So, it seems like the TVIX party in here is over. Haven't seen any bets lately.
To revive the nuttiness, I've put some money (very small percentage of my total) into this
strategy - 40% UPRO and 60% TMF. It backtests well. More importantly, I've put a bit of my money into the kids' accounts and plowed it into this. If it flames out, no biggie (and it's my money to blow), but if the moonshot works it may dramatically accelerate the net worth of my children. They have 40+ years of compounding to go. I plan on cycling out of UPRO if recession signals hit. Again, a moonshot, so why not.
Surprised? Their move and the market response was pretty much what I expected. They had to follow the bond market; they really didn't have much choice. I'm very glad they stopped at a quarter. We're still at levels well above the rest of the world and the economy is green. Until that changes I'm not too worried.