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Tomorrow bring a bottle of whiskey to work and take a drink every time someone posts or you hear on CNBC "dead cat bounce"

 
fantasycurse42 said:
We should have clarity on how bad this is within 4-7 days imo.
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I wish I was as optimistic as this.  They just had a doctor on CNBC saying that even at full capacity—that they will go through test kits faster than they can produce them.  She also quoted somebody as saying “the absence of evidence is not the same as evidence of absence”—basically indicating that they fully expect that there are lots of cases here in the States.  With that said—to me the question is—what was the root of the drop this week? Was it the result of a momentum driven market losing momentum due to fear?  Was it just a correction in price because an irrationally priced market finally got a dose of reality?  Was it pricing in the collateral damage that we will surely hit from a large disturbance to supply chains?  Or was this weeks performance a combination of all of these things?  I personally think that it’s the last of these options—but that doesn’t mean I think we are out of the woods in regards to choppiness or volatility. I do think that if the news looks promising in the next 4-7 days—we could see some sort of stabilization or smaller moves.  If the next 4-7 days—the news points to this thing looking bad—-we could easily see another round of pain.  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
I wish I was as optimistic as this.  They just had a doctor on CNBC saying that even at full capacity—that they will go through test kits faster than they can produce them.  She also quoted somebody as saying “the absence of evidence is not the same as evidence of absence”—basically indicating that they fully expect that there are lots of cases here in the States.  With that said—to me the question is—what was the root of the drop this week? Was it the result of a momentum driven market losing momentum due to fear?  Was it just a correction in price because an irrationally priced market finally got a dose of reality?  Was it pricing in the collateral damage that we will surely hit from a large disturbance to supply chains?  Or was this weeks performance a combination of all of these things?  I personally think that it’s the last of these options—but that doesn’t mean I think we are out of the woods in regards to choppiness or volatility. I do think that if the news looks promising in the next 4-7 days—we could see some sort of stabilization or smaller moves.  If the next 4-7 days—the news points to this thing looking bad—-we could easily see another round of pain.  
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For me what changed this week was that it was no longer a China thing where those guys could go medieval and hope to contain it.  Hearing about Italy canceling events, France...major companies in the US not attending conferences in the US with big international attendance.  Sounds like Iran has a big problem.  The world is slowly shutting down. 

 
djmich said:
For me what changed this week was that it was no longer a China thing where those guys could go medieval and hope to contain it.  Hearing about Italy canceling events, France...major companies in the US not attending conferences in the US with big international attendance.  Sounds like Iran has a big problem.  The world is slowly shutting down. 
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Thats certainly a fair point. You could easily see more events and conferences shutting down. It’s very possible that peoples lifestyles will change for a while globally until this thing is fully contained or controlled.  I’m actually glad that you answered—and I invite others to answer—because I don’t think anybody can predict guaranteed unknowns trying to apply metrics or history.   I think the key to dissecting what the next moves might be are to look at things as a big picture and try to evaluate what could happen next. This place is a great think tank with a lot of great minds. The more opinions and the more analysis we have—the better. Thank you for your answer. 

 
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culdeus said:
Tomorrow bring a bottle of whiskey to work and take a drink every time someone posts or you hear on CNBC "dead cat bounce"
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I'm working from home but I only got 200 bottles of whiskey at the house. What do i do AFTER lunch? 

 
So South Korea is by far the most advanced at handling this, it isn’t even close. They’re cases are rising the most bc it looks like they have the best testing, why can’t we do this?

https://abcnews.go.com/International/massive-coronavirus-testing-program-south-korea-underscores-nimble/story?id=69226222

The promising piece about South Korea is the relatively low mortality rate, although it appears this #### is highly contagious too. We can’t trust anything out of China, so they should hopefully provide some good data.

You drive up in your car for 10 minutes in South Korea for testing... Meanwhile, we send samples from New York to Atlanta via airplane over here... I mean wtf?

 
I think recession fear is very real here, like high alert recession coming.

If you believe this is going to spread and will need containment, I don’t see how we’re not in a recession by end of summer, maybe even late Q2. Growth will be zilch, productivity will shrink drastically, unemployment will start rising, & consumer spending will fall heavily. 

If this virus gets under control and fizzles when the weather gets warmer, think we’ll see the Fed drop they’re last 150 basis points and start printing. In this scenario, I’d think you’d want to start buying around Memorial Day. 

 
culdeus said:
UAL off it's low but ended up down for the day.  

Here's a stonk that said, we are rescinding all guidance, good luck guys, and the market bought into it.  

It will take me a long time to digest that.
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When Trump was giving his press conference Wed night, a reporter asked him about the airlines... he basically acknowledged theyre in for some tough times. I had UAL pegged for like a 15% fall today, the action in this stock is utterly confusing to me.

 
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Sneegor said:
Recession very unlikely this year.  Me thinks you are freaking out too much about this virus.
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I'm still inline with this thinking too, and that markets are dropping because of the virus and some corrections.  Not from negative economic/GDP/Job reports.     

 
pecorino said:
My portfolio is down about 3% with hedges, and I’m feeling about as good as I could expect. Kicking myself in retrospect for not buying up stock in a protective mask company (APT going parabolic, so predictable).
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5.5% all-in from peak here.

Worst part for me is I knew today was coming when I watched that press conference last night. ####, I did ####### doomsday shopping afterwards, I just knew it!

I refuse to day trade, it’s such a losing proposition, but today would’ve been my white whale :kicksrock:

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I think recession fear is very real here, like high alert recession coming.

If you believe this is going to spread and will need containment, I don’t see how we’re not in a recession by end of summer, maybe even late Q2. Growth will be zilch, productivity will shrink drastically, unemployment will start rising, & consumer spending will fall heavily. 

If this virus gets under control and fizzles when the weather gets warmer, think we’ll see the Fed drop they’re last 150 basis points and start printing. In this scenario, I’d think you’d want to start buying around Memorial Day. 
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Just saying, my post was an hour ago, this article was printed 30 minutes ago:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/coronavirus-odds-of-a-pandemic-doubled-to-40percent-moodys-analytics-says.html

 
beef said:
I'm still inline with this thinking too, and that markets are dropping because of the virus and some corrections.  Not from negative economic/GDP/Job reports.     
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I’m a bit on the fence on this one.  I think that what the market did this week—just eliminating a ton of net worth in a matter of days is going to have some sort of short to medium term shock risk when it comes to spending habits.  I think the retail sector outside of businesses that sell essentials will have very rocky times ahead—-and the travel sector is going to also get rocked.   For a while—people might stay at home for meals or elect delivery—so you could see softness in the food service sector in regards to employment.   Even if the market were to mount a comeback and erase some losses in the next few weeks—I’m not sure if investors will forget about how fragile the market acted.   I feel like its too early to tell if we’ll fall into a recession or not this year—as we need more time to see how this virus is being handled and how slowly/quickly its spreading.  I certainly wouldn’t count on a recession—but I certainly wouldn’t rule one out either.  

 
Gawain said:
Added 500 shares of GLD today. I’m risk off for the next 30 days.
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I don't do much right, but cut my equity exposure to 15% on the 14th. Down a little more than 1% from peak.

Tempted to get back in with the flash sale, but holding to my initial read of a March 16th re-entry point.

 
Sneegor said:
fantasycurse42 said:
I think recession fear is very real here, like high alert recession coming.

If you believe this is going to spread and will need containment, I don’t see how we’re not in a recession by end of summer, maybe even late Q2. Growth will be zilch, productivity will shrink drastically, unemployment will start rising, & consumer spending will fall heavily. 

If this virus gets under control and fizzles when the weather gets warmer, think we’ll see the Fed drop they’re last 150 basis points and start printing. In this scenario, I’d think you’d want to start buying around Memorial Day. 
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Recession very unlikely this year.  Me thinks you are freaking out too much about this virus.
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Yield curve inverted last spring.  Odds of a recession this spring have been elevated since.  It's inverted again.  BWIH. 

 
Gawain said:
I don't do much right, but cut my equity exposure to 15% on the 14th. Down a little more than 1% from peak.

Tempted to get back in with the flash sale, but holding to my initial read of a March 16th re-entry point.
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You should start throwing in more now, regardless of your price target in this instance.  Distance from your target dictates the percent you move over.  You want to DCA that falling knife instead of just grabbing it randomly based on a date. 

 
We're approaching levels of Ish. Not saying we're at the bottom but near what I would consider technical FAIR value. Understand we've been far out of whack to the upside so sometimes the reversion back can swing harder. I'd wait for at least a short term change of trend to buy...that's me.

 
siffoin said:
Ok.  As I started to think about this - I came to the healthy conclusion that what would be necessary is a Chapter on Siff’s Technical Trading 101.  But who has the time for that and who wants to read my ramblings - No one. So let me begin with a Cliff Notes Version.

  1. Everything I do I’m looking at it from a technical perspective.  Why? Charts don’t lie. People do. So I trust the charts more than I do some analyst. 
  2. I have spent years developing a series of charts and indicators that work for me.  1000’s of hours staring at these charts (likely 10's of 1000's). Because of that, I can easily identify when things seem in or out of order.  I wouldn’t expect anyone else to have the same level of understanding of my charts that I do. Often I look at someone else's charts, I don’t have any clue of their interpretation.  And I realize many people probably feel that same towards my own work. 
  3. My work focuses mostly around TRENDs.  Is $XYZ generally moving up (Bull Trend) or is $XYZ generally moving down (Bear Trend)?  Trends are related to specific Time Frames (TF) too. A TF might be 1 minute (the price movement of $XYZ over a minute = 1 bar print); 1 hour; 1 day; 1 week; 1 month.  I guess you could go out further, but TFs longer than 1 month are of ZERO help to any investor.
  4. The longer the TF the more weight and power it holds.  So a 1 Month TF > 1 Week > 1 Day > 1 Hour > 5 Min > 1 Min.  There can be conflicting trends on the same $XYZ depending on the TF.  IE: The Monthly Trend could be Bullish but the Daily Trend could be Bearish.
  5. Always pay attention to the TF > than the one you are following for your primary investment decision.  What I mean by this is - let’s say $XYZ gives a bear trend (short) signal on an Hourly TF. However, the Daily TF is Bullish.  In this scenario we might expect $XYZ to decline over the next few days (maybe a week or 2), to a support level on the Daily TF.  THAT spot represents a BUY. An aggressive trader might look to profit by shorting $XYZ on the Hourly TF down to the Daily TF Support Level, where he would close the Hourly TF Short position, and go long.  It’s not a game of perfect here. It’s a war that requires patience, skill, attentiveness, and a willingness to get scarred along the way.
  6. Moving Average Lines - represent an average of Price over Time. I use moving average lines as a way to represent Value; Fair Value; and Over Value (That’s a real basic explanation). So 3 Moving Average Lines (MAL).
  7. Price within a TF has a very natural progression.  In simple terms it WANTS to hug around Fair Value. Now in a Bull Trend Price will move up and towards the Over Valued MAL.  That is expected. However when price extends beyond the Over Valued MAL naturally it will want to correct. When it extends far beyond an Over Valued MAL for an extended period of time when the correction comes it is probable to be deeper than a normal correction.  And by correction I’m talking about correcting back to healthy levels of support within the trend. Obviously any correction phase runs the risk of flipping the trend. So imo, the best, healthiest and most profitable moves are when we have a Bull Trend that rises between a Fair Valued and Over Valued MAL - not extending too far above the Over Valued MAL for any length of time and corrective phases are moves back to the Fair Value MAL or just below that.
  8. Whew.  Let’s let that all soak in for a second.
  9. As I explained above.  The Monthly Chart is the One to Rule Them All.  While the Bear Market of 2008-09 bottomed in March 09 - the current Monthly Trend did not confirm  bullish until Dec 2010. However since then - the Bull Trend has remained in tact. Even though there have been corrective periods within that trend. May 2011-Dec 2011; May 2015-Feb 2016; May 2018-Dec 2018 - would all be examples of corrective phases within the current Bull market Trend on a Monthly TF.
  10. Currently, the market is extended far beyond the Over Valued MAL.  Further than it has ever been for the past 30 years. In addition it has hopped above and outside the 10 year Bull Market Channel for the past 3 months (something I’ve never seen).  On top of that there are a variety of cycles that are coming together all suggesting the odds favor a corrective move soonish.
  11. I’m in no way saying if there is a corrective move that it will flip the market to a Bearish Trend.  What I am suggesting is that a corrective move is necessary and healthy in order to maintain the current Bull Trend. And that by recognizing the dangerousness of these current conditions one might better prepare himself for the emotional battle that is potentially on the horizon.  And not only that- profit . Trust me a move down towards $SPY 290ish and lots of people will be ####ting their pants. Corrective moves aren’t fun even when you are on the winning side - at least to me because they bring in the possibility of a LT flip of the market trend (From Bull to Bear).  My life is a hell of a lot easier in a bull trend of extended irrational exuberance. Because I don’t know what the future will bring, I acknowledge I could be wrong. However, my present interpretation of my charts suggests the conditions are ripe for a corrective move sometime in the nearish future, and I’m looking how to protect and preserve my gains without having to panic out of positions if such a move occurs, and have a plan in place if value presents to take advantage of that when most people won’t.
  12. $GYPR is meant as a joke and a heads up.  Basically saying PAY ATTENTION.
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Please refer to number 11.

Edit.  On reflection overnight this is the last post from me regarding the stock market for some time moving forward.  For those of you who considered my take and took action... congratulations.  You are in a position where you can find opportunity when they present.  For those of you in the ####ting your pants position...any information I could offer now would be impossible for me to present and I fear might just confuse.  Rational thought and planning is difficult in heightened emotional states. Finally probably better to be like George Costanza and go out on a high note. I hope we all stay healthy and learn and profit from this moment.  Good luck!

 
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siffoin said:
Please refer to number 11.
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Thats awesome stuff and the timing of your original post is even more impressive.   One question—and I apologize if it had already been asked and answered already.   On number 11–you mentioned that a correction was a healthy requirement to maintain a bullish trend.   My question is this—do you think that the corona virus and the economic uncertainties around it basically forced this correction—or do you think a correction like this was bound to happen at some point soon anyway?  Basically—I guess my hypothetical is this—let’s assume that there was no Coronavirus—what would have been your forecast on the market? Do you think that #11 was destined to happen no matter what—and the collateral damage of this virus could send things further down—or did you basically see a 9-10% correction happening without the need of an outside catalyst? 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Thats awesome stuff and the timing of your original post is even more impressive.   One question—and I apologize if it had already been asked and answered already.   On number 11–you mentioned that a correction was a healthy requirement to maintain a bullish trend.   My question is this—do you think that the corona virus and the economic uncertainties around it basically forced this correction—or do you think a correction like this was bound to happen at some point soon anyway?  Basically—I guess my hypothetical is this—let’s assume that there was no Coronavirus—what would have been your forecast on the market? Do you think that #11 was destined to happen no matter what—and the collateral damage of this virus could send things further down—or did you basically see a 9-10% correction happening without the need of an outside catalyst? 
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It was inevitable.  I posted about it here.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/673466-stock-thread/?do=findComment&comment=22427611

 
rascal said:
Futures down 600 pts... it's going to be a bloody day.
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I’m guessing today is going to be rough, anyone jumping in and if so what?

Someone please remind me what do we need to check the “bear” box, besides 20% isn’t there a required timeframe of trending down?

 
GoBirds said:
I’m guessing today is going to be rough, anyone jumping in and if so what?

Someone please remind me what do we need to check the “bear” box, besides 20% isn’t there a required timeframe of trending down?
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Considering going in 25% today into a mix of small caps, biotech and the NAZ 100. Will wait to see what end of day looks like. If it becomes a bloodbath at end of day, I may not. On the other hand, that could induce the fed to make a meaningless rate cut attempt which could boost the market...temporarily. I believe rate cuts will be totally useless.

 
GoBirds said:
I’m guessing today is going to be rough, anyone jumping in and if so what?

Someone please remind me what do we need to check the “bear” box, besides 20% isn’t there a required timeframe of trending down?
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I’ll be hunting again today. 
CSCO, MO,  XOM (dividend > 7%) , MRK.

I’m keeping my eye on banks.

 
siffoin said:
Please refer to number 11.

Edit.  On reflection overnight this is the last post from me regarding the stock market for some time moving forward.  For those of you who considered my take and took action... congratulations.  You are in a position where you can find opportunity when they present.  For those of you in the ####ting your pants position...any information I could offer now would be impossible for me to present and I fear might just confuse.  Rational thought and planning is difficult in heightened emotional states. Finally probably better to be like George Costanza and go out on a high note. I hope we all stay healthy and learn and profit from this moment.  Good luck!
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Thank you.  I pulled about 60% off the table at the top.  I left 40% because I usually miss time getting back in and end up with too much cash when things recover.  

Actually one of my holdings I didn't sell (AIM) was up 43% yesterday and 70% over the last week.  Still don't know what it is or why I bought it.  It's not enough shares to get excited about.

 
I was thinking about getting into TSLA before it cleared $500.  After that, I felt I missed the boat.  Well, the boat may be coming back.  Still not moving in just yet, but it is now on my watch list again.  And with this drop, it is still close to doubled since the end of December.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
This isn’t a Fed problem, they should save their few remaining bullets. 
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I agree. If they do--it'd be nothing more than symbolic --just an artificial way of instilling confidence.  If one looks down the road long term--there is a very good chance that this incident will cause a lot of companies to take full control of their supply chains and bring their manufacturing back to the US.   Down the road--this incident could cause our economy to become less international and more national.   In that type of environment--lowering the rates and diluting the dollar could actaully be much more harmful down the road. 

 
Wasnt someone here bullish gold miners.  I made a play eod yesterday and looking at it now glad to get out with a 5% loss.

 
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culdeus said:
I mean glass half full says even at these levels we are back tracing to a more realistic CAGR.   
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My glass half full thoughts are that yes, we are back to January 2018 highs, but were not close to 2009 when we dropped back 12 years.  I don't think this will take 4 years to recover from either.  I am kind of thirsty though and my glass has some good bourbon in it...  :oldunsure:  

 
Only down a tiny bit today. One of my buys is not looking good, other is up nice. TTD earnings coming through helps. Still lots of cash to play just not sure when.

Oh, ZM has been wonderful. Actually, I’m up almost a percent today.

 
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D-Day said:
I was thinking about getting into TSLA before it cleared $500.  After that, I felt I missed the boat.  Well, the boat may be coming back.  Still not moving in just yet, but it is now on my watch list again.  And with this drop, it is still close to doubled since the end of December.  
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I’m seeing some stocks getting around levels I was happy to look at months ago. May dabble a bit more.

 
NAZ takes out 200 da MA. Currently sitting at a support level of 8310 from July 2019. Next support level is another 6 % or so down at around 7780. Then 7733, then the 2018 low of 6190. 

Can someone resurrect Mark Haines. https://youtu.be/Kvd6_4tmBRU?t=8

Oh yeah, there is a 8079 support level that goes back to 8/31/2018. That wipes out all of the 2019 gaines. WOW.

 
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stbugs said:
I’m not taking an income tax sized hit on gains and I’m way more long term than you are. If my stocks are still growing like gangbusters and I’ve got a 10-15 year timeframe, I’m not jumping ship and potentially missing a recovery. And by recovery, I’m not talking next week. Not sure how long it will go down but just 401k and matching wise my wife and I should be investing another $40k+ so it’s nice to have some DCAing going on. I sat through the ####ty 2000s, so I’ll have no worries even if this lasts several years again. That just means my cash on the sidelines and my new 401k investing will be buying low for the next cycle. That said if you pick the right stocks they’ll hopefully be beating the market.
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I understand the "Tax hit" ... and I'm willing to take that this year. Won't we all have to pay the taxes on our gains sooner or later?

I'll pay them now ... and save $50k (or more?) in stock losses.

Nothing preventing me from getting back in once this carp blows over in several months.

Not thinking I'll miss the recovery unless I'm struck by the Kung-Fu Flu when it happens.

... and no, I didn't touch my retirement investments either. 

 
Gold getting killed today too. Figure some combination of a search for liquidity and diminished demand for luxury goods.

 
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