 

 
Bossman said:
I hope everyone took this advise. I'm floored at how quickly amzn has rebounded. 

Earnings report due out, numbers of subscribers are staggering, joint venture with Best Buy, bla, bla, bla, ..

Hopes were dashed ... but now I believe $2000 by eoy is again plausible. 
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All I care about is the price over the next couple years. If it holds anywhere near that level over the next couple years, I’ll have all three of my boys college costs covered (by my BFF Amazon), which would be ridiculous and make retiring actually possible. ;)

 
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Capella said:
I bought more at 1323 but not nearly enough. I guess it’s never enough. 
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I don't know about you, but it never feels like I'm buying much when purchasing 10 shares or 15 shares. But, string together a few of those lots and next thing you know, AMZN is a big chunk of my holdings. 

 
Don't Noonan said:
Amazon reports 1st quarter earnings a week from today.  I hope you guys are right but I will settle for $1,800 year end.
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Lol, I’d settle for where it is now as long as it maintains for a couple years. Anywhere up higher is effing gravy. I’m not fully vested yet. 

 
Sorry if I'm Bogarting this topic with my babble. Let me know if it's too much and I'll scale it down a few notches ...

amzn finishing the day strong ... but last couple of days it's really grown legs after hours.

If it happens again today, we could be at $1580 by opening tomorrow. We're about to find out.

Why would a stocks movement be so extreme as the market closes? People waiting to get in that can't during the day? 

 
Brony said:
I don't know about you, but it never feels like I'm buying much when purchasing 10 shares or 15 shares. But, string together a few of those lots and next thing you know, AMZN is a big chunk of my holdings. 
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I’m really hoping for a split so my 10 shares could become 100. Now that I’m hooked on options, I’d love to place covered calls but it requires 100 shares. That aint happening at $1600 per share. Plus an announced split would drive the price up and also inspire casual investors to buy shares. I think some folks are turned off at the four-digit price tag per share.

 
Bossman said:
Sorry if I'm Bogarting this topic with my babble. Let me know if it's too much and I'll scale it down a few notches ...

amzn finishing the day strong ... but last couple of days it's really grown legs after hours.

If it happens again today, we could be at $1580 by opening tomorrow. We're about to find out.

Why would a stocks movement be so extreme as the market closes? People waiting to get in that can't during the day? 
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yesterday's boost was related to the letter Bezos sent to shareholders that said Prime members were greater than 100MM worldwide. think that came out late in the day.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
100MM - curious about the timing to release that yesterday and not drop into the earnings call. 
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They sort of quasi-report it in the 10-Q under subscription revenue.  I guess they blend in some other sub revenue in there but it's not like you can't extrapolate that a bit and make a guess at active subs.

 
culdeus said:
They sort of quasi-report it in the 10-Q under subscription revenue.  I guess they blend in some other sub revenue in there but it's not like you can't extrapolate that a bit and make a guess at active subs.
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But they've never actually put it out there - prob excited about 100MM, but why not just wait a week and put it into the earnings call?

Maybe it isn't something they intend on reporting every quarter, this was a one time thing and they'll let us know again at like 200MM.

 
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Lovely day - stocks, bonds, RE all well down.   :scared:

And in other news, it looks like people really aren't smoking anymore.  PM just got kicked in the balls today.  Luckily it's a tiny position.

 
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Bossman said:
Yes.

They start you with 25 "discounted" trades ($7). After that it's $20 each.

If you have $50k in VG funds (mf's and or etf's) All trades $7 each.

Safe to say this isn't the broker to use if your "day" trading. 

Under "My Accounts" drop down menu ... bottom left, go to "Buy and Sell" ... under Brokerage Products select "Trade Stocks and Listed Securities"
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What’s the philosophy on ETF’s vs Mutual Fund? Curious to get some opinions......appreciate all the help. 

Also pumped on Amazon but disappointed I’ve only got 6 shares in my Roth. Seems steep now but also seems like one of those 10 years from now will wish we overpaid today. 

 
GoBirds said:
What’s the philosophy on ETF’s vs Mutual Fund? Curious to get some opinions......appreciate all the help. 

Also pumped on Amazon but disappointed I’ve only got 6 shares in my Roth. Seems steep now but also seems like one of those 10 years from now will wish we overpaid today. 
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In general hold MFs in tax advantaged accounts and ETFs in either.  ETFs can perform swaps that don't count as a taxable event.  If you are invested in an active MF you can get a whopping tax bill at the end of the year without a whole lot to show for it.

 
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Sand said:
In general hold MFs in tax advantaged accounts and ETFs in either.  ETFs can perform swaps that don't count as a taxable event.  If you are invested in an active MF you can get a whopping tax bill at the end of the year without a whole lot to show for it.
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Is there any reason people go Mutual Fund over an ETF? ETF seems like the better option but I guess are relatively new so old school investors stick MF?

 
GoBirds said:
Is there any reason people go Mutual Fund over an ETF? ETF seems like the better option but I guess are relatively new so old school investors stick MF?
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In times with greater volatility like we are in now an argument can be made for active management  (mutual funds) over passive management  (most ETFs).   Some managers just have a better track record of beating their benchmarks. 

 Sand is absolutely correct that ETFs are far more tax efficient in that they don't pass on large capital gains onto shareholders at year end that mutual funds do.  Also, with ETFs they trade in real time which is nice.

Personally I like ETFs a bit more but do use some mutual funds as well as individual stocks.

 
Bummer. Sorry to get your hopes up! A friend of mine, who works in client service for a brokerage, was talking about them Re:GOOGL what I thought was fairly recently, but maybe not.

 
pecorino said:
I cannot find any way to trade mini-options on AMZN and much of what I'm seeing implies that the whole concept has been discontinued. Oh well. It was a nice idea.
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amzn individual stock price is pretty ridiculous.

They should really consider a split 2 for 1 ... or even 4 for 1 which would bring it down to about $375 right now. 

The peaks and valleys wouldn't be so extreme either. 

 
GoBirds said:
Is there any reason people go Mutual Fund over an ETF? ETF seems like the better option but I guess are relatively new so old school investors stick MF?
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One advantage of mutual funds is that some brokers/funds allow auto investment plans without loads and/or fees.  I have two funds through Schwab that I currently drop in $200 twice per month with no fees. 

In my eyes, ETF's encourage active trading and trying to time the market.  Mutual funds are a slow burn.

 
guru_007 said:
One advantage of mutual funds is that some brokers/funds allow auto investment plans without loads and/or fees.  I have two funds through Schwab that I currently drop in $200 twice per month with no fees. 

In my eyes, ETF's encourage active trading and trying to time the market.  Mutual funds are a slow burn.
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I assume with Vanguard there are no loads and fees seem reasonable but ETF are better? Isn't Schwab pretty low on fees too for their funds?

 
Bossman said:
amzn individual stock price is pretty ridiculous.

They should really consider a split 2 for 1 ... or even 4 for 1 which would bring it down to about $375 right now. 

The peaks and valleys wouldn't be so extreme either. 
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AMZN $2001 by end-of-year.  You heard it here, first.

 
Bossman said:
Me too. What goes up (S&P) ... must come down!

500 TVIX @ $7.18 ... for 1500 @ $8.53
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Tired of waiting for this to come back into the 8's and 9's.

Seems the tvix game is to be played in the 7's now.

sold 500 TVIX @ $7.42 

buy 500 TVIX @ $7.18 

sold 500 TVIX @ $7.48

 
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