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Decided to press my luck while still guaranteeing a healthy profit, just pressed on NVDA - 40 $262.50 puts that expire today, only $500 - the mother of all money wasted and lit on fire. Need everything to roll over to cash this ticket, but man, that would lead to a great weekend!

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Decided to press my luck while still guaranteeing a healthy profit, just pressed on NVDA - 40 $262.50 puts that expire today, only $500 - the mother of all money wasted and lit on fire. Need everything to roll over to cash this ticket, but man, that would lead to a great weekend!
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No offense but I think trading options contract with 1 day or less to expiration is the epitome of stupid.  Your thesis on the day was correct.  Had you wanted to risk $750 - you could have just sold 1 $ES contract with a 15 point stop and not be limited to such a short term expiration, 1 day limited profit and still had the same defined risk.  At this point you could have secured about the same profit and who knows how far this short term dip will go (ie: the potential to make much more than you will on this trade).  You make a similar trade like this 10x and I can promise you it's a LT loser strategy.

 
siffoin said:
No offense but I think trading options contract with 1 day or less to expiration is the epitome of stupid.  Your thesis on the day was correct.  Had you wanted to risk $750 - you could have just sold 1 $ES contract with a 15 point stop and not be limited to such a short term expiration, 1 day limited profit and still had the same defined risk.  At this point you could have secured about the same profit and who knows how far this short term dip will go (ie: the potential to make much more than you will on this trade).  You make a similar trade like this 10x and I can promise you it's a LT loser strategy.
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I know, def stupid, no offense taken - thought we'd have more fear and a chipmaker would be a target. Furthermore, on a Friday, the hope was some derisking. The fact that a rally is being led by a small handful of stocks made me feel like we could see some aggressive selling this afternoon. 

Again, pretty stupid - basically punted a couple of hundred hoping for a big selloff and chasing $10k. Straight lotto idiot mentality. 

Not a strategy I'd implore unless it was with a plethora of house money though. 

 
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Still 3 hours for everyone to press the panic button :excited:

It really has been the opposite of panic today, lol. 

Everything is light in volume and in a tight range. 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Still 3 hours for everyone to press the panic button :excited:

It really has been the opposite of panic today, lol. 

Everything is light in volume and in a tight range. 
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Seems this economy can not be stopped.

All the outside factors saying that markets should TANK .. every day talk of the bottom falling out ...and no reason for it not to.

.... and it just keeps plodding along. 

 
Bossman said:
Seems this economy can not be stopped.

All the outside factors saying that markets should TANK .. every day talk of the bottom falling out ...and no reason for it not to.

.... and it just keeps plodding along. 
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Well people saying the market should tank are looking at things like value or similarities to historical bubbles.  Bubbles in Stocks, Housing, Healthcare, Auto Loans, Higher Education, Commercial Real Estate?  Harumph.  In the past those things would definitely be of concern.

But really it's different this time...you know a new paradigm.  But shush, we can't say that like we did in 1999...so let's say something like it's all just a sustainable bubble.  Ya know - The Road Goes On Forever And The Party Never Ends.  The wind at our back as we sail smoothly into the red sky at night.

Just repeat "Sustainable Buibble...Sustainable Bubble...Sustainable Bubble"  It's become my meditation mantra.  No worries at all - to infinity and beyond!

Harumph!

In all seriousness.  I believe the market to continue bullish although many of the internal components that I observe have weakened considerably over the past months- though they have begun to strengthen over the past couple weeks.  From where we stand right now I think worst case it would take some time (read weeks/months) for this market to turn bearish - WORST CASE.  Best case: Sustainable Bubble for the next 10-15 years - then I retire to some country with free healthcare and leave the mess to you younger bagholders.

Here's a current LT Chart - we last saw it in Feb

SPY LT Chart

 
siffoin said:
Well people saying the market should tank are looking at things like value or similarities to historical bubbles.  Bubbles in Stocks, Housing, Healthcare, Auto Loans, Higher Education, Commercial Real Estate?  Harumph.  In the past those things would definitely be of concern.

But really it's different this time...you know a new paradigm.  But shush, we can't say that like we did in 1999...so let's say something like it's all just a sustainable bubble.  Ya know - The Road Goes On Forever And The Party Never Ends.  The wind at our back as we sail smoothly into the red sky at night.

Just repeat "Sustainable Buibble...Sustainable Bubble...Sustainable Bubble"  It's become my meditation mantra.  No worries at all - to infinity and beyond!

Harumph!

In all seriousness.  I believe the market to continue bullish although many of the internal components that I observe have weakened considerably over the past months- though they have begun to strengthen over the past couple weeks.  From where we stand right now I think worst case it would take some time (read weeks/months) for this market to turn bearish - WORST CASE.  Best case: Sustainable Bubble for the next 10-15 years - then I retire to some country with free healthcare and leave the mess to you younger bagholders.

Here's a current LT Chart - we last saw it in Feb

SPY LT Chart
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My issue with the "sustainable bubble" is simple; central banks are pulling liquidity from the system - nothing to keep it inflated. 

I keep going back to the yield curve, which continues to flatten... It's a self fulfilling prophecy once that happens. Down to 37 points, was in the high 35 range at one point today. Once it inverts, the party is drawing to an end. Bond markets are clearly seeing something that the equity markets aren't.

 
Bond markets are reacting to mismatch in ecu vs fed rates imo. 

Got a bunch of stuff going long term at end of quarter. Going to be holding my breath to make it that far and rebalance. 

Gdb my tax bill.  

 
siffoin said:
Best case: Sustainable Bubble for the next 10-15 years - then I retire to some country with free healthcare and leave the mess to you younger bagholders.
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No need for that.  If I retired now and engineered my income to be under 68k I can get insurance for $75 a month.  Craziness.

I'm keeping up pretty heavily with economic indicators and agree we aren't quite at a worry spot yet.  Only big honker right now is cars and car loans.  Dropping off and credit is a big bubble - getting ugly.  At least if it does pop I'll be able to pick up a lightly used Benz for a few racks.  

I'm still in risk on mode (which for me is 60-30-10).  

 
Sand said:
No need for that.  If I retired now and engineered my income to be under 68k I can get insurance for $75 a month.  Craziness.

I'm keeping up pretty heavily with economic indicators and agree we aren't quite at a worry spot yet.  Only big honker right now is cars and car loans.  Dropping off and credit is a big bubble - getting ugly.  At least if it does pop I'll be able to pick up a lightly used Benz for a few racks.  

I'm still in risk on mode (which for me is 60-30-10).  
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What do you mean about car loans? I don’t need another car for a bit. My middle son turns 16 in two years and my wife’s Highlander will be 8 years old with over 100k. Might be a give it to him and get my wife something newish.

 
stbugs said:
What do you mean about car loans? I don’t need another car for a bit. My middle son turns 16 in two years and my wife’s Highlander will be 8 years old with over 100k. Might be a give it to him and get my wife something newish.
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Car sales are slowing, car loan delinquencies are rising, payments are at an all time high, lots of lease cars will be hitting the market soon.

It all adds up to a buyer's market, you'd think.  Particularly for off lease luxury vehicles (one thing I read a bit back is about 70% of new luxury vehicles on the roads are leases.  That's nuts.)

 
Sand said:
Car sales are slowing, car loan delinquencies are rising, payments are at an all time high, lots of lease cars will be hitting the market soon.

It all adds up to a buyer's market, you'd think.  Particularly for off lease luxury vehicles (one thing I read a bit back is about 70% of new luxury vehicles on the roads are leases.  That's nuts.)
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Hmm, good news for me then. I've never leased a car in my life. Bought new at times and bought used as well. Leasing always seemed like people trying to get more car than they can afford. Not surprising when I look around and feel like everyone has great cars. Oh well, I won't mind getting another great deal.

 
stbugs said:
Hmm, good news for me then. I've never leased a car in my life. Bought new at times and bought used as well. Leasing always seemed like people trying to get more car than they can afford. Not surprising when I look around and feel like everyone has great cars. Oh well, I won't mind getting another great deal.
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:yes:

I've never leased.  It helps when I'm driving my long paid off Fit when, upon seeing fleets of Benzes and Range Rovers, that statistically the vast majority of them are rented.  It also means there will be a glut of those hitting the market at some point.

 
stbugs said:
Hmm, good news for me then. I've never leased a car in my life. Bought new at times and bought used as well. Leasing always seemed like people trying to get more car than they can afford. Not surprising when I look around and feel like everyone has great cars. Oh well, I won't mind getting another great deal.
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Not always. Our last one we were ready to buy when they started running a lease special on the very SUV we were lookinf at. After doing the math, it turned out we could lease for 3 years and, if we decided to buy it at the end of the lease, it would cost us an extra $500 all in. To me, worth it to test drive for 3 years and decide if we like it well enough.

 
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Breaking: Trump announces he plans to retaliate against China's retaliation against his $50 billion in tariffs, asking his officials to identify another $200 billion worth of goods to hit with tariffs

-------------------------------

@St. Louis Bob 

In the brief window between this announcement and the close of after hour trading, TVIX was up 5%.

 
cosjobs said:
Daniel Dale‏Verified account @ddale8

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Breaking: Trump announces he plans to retaliate against China's retaliation against his $50 billion in tariffs, asking his officials to identify another $200 billion worth of goods to hit with tariffs

-------------------------------

@St. Louis Bob 

In the brief window between this announcement and the close of after hour trading, TVIX was up 5%.
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a sea of red

 
cosjobs said:
a sea of red
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Had to be an actual bad day at some point. All the others ended up barely negative. That said is Trump just trying to rattle the markets or actually do something? I can’t figure him out. Am I crazy or did it seem like things were happy with China during that summit not that long ago.

We need a new president. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he s just trying to knock Amazon down a peg with everything he’s doing.

 
@siffoin - what do you see in th Tesla short term chart?  I am sitting on a 20 contracts of aug 290 puts.  They are finally back in the money after doubling up yesterday (complete gamble).  I hate this company and see no reason for the recent up tick.  Thx buddy!!!

 
sbonomo said:
@siffoin - what do you see in th Tesla short term chart?  I am sitting on a 20 contracts of aug 290 puts.  They are finally back in the money after doubling up yesterday (complete gamble).  I hate this company and see no reason for the recent up tick.  Thx buddy!!!
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Ideally, you want to buy option contracts ST on the same side of the LT trend.  So if XYZ is Bullish you buy Calls when the 60min trend flips from ST (60min chart) bearish back to ST (60min) bullish - hopefully off some level of daily support.  The opposite is true for Puts.  Buy Puts when the 60m trend flips from bullish to bearish hopefully off some level of resistance.

In this case you are not doing what I'd consider "ideal". IE: You're buying puts when the both the LT (daily) and ST (60min) charts are bullish.  Now I'm not saying these can't be profitable because anything can happen it's just that you are seriously swimming upstream when you implement a trade like this.

The LT Daily chart is bullish and we've got a decent level of support sitting around $315 - that support level will rise over time - but is going to present a significant hurdle for your Puts to actually get ITM.  The ST Hourly chart is also bullish with Support levels in the $345 and $335 area.  Obviously price is off from yesterdays highs, but the 60min trends (though weaker than yesterday) have not yet flipped.  $TSLA  is one of those types of stocks where technicals can flip on a dime.  The question is: at what point do you want to say your hypothesis is wrong - especially since time is ticking against you holding the puts?  These days - after a careful analysis I might say "forget the cheese - let me out of the trap", on a trade like this.  But like you said - you hate the company- and I have been know to do the very same type of trade on the companies I hate (I'm looking at you $FB).  When I take a broader view of this position I do think it's possible the daily support level on $TSLA will get tested before your puts expire in Aug.  However, we are very early in a new Daily Bull Trend, and those trends tend to last 2-6 months.  Ideally support would get tested very soon...but understand that support will rise over time--so $315 today might be $325 in a week and $345 in a month...again all the while the time premium is eroding against you.

 
siffoin said:
Ideally, you want to buy option contracts ST on the same side of the LT trend.  So if XYZ is Bullish you buy Calls when the 60min trend flips from ST (60min chart) bearish back to ST (60min) bullish - hopefully off some level of daily support.  The opposite is true for Puts.  Buy Puts when the 60m trend flips from bullish to bearish hopefully off some level of resistance.

In this case you are not doing what I'd consider "ideal". IE: You're buying puts when the both the LT (daily) and ST (60min) charts are bullish.  Now I'm not saying these can't be profitable because anything can happen it's just that you are seriously swimming upstream when you implement a trade like this.

The LT Daily chart is bullish and we've got a decent level of support sitting around $315 - that support level will rise over time - but is going to present a significant hurdle for your Puts to actually get ITM.  The ST Hourly chart is also bullish with Support levels in the $345 and $335 area.  Obviously price is off from yesterdays highs, but the 60min trends (though weaker than yesterday) have not yet flipped.  $TSLA  is one of those types of stocks where technicals can flip on a dime.  The question is: at what point do you want to say your hypothesis is wrong - especially since time is ticking against you holding the puts?  These days - after a careful analysis I might say "forget the cheese - let me out of the trap", on a trade like this.  But like you said - you hate the company- and I have been know to do the very same type of trade on the companies I hate (I'm looking at you $FB).  When I take a broader view of this position I do think it's possible the daily support level on $TSLA will get tested before your puts expire in Aug.  However, we are very early in a new Daily Bull Trend, and those trends tend to last 2-6 months.  Ideally support would get tested very soon...but understand that support will rise over time--so $315 today might be $325 in a week and $345 in a month...again all the while the time premium is eroding against you.
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@siffoin thanks for taking the time to explain this stuff!  I sold half my position today netting roughly 2100.  At this point my gamble is in the money so to speak.  I know I got extremely lucky doubling up on the contracts yesterday then having the stock get hammered today so I took some profit off the table.  I am going to think about what you told me and possibly get out of the other half tomorrow.  At this point I have a ton of runway to see if this pig finally dies but if I am being honest with myself I am just gambling at this point.  Once again thank you very much for taking time to explain your thoughts to us noobs!

 
stbugs said:
We need a new president. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he s just trying to knock Amazon down a peg with everything he’s doing.
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Hey,  There's a whole board dedicated to this.  Talking about political decisions on the markets is fine, but if we could keep it otherwise neutral that keeps this thread clean and concentrated on what's important - green.

Thanks.   :thumbup:

 
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Sand said:
Hey,  There's a whole board dedicated to this.  Talking about political decisions on the markets is fine, but if we could keep it otherwise neutral that keeps this thread clean and concentrated on what's important - green.

Thanks.   :thumbup:
Click to expand...
He literally talked about the markets in that entire post. 

 
So, RDS:A is with holding about $20 per dividend cycle (4x a year) due to taxes in the Netherlands. This is happening in 2018 but did not happen in 2017 and I am not sure about 2019. I'm thinking of getting rid of RDS:A (100% of it) and moving the money into Apple or Microsoft or something else. Curious to hear what you guys would do. The dividend is about 5.5%, just for your info.

 
siffoin said:
Ideally, you want to buy option contracts ST on the same side of the LT trend.  So if XYZ is Bullish you buy Calls when the 60min trend flips from ST (60min chart) bearish back to ST (60min) bullish - hopefully off some level of daily support.  The opposite is true for Puts.  Buy Puts when the 60m trend flips from bullish to bearish hopefully off some level of resistance.

In this case you are not doing what I'd consider "ideal". IE: You're buying puts when the both the LT (daily) and ST (60min) charts are bullish.  Now I'm not saying these can't be profitable because anything can happen it's just that you are seriously swimming upstream when you implement a trade like this.

The LT Daily chart is bullish and we've got a decent level of support sitting around $315 - that support level will rise over time - but is going to present a significant hurdle for your Puts to actually get ITM.  The ST Hourly chart is also bullish with Support levels in the $345 and $335 area.  Obviously price is off from yesterdays highs, but the 60min trends (though weaker than yesterday) have not yet flipped.  $TSLA  is one of those types of stocks where technicals can flip on a dime.  The question is: at what point do you want to say your hypothesis is wrong - especially since time is ticking against you holding the puts?  These days - after a careful analysis I might say "forget the cheese - let me out of the trap", on a trade like this.  But like you said - you hate the company- and I have been know to do the very same type of trade on the companies I hate (I'm looking at you $FB).  When I take a broader view of this position I do think it's possible the daily support level on $TSLA will get tested before your puts expire in Aug.  However, we are very early in a new Daily Bull Trend, and those trends tend to last 2-6 months.  Ideally support would get tested very soon...but understand that support will rise over time--so $315 today might be $325 in a week and $345 in a month...again all the while the time premium is eroding against you.
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Wow, this is an impressive level of detail. Thanks for posting, siffoin. I have a general question for you, no urgency to respond at all, just me wondering.

I fully understand how options work, but never felt the need to executed trades on them, as it doesn't fit my investment objectives. I don't pick many stocks, but the few that I own for growth outside of retirement, etc. planning are positions where I want to be long because I'm confident in my DD of the company's core business and where I feel they're headed, supported by a deep dive into the financials and basic ratio analysis to get a feel for value. When you talk about 60-minute price trends and longer term price trends with historical support, do you already know all the underlying details of the company/DD is done and are purely focusing on price trends at that point for very short term trading? TSLA for example, I'm assuming you know them inside and out before going to price movements to make a decision on put/call options. 

I'm sure it's because I don't actively trade, but I tend to not care (potentially at my peril and all) about price trends if I'm comfy with all other analysis that I've done since I'm buy and hold. Just genuinely curious, thanks. 

 
Magic_Man said:
What are some cheap stocks that folks are buying right now? Not penny stocks cheap.
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JNJ, full disclosure I work there, so a natural bias. It's crazy cheap right now, getting hammered short-term on currency and skepticism about the $30B Actelion acquisition last year. Announced at a Jeffries conference 2 weeks ago $50B on the table for transactions following tax reform, and looking to do a number of smaller transactions in the near future. Lots of work in place to re-align the portfolio across the businesses and focus on the high-margin businesses. Down from a 52-week high of $148 to $122, forward P/E of 14 and change. Decent buy and hold value IMO. 

 
Mario Kart said:
So, RDS:A is with holding about $20 per dividend cycle (4x a year) due to taxes in the Netherlands. This is happening in 2018 but did not happen in 2017 and I am not sure about 2019. I'm thinking of getting rid of RDS:A (100% of it) and moving the money into Apple or Microsoft or something else. Curious to hear what you guys would do. The dividend is about 5.5%, just for your info.
Click to expand...
I own a bunch of this-mainly for the dividend.  With your info I'm considering bailing.  Up about 30% in the last year so no regrets selling.

 
mquinnjr said:
JNJ, full disclosure I work there, so a natural bias. It's crazy cheap right now, getting hammered short-term on currency and skepticism about the $30B Actelion acquisition last year. Announced at a Jeffries conference 2 weeks ago $50B on the table for transactions following tax reform, and looking to do a number of smaller transactions in the near future. Lots of work in place to re-align the portfolio across the businesses and focus on the high-margin businesses. Down from a 52-week high of $148 to $122, forward P/E of 14 and change. Decent buy and hold value IMO. 
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Cheap as in a few bucks a share

 
mquinnjr said:
JNJ, full disclosure I work there, so a natural bias. It's crazy cheap right now, getting hammered short-term on currency and skepticism about the $30B Actelion acquisition last year. Announced at a Jeffries conference 2 weeks ago $50B on the table for transactions following tax reform, and looking to do a number of smaller transactions in the near future. Lots of work in place to re-align the portfolio across the businesses and focus on the high-margin businesses. Down from a 52-week high of $148 to $122, forward P/E of 14 and change. Decent buy and hold value IMO. 
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Buy and hold forever stock (and I've had a bunch of it since 2005 or so).  I may look at it again and see if it's worth adding to.

 
BTW I think I'm gonna dig up my post when I bought in, print it out, and just rub it all over my body until completion.

 
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