What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Stock Thread (7 Viewers)

Completely IMO, but I'd hold bonds, gold, and REITs in non-taxable accounts if you can swing it.

Ouch.
The two REIT's (cdr.prc and nrz-b) I have have both gotten murdered in the last six since I bought them to the tune of 20-45%, as has gold. At this point though, I'm going to have to hold for the long term. What scares me is how low we're going after this relief rally fades. 

I don't know #### about bonds, any in particular you'd recommend for holding over the next couple of years? I'm looking for safety, not high risk/reward. 

 
The two REIT's (cdr.prc and nrz-b) I have have both gotten murdered in the last six since I bought them to the tune of 20-45%, as has gold. At this point though, I'm going to have to hold for the long term. What scares me is how low we're going after this relief rally fades. 

I don't know #### about bonds, any in particular you'd recommend for holding over the next couple of years? I'm looking for safety, not high risk/reward. 
BIL, ICSH, GVI.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
DIS as well, though I've already dipped my toe in that water. It might see spots well below 90, but I'm happy to have it there.
Educate me on SHOP - actually been considering some May/June expiration puts on them. Less than half their revenue comes from subscriptions and if lockdown picks up can’t imagine Small and Mid-size biz’s will do very well.  

Not to mention high valuation and still up 90% over the last year. 

 
Again novice here so sorry for stupid questions.

How does this "futures" thing work?  I am used to the trading times being open in the morning then over at 4pm, with nothing on weekends.  So what is this middle of the night activity, for example with the S&P?  On spfutures.org right now it shows activity today.

Is that all other countries buying and selling?

 
Apologies as I'm sure this has been covered but I can't find it, but why are people in here so bullish on cydy?
It’s a small drug company and penny stock (now trading around 1$) that @chet turned us all on too.  They have a specific drug treatment that looks very promising across HIV, multiple cancers and now possibly COVID-19.  It’s a gamble but one with lots of upside if it hits.  

 
BIL, ICSH, GVI.
Thanks, those are low % returns, but I'm just looking for safety at this point. Happy to miss some of the rebound in order to not catch the falling knife. Wish I had Vanguard instead of Merril Edge right now, would jump into some VCLT. 

 
It’s a small drug company and penny stock (now trading around 1$) that @chet turned us all on too.  They have a specific drug treatment that looks very promising across HIV, multiple cancers and now possibly COVID-19.  It’s a gamble but one with lots of upside if it hits.  
I do think we should probably put it into perspective on what a gamble it is though.

My knowledge of this industry is pretty minimal so take that for what its worth but there are a large number of businesses like CYDY that never get anything to market.

This is still a longshot to hit.  While I admire Chet's confidence and willingness to put his rep on the line, definitely need to stay a little grounded.  Chet's posts about adding all the time don't exactly spell grounded to me but I've also dabbled into it. I don't bet favorites when I go to the track and this seems akin to throwing some dollars on a horse at longer odds to win.

 
I do think we should probably put it into perspective on what a gamble it is though.

My knowledge of this industry is pretty minimal so take that for what its worth but there are a large number of businesses like CYDY that never get anything to market.

This is still a longshot to hit.  While I admire Chet's confidence and willingness to put his rep on the line, definitely need to stay a little grounded.  Chet's posts about adding all the time don't exactly spell grounded to me but I've also dabbled into it. I don't bet favorites when I go to the track and this seems akin to throwing some dollars on a horse at longer odds to win.
No doubt that is all true, but isn’t it true for basically any stock, especially penny stocks. Anybody putting their money in the market on a specific stock should probably heed the advice in your post. It’s all gambling.

 
Would purchasing stock Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) be a solid move? 

In the news right now for producing 5M test kits to test for COVID-19, and recently acquired Qiagen for $11B -   the benefits include clinical diagnostics and life science research support businesses. Revenue this year will take a hit with the virus; very much in the news with Trump's team working with them on the new testing kits.

Currently at $295.00 a share, were as high as $342.00

 
Would purchasing stock Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) be a solid move? 

In the news right now for producing 5M test kits to test for COVID-19, and recently acquired Qiagen for $11B -   the benefits include clinical diagnostics and life science research support businesses. Revenue this year will take a hit with the virus; very much in the news with Trump's team working with them on the new testing kits.

Currently at $295.00 a share, were as high as $342.00
This has been a long term holding in one of my IRA's. It's a good one to have even regardless of the kits, IMO, if you plan on holding for years. They do grow a lot by buyouts but they usually pan out. They also grow their dividend even though the yield is low due to consistent price increase,  so it's a good one to accumulate now and live off later. 

 
What's the best investing app?  Looking for free trades of course.

Robinhood seems to not have any of the stuff I look for.
Don't use Robinhood...they've had serious technical difficulties for a few weeks now.

I use Merril which is directly linked to my banking accounts.  I get 20 free trades a month.(or something like that)

I also have a Fidelity account, but don't use it much...because I have to pay for the trades.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
So what's the feeling for Monday and next week? I'm of the belief were not close to a bottom, but I'm a bear and have been almost totally in cash for about a year now.

 
So what's the feeling for Monday and next week? I'm of the belief were not close to a bottom, but I'm a bear and have been almost totally in cash for about a year now.
Unless bailouts, loans, and government stimulus can run the country for a long time, I cant imagine the total market isnt down another 20% in the coming months.

But who the heck knows.

 
This market is oversold.  Even assuming 15% reduction in 2020 S&P 500 earnings you have a future PE ratio of 16 right now.  Considering the 10 year Treasury is under 1% and stocks look very cheap.
What does this mean? 😥

 
Last edited by a moderator:
So what's the feeling for Monday and next week? I'm of the belief were not close to a bottom, but I'm a bear and have been almost totally in cash for about a year now.
Think the market bottoms between 1900-2100, atleast that's how im playing it. I don't expect or care about catching the exact bottom though. Every 10% drop im adding another 20%. Cost basis right now is an SP500 of 2700 with 60% invested 40% cash. 20% more goes in at around 2200 and the last 20% around 1900. Price points so far have been 2950,2700,2480.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The increased testing (while definitely good) will lead to more positive cases. I think that's the number the general public is hinging on, and I think that will continue to drive the market down in the near future.

 
The second quarter numbers are going to look absolutely terrible for lots of companies.  They will probably look great for some—but I’d have a hard time feeling very confident in our markets for the next 2-3 months.  Our unemployment numbers will rise—and pretty soon—I think that there will be major supply chain issues in some markets.  In Los Angeles for example—-our port is basically empty—not many cargo ships coming with goods—but stores are running low on inventory.   I’m still bullish on the markets for the long term—but this thing is going to cause a lot of economic collateral damage. 

 
New tickers to look at:  SCI, CSV.  The math indicates that about 1M Americans will die from this thing over the next year.  

 
Again novice here so sorry for stupid questions.

How does this "futures" thing work?  I am used to the trading times being open in the morning then over at 4pm, with nothing on weekends.  So what is this middle of the night activity, for example with the S&P?  On spfutures.org right now it shows activity today.

Is that all other countries buying and selling?
It's a measure of put/call spread of very short term options on the major indexes vs the previous close as the 'strike'.  

If puts sell at a premium to calls the futures push down. 

This is a very high level explanation. Probably there is a YouTube out there that goes into heavy details

 
Don't use Robinhood...they've had serious technical difficulties for a few weeks now.

I use Merril which is directly linked to my banking accounts.  I get 20 free trades a month.(or something like that)

I also have a Fidelity account, but don't use it much...because I have to pay for the trades.
Fidelity is $0 commissions now. 

 
Schwab is $0 commission on trades.  What I really love about my Schwab account for is its atm card.  There are zero atm fees for all atms in the world.  That is usually a $5 savings every time you hit an atm abroad.  It also has zero foreign transaction fees on purchases when used as a debit card abroad.  My Bank of America credit card has a 3% foreign transaction charge.  When you sign up for the Schwab online checking account, they automatically give you a connected brokerage account even if you don't want it.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Shouldnt real estate ETFs be doing well with interest rates so low? Random thought this morning.

Or maybe not if people arent going to be making money

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The math indicates that about 1M Americans will die from this thing over the next year.  
At this point there are only 156,400 confirmed cases world wide.  Even if that number is 1/10 of the actual cases that would "only" be 1.5M actual cases world wide.  How do you get to 1M American deaths? 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR31SziNf-1CYru3ZDsq3CTDweyWm4ctxcIZRbsFmtPPGQ_8O0JbDdifGT0#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 
At this point there are only 156,400 confirmed cases world wide.  Even if that number is 1/10 of the actual cases that would "only" be 1.5M actual cases world wide.  How do you get to 1M American deaths? 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR31SziNf-1CYru3ZDsq3CTDweyWm4ctxcIZRbsFmtPPGQ_8O0JbDdifGT0#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
For starters, I think it's safe to say this thing might spread a little more. 
 

1MM Americans might be high, but I think a quarter million was in play before this unprecedented social distancing / shutdown effort was underway. That would have only required roughly 1/3 of the H1N1 infection total. 
 

Hopefully this shutdown works because it's coming at tremendous cost. 

 
Apologies as I'm sure this has been covered but I can't find it, but why are people in here so bullish on cydy?
After being introduced to CYDY in this thread, I did my own research, and found what I believe are several red flags on investing in this company. I have 25 years of drug development experience and some specific insight on ongoing research on a couple of the indications proposed for CYDYs drug.

I’ve posted my reasons for long term bearishness on the company in this thread. I continue to the news on this company with interest.

 
Sneegor said:
This market is oversold.  Even assuming 15% reduction in 2020 S&P 500 earnings you have a future PE ratio of 16 right now.  Considering the 10 year Treasury is under 1% and stocks look very cheap.
I think earnings are going to be down much more than that. I'd go 25%+

 
On average in a recession earnings fall 15%, that is why I used that number.  We don't even know if we will go into a recession.
We are already there. This puts us in recession. When we get out of this, a year or 2 they will announce the start date of recession and it will be dated march 2020.

 
The Lost One said:
Was thinking along similar lines. I was like 1 million deaths!!  Maybe total cases and that's still high. But deaths maybe 50-60k?  Slightly more?
Infections are growing at 33% daily.  We realistically currently have 75,000 infected in the US.  Beginning of April we're looking at ~5M infected and, assuming 1% mortality, we're looking at 50k terminal patients in 2 weeks.  

Hopefully this reduction in concentration of people reduced that 33% way down.  But it looks to be inevitable that about half of the US will eventually get infected.  That means 1.5M lethal cases.  Maybe we can get some therapeutics there to knock that down a good bit.  But (IMO) 500k+ deaths due to this is baked in in the US.

 
No, we won't know if we are in a recession until GDP numbers come out later this year.
You do realize that every time there is a recession, people say 'we are not in recession', only to find out at a later date, the recession was already on. It's always like that. You rarely see it coming. I see it's already here. You don't but that's ok, you'll find out soon.

 
I think earnings are going to be down much more than that. I'd go 25%+
Relatively speaking, that's short term stuff.  15%.  25%.  Whatever.

Interest rates are likely to stay low for just short of forever, warranting high multiples.  S&P is a bit low at the moment, and was a nice bargain at the close last Thursday.  All you gotta do is buy and hold for a year.  By May/June, though the epidemic will be cresting, the market will be looking past it.  It should be at 3000+ by end of this year, I would think.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top