fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
BC you don't have a previous account. Someone found a football board after the season ended, and wound up in the FFA the same day. Color me skeptical.
This forum hasn't had a new member in prob 3 years, maybe longer.
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Stock Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
This forum hasn't had a new member in prob 3 years, maybe longer.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
You should load up on ZM then.
Also death of the consumer was a good chuckle. Think you are cheering too hard for this.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I want this to go away, who is cheering? I just see this turning into a pandemic.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Too much over the top doomsday stuff comes across as cheering. Sorry but that's how it sounds.
He’s right. You absolutely have been cheering this on and have been negative for a long time. It’s finally working out for you but it’s over the top now.
Gawain
Footballguy
Posits that the Robinhood crash was due to not properly coding in a leap year:
https://i.redd.it/hmcf47ct2ck41.jpg
Still hasn't been fixed.
https://i.redd.it/hmcf47ct2ck41.jpg
Still hasn't been fixed.
culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I’ll post as I feel, put me on ignore if you have a problem with that. Sorry people lost a lot of money, I saw this unfolding and protected myself. I enjoy a thread that has multiple points of view, not an echo chamber, and mine today was as accurate as anyone’s on Earth. I’m in a good mood, I killed it today, I’m sorry people lost money, but don’t direct saltiness at me. When I’m pissy about losing money, I never give anyone #### for it.
Oh, and you’re right I cheer for the market to go down when I’m short. I posted what I saw happening and don’t hide what I’m doing. I don’t cheer for people to die or pandemics (and honestly, I’d love this to go away, get long, and get back to life), but I play the cards as I’m dealt.
I saw the Fed as a panic move today and screamed sell as everyone raced in with two hands, not the slightest bit sorry about that
I said the same thing yesterday at close, I’m selling the pop.
Oh, and you’re right I cheer for the market to go down when I’m short. I posted what I saw happening and don’t hide what I’m doing. I don’t cheer for people to die or pandemics (and honestly, I’d love this to go away, get long, and get back to life), but I play the cards as I’m dealt.
I saw the Fed as a panic move today and screamed sell as everyone raced in with two hands, not the slightest bit sorry about that
I said the same thing yesterday at close, I’m selling the pop.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I personally love this thread.
Capella
Footballguy
Lol dude you’ve been crying about the market tanking for 2 years. So either you lost your ### going short over that period and made some today or you’re just BS’ing to sound good on a message board.I’ll post as I feel, put me on ignore if you have a problem with that. Sorry people lost a lot of money, I saw this unfolding and protected myself. I enjoy a thread that has multiple points of view, not an echo chamber, and mine today was as accurate as anyone’s on Earth. I’m in a good mood, I killed it today, I’m sorry people lost money, but don’t direct saltiness at me. When I’m pissy about losing money, I never give anyone #### for it.
Oh, and you’re right I cheer for the market to go down when I’m short. I posted what I saw happening and don’t hide what I’m doing. I don’t cheer for people to die or pandemics (and honestly, I’d love this to go away, get long, and get back to life), but I play the cards as I’m dealt.
I saw the Fed as a panic move today and screamed sell as everyone raced in with two hands, not the slightest bit sorry about that
I said the same thing yesterday at close, I’m selling the pop.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I’ve been pitching one main play for that time. Take a look at the chart, I don’t even have to say what it is, because we all know what it is. All in anticipation of no interest and a world of QE. I’ve done quite well on it (along with some other things), day trading is where I always #### up (I’ve been very open about that along with TVIX and the like when I know someone is about to hit the same slippery slope). Today I had a ton of risk out there and it was binary, it was either going to be a massive win or loss, I’m happy that I nailed it!
I also moved 20% of my 401k to cash when the market rebounded past 25k last year, it’s all here somewhere, I noted it. That was up until last week my biggest ####up in quite some time, now I feel good about it. I also noted yesterday I’m half cash half bonds as of right now in my 401k.
and if you think it’s all BS, you can feel that way, go ahead. I spend my time trying to impress the 12 regular strangers that post in this thread, bc that’s the important stuff in my life.
Take_The_Shot
Footballguy
The Arnold Classic in Columbus just got cancelled to fans. For those who don't think this is going to have a huge economic impact all across the States are fooling themselves. NHL and NCAA are considering the same, which probably means the NBA and MLB are looking into it as well. Local economies are going to be crushed.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I’ve felt we’re late cycle for a little while, which means I’ve been nimble. I agree on market timing, but when a bull market is nearing its end, I have to react accordingly. If I am right about this market nearing its end, I’ll own a lot more shares of things I want than if I buy them at the highs.
Should I say the same Ben Graham line again? Just FYI, the guy was Buffet’s mentor and a lot of the #### he wrote still rings true today.
shadrap
Footballguy
I like your opinion on stocks but who really cares about whether a poster was here before or not. he/she is here now & posting some opinions. guess we'll find out whether informative or not.
IMO
He told me he hated Shopify at 100 back in 2018. Yes, it’s down a chunk from the top but it’s at 480 even with the haircut. It just gets annoying with post after post after post. We got it, your short and made some money. We weren’t in here posting 20 times an hour as AMZN doubled and tripled. That would have been annoying to people who didn’t own it.
The funny thing is I still have $100k in cash in a couple accounts that I don’t mind seeing this downturn for a bit and you can post what you want but dear lord we see the stock tickers we don’t need a blow by blow when finally right.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Haven’t seen many opinions, mainly criticism... OMG, hit me as I wrote it, welcome back LD, and welcome to ignore.
Really only like to know who it is so I can figure out how credible of an opinion.
This one clearly has none.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
If you find that annoying, I can only imagine you’re pretty irritated about everything irl.
When someone makes money, I’m usually happy for them, but that’s me, and we’ve never really seen eye to eye. & Yet again with the Shopify, this is the 4th time you’ve brought it up in maybe 3 weeks? I’ve owned the bad call over and over, do you want me to buy you a cookie?
I’ll be honest man, the past few days it has seemed like impressing everyone has been your goal. Just saying what it appears to be.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Does the market only stabilize, and recover??, if/when the Corona Virus impact is more understood? I believe there are some reports that China is now beginning to see a decrease in new cases, but, obviously, other countries, including our's, is just beginning to see the impact of new cases. If China's cases are beginning to decrease, that will be at least 3 months of impact and lots of deaths to come. Not good. As far as the economy is concerned, globally, how doesn't this spiral into a world-wide recession? In other words, what is most likely (and why) - markets stabilizing and/or recovering by summer OR this becoming the beginning of a global recession?
I just asked this question (posted right before you) so definitely would love to hear substance and less bickering.
Listen, great job timing the market. It worked for you, but a lot of people did lose money and some are probably upset about it. You’re just coming off as an ###. My bad on the Shopify thing, won’t bring it up again but it’s shows that you clearly thought things were overvalued a long time ago. It was to illustrate that you’re sort of cheering the $550 to $480 drop but ignoring the run from $120 to $550.
I assume you’ve gambled before. You are just like the craps bettor that always bets the don't pass line while the rest of the table is having fun trying to win. You wonder why you annoy people and why people don’t celebrate you winning and giving everyone at the table a blow by blow about how Bob has been crapping out a lot because he hurt his hand.
Also, you won’t irritate me because it’s a message board. I’m just posting freely and making observations. To me it’s seems like you’re gloating a wee bit too much and people are noticing it. I’ll bid you adieu.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
The difference between the guy playing "don't pass" at the craps table is that they usually have sufficient tact to not cheer out loud. Not too mention not getting their pompoms out for a pandemic.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
That being said cheer your wins all you want just don't try to sugarcoat it as something else. You can't wait for business to be impacted by this virus. Practically salivating at the mouth, which in this environment is dangerous. Wear a mask while you cheer.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
1) it was $150, regardless, bad call, and owned over and over and over again (and over and over, this should catch us up). I even gave my explanation for where I ####ed up on SHOP the first time (I believe that was in like the 49ers thread where you somehow called me out on it).
2) Gambling in a casino sucks, that’s not me. Losing $ makes me angrier than winning makes me happy. I’d rather party in Vegas than lose money in a casino.
3) I had thoroughly analyzed the situation prior to today. I saw the spike, I knew it was panic from the Fed. I made the call as I sold. It was binary and I was going to be emotional out a bunch or up a bunch. It was my first aggressive day trade in quite some time (I‘ve stated I’m a net loser on the day trades, never hidden that. I think day trading is basically impossible tbh)... I made this play today bc I was that confident. I was confident all week last week, but refused to pull the trigger, would’ve made many more buckets had I. I basically hit the top too, it was one of the smoothest trades I’ve ever made, way ahead right out of the gate. I’m shocked nobody else had thought about this Fed reaction, tbh. In all seriousness, think about what the Fed panic means and it’s implications, that would prob be the smart thing to do, I sure am.
Furthermore, hardly mentioned any of the swings I laid out at close yesterday, MU fell 5% today.
I also laid out two other shorts as well. Expedia, which I think is brilliant. My biggest fear about travel stocks and airlines is government bailout money, Expedia avoids that dilemma. They’re teetering on support extending back 5 years, when they tip, it’ll be hard. And Shak, highly overvalued restaurant whose growth is slowing (honestly I’d go to CMG, but I’ve visited that well too many times. Nailed it from $550 to $250 many moons back in this very thread, plus I think Shak will lose more). If we do hit a recession, those are home runs. I expect them all to bounce shortly as they’ve already been pounded, but I see more pain ahead and I’m sitting tight.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I’m anything but excited about the disruption my awesome life is about to face. You think I want to disrupt my life? Sit here and post nonsense with people who think like this bc I’m basically bunkered down!
I coach my son’s soccer team, defending ####### champs... Supposed to start this weekend, prob postponed or canceled; great news! Ringside seats to UFC 249 in a month, prob won’t go, even better news. Yea, I’m a pig in #### right now! Gonna be sitting in an 1100 sf apartment with my wife and kids or head out to the burbs and hall up with family. CANT ####### WAIT!!!
Anyone with this thought process is one strange sick weird dude.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I can move to a castle in the burbs, but then I give up my 25 minute door to door commute.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Let's get back to stocks guys and gals. One thing that I like about these boards is that all opinions should be welcome--even dissenting ones--as they provide different points of views. So a couple things shocked me today--and I'd invite as many opinions as possible. I was personally surprised by the rate cut (the last time the fed did an emergency rate cut of 0.50% was during the big finanical crisis)--and moreso--I was surprised by the markets reaction. We know that a rate cut would explain bank stocks dropping---but what was the motivating factor for a rate cut to act as an accelerant for the entire market to drop?
Did the cut put panic into the market? It did seem like an act of desperation for me. When Powell himself said that he was aware that the cut wouldn't really solve any supply chain issues--and that putting confidence back in the market was one of the main considerations---I can't imaging that it put many people at ease. Let's be real here--the root of the supply chain, travel issues are basically a result of a public health problem. Did the market just find it completely laughable that our government and fed thought it could somehow counter a public health issue through cutting rates? Keep in mind--I'm not making any claims here--I'm just trying to think tank what caused todays weird action--and what the play is for the rest of the week. Any and all opinions are welcome.
Did the cut put panic into the market? It did seem like an act of desperation for me. When Powell himself said that he was aware that the cut wouldn't really solve any supply chain issues--and that putting confidence back in the market was one of the main considerations---I can't imaging that it put many people at ease. Let's be real here--the root of the supply chain, travel issues are basically a result of a public health problem. Did the market just find it completely laughable that our government and fed thought it could somehow counter a public health issue through cutting rates? Keep in mind--I'm not making any claims here--I'm just trying to think tank what caused todays weird action--and what the play is for the rest of the week. Any and all opinions are welcome.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
But yes, my point; would you want to be in 1100 SF bunkered down around the clock with your wife and two kids?
I love them all very much, but I need a break, certainly during a stressful situation! Rooting for the virus
There’s a big difference between seeing something play out as you anticipate and wanting that to happen.
For now I have no choice but to play the market as I see it, it’s that simple. I want this #### to end quickly, I’ll get long when I see the end over the horizon, but the situation is bad and how I buy and sell is dictated by the situation.
I love them all very much, but I need a break, certainly during a stressful situation! Rooting for the virus
There’s a big difference between seeing something play out as you anticipate and wanting that to happen.
For now I have no choice but to play the market as I see it, it’s that simple. I want this #### to end quickly, I’ll get long when I see the end over the horizon, but the situation is bad and how I buy and sell is dictated by the situation.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Yes, panic, both by the Fed, then investors. Move wasn’t necessary. Should’ve just held tight and waited until this was behind us. Not a monetary issue, further scares the market.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I'm probably getting into some leveraged ETFs tomorrow...I think we see a big spike in the short term as Biden dominates headlines.
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Rate cut made no sense at all and probably has no real impact, we’ll other than folks who take advantage of it. A vaccine or containment has way more impact than a rate cut.
That said, the world we are in is so much faster now. All the algorithms and analytics. If there’s a true down signal, it happens overnight as we just saw and if there’s a good signal the rally will be a lightning bolt.
Warrior
Footballguy
He likely made about 2% back of what he's foregone over the past decade for being so alarmist and pessimistic. That's the funny part...it's the "I was right!1! Time to celebrate!!" attitude is obnoxious when ignoring all of the times he's been wrong about the imminent stock market crash over the past decade until the broken clock struck 12 this time.
We get it. I'm glad you're doing well by betting on the "Don't pass" line. You mostly missed out on the longest bull run in the history of the market and now it's your time to shine.
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GoBirds
Footballguy
Not sure if I'm brave enough for this but Warren is, anyone else dipping their toe in airlines?
https://www.investors.com/news/warren-buffett-raises-stake-delta-air-lines-stock/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo
https://www.investors.com/news/warren-buffett-raises-stake-delta-air-lines-stock/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I'm not one to take sides here--but the tribalism in these forums needs to stop. Dissenting opinions are just as important as the ones that are in line with the majority. One can easily argue that the longest bull run in history was propped up by obvious financial engineering that put our markets susceptible to one of the biggest weekly collapses that we've also seen in history. I'm not saying that you are both wrong--I'm saying that you are both right--so being snarky to one another is not necessary.
If you want evidence of financial engineering--just look at what the fed did yesterday. We had a market that was ignoring risk for the past couple years that was being carried by momentum, unnecessary rate cuts and policies that allowed companies to buy back stocks to artificially keep their prices high. For the past couple of years--fundamentals and metrics were taking a back seat to these types of things. A global pandemic slowed some momentum--and our markets gave up a long period of gains in the matter of a few days. It was so catastropic--that the fed itself made an emergency action in monetary policy---not to help combat a public health problem--but to admittedly put faith and momentum back in a market that lost it all in a matter of days.
So instead of pounding our chests--and poking fun--the right play should be discussing whats next. Do we think these cuts put momentum and faith back in the markets--or is this just a sugar high that is going to crash back down? How much of this are we attributing to the Biden vs Bernie factor? Let's keep the discussion rolling as opposed to the insults flying.
Right now, I think we are in way uncharted territory and no one has any idea what is next. These swings from day to day are too much to get a hold on. I believe the last time there were swings like this were right after 9/11 and that took nearly a month to shake out. If you're trading now, you're really just gambling (and although I do love to gamble, I am only making very very small bets relatively speaking). I'm not doing any panic selling, nor any panic buy. I did buy a few shares of DIS and HD last Friday, so I could write a few covered calls against these going forward and I do like their longer term perspectives.
That said, I see a ton of headwinds. IF China is only down for a month or two and you are assuming nothing there for that time, that's 13% of the year shot to hell. If you are an optimist I suppose you say that's it, but I think there will be greater down time and uncertainty globally. Also, Fed really shot a big bullet there with that emergency rate cut. Not sure how many more ammo they really have available and I think that will just add to fear/uncertainty. Europe was already trending towards recession, Italy shutting down isn't great news, although containment would be a positive. I'm fairly bullish still on the US economy, but it's difficult to see when this all is going to pass. And on top of that you have the election coming up and you know how the incumbent loves the market.
The only tailwind I can really see that would play out would be China giving the mother of all stimulus packages to their citizens here. I think that's a possibility and news of that would probably shoot the markets up. But, all in all I see another 5-10% downside (that is PRIOR to today) and possibly more if fear gets worse. I'm not going to try to time anything personally, but I'd rather have more cash now than less.
That said, I see a ton of headwinds. IF China is only down for a month or two and you are assuming nothing there for that time, that's 13% of the year shot to hell. If you are an optimist I suppose you say that's it, but I think there will be greater down time and uncertainty globally. Also, Fed really shot a big bullet there with that emergency rate cut. Not sure how many more ammo they really have available and I think that will just add to fear/uncertainty. Europe was already trending towards recession, Italy shutting down isn't great news, although containment would be a positive. I'm fairly bullish still on the US economy, but it's difficult to see when this all is going to pass. And on top of that you have the election coming up and you know how the incumbent loves the market.
The only tailwind I can really see that would play out would be China giving the mother of all stimulus packages to their citizens here. I think that's a possibility and news of that would probably shoot the markets up. But, all in all I see another 5-10% downside (that is PRIOR to today) and possibly more if fear gets worse. I'm not going to try to time anything personally, but I'd rather have more cash now than less.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
They're going to still be holding much of that position after he's dead. And they'll probably add every 5% it falls. If your time horizon is 10 years, what's 6-12 months of volatility?
adonis
Footballguy
Am I off on my assumption (i don't post/visit here much but am starting to more now) that the Fed did what it did, and the markets did what it did, in large part due to the uncertainty around how the pandemic will affect future supply and demand?
If China goes offline, and the rest of the world follows suit to varying degrees, with folks reducing travel, reducing spending, some quarantines in place, demand dropping...why would that huge and unexpected drop in expected supply and demand not fully explain the shock to the markets, as well as an attempt by the Fed to encourage folks, even in such an uncertain world right now in terms of predicting future growth, to continue to borrow and invest by dropping rates?
I don't know that it always has to be that things were artificially propped up, or that the fed is just trying to prop up the market, but the true fundamentalals of the market and the economy are on incredibly shaky ground right now due to the potential of the coronavirus to drastically disrupt society over the next year to two years.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Didn't you post a question about paying rent to your roommate? Another question about investing like $3k?
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I don’t want to say that you are wrong or right—because nobody knows. However—the fed historically is reactionary in it’s actions and generally stays away from acting before a crisis fully develops. There is nothing to suggest that our markets couldn’t have gotten past the supply chain issues in the short to medium term and the fed even admitted cutting the rates probably won’t help very much. They specifically said that part of the move was to instill confidence back into a panic’d market—which is not really the role of the fed. The fact that the president pressured them to make a move a day or two before it happens is not a good look either—as the fed is supposed to be independent.
In your case—if China does go offline—we now have fewer cartridges in our pockets to combat that kind of event. Keep in mind—I’m not saying that the cut was necessarily bad—I’m questioning the necessity of it. As others have stated—our markets skyrocketed for like 4 years straight—-one bad week and our fed finds it necessary to make a rate cut that they themselves claim is not super helpful to the actual economic problems at hand? I assure you that if our elongated and historic bull market was based on fundamentals and metrics—we would not have seen a weekly plunge that wiped out a year or two of earnings.
Don’t get me wrong—I believe that our markets are the best—and that they are strong—but it would absolutely be foolish to ignore the fact that they are also supported by a lot of financial engineering and artificial means. Thats just my 2 cents.
