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Did we hit the mark in all 3 to qualify as a “bear” market yet or Dow stopped just short? Does this count  as a bear market yet?

 
S&P is getting close to a probable resistance area just shy of 2600.  Should be interesting to see what happens over the next few days.

 
GoBirds said:
Did we hit the mark in all 3 to qualify as a “bear” market yet or Dow stopped just short? Does this count  as a bear market yet?
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I believe Dow and S&P 500 stopped just short and Nasdaq went down over 20%.  This is just another correction in the bull market.

 
I’ve seen lots of bad news people are tweeting about this morning but futures are green. Almost like no one cares. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I really want to start writing opinion pieces. 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-its-time-to-hear-the-ugly-truth-2019-01-05?mod=MW_home_top_stories

Article is phenomenal.
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The flaw in this type of thinking is that we need rapid expansions and contractions in liquidity to be healthy.  This points us to a long term baseline of growth.  The fact that there is noise created by liquidity bubbles is tradeable if you have the knowledge without hindsight.   

 
Think the market is starting to price in a resolution with China. 

If there aren't positive developments in the next 2 weeks outside of things are going great in our negotiations, think we could see a rug pull. 

 
Sand said:
Counterpoint.  
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I don't really consider this a counterpoint. 

Regardless, when his opening line is labor isn't a lagging indicator, I immediately question everything he will say afterwards. 

If unemployment has gone up, that means the economy has been doing poorly. 

Flip side, when hiring has risen, those head counts weren't approved when they show up in the reports, they were approved months ago.

Not sure how someone can say labor isn't a lagging indicator. 

ETA:

Won't refute the strength the labor market is showing, it is a very strong jobs market right now. 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
I don't really consider this a counterpoint. 

Regardless, when his opening line is labor isn't a lagging indicator, I immediately question everything he will say afterwards. 

If unemployment has gone up, that means the economy has been doing poorly. 

Flip side, when hiring has risen, those head counts weren't approved when they show up in the reports, they were approved months ago.

Not sure how someone can say labor isn't a lagging indicator. 

ETA:

Won't refute the strength the labor market is showing, it is a very strong jobs market right now. 
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I was in a hurry.  Just wanted to post an interesting article.

Or maybe I was just being a ####.   :P

 
fantasycurse42 said:
If you think this cycle is a bump in the road, buy 4 more today and 4 more in like 6 months (or 2 a quarter for the next year).

I really can’t make the judgement, idk. I sold AAPL for like $177 last Jan and haven’t looked back. My fear for being a long term holder here has always been the displacement/disruption of the one product. Technology moves fast, but I have no idea when that’ll actually happen.
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Just put an order in for some more AAPL. Only had 8 shares @193 but the order is for 16 more which will bring my average down to ~$166ish. I better be happy with that because that is the choice I made. Other than that, the money would have gone in Vanguard funds. This is in my 2018 contribution so if money is okay, could always add more in before April.

 
I'm killing it the last few weeks!  Something is gravely out of balance in the universe.  My moves are usually not well timed but I caught the knife rebalancing at Dec 24 close.

Yesterday bought 175 CGC @ 28.52 midmorning.  It's near $35 in after hours just now.  Wife wanted me to open a position and they looked like a fun ride so I said sure.  Now I want to sell and move on, but she thinks she's hit the jackpot and is a stock genius.  I'm fine with letting the slide happen.  Good lesson for her.

 
Don't Noonan said:
I hope you are heavily invested in shorting the market for this huge rug pull we are about to witness.
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Not yet but I am holding a few sqqq. I’ll be in heavy when the balloon really pops. 

 
Reading Money Mags top ETF and Mutual Funds and it mentions that it separated ETF and MF last year as “most investors use one format or the other”. Is this true? I have a mix but have to admit I don’t know as much as I should about the difference between the options besides the basics.....are there critical differences and which do you guys prefer? 

 
GoBirds said:
Reading Money Mags top ETF and Mutual Funds and it mentions that it separated ETF and MF last year as “most investors use one format or the other”. Is this true? I have a mix but have to admit I don’t know as much as I should about the difference between the options besides the basics.....are there critical differences and which do you guys prefer? 
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Whatever has the lowest fees, mainly.   

 
proteus126 said:
I'm killing it the last few weeks!  Something is gravely out of balance in the universe.  My moves are usually not well timed but I caught the knife rebalancing at Dec 24 close.

Yesterday bought 175 CGC @ 28.52 midmorning.  It's near $35 in after hours just now.  Wife wanted me to open a position and they looked like a fun ride so I said sure.  Now I want to sell and move on, but she thinks she's hit the jackpot and is a stock genius.  I'm fine with letting the slide happen.  Good lesson for her.
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Good for you and her. You can put in a stop loss order to lock in gains. You don’t even need to tell the wife.

 
Shares of Canopy Growth Corporation (NYSE:CGC) jumped 12.9% higher as of 3:12 p.m. EST on Wednesday. The Canadian marijuana stock received a boost from Piper Jaffray initiating coverage with a one-year price target of $40, a 33% premium over Canopy's closing price on Tuesday.

Analysts' initiation of coverage and one-year price targets should be taken with a grain of salt. However, the underlying reasons for Piper Jaffray's optimism about Canopy Growth deserve consideration.

Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Lavery wrote to clients that "the long-term growth opportunities are significant" for the cannabis industry. He estimated that the current addressable market, including Canada, Europe, and the U.S., could be up to $50 billion. Over the longer term, Lavery wrote that the global cannabis market could be between $250 billion and $500 billion.

Lavery suggested that marijuana legalization could become a hot topic in the 2020 U.S. presidential election if changes to current federal laws don't happen before then. Because legalization of marijuana is popular in the U.S., he speculated that both Democrats and Republicans could support legalization efforts.

Assuming this optimistic perspective is on target, Canopy Growth would likely be a big winner. The company ranks as the largest marijuana producer by market cap. It also has plenty of cash to expand internationally, thanks to its partnership with alcoholic beverage maker Constellation Brands.

While the future could be exciting for Canopy Growth, there's a lot of work to be done. The company plans to boost its supply of cannabis to help meet tremendous demand in the Canadian recreational marijuana market. It also eagerly awaits the finalization of Canada's regulations for cannabis edibles and concentrates. Canopy and Constellation have announced plans to launch a lineup of cannabis-infused beverages.

Canopy also continues to be active on the global front. Perhaps the biggest opportunity stems from U.S. legalization of hemp, which by definition is cannabis that contains very low levels of the psychoactive compound THC. Although there isn't a pathway right now for hemp grown in Canada to be used in hemp-based cannabidiol (CBD) products, Canopy still sees a tremendous opportunity to expand into the U.S.

It's likely that Canopy Growth stock could be volatile over the coming months. But the optimism expressed by Piper Jaffray appears to be warranted.

Spliff Link

 
On another note, think we’re getting set up for a nice short.

S&P got real close to the target I mentioned two weeks ago, 2600, and quickly. It might tag it and overextend a little, but I’m cautious on that now.

If the market is reading between the lines, which I never know if it is, something is pretty obvious on the release from the recent round of trade talks; China will buy the stuff they need, like soybeans, oil, etc.. They aren’t budging on the important stuff like technology transfers, cyber theft, etc..

Trump is being played, and the clock is closing in on zero - he’s either going to take it in the face, or tank the market. Those choices are bad & worse, which way he’ll go, I really am not sure.

 
Don't Noonan said:
I am assuming you are referring to the possible tax revenue 
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Check out the big brain on Brad (Sorry, saw Pulp Fiction the other day and have been dying to drop that in somewhere)!

Yes, I am referring to the gargantuan deficits that are going to be piling up. We need the revenue, and it’s the lowest hanging fruit out there.

 
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Canadian dollar is worth about 1/4 to 1/3 less than the American dollar.  Can anyone explain why the disparity?  5-10 years ago they were on par.  i'm thinking of taking a position in a few major banks in Canada-Bank of Nova Scotia for one.  Also would owning bank stock appreciate with a rising Canadian dollar?

Thanks dudes-really appreciate the info here as I'm not a savvy investor.

 
Epic Problem said:
Ala Canopy/Constellation Cronos/Altria, its just a matter of time before there will be some big money thrown behind a few of the other companies

I'm on Aurora and Aphira right now
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Or just play the sector via ETF MJ.  Not a pure play, but better than nothing.  About the only weed ETF out there that trades on the NYSE.  The top holding (10%) is CGC.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Marijuana will 100% be legal, I don’t even think it’ll matter which side holds the power, anyone care to guess why?
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In my neck of the woods the day I see 6 ft. of snow on the ground is the day MJ is legal.

Not that it matters for me as I'll never have the freedom to partake.

 
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