What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Stock Thread (18 Viewers)

Some more rambling thoughts....

Right now I believe we are in a bit of the panic/unknown stage of this event.  There are industries that are most definitely going to be affected moreso than others, and I am a bit of a pessimist in that I also believe we are going to get hit with a bit of a recession.  But, there are a few bits of hope imho here that the effects will not be too long term.  The US economy is very strong.  This recent pull back has taken the froth out of the market, so if poor economic figures start tricking in in Q2-Q3, a bit of that hit has already been priced in.  Also, I cannot trust any numbers out of China, but the Korean numbers seem to be a lot more in line with what I am expecting and there is quite a bit lower mortality rate than the panic numbers are being flashed.  Something like 0.2-0.4% is a lot more in line than the 2% as the worst case scenario.  It's still quite significantly higher than your typical flu mortality rate, but you also have to take into account that these seem to afflict the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.  Obviously it's terrible for those afflicted, but I just don't see this being a doomsday type event.

The other thing that I did not know is the last pandemic - the Swine Flu - had almost 60 million U.S. cases in a year.  60 million.  I am getting older and my memory is not near what it used to be but for the life of me I don't recall near this level of panic in the U.S.  I think this is just a huge unknown right now and that strikes fear - plus most people are getting their news from twitter these days which is not the most reliable and certainly home for the paranoid/conspiracy theorists.

I think we get a bit more short term pain in the markets, but a decent recovery towards summer and second half of the year.  That said, I'm happy I sold off a bit of my holdings about a month ago, but kicking myself for not selling NHCL last week as I knew, KNEW the cruise industry would be one of the hardest hit with the quarantine on the diamond princess.  

 
Mortality rate in Italy is 2%, SK is .6%, Iran is over 3%, and currently the good ol USA is over 2% :shrug:  

I think the .2-.4% you quote is wildly optimistic. 

 
Anyone else looking to go short? The fact that I'm standing on this island alone (not just here, but elsewhere) is giving me even more confidence that I'm right. 

I believe Micron to be a good short target. Maybe BofA, they're rate dependent to begin with. 

Anyone have any list? 

 
Anyone else looking to go short? The fact that I'm standing on this island alone (not just here, but elsewhere) is giving me even more confidence that I'm right. 
Lol I’m just busting balls here but you’ve been the most consistently wrong guy in this thread. Don’t feel that confident. 

 
Lol I’m just busting balls here but you’ve been the most consistently wrong guy in this thread. Don’t feel that confident. 
My largest investment is gold, doing just fine there. SHOP I've owned. Recession call was made 6 months ago, I'm doubling down on that now and placing money on it. 

I've repeated the Ben Graham line 3x in here, won't say it again. Good luck to all. 

 
CNN guy is saying that the South Korea mortality rate is more indicative of what we would see in the states.
Apparnetly 60% of the folks infected in SK were part of that cult/religious community.

Would be curious what their age breakdown is.  If it skews mostly younger (very few folks over 60), then it's indicative primarily of mortality rates in that age range with that distribution.

 
My largest investment is gold, doing just fine there. SHOP I've owned. Recession call was made 6 months ago, I'm doubling down on that now and placing money on it. 

I've repeated the Ben Graham line 3x in here, won't say it again. Good luck to all. 
Your recession call had absolutely nothing to do with the reason we may have a recession. 

 
As I've said, I follow Adam Mancini. He does the work for me that I can't possibly do. He said the target is 3130 on ES_F which is the S&P futures. To get there, it needs to top 3020 and hold. It's sitting right there. H'es saying a short squeeze will take this to 3130. If ES_F can't hold 3020, then it  which would form a potential bear flag.

 
MU, SHAK so far on my hit list. 

Computer memory and flash with severe Asia exposure and a QSR with a P/E over 90 and slowing growth. 

Need to add more and spread my short list. I need some sort of bounce on the travel stocks to initiate a short. 

ETA:

Short TSLA at 721

Short MU at 54.15

Short SHAKL at 56.80

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Gotta love the doomsday prepper mentality. "I've been calling for a recession for years and even though the market climbed 60% over that time, it recently went down 10% so I'm clearly correct!"

Good luck hoarding shiny rocks.

 
Gotta love the doomsday prepper mentality. "I've been calling for a recession for years and even though the market climbed 60% over that time, it recently went down 10% so I'm clearly correct!"

Good luck hoarding shiny rocks.
Here’s a 5 year chart of gold for you.  You think that looks terrible?  Keep in mind that most people that have gold (myself included) are also invested in the markets—so it’s not like we missed out on the run that has done too. 

https://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au1825nyb.html

 
As I've said, I follow Adam Mancini. He does the work for me that I can't possibly do. He said the target is 3130 on ES_F which is the S&P futures. To get there, it needs to top 3020 and hold. It's sitting right there. H'es saying a short squeeze will take this to 3130. If ES_F can't hold 3020, then it  which would form a potential bear flag.
And it just sits hovering around 3020.

 
So I've got starter short positions in MU, SHAK, EXPE, & TSLA (this one will stay small as somehow I can see Tesla fanboys rationalizing buying an electric $50k sedan during a recession... I just want a taste and won't get run over, even if this goes parabolic).

Hoping the buying keeps going for a few more days.

 
So I've got starter short positions in MU, SHAK, EXPE, & TSLA (this one will stay small as somehow I can see Tesla fanboys rationalizing buying an electric $50k sedan during a recession... I just want a taste and won't get run over, even if this goes parabolic).

Hoping the buying keeps going for a few more days.
Giving you guys the reverse FC42 hedge here, everyone go long the aforementioned tickers.

 
why be coy about it?
@Whyatt seems genuine and has said he's employed by big pharma but as far as I can tell, he's not a scientist.  He's alluding to the fact that Merck announced today that Keytruda met some end points and he's implying that it could be bad for CYDY's cancer aspirations.  Keytruda is projected to generate $22BB in 2022 and deals with only cancers that express PD-L1.  Our scientists are well aware of the drug and its intended uses and they believe Lironlimab and Keytruda are complementary.

I will say that if new patients continue to respond similarly to those detailed in today's PR, the FDA won't be able to ignore the data.

 
What a crazy long term chart.  It has basically not budged in 5 years.  Wtf?
Have to imagine it breaks soon, and when it does, it does so hard!

I was looking at the cruise lines, airlines, etc looking for my travel short... They had an awful quarter in Q3, stock was already facing some pressure, was gonna bounce back after a decent Q4, but then this.

IDK, I'm spreading shorts all around, everyone else can keep buying, that would actually be great for me if it can keep up for a few more days, or at least until we have real testing measures in place.

My 401k I just flipped 50% to cash, 50% to bonds. This is the event, imo.

 
From Market Intelligence Briefing I get at work: 
 

Potential Impact of COVID-19 on U.S. Construction Starts

By Richard Branch, Chief Economist, Dodge Data & Analytics

BEDFORD, MA – FEBRUARY 24, 2020 – The mounting number of cases of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) has roiled stock markets around the world and added concern that global economies will be materially impacted. Estimates from Moody’s Analytics suggest that first-quarter U.S. GDP growth could be reduced by nearly 0.45 percentage points as a result of the outbreak with tourism and travel taking the largest hit among U.S. industries. If the outbreak is contained quickly, U.S. economic growth should rebound in the second quarter.

The most notable impact comes from supply chains for goods from China. These supply chains have been crimped as Chinese workers remain at home, causing production to fall substantially. Here in the U.S., General Motors unions have warned that U.S. production could slow as parts dry up. Apple Inc. announced that it will not meet its first-quarter revenue projections as their China plants are shuttered. Even N.H.L hockey players have noted the shrinking supply of hockey sticks. Consumer sentiment is also taking a hit. Should containment of the virus be elusive, we could see consumer spending and business investment sour — which could cause a further drag on U.S. economic growth.

The construction industry is also not immune to challenges presented by the outbreak. A rough calculation suggests that nearly 30% of products typically used in U.S. building construction are imports from China, making the country the largest single supplier to the U.S. If the virus is not quickly contained and quarantines remain intact, supplies will continue to tighten causing building costs to continue to escalate, and potentially causing projects to be delayed or cancelled outright. The exact extent to which this happens will depend on the ability of U.S. builders to substitute products from China to domestic or other international suppliers. Note though, that many Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam that also export building products to the U.S. rely heavily on raw materials from China.

At present, our outlook continues to expect a modest decline in construction starts in 2020. The current outbreak is one of many issues facing the U.S. economy this year that will lead to a slowdown in overall economic growth and push starts lower. The issue, however, remains in flux. Dodge will continue to assess the impact of the COVID-19 virus in the coming months.

 
Oh yes, this is the indiscriminate buying I was looking for :thumbup:
Interesting that the russell 2k got left behind. Short covering rally? I mean, they made $105 BILLION shorting last week. You don't have to cover small caps. You are not shorting those like the big caps.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stock-short-sellers-notch-191229817.html

If I would have bought that 25% on Friday at close, I would have let it ride for tomorrow. dammit. Target is appearently 3130

oops, Robinhood. Failed miserably.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/robinhood-says-its-experiencing-a-system-wide-outage-as-markets-rebound-in-heavy-volume-monday.html

The technical problems took up most of the trading day and were not fixed before the close. Robinhood clients missed out on the biggest one-day point gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in history. OUCH!!!!!

 
Dipped a 10% toe back in @ SPY 291 on 2/28. 

Thinking about hoping to sell @310ish for Open to lock that gain in.... Then ride it back down.

With the massive supply chain disruptions and incoming catastrophic drop in consumer spending, we CAN'T be looking at an upward trend line from here, right? 

 
Sold into the teeth of this rally. Pandemic/Bernie, what are we rallying on :lmao:  
I went all cash earlier. Put 25% back in Friday. Will continue to put 25% back in each 10% we drop. With the impending recession, the virus and the upcoming election, I think we see a bear market so that’s how I’m gonna play it. 

 
Sold into the teeth of this rally. Pandemic/Bernie, what are we rallying on :lmao:  
Probably the fed implying that rates will be lowered.    Biden coming back in a sense probably didn’t hurt much either. With that said—this virus thing is at least going to be a real obstacle for the near term, the supply chains will take some time to get back to where they were.  If the virus thing gets really bad—you could see a shockwave from the demand side of things.   With that all said—each and every day will be a ride as there are soo many moving parts.   The water will be choppy both in good and bad ways for a while to come imo. 

 
I went all cash earlier. Put 25% back in Friday. Will continue to put 25% back in each 10% we drop. With the impending recession, the virus and the upcoming election, I think we see a bear market so that’s how I’m gonna play it. 
I just can’t imagine any news to get us positive:

FED CUTS RATES 100 BASIS POINTS, 12,000 new cases confirmed.

If the Fed doesn’t scare bears in this situation, I see one path here.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I just can’t imagine any news to get us positive:

FED CUTS RATES 100 BASIS POINTS, 12,000 new cases confirmed.

If the Fed doesn’t scare in this situation, I see one path here.
That wont happen.  The virus is clearly here—but there is still a large portion of the population that is dismissive about it. It’s a weird phenomenon.  Pence mentioned something like 15k test kits followed by 50k test kits—and for me personally—those numbers are laughably low.    Even at 65k  test kits—thats like an average of 1300 per state.   We won’t know the full extent of how bad this thing is because our system doesnt want us to know.   

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Loved today and I get that the drop was so precipitous that long term things are great buys but don’t see how things are returning to normal so fast and today seems like a mirage. 

In the real world events are getting cancelled, people are getting prepped to hole up if anyone gets sick in their office, people being told to stay home for 2 weeks if they get sick, etc.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top