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Well it looks like there is a roller coaster turnaround happening - just wish it wouldn't happen a day after Trump touts that it is a "buying opportunity" where he will take credit for the up move. 

 
ffldrew said:
Well it looks like there is a roller coaster turnaround happening - just wish it wouldn't happen a day after Trump touts that it is a "buying opportunity" where he will take credit for the up move. 
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It’s a marathon, not a sprint.

That quote will be out there forever.

A relief rally is in order.

 
proteus126 said:
The fear level has risen sharply.  Here, on the FIRE forums, in the Washington Post columns.  Not existential panic yet, which dampens my buying enthusiasm, but it is there.

Monday had elements of capitulation in it, crushing sectors that are considered safer havens.  We'll see how things hold the next few weeks.
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Don't disagree that there is some fear, but not nearly enough to be strong signal that a bottom is forming IMO. Of course, the market doesn't need capitulation in order to rebound, but there are still too many people with the "buy the dip, the market is on sale" mentality for me to think there's been capitulation.

Obviously we'll learn over the next few weeks, just pointing out that with the size of the moves, a few more bad weeks could take a few more good years to make back.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
If it is a classic bear market rally, I think the S&P gets to the 2600 area pretty quickly, I’d look to sell around there.
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Lets see if this happens: This tops out at around 2470-2520, drops to 2250-2350 in early January and then a powerful multi month rally taking us back up to at least 2700.

 
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Don't Noonan said:
Care to go record to how far you think the market falls?  I don't remember you calling this drop a month ago but apparently after a 20% drop in the S&P 500 you think the market should go lower?
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I've been investing for a long time, but I don't make firm target predictions because I'm humble enough to admit that no one knows where the market is going in the next 5 minutes never mind longer term. I'm a pretty firm believer that the market is efficient, and thus correctly priced the vast majority of the time based on current publicly available information. However, I've been consistently bearish in here going back to early October, when most everyone was still in buy the dip/great buying opportunity camp because I thought more bad news was coming.

I don't think being down 20% from the highs precludes us from going lower, no. I know most people measure things the same way you do (from the highs), but why do we ignore how far from the lows we are? I've said this a bunch of times, but the market went up over 300% over a decade- a 20% down move barely moves the needle if you look at it longer term despite the severe pain we're experiencing short term.

I do think the risks are more balanced now than they were, but still think the downside outweighs the upside over the short/intermediate term.

 
humpback said:
I've been investing for a long time, but I don't make firm target predictions because I'm humble enough to admit that no one knows where the market is going in the next 5 minutes never mind longer term. I'm a pretty firm believer that the market is efficient, and thus correctly priced the vast majority of the time based on current publicly available information. However, I've been consistently bearish in here going back to early October, when most everyone was still in buy the dip/great buying opportunity camp because I thought more bad news was coming.

I don't think being down 20% from the highs precludes us from going lower, no. I know most people measure things the same way you do (from the highs), but why do we ignore how far from the lows we are? I've said this a bunch of times, but the market went up over 300% over a decade- a 20% down move barely moves the needle if you look at it longer term despite the severe pain we're experiencing short term.

I do think the risks are more balanced now than they were, but still think the downside outweighs the upside over the short/intermediate term.
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Fair enough.  I appreciate the response.  To be clear, I agree that 20% isn't a magical number that says it is time to buy.  I just don't remember you being bearish back in October.  I have been investing for a long time as well and do this for a living and there is a disconnect between market sentiment and fundamentals.  Put me in the camp that upside outweighs the downside over the short/intermediate/long term.

 
proteus126 said:
You gotta buy sometime.

Why not plan to buy some at the major resistance levels?  We are at one now.  There's one at S&P 2100 or so.  Next one down is what, 1850 or so?  We've got a nice discount going right now, so nibbling seems fine to me.
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I haven't bought much yet (did nibble at BX 10 days ago (it's flat)), but have just moved more monies into my taxable accounts, made a Roth contribution, and told the wife we're in personal austerity mode as I want to aggressively raise capital.

And I TLH'ed this morning again near the low.  Hopefully enough to be able to tax gain harvest a bit and keep enough around for the 3k deduction through 2020.

 
humpback said:
I'm a pretty firm believer that the market is efficient, and thus correctly priced the vast majority of the time based on current publicly available information. 
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I'm a firm believer that the markets are anything but efficient - driven by momentum (algos and humans), sentiment, exogenous news, etc.  Markets tend to over and undershoot.  

Don't Noonan said:
To be clear, I agree that 20% isn't a magical number that says it is time to buy.  
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Maybe just me, but I keep wondering if the algos that run the short term market these days play off of these inflection points.  We've hit some resistance points with accuracy in the last year.  Or just me seeing patterns where there are none.   :tinfoilhat:

-------

BTW, if we thought the markets were wild, HFS have a look at oil.  +8% today.  I'm struggling to think of what news would cause this - did Venezuela shut down PDVSA?  Iran decide to stop pumping? Tell me the markets are efficient when you look at that swing.  :boxing:

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Ive seen this comment so much, like an unbelievable amount of times from so many sources; is it possible they’re going to deteriorate and the market is looking forwards? 
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Sure, everything is possible.  I can paint a scenario where I get bearish but I think the market is pricing in high odds of a recession in the next year.  I just don't see it.  2% GDP growth is still growth even if not the 3% growth this year.

 
Sand said:
I'm a firm believer that the markets are anything but efficient - driven by momentum (algos and humans), sentiment, exogenous news, etc.  Markets tend to over and undershoot.  

Maybe just me, but I keep wondering if the algos that run the short term market these days play off of these inflection points.  We've hit some resistance points with accuracy in the last year.  Or just me seeing patterns where there are none.   :tinfoilhat:

-------

BTW, if we thought the markets were wild, HFS have a look at oil.  +8% today.  I'm struggling to think of what news would cause this - did Venezuela shut down PDVSA?  Iran decide to stop pumping? Tell me the markets are efficient when you look at that swing.  :boxing:
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Algos are definately adding to the volatility.  We may see a short squeeze this week if this rally picks up steam.  Honestly though, it wouldn't be shocking to see it finish negative today as there has been so much selling at the close lately.  Crazy.

 
sold off the rest of my CBLLF today on several spikes. nice big tax loss to harvest at the end of the year at least.

 
Sand said:
I'm a firm believer that the markets are anything but efficient - driven by momentum (algos and humans), sentiment, exogenous news, etc.  Markets tend to over and undershoot.  

Maybe just me, but I keep wondering if the algos that run the short term market these days play off of these inflection points.  We've hit some resistance points with accuracy in the last year.  Or just me seeing patterns where there are none.   :tinfoilhat:

-------

BTW, if we thought the markets were wild, HFS have a look at oil.  +8% today.  I'm struggling to think of what news would cause this - did Venezuela shut down PDVSA?  Iran decide to stop pumping? Tell me the markets are efficient when you look at that swing.  :boxing:
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You act as if momentum, sentiment, exogenous news,etc. shouldn't factor into stock prices. I'm not arguing that markets never over and undershoot, however I would argue that you can't really prove it, even after the fact. New information is coming out every second of every day (part of what is driving these fluctuations is the 24/7 news cycle), so just because something may have had a sharp turn doesn't necessarily mean it overshot, it could just be reflecting that new information (including sentiment).

Efficient doesn't mean things don't move a lot, I'm using it more to mean that's generally what things are worth at that point in time. If you think things are anything but efficient, I assume you're posting from your own private island somewhere?   :P

 
Just to note, the 3 biggest DJIA one day gains by points prior to today:

- 10/13/08

- 10/28/08

- 11/13/08

Invest responsibly friends.

 
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For those enjoying the face ripping rebound today (I sure did) - here is a graph of the spots we've seen 4+% rebounds like this.   Bear market behavior.   :wall:   Not a good data point.

Back to TLHing, raising capital, and investing through Powerball.

 
My wife throught it would be cute to buy me disney stock for xmas as a star wars nerd. She went through Broadridge. Wtf is that?  I still never have invested in the market, but would like to if I ever had the time for proper research. 

 
Sand said:
For those enjoying the face ripping rebound today (I sure did) - here is a graph of the spots we've seen 4+% rebounds like this.   Bear market behavior.   :wall:   Not a good data point.

Back to TLHing, raising capital, and investing through Powerball.
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Yeah it was good in the fact that it's better I did my 2018 contributions two days ago as opposed to today but didn't exactly reassure me in this market overall.

 
lod001 said:
Lets see if this happens: This tops out at around 2470-2520, drops to 2250-2350 in early January and then a powerful multi month rally taking us back up to at least 2700.
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Thar she blows. Topped at 2467, just under lower resistance band.  This Elliott Wave stuff is amazing.

 
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stbugs said:
Down 4% now. It’s the automatic trading. There’s a reason why these bearish charts look similar. The programs are literally setup to do each move. Silly. 
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Look at the #1 risk on the chart here.  Not counting the HFTs (all they do is front run and tax the retail traders/pensions/funds - bloody leeches), these algos seem to have a similar bent to them and exhibit herd behavior.  There is a good WSJ article linked in that one, but behind the pay wall (drat).

 
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Sears/Kmart starts final liquidation if last minute bid by Sears CEO, Eddie Lambert, of $4.6 billion thru his hedge fund ESL is not received by 3:00 pm ET this Friday. SHLDQ closed at .1739 today, up .01.

 
RSI is at 42,, I saw it at 27.5 when buyers stepped in. Technically they consider 70 overbought. 

You can use TA as you see fit, but once the RSI rises another 10 points or so, I think the technical traders step out of the way. They step in when they see oversold, which by rule is around 30.

At a bare minimum, I’d think they’ll want to test that bottom again, so if you’re a buyer, I’d recommend patience. 

I think the top is in on this cycle, so I’m not a buyer as of yet, as I see a clear ceiling in place, but that’s just me.

I remember selling AMZN at 1500 and then thinking I was an idiot. Glad I sidestepped this volatility. They released to the press this was a record holiday season... WELL no ####!!! I’d hope it was for a growth retailer trading at a P/E of like 100. That doesn’t really say much when you dive in. Company would’ve been better off not showing profits and continuing to invest in growth, then we couldn’t peg a valuation to them.

 
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