Some more rambling thoughts....
Right now I believe we are in a bit of the panic/unknown stage of this event. There are industries that are most definitely going to be affected moreso than others, and I am a bit of a pessimist in that I also believe we are going to get hit with a bit of a recession. But, there are a few bits of hope imho here that the effects will not be too long term. The US economy is very strong. This recent pull back has taken the froth out of the market, so if poor economic figures start tricking in in Q2-Q3, a bit of that hit has already been priced in. Also, I cannot trust any numbers out of China, but the Korean numbers seem to be a lot more in line with what I am expecting and there is quite a bit lower mortality rate than the panic numbers are being flashed. Something like 0.2-0.4% is a lot more in line than the 2% as the worst case scenario. It's still quite significantly higher than your typical flu mortality rate, but you also have to take into account that these seem to afflict the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. Obviously it's terrible for those afflicted, but I just don't see this being a doomsday type event.
The other thing that I did not know is the last pandemic - the Swine Flu - had almost 60 million U.S. cases in a year. 60 million. I am getting older and my memory is not near what it used to be but for the life of me I don't recall near this level of panic in the U.S. I think this is just a huge unknown right now and that strikes fear - plus most people are getting their news from twitter these days which is not the most reliable and certainly home for the paranoid/conspiracy theorists.
I think we get a bit more short term pain in the markets, but a decent recovery towards summer and second half of the year. That said, I'm happy I sold off a bit of my holdings about a month ago, but kicking myself for not selling NHCL last week as I knew, KNEW the cruise industry would be one of the hardest hit with the quarantine on the diamond princess.
Right now I believe we are in a bit of the panic/unknown stage of this event. There are industries that are most definitely going to be affected moreso than others, and I am a bit of a pessimist in that I also believe we are going to get hit with a bit of a recession. But, there are a few bits of hope imho here that the effects will not be too long term. The US economy is very strong. This recent pull back has taken the froth out of the market, so if poor economic figures start tricking in in Q2-Q3, a bit of that hit has already been priced in. Also, I cannot trust any numbers out of China, but the Korean numbers seem to be a lot more in line with what I am expecting and there is quite a bit lower mortality rate than the panic numbers are being flashed. Something like 0.2-0.4% is a lot more in line than the 2% as the worst case scenario. It's still quite significantly higher than your typical flu mortality rate, but you also have to take into account that these seem to afflict the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions. Obviously it's terrible for those afflicted, but I just don't see this being a doomsday type event.
The other thing that I did not know is the last pandemic - the Swine Flu - had almost 60 million U.S. cases in a year. 60 million. I am getting older and my memory is not near what it used to be but for the life of me I don't recall near this level of panic in the U.S. I think this is just a huge unknown right now and that strikes fear - plus most people are getting their news from twitter these days which is not the most reliable and certainly home for the paranoid/conspiracy theorists.
I think we get a bit more short term pain in the markets, but a decent recovery towards summer and second half of the year. That said, I'm happy I sold off a bit of my holdings about a month ago, but kicking myself for not selling NHCL last week as I knew, KNEW the cruise industry would be one of the hardest hit with the quarantine on the diamond princess.