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Still holding, yes, looks like a bad trade though.  News cycle for them got worse yesterday. Going to get stopped out today, but that was my plan and I’m sticking with it.

See downside to $250, if it gets around there, think that’ll make for a better trade, but wtf do I know about this stock, nobody has misread this ticker as bad as me, prob a stupid move trading it.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/24/commerce-secretary-wilbur-ross-the-us-is-miles-and-miles-from-a-trade-deal-with-china.html

Oh and, who would’ve thought we weren’t close when the market starting irrationally pricing in a resolution?

Here comes the pain, I’m sure Trump will jawbone this, but China isn’t bending on IP, pretty obvious to anyone who doesn’t work at a financial institution in hopes of improving their performance.
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can you translate this?

 
culdeus said:
If I had 10 racks and brass balls I would be going big on tvix
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I was out at Home Depot, West Elm, Best Buy, & IKEA :bag:  today. Consumers are out in full force, mind boggling to me. It was the first time I felt much more bullish in months. Does this cycle have another few years before it collapse on a mountain of unsustainable debt? Could be.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I was out at Home Depot, West Elm, Best Buy, & IKEA :bag:  today. Consumers are out in full force, mind boggling to me. It was the first time I felt much more bullish in months. Does this cycle have another few years before it collapse on a mountain of unsustainable debt? Could be.
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I'm cautious but I'd imagine people are "spending" right now because taxes are coming up soon and most people rely on a huge refund. Taxes may be a bit different this year for some and those some will be wondering why they didn't get as much back.Then, a little panic.

 
Mario Kart said:
I'm cautious but I'd imagine people are "spending" right now because taxes are coming up soon and most people rely on a huge refund. Taxes may be a bit different this year for some and those some will be wondering why they didn't get as much back.Then, a little panic.
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It really won't be.  I've put in my W2 and it's for all intents the same as last year.  The california/NY states with higher deductions from property taxes might be taking it in the ### though.

 
How bad can Apple be? You’ve got to imagine Q4 was disappointing, but we won’t know the iPhone sales on their reporting.

Is it all baked in? Think the surprise would be to the upside here, could rip if there is stronger than expected guidance or Q4 wasn’t a disaster. 

 
I personally was looking forward to doing my taxes this year for the first time in about a decade.  As my eldest two children have become young adults I've lost those credits, my home is just about paid off so i've lost interest deduction, last year I was just above the standard deduction threshold and itemized and owed about $7,500 - so I was super stoked that the standard deduction was doubled.  I plugged in my income this year and looks like i'm gonna owe about oh, $7,200 this year and for the 8th year in a row will owe a penalty for underwithholding :thumbup: :wall:

As far as earnings week goes, I think it will be a mixed bag as usual.  I think the bigger moves will be based on forward guidance, not earnings as I'm sure AAPL and AMZN will report strong earnings but I think they will both lend lower guidance going forward which may inflict a good deal of pain.  Fortunately AAPL has already mitigated this a bit by already talking about a slowdown so if they over deliver results that may be a boon.  I'm looking forward to PFE personally and hoping for a massive result 🙏

 
NVDA getting crushed this a.m., CAT bad as well. Awful start to a big earnings week, seems like China might be worse/having a bigger impact than what's been priced in.

 
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guru_007 said:
I personally was looking forward to doing my taxes this year for the first time in about a decade.  As my eldest two children have become young adults I've lost those credits, my home is just about paid off so i've lost interest deduction, last year I was just above the standard deduction threshold and itemized and owed about $7,500 - so I was super stoked that the standard deduction was doubled.  I plugged in my income this year and looks like i'm gonna owe about oh, $7,200 this year and for the 8th year in a row will owe a penalty for underwithholding :thumbup: :wall:

As far as earnings week goes, I think it will be a mixed bag as usual.  I think the bigger moves will be based on forward guidance, not earnings as I'm sure AAPL and AMZN will report strong earnings but I think they will both lend lower guidance going forward which may inflict a good deal of pain.  Fortunately AAPL has already mitigated this a bit by already talking about a slowdown so if they over deliver results that may be a boon.  I'm looking forward to PFE personally and hoping for a massive result 🙏
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make an estimated 4q tax payment. TODAY.  They extended the deadline to end of Jan due to shutdown.

This could get you out of the penalty, or at least some.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I was out at Home Depot, West Elm, Best Buy, & IKEA :bag:  today. Consumers are out in full force, mind boggling to me. It was the first time I felt much more bullish in months. Does this cycle have another few years before it collapse on a mountain of unsustainable debt? Could be.
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If you are a chartist, S&P 500 is stuck in the 2,600 range where the Bulls and Bears both are making their cases in the media. A definite move up and we could see another run through the spring/summer before ROOST'ing. A break down and it's lookout below.

Anecdotally, the housing market is picking back up here in the new year. I could see one last hurrah for the next 6~9 some odd months before the economy finally turns decidedly negative.

 
So if Deutche Bank comes under investigation from Mueller and looks bad (or worse is implicated in crimes), then it stands to reason the stock will suffer, right?

 
Welp, I was pissed on Friday that I sold all my SQ at 73.42 on Thursday since it got up to almost 78. I was OK that I was back to 1% up overall on everything compared to the market since the Fall (down 7-8%). Now that SQ is getting pummeled today and is at 68, I’m damn glad I sold. Outside of 401ks, I’m pretty much all cash. Might not be smart but I’m looking for a better entry point.

 
stbugs said:
Welp, I was pissed on Friday that I sold all my SQ at 73.42 on Thursday since it got up to almost 78. I was OK that I was back to 1% up overall on everything compared to the market since the Fall (down 7-8%). Now that SQ is getting pummeled today and is at 68, I’m damn glad I sold. Outside of 401ks, I’m pretty much all cash. Might not be smart but I’m looking for a better entry point.
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Why would you leave your 401k invested and liquidate outside portfolio?  I've always taken the approach of AA changes are easily accomplished in 401k world without regard to tax stuff.

 
culdeus said:
Why would you leave your 401k invested and liquidate outside portfolio?  I've always taken the approach of AA changes are easily accomplished in 401k world without regard to tax stuff.
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My wife and my 401ks are 1-2 years old and still DCAing if you will. The large chunk of SQ I sold was in my biggest account (IRA w/rollovers) so no tax ramifications. Since we will put in this year almost what we have in the current 401ks and I can’t buy individual stocks, I’m leaving those invested. They are mainly in the retirement year funds. I’d be a lot more conscious of taxes if it was my cash accounts, but those are much smaller than all the retirement ones. The difference between short term and long term capital gains is large for us. 

 
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AAPL numbers/guidance meh. Not terrible, prob enough to keep the stock afloat, but I don’t see huge upside from here in the immediate future.

 
Sand said:
:shrug:

Top S10 is rumored to come in at $1900.
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Welp, I’m out. Last one I bought was an 8 and an 8 plus due to a BOGO offer where I got the 8 free. If I upgrade, not sure when, I’ll hand those down to my youngest kids who have my oldest’s 6 and my old 6 plus. No way I’d ever come close to buying that new.

 
Nice bump today on BA, AAPL, TMO earnings and now getting boost with Fed not raising rates as expected but changing wording on possible future hikes.

 
One thing he did say that makes me want to pile everything into gold:

When asked about a recession, and rates being at less than 3% and a bloated balance sheet, how would the Fed react. The gist of his response from how I interpreted it is we can print until infinity. 

 
Mixed bag today:

AMD, FB better than expected

AAPL right around where they said they would be, it wasn't good, but they've already been taken to the woodshed

MSFT, TSLA (still holding :bag:  it dropped to $279.31 a week ago, I was getting ready to sell, but it bounced very fast, luckily), T all missed

 
MSFT is pretty crowded trade right now, I'd prob be careful with that one. 

Oh, and T lost 267k DTV Now subscribers. How is that even possible? Isn't that supposed to be a high growth business for them? 

I stand by my they're the next GE call. 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Mixed bag today:

AMD, FB better than expected

AAPL right around where they said they would be, it wasn't good, but they've already been taken to the woodshed

MSFT, TSLA (still holding :bag:  it dropped to $279.31 a week ago, I was getting ready to sell, but it bounced very fast, luckily), T all missed
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T is almost book value. I really don’t like them as a company but I also have a tough time thinking now isn’t a decent time to buy with a >6.5% dividend yield.

 
Iceman03 said:
T is almost book value. I really don’t like them as a company but I also have a tough time thinking now isn’t a decent time to buy with a >6.5% dividend yield.
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My thesis for months is they're going to have to cut their dividend (maybe not for 12-24 months, but I think it will be unfolding at some point in the not too distant future). It's a bold call since they've raised for 34 straight years, but it is hard to justify acquisitions when you're losing subscribers (or not gaining much) across all major lines of business hand over fist. 

T Mobile & VZ added over 1mm wireless subs each, T added 134k. They lost 400k DTV subs (worse than 350k anticipated), and they lost 267k DTV Now subs, catastrophically bad!

How many people said something similar on the fall of GE to what you're saying now? And their dividend right now as of close today is a hair under 7%, FWIW. 

 
And god bless the hearts of those Tesla bulls, I just made a decision and dumped it at $306.50 (profit of $300, confetti) bc I don't think this report will get them to the much needed promised land of $360 in the next month (I'm shocked this report didn't send them tanking, tbh). I mean, you never know with those bulls, but when that debt burden becomes a reality to even the most staunch TSLA bull, I think there could be ugly ramifications to the SP. 

 
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