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Stock Thread (7 Viewers)

djmich said:
Why does it make a lot of sense?  Thx
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20% off its recent highs. As a defense stock, I believe it is mostly insulated from Covid-19. P/E is a bit on the high side for a defensive stock (at 17) but EPS is a gaudy 22. Pays a 2.5% dividend which is not stellar but with rates as low as they are, it's something. Let's just say I'd rather buy LMT at 20% off than a cruise company at 50% off. 

 
Capella said:
Thinking of zagging and picking up some cruise stocks. Basically a 50% off sale right now. Royal Caribbean down to $65 from a 132 in January. Norwegian down to 26 from 58. Carnival as well. I can hold these for a While so short-term no worries about the hits. 
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Good luck with all that. 

I'm trying to see what I feel is a decent jumping in point for airlines.   Also figure both of these would be able to take some bailout.  

 
culdeus said:
Good luck with all that. 

I'm trying to see what I feel is a decent jumping in point for airlines.   Also figure both of these would be able to take some bailout.  
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Read some more. I’m waiting till it drops another 20%, at the least. 

 
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siffoin said:
Spitballin' here.  And the comments are just for free - and worth every penny you pay for them.

#1) The market is bullish.  IMO it would take some time for it to actually turn bearish. By some time, I don't mean hours or days or weeks...I'm talking months.

2) The bull market is extremely over-extended.  By extreme what I mean is I'm of the opinion that there has never been a time if our lives where the market has been this far out of whack in regards to price:value.  Technically - it is what I would consider ripe for some type of correction.  That doesn't mean today is a top.  Or tomorrow.  But I would suggest that soon, it would be "natural" for the market to begin some corrective move - just to get back in-line with the bullish trend.  For example if the $SPY were to drop 20 points...we'd still be WAY over-valued and my opinion wouldn't change.   A 15-20% correction wouldn't move the needle on the LT bull trend.  At these current levels we are in dangerous territory if you care about that 15-20%.

3) I'm $GYPR(ing) to protect and prepare for opportunity if and when the market does decide to come back towards "balance".  It's not a time for panic - sell everything.  Rather a taking a calm perspective with future opportunity in mind.

4) So what to do:  You've got 15% sitting in cash.  Would you consider a hedge type of play on that?  For simplicity you might want to take a look at the ETF $TAIL.  It's a tail risk strategy that invests about 90% in US Treasuries and then out of the $ Puts on the $SPY. In a corrective move investors will tend to flee towards treasuries, volatility will increase (+ value to the puts), and the puts themselves will increase in value.  If we're wrong...$TAIL will  decline, but that loss will be off-set by the increase of your already held long positions.  In addition because the $VIX is pretty low, the timing is decent and $TAIL is pretty cheap.  If and when the corrective moves comes - look to unload at levels of support.  Right now that would be $290ish and $280ish - being attentive if the $SPY were dropping towards those levels and finding the right time for YOU to unload.  This isn't about being perfect.  It's about developing a plan for a "natural" corrective move and following that plan as it unfolds.

5) I'm hesitant to post this type of stuff because if I had my way I'd want "most" of you to make money. (I kid you Trump loving lunatics - I even want you to make money too- I guess that's the "socialist" in me).  Therefore, please do your own due diligence and mostly don't do something stupid because I posted something stupid.
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Just curious...did you buy $TAIL?

 
culdeus said:
Good luck with all that. 

I'm trying to see what I feel is a decent jumping in point for airlines.   Also figure both of these would be able to take some bailout.  
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Bailing out the cruise ship industry would be ridiculous. 
 

airlines will totally get a handout though. 

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
Bailing out the cruise ship industry would be ridiculous. 
 

airlines will totally get a handout though. 
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yeah, which is why I'm looking at them a lot closer than cruise lines. Cruise ship industry doesn't have near the economic benefit to the USA, would probably argue it's bigger to virtually every other country on the planet.

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
Re: oil

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/saudis-plan-big-oil-output-hike-beginning-all-out-price-war

Saudi’s are going to flood the market and put a hurting on the shale side. Could see the impact cascade right into banks as those overly leveraged businesses collapse.
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KSA hitting back at Russia seems really poorly timed.  

https://www.ft.com/content/d700b71a-6122-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

This covers it (paywall seems to have gone up in last hour though? can anyone see this? Now it's showing I have to pay, oh well)

Banks don't hold most of the notes on the Permian plays, it's a lot of hedge fund and VC money.  You need way more money than what your mom/pop shops have to bring to bear on these plays.  

 
XOM could by EEG now for the same price they paid for XTO.  By tomorrow they could probably throw another couple mid-streamers on top of that.  WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

 
culdeus said:
KSA hitting back at Russia seems really poorly timed.  

https://www.ft.com/content/d700b71a-6122-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

This covers it (paywall seems to have gone up in last hour though? can anyone see this? Now it's showing I have to pay, oh well)

Banks don't hold most of the notes on the Permian plays, it's a lot of hedge fund and VC money.  You need way more money than what your mom/pop shops have to bring to bear on these plays.  
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Hopefully not the same hedge funds that are currently at the Fed Repo window seeking liquidity injections.

Banks are on the far end of the potential cascade.

 
TVIX just seems like a no-brainer the last two weeks. Other than that one big bounce that we had.

I'm certainly not rooting for the collapse that we're in the midst of ... but I see no reason not to take advantage of it if I can.

Up a large chunk of $ since the slide ... which offsets my previous losses. Still holding some TVIX from Friday that could put me in the green with this.

 
TripItUp said:
Anybody want to dare to guess the bottom here?
 
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Let's see, we have an oil price war breaking out that is going to result it leveraged shale companies to go belly up. As a result of these going belly up, who knows the amount of damage it will cause hedge funds.

The credit markets are going insane with the 10 yr under 0.50% right now. There are countless companies on the verge of being rated junk. No good.

And we have the CV issue. Cruise ship companies are going to take a massive hit. We have a cult like president telling his 70 million Twitter followers that this is contained. We have a cult like CEO in Elon Musk telling his 30 million followers, that take his word as gospel, that this is just a common cold. I don't think Americans have realized what this might result in if we have to go down China's and Italy's path. 

And lastly, the fed is all but out of ammo. With this perfect storm lining up, we are still only what, 10% off all time highs? IMO this thing has a long way to go to reach bottom over the next few months. 

SP - 1900

 
Take_The_Shot said:
Let's see, we have an oil price war breaking out that is going to result it leveraged shale companies to go belly up. As a result of these going belly up, who knows the amount of damage it will cause hedge funds.

The credit markets are going insane with the 10 yr under 0.50% right now. There are countless companies on the verge of being rated junk. No good.

And we have the CV issue. Cruise ship companies are going to take a massive hit. We have a cult like president telling his 70 million Twitter followers that this is contained. We have a cult like CEO in Elon Musk telling his 30 million followers, that take his word as gospel, that this is just a common cold. I don't think Americans have realized what this might result in if we have to go down China's and Italy's path. 

And lastly, the fed is all but out of ammo. With this perfect storm lining up, we are still only what, 10% off all time highs? IMO this thing has a long way to go to reach bottom over the next few months. 

SP - 1900
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All this ... and yet people still have TONS of cash waiting on the sidelines ready to get back in.

This "recession" is a very different animal than any other. When has there ever been a recession with record low unemployment and plummeting gas prices?

Oil price war will hurt some in the oil business ... but help most others. How many companies and products will benefit from lower transportation costs?

 It's also helping our airlines and cruise ship companies that are temporarily taking a hit because of CV. 

After the virus runs its course, we're right back to business as usual. Markets will rebound very nicely.

(but admittedly, I'm very naive)

 
# of virus cases is going to skyrocket, that will cause panic and prob another significant drop in  market. Over time will be contained but will be a very bumpy ride.  I'm tempted to sell and try to time it but its so hard to do I'll most likely just stay the course and hope for the best.

 
Bossman said:
All this ... and yet people still have TONS of cash waiting on the sidelines ready to get back in.

This "recession" is a very different animal than any other. When has there ever been a recession with record low unemployment and plummeting gas prices?

Oil price war will hurt some in the oil business ... but help most others. How many companies and products will benefit from lower transportation costs?

 It's also helping our airlines and cruise ship companies that are temporarily taking a hit because of CV. 

After the virus runs its course, we're right back to business as usual. Markets will rebound very nicely.

(but admittedly, I'm very naive)
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The key word there is temporarily...is it?  Are people going to take cruises in the same numbers, etc.?  

 
lod001 said:
Yep. They can make huge $ in the markets long or short and I think this is a move to create more panic in  the markets and they had already built a large short position in the markets.
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Not to say SA isn't short, but SA wasn't the one who started this domino. Russia was the one who walked out of the OPEC+ deal on Friday. If Russia didn't walk out, this oil price war wouldn't be happening. And without Russia's backing, SA can't keep a lid on the supply so they might as well open up the flood gates. 

 
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