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Is this irrelevant if in a ROTH?
Yes except that you would want to have this in a taxable account as it provides you depletion based income which is scheduled in such a way that it offsets distributions.  In a non-taxable account you would be waiving those benefits. 

 
Impossible question to answer, to be honest.  I'm just making a list of companies that I see that have good credit ratings and will/are suffering with less people buying their stuff.  Disney parks will come back, but I don't know what a good price point is now, nor am I jumping to move around a ton of money at this point.

If I was to just start buying something now it would be BRK.

Now, if DIS jumped down to 50 I'd be happy to back up the truck.  So, yeah, right this moment I'd love 50.   :P
They're also halting production on live action movies.

IIRC, parks contribute 25% to top and bottom line.

 
They're also halting production on live action movies.

IIRC, parks contribute 25% to top and bottom line.
I read that it may see a small boost due to the expansion of DIS+ streaming services.  But with park closures and halting production I don't see how it could continue to climb through the muck.  I imagine they'll also announce lowered guidance for the first/second quarters due to those closures.  Can't imagine the stock wouldn't see red after that as well.  

 
BeastlyBeast Where we stand... 2770 seems like the optimistic target for this trade now. More downside likely, but looks like we need to consolidate in either the orange or red EMAs first.

Keep Trump away from twitter and a mic and this may happen.

Mancini - We're approaching the end of a very volatile week and where we close the day will be key. $SPX is currently consolidating right under resistance now of the bullish falling wedge in my below chart which is healthy to see for bulls. A break out would see 2720 fairly quickly.

6 hours earlier: Vicious overnight relief bounce for $SPX which was inevitable, and now bulls need to actually start taking out resistance levels to sustain this further. $SPX has formed a bullish falling wedge on the 1hr chart - a breakout of 2615 resistance targets 2720. One level at a time

closing in on 2615. 

Mancini target hit, I'm all in for a bounce. In Mancini I trust.

 
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Yes except that you would want to have this in a taxable account as it provides you depletion based income which is scheduled in such a way that it offsets distributions.  In a non-taxable account you would be waiving those benefits. 
Is there anything similar you'd recommend for a non-taxable account? 

 
Doubling down a bit with money on the sidelines and pushing into SPXU at market close at 28.36.  Not buying this run up at all.  Think we dive again next week.

 
Felt horrible about my exposure in metals this week, then looked at this jnug chart from today, and I don't feel quite as bad. Everything's relative. 

 
Felt horrible about my exposure in metals this week, then looked at this jnug chart from today, and I don't feel quite as bad. Everything's relative. 
Damn. From almost a $100 two weeks ago to $4.47. It was almost $50 on Tuesday. Then again there was a guy in the crypto thread on March 7th who said half his money was in 3x leveraged coins. Two of those are half what the were a week ago and the other is a third lower. If you are 3x leveraged and something goes down 50% do you owe someone money or is it basically worthless?

 
Damn, the market really liked this presser.
Yeah.  Seems the government is finally all hands on deck here, which at least gives confidence that they are taking this thing seriously finally.  Lots of shorts covering as well.

With drastic increase in testing, you will obviously see drastic increase in cases which makes me wonder how the market reacts with this news.

We're looking at about 2,100 cases in the US, with about 40 deaths, so the mortality rate has decreased significantly and is currently under 2% domestically.

I wonder what the reaction is if we come in on Monday or Tuesday and there are say 15,000 cases in the US.  I mean that's a huge increase but obviously more testing = more cases.  And of course the mortality rate will still be lowered, but I think the focus will be on a possible overrunning of the health care system :shrug:   

Again, until we get some really good news like a timeline to a vaccine or else significant decreases if the weather warms, it's going to be up/down/down/up, repeat.  The swings are simply massive though which is super concerning.

Oh, and I read this was the biggest up day since 2008....which was 4 months prior to the market bottoming at a 29% decline from that high.

 
Things I learned today:  Futures have an upper limit circuit breaker.  In market - no upper circuit breaker.  Sky's the limit. 

 
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We're looking at about 2,100 cases in the US, with about 40 deaths, so the mortality rate has decreased significantly and is currently under 2% domestically.
Completely IMO or :tinfoilhat:  if you like, but it looks like to me that we likely have way more cases  out there that are so mild they aren't recognized and the numbers look worse for it.  It still looks very troublesome for the elderly and health compromised.

 
Yeah.  Seems the government is finally all hands on deck here, which at least gives confidence that they are taking this thing seriously finally.  Lots of shorts covering as well.

With drastic increase in testing, you will obviously see drastic increase in cases which makes me wonder how the market reacts with this news.

We're looking at about 2,100 cases in the US, with about 40 deaths, so the mortality rate has decreased significantly and is currently under 2% domestically.

I wonder what the reaction is if we come in on Monday or Tuesday and there are say 15,000 cases in the US.  I mean that's a huge increase but obviously more testing = more cases.  And of course the mortality rate will still be lowered, but I think the focus will be on a possible overrunning of the health care system :shrug:   

Again, until we get some really good news like a timeline to a vaccine or else significant decreases if the weather warms, it's going to be up/down/down/up, repeat.  The swings are simply massive though which is super concerning.

Oh, and I read this was the biggest up day since 2008....which was 4 months prior to the market bottoming at a 29% decline from that high.
It’s definitely not over and honestly I have more invested than in cash so I’m not hoping for more down. I just don’t think we’ve resolved anything yet so I definitely feel a bounce more than recovery. 

 
still have everything on the sidelines...I have no problem missing today's runup.
They did a study of 2008 market timers and found that many got out expeditiously but didn't get back in well.  On the whole they did worse than buy and hold folks because of it.  I expect more volatility, but definitely will be trying not to wait for the perfect time.  I did get in more than I sold yesterday, so at least feel pretty good about that.

As a corollary, another study found that active mutual fund managers trounce the market when buying, but suck when selling, so overall underperform the indices.

 
Small caps are laggards which would make sense that they cannot withstand a prolonged slowdown. they went down the hardest yesterday and failed to come back as well as large cap growth. 

All my value funds were laggards as well across the board.

 
I don't post much here any longer. But, thought I'd drop a line here. 

I was watching the virus expand in China during the month of January. Going into this year, my strategy was to shift out of equities over the first half of 2020 and wait out the election. Keep in mind, I am one of those people that did retire recently (last April). However, due to a sudden health problem with my Dad, our plans of traveling in an RV have been put on a short hold. Because of this the wife is still working (she doesn't want to wait around to travel, or doesn't want to sit around the house looking at me all day) She also has a FERS disability check coming in every month. So, we are not currently using any of our retirement savings. 

On January 27th I moved 95% of our money to cash/bonds. I put a little into gold etf and have been buying physical silver as well. I'm still waiting another 3-4 weeks to get back in. Had I stayed in the market, I would be down somewhere around 35%. (luckily, I did some tax harvesting at the end of 2019). 

I don't think we are at the bottom. We haven't felt the full economic impact of people not being able to leave their houses for weeks at a time. This is just the first wave. The tide is still rising. My plan is to dollar cost average my way back in periodically. I'm not looking to catch it all. A 15% bump would make me happy for the year. If that happens I will look to take some profits again before the election and wait it out. 

Good luck to everyone. Be safe. 

 
They did a study of 2008 market timers and found that many got out expeditiously but didn't get back in well.  On the whole they did worse than buy and hold folks because of it.  I expect more volatility, but definitely will be trying not to wait for the perfect time.  I did get in more than I sold yesterday, so at least feel pretty good about that.

As a corollary, another study found that active mutual fund managers trounce the market when buying, but suck when selling, so overall underperform the indices.
I got a crap ton in cydy but I got lucky and was all cash in my 401k besides cydy.  I was all cash because I liquidated our company 401k that closed and thought market was too high to buy late 2019.  I have been buying back since markwt was below 25k in increments.  I still have 25% in cash.  Not looking for bottom. Just value.  But my wife has the hedge, besides her cydy she is still 70% cash and refuses to go in until market hits 20k or less.  She pulled her money out at around 27k on the run up. Interesting times.

 
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They did a study of 2008 market timers and found that many got out expeditiously but didn't get back in well.  On the whole they did worse than buy and hold folks because of it.  I expect more volatility, but definitely will be trying not to wait for the perfect time.  I did get in more than I sold yesterday, so at least feel pretty good about that.

As a corollary, another study found that active mutual fund managers trounce the market when buying, but suck when selling, so overall underperform the indices.
I thought this was common knowledge. 90%+ of the market timers here will fumble the buy-back and end up worse than the ones who ride it out. 

These are the same people who went 100% cash and shiny rocks 5+ years ago after years of prosperity because "the market is going to crash any day now!" 

 
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I thought this was common knowledge. 90%+ of the market timers here will fumble the buy-back and end up worse than the ones who ride it out. 

These are the same people who went 100% cash and shiny rocks 5+ years ago after years of prosperity because "the market is going to crash any day now!" 
looking forward to being in the 10%

 
Yep, perfectly said.  You only hear these guys on here when we have a correction.  Kind of like the guys who only tell you about how much the win at gambling.  They omit the fact they lose their shirts most of the time.
Is fantasy42 losing his shirt?  He's been quit.

 
Yep, perfectly said.  You only hear these guys on here when we have a correction.  Kind of like the guys who only tell you about how much the win at gambling.  They omit the fact they lose their shirts most of the time.
Unless you’re good at poker.  In that case, you’re winning a hell of a lot more than you’re losing.

 
Some people have less downside tolerance than upside need.  If you are reasonably ahead of schedule on retirement and funds then even if you miss the rebound the falling knife won't cut you.  

More than willing to miss out on a little bit of rebound. And I will.  My moves are made with cash flow in mind in a shorter term than when I was 20.   

 
Take_The_Shot said:
I don't want to speak for him, but if you've been following the thread he shorted SHAK a few weeks back. It's since dropped 50%. So no, he probably has lots of shirts. 
Good for him.  Especially with the TP shortage.

 

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