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Stock Thread (34 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Capella
Footballguy
The short answer is "scoreboard"- clearly the market thinks it sucked.
Obviously the EPS number was very good, but a very good number was already priced in. What wasn't priced in was missing on revenues and lowering their Q4 revenue guidance (among other things).
Yes, it is. I'm going to wait a bit now. Usually when you double the earnings per share estimate things go well.
Funny how beating earnings by 83% is worse than missing revenue by 0.9%. To me, that basically says that the market is going down and it's looking for anything negative to push it down.
Capella
Footballguy
It's a negative market. I knew earnings would blow out as they did, but the revenue miss sucks.
I think they need to get better at guidance like MSFT (still up 4% total today even with aftermarket):
I think AMZN is still growing so much that they haven't gotten good at being conservative and always beating estimates.
You guys are looking at the wrong numbers- ignore the ridiculously low EPS that they crush every quarter (they beat those by 168% in Q1, 107% in Q2, and 75% in Q3- notice a pattern?). Average wall street estimates were ~$5.62/sh, which they beat by 2.3%. Then look at the miss on revenues, the lowering of Q4 revenue estimates, the huge range for Q4 earnings guidance, the disappointing international numbers, and a host of other things- it simply was not a good report.
To put things into perspective, at ~$1650 they are STILL up ~40% on the year and ~120% over the last two (and back to where they closed on Wednesday, lol). It shouldn't be surprising that it's getting hit based on this report, which by most accounts was disappointing.
Damn. I bet Bezos is going to have cut back and eat Great Value Fruit Spins for a few weeks (instead of Fruit Loops).
https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-Fruit-Spins-Cereal-17-oz/20469703
https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-Fruit-Spins-Cereal-17-oz/20469703
culdeus
Footballguy
And the overall market is flat for the year. To justify a valuation above baseline you have to dominate. They didn't. It happens. I would be looking for the typical 4Q pop they get when holiday buying starts up.
Earnings estimates weren’t $5.62. They were $3.14 on every site I’ve looked at. Maybe those were some whisper numbers of beating the estimates by 80%, but $5.62 wasn’t the actual estimated Q3 earnings.
If we were in an upswing of the market, i.e. 6 months ago I think this would have been a good report. In today’s market the slightest bad news is considered bad news and good portions will be ignored.
I’m waiting to buy anything right now. Sentiment is clearly negative so I think we’ve got more downside to go.
Bossman
Footballguy
Looking to pick up 10 more at this price but not sure amzn will get this low again.I just got 10 more amzn for $1618 ? WTH is going on?!
Too much of the big boys buying it now I suppose.
Might just grab it at the 1650 it's at now. Still a bargain.
ETA: Lowball offer in for 10 @ $1621 ... doubt it triggers but the day is young.
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Correct, it shouldn't be controversial that this report fell short of expectations as the stock price is telling us that. However, I'd point out that the "typical 4Q" pop thing is also built into expectations. Kind of how you hear people say "I'm going to buy UPS and Fed Ex in December because they're going to crush it around the holidays". Sure, but everyone knows that so "crushing it" is already priced in. To go higher they need to crush it by more than what is already priced in, which AMZN didn't do this time (next time is tbd).
Yes, that's the number wall street actually expected and had priced in. Obviously no one was expecting $3.14/sh otherwise the stock would be skyrocketing right now.
6 months ago when they reported the market was actually down on the year, but 3 months ago it was doing well- they beat that lowball number by a much larger % than this time, and they still finished red on the day after opening higher.
Bossman
Footballguy
it triggered.Bossman said:
My goodness, this seems too good to be true.
I shoulda bought more. All this "doom and gloom" talk made me hesitate to see if I might be able to get in even lower.
Economy is still thriving (as far as I'm concerned) and amazon is still the indisputable leader in eCommerce that it was 2 weeks ago.
Just a matter of when. Could be next week. Could be next year ... but she'll be back to where she was.
Wouldn't shock me if it bounces $200 by end of next week ... and I'll be tempted to "lock in profit"
I bought more at $1625. Good luck to you. I’m definitely taking profits if the PPS even approaches 1800. With this kind of volatility, I want to be trading.
Not sure when I want to get more. I missed the real lows first thing this morning but late afternoon seems like the times we always get the pressure down or up. I definitely wasn’t thinking I’d easily be able to get more in the 16s.
culdeus
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Crazy. I've got enough exposure already. Definitely wish I had been smarter knowing that we still had some blood letting in the market as a whole, but today is very confusing. I mean, they beat even the whisper numbers (walloping the estimates) of earnings and missed revenue by 0.9%. I know they missed and I can understand, but it's lost 10% in value Friday and today. Google missed and it's down 3%. Just weird.
Bossman
Footballguy
I'm up to my eyeballs in amzn again ... but will likely grab more if can can convince myself that this is the bottom.
I’m not looking for the bottom. Just buying five more shares every time it drops more than 3%. Dollar cost averaging until I run out of principal or until it bounces.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I was very close to buying today, but the 125 p/e ratio spooked me a little. I understand it's a growing, huge company, but still that's a huge number. About 3x Google's
The PE ratio isn’t even that. That’s without Q3 they just reported. If you look at Q3 and Q4 2018 earnings they should end up around $20+ per share or 70/80 p/e. The funny thing is that earnings wise they are doing great and that number may continue to climb really fast. It’s the revenue miss that hurts.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yep. If they don’t miss revenue there’s no drop. I seem to remember them missing a little revenue wise not that many months ago but the earnings were way more so it was OK. It was a completely different sentiment back then and that’s one of the biggest differences. If you were just looking at earnings in the report you’d be really happy.
I have no clue. This sucks. It’s doing way worse than anyone else. Definitely targeted by some of the algorithms. It’s down almost 20% from the highs on Thursday before earnings even though it beat earnings forecast by 80%. The market is very negative. I just can’t commit anything else because I just don’t know. The after hours on Friday was optimistic but hot damn today just reversed course.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
If they can be that profitable, they can find opportunities to sacrifice profits to hit their top line numbers when it warrants. They need to get CSCO good at managing their quarters, but somehow Bezos strikes me as the kind of guy who just DGAF.
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
Wow. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=RHT
When I saw the news this morning it was up 16%. Check again at lunch at up 45%? Least someone is makin money in the market today.
When I saw the news this morning it was up 16%. Check again at lunch at up 45%? Least someone is makin money in the market today.
Capella
Footballguy
jabarony
Footballguy
jabarony
Footballguy
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culdeus
Footballguy
This is the risk of being held by every institutional fund and etf that exists. When there is a market swing you get to be the tax loss harvested rather than the harvestor.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Bought AMZN at $1505 today
Jayrok
Footballguy
Hello friends. I feel sure this has been discussed at some point in the thread but I'm having a hard time searching.
For those that are self-investors, which platform do you prefer? I have an old 401k (been sitting there costing me monthly maint fees) I would like to roll into an IRA to start investing. I know that may limit some platforms like TradeStation but others seem to allow rollover IRAs, such as eTrade and TD Ameritrade.
eTrade, TD, Fidelity, Ally, Schwab. Is one online brokerage any better than another? For regular brokerage accounts, is something like TradeStation or Robinhood recommended?
Thanks in advance for any info/advice.
For those that are self-investors, which platform do you prefer? I have an old 401k (been sitting there costing me monthly maint fees) I would like to roll into an IRA to start investing. I know that may limit some platforms like TradeStation but others seem to allow rollover IRAs, such as eTrade and TD Ameritrade.
eTrade, TD, Fidelity, Ally, Schwab. Is one online brokerage any better than another? For regular brokerage accounts, is something like TradeStation or Robinhood recommended?
Thanks in advance for any info/advice.
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I suspect that in a few months, this will look like a bargain, let alone ten years, if that is your horizon. I bought five shares at 1730, more at 1625, more at 1590 and five more at 1510. Gives me a modest 20 shares at an average of 1610. I feel pretty good about that and will buy more if it dips into the mid 14s, but I’d prefer it bounce up from here.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I use Schwab also, though haven't used any others for comparison.
