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Stock Thread (8 Viewers)

Bossman said:
My opinion, economic crisis is over. Stocks have begun and will continue to rip up.

Doesn't matter about "earnings reports" ... Covid will be factored in and investors will disregard.

In these 15 days of quarantine, those that have the virus will show symptoms and get treatment vs spreading it unknowingly like what was happening last week.

Those that show no symptoms will return to work .... and we're back to business as usual.

Last chance for discount prices at the stock market. Yesterday was just the beginning of the comeback.

I'm about 50% back in and waiting for another dip for the rest. Maybe today.
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Wait, what?  We’re in a 15 day quarantine?  

 
Whyatt said:
I like Merck here. Pharma is “recession proof” but does have political risk. Merck has growth drivers (beyond Keytruda) and no significant patents cliffs.

Less so BMY, they are going through the merger process (Celgene) and that can be tricky.
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My opinion is that this pandemic and the need for Big Pharma to help will quell a lot of the political risk, at least in the near-medium future. I'm bullish on them. Leaning more toward ABT and RHHBY, although BMY and MRK are good as well. 

 
Bossman said:
My opinion, economic crisis is over. Stocks have begun and will continue to rip up.

Doesn't matter about "earnings reports" ... Covid will be factored in and investors will disregard.

In these 15 days of quarantine, those that have the virus will show symptoms and get treatment vs spreading it unknowingly like what was happening last week.

Those that show no symptoms will return to work .... and we're back to business as usual.

Last chance for discount prices at the stock market. Yesterday was just the beginning of the comeback.

I'm about 50% back in and waiting for another dip for the rest. Maybe today.
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Not sure I agree with that but I sure hope you're right and I'm wrong. 

 
@Todem & @siffoin

What are your feelings? Time to start buying in under presumption bulk of correction is over, or wait for another dip once euphoria of stimulus gives way to news of deaths spiking in a week or three? 

 
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[icon] said:
@Todem & @siffoin

What are your feelings? Time to start buying in under presumption bulk of correction is over, or wait for another dip once euphoria of stimulus gives way to news of deaths spiking in a week or three? 
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Well you know I have been posting when we have taken nibbles. Those massive down days (like March 16th and this past Monday) were big opportunities to nibble into high quality names getting thrown out with the bath water.

With that being said.....speaking for myself, I have been advising my clients we are most likely going to be seeing one more big leg down to test and likely breach the lows as the news get’s worse on the “virus” front before it get’s better. I do not think this market volatility is over yet, not by a long shot, but I am feeling the next two weeks this will happen and I will post here when I have exhausted all the cash we have on the sidelines as well as rebalancing our mutual fund models when we feel we are at the ultimate capitulation. 

I feel like we were at an incredible inflection point last week when the VIX soared to 85. But we can retest that no question in the coming weeks. Between NY, California and now my home state of Florida we could see an intense amount of cases and deaths which will cause market panic. 

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Is it too late to get into boeing at 150 a share?  Damn it.  

Everything airline futures way up again.  Not a shocker there.  
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This was a stock that was almost $450 and it’s multiple was not obscene. 

Will it get there again? Yes. But it will take multiple years. (3,4,5 years) whats wrong with that kind of return? No one could foresee what just took place. This is a true Black Swan event. If this did not occur. Boeing would be looking to get to those highs again near year end once the 737 Max was cleared again.

This has simply been an incredible market destruction event unlike anything we have seen in our lifetime in terms of the speed of this downturn. Still hard to believe. 

 
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Anyone have thoughts on the next moves from the US Gov't after passing this massive stimulus and if the markets keep declining over the next two weeks?  I understand that they needed to move quickly, but what's next? Just keep printing money and injecting?

 
Harris said:
Anyone have thoughts on the next moves from the US Gov't after passing this massive stimulus and if the markets keep declining over the next two weeks?  I understand that they needed to move quickly, but what's next? Just keep printing money and injecting?
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It's their only move.

 
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Todem said:
This was a stock that was almost $450 and it’s multiple was not obscene. 

Will it get there again? Yes. But it will take multiple years. (3,4,5 years) whats wrong with that kind of return? No one could foresee what just took place. This is a true Black Swan event. If this did not occur. Boeing would be looking to get to those highs again near year end once the 737 Max was cleared again.

This has simply been an incredible market destruction event unlike anything we have seen in our lifetime in terms of the speed of this downturn. Still hard to believe. 
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BA and JETS seem like a couple good long term investments?

I am still sitting out of the total market in my 403b, but and looking for a few individual stocks to put into my roth that I just opened.  BA, JETS (maybe some in DAL, AAL, UAL also), PLAY (pissed I missed less than a week ago when this was 4, now its 16), the entertainment ETF people were talking about, cant remember the symbol.....

 
ghostguy123 said:
BA and JETS seem like a couple good long term investments?

I am still sitting out of the total market in my 403b, but and looking for a few individual stocks to put into my roth that I just opened.  BA, JETS (maybe some in DAL, AAL, UAL also), PLAY (pissed I missed less than a week ago when this was 4, now its 16), the entertainment ETF people were talking about, cant remember the symbol.....
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HERO?

 
Harris said:
Anyone have thoughts on the next moves from the US Gov't after passing this massive stimulus and if the markets keep declining over the next two weeks?  I understand that they needed to move quickly, but what's next? Just keep printing money and injecting?
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Sending me a grand a week would really help the economy. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
EVerything already priced in or what?  Market down, everything I wanted to buy way up before open.  
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Man, I'll take that as my big $ is all in the naz and my stupid little trading account is all out. We need a huge multi-day rally to 2700+ so I can get out again. 

Adam Mancini

Yesterday was the 8th largest green day in $SPX history and as usual it happened right after peak bearishness Friday. I posted if we cleared 2400 wed could see 2600+ and its trying. Consensus is this is a deadcat bounce, if so,2670 is where Id short (DTL from the Feb high in #ES)

 
So all the airline stuff was propped up premarket, now do you guys expect it to all fall back today?  Rinse repeat?

 
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Todem said:
Well you know I have been posting when we have taken nibbles. Those massive down days (like March 16th and this past Monday) were big opportunities to nibble into high quality names getting thrown out with the bath water.

With that being said.....speaking for myself, I have been advising my clients we are most likely going to be seeing one more big leg down to test and likely breach the lows as the news get’s worse on the “virus” front before it get’s better. I do not think this market volatility is over yet, not by a long shot, but I am feeling the next two weeks this will happen and I will post here when I have exhausted all the cash we have on the sidelines as well as rebalancing our mutual fund models when we feel we are at the ultimate capitulation. 

I feel like we were at an incredible inflection point last week when the VIX soared to 85. But we can retest that no question in the coming weeks. Between NY, California and now my home state of Florida we could see an intense amount of cases and deaths which will cause market panic. 
Click to expand...
If lows are tested again, are there any other big catalysts to watch for that could fuel a quick general market rise again off those lows?

I wouldn't think there are too many financial levers left for the government to pull.

 
GoBirds said:
Pretty sure the markets saw that coming. If you aren’t long today may be a good day to sell some. 
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Yeah. I was convinced this was going to dump today. I sold a little and have been really torn on getting rid of more. So hard to sell when you see everything green. 

 
And here is the sell the news gravity setting in.

shorting the cruise lines after the opening pop was easy $$ (which I didn’t do).

 
Harris said:
Anyone have thoughts on the next moves from the US Gov't after passing this massive stimulus and if the markets keep declining over the next two weeks?  I understand that they needed to move quickly, but what's next? Just keep printing money and injecting?
Click to expand...
Japanification

We re-write the rules so The Fed can start buying equities. 

 
Well I guess this has at least been a learning experience.  "Day late and a dollar short" rings true for me here.  Knowledge is power.  Had I been even the slightest bit prepared to move around individual stocks, I would have moved up my retirement at least a year just from the past 6 days.  But alas, I have improved basically nothing in my portfolio of individual stocks.  

At least I should be much more ready for when this market inevitably goes down again.

 
NotSmart said:
If lows are tested again, are there any other big catalysts to watch for that could fuel a quick general market rise again off those lows?

I wouldn't think there are too many financial levers left for the government to pull.
Click to expand...
It is not about that. It is about panic. We have to be able to flatten the curve of the virus. Once this starts happening and the economy starts functioning we will recover.

Again you can’t think about year end in a selloff like this. You have to think long term.

Some sense of normality is what will propel the market again. The moment we start getting a sense of normality starting to return the market will start pricing in 2021.

2020 is priced in for the most part. 
 

There are several reasons the market is so volatile.

1. fear and anguish

2. unable to quantify how deep this may go on the economy which is uncertainty 

3. huge short selling and short covering

As a long term investor you need to be able to stomach the short term volatility and have the confidence you are buying fantastic companies for a long term horizon and they are industries that will survive and thrive.

The airlines, hotels and cruise stocks are being day traded, shorted and covered every day. 
 

I am focused on only two of those. CCL and DAL. Because they have the best balance sheets and are the best run in their respective industry from a financial viewpoint.

Everything else I have been buying are simply best in class names across all the sectors. 
 

Info tech

pharma

staples

utilities

industrials

materials

financials

consumer discretionary 

energy

real estate

I hope I am wrong about us re-testing and potentially making new lows. Would love to be wrong about it.

But I am willing to be patient a little while longer with the cash I have left because we are dealing in unknowns short term. Which will cause more violent sell offs. This is a very typical bear market right now. Before we start a new bull (because we will). We need clarity. There is none right now. So be patient, be long term minded and do not panic sell into this market. 
 

Anyone who invests in the market should always understand the risks and the volatility. 
 

Unfortunately we got sucker punched here. Absolutely no one saw a virus coming into our country and derailing what was a very strong and “confident” economy.

Once confidence returns get ready for lift off!!!

 
ghostguy123 said:
Well I guess this has at least been a learning experience.  "Day late and a dollar short" rings true for me here.  Knowledge is power.  Had I been even the slightest bit prepared to move around individual stocks, I would have moved up my retirement at least a year just from the past 6 days.  But alas, I have improved basically nothing in my portfolio of individual stocks.  

At least I should be much more ready for when this market inevitably goes down again.
Click to expand...


If you investing for retirement shouldn't you just get in and hold tight for years? I'm no expert but in my long stocks I wouldn't worry about a few % either way right now.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Well I guess this has at least been a learning experience.  "Day late and a dollar short" rings true for me here.  Knowledge is power.  Had I been even the slightest bit prepared to move around individual stocks, I would have moved up my retirement at least a year just from the past 6 days.  But alas, I have improved basically nothing in my portfolio of individual stocks.  

At least I should be much more ready for when this market inevitably goes down again.
Click to expand...
Just curious, what exactly do you think you have "learned"?

 
humpback said:
Just curious, what exactly do you think you have "learned"?
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Mostly to be ready.  

I also learned that when you sell stocks in the fidelity account there is this thing called "settled cash".

Basically I have learned how to use the fidelity trading app, how to use the limits for orders (which burned me a couple times till I figured that out).

I simply wasnt ready, and I could even execute the things I wanted to because of the mistakes I made in learning how the process works, which cost me money and earnings

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Well I guess this has at least been a learning experience.  "Day late and a dollar short" rings true for me here.  Knowledge is power.  Had I been even the slightest bit prepared to move around individual stocks, I would have moved up my retirement at least a year just from the past 6 days.  But alas, I have improved basically nothing in my portfolio of individual stocks.  

At least I should be much more ready for when this market inevitably goes down again.
Click to expand...
Yep. You got out higher than most, but missing yesterday is a huge issue in terms of getting back in. That's why it really is better to just stay in for long term investments. At least IMHO. 

Of course, your balance is probably still higher than a lot of people since you got out early so not a total loss. 

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Didn't take too long to go negative today.  Feel like bloodbath is coming over next few days.  
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Might be. My stocks are all over the place, some still up a lot, some down (not as much). Just feels like it’s a mixed bag day. I still have a nice % of cash (not nearly as much as the people who pulled all out) so I wouldn’t mind retesting some lows to move that cash back in. Wednesday was a better day than I thought to push some in but oh well. I think I’ll get another chance.

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Yep. You got out higher than most, but missing yesterday is a huge issue in terms of getting back in. That's why it really is better to just stay in for long term investments. At least IMHO. 

Of course, your balance is probably still higher than a lot of people since you got out early so not a total loss. 
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I would agree that if yesterday didnt happen I probably could have swapped my 403b money back into stocks as early as this week.  I still think the overall market is going down.  

The economy hasnt even really felt all this yet, mostly just the stock market.

MOre and more stores closing, more states closing everything.....

 
Wooderson said:
If you investing for retirement shouldn't you just get in and hold tight for years? I'm no expert but in my long stocks I wouldn't worry about a few % either way right now.
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ABSOLUTELY. This is a freakin gift. I already doubled my contributions in the short term to get as much as I can afford in at these levels.

 
Market still feels very confused.  Even with the bailout—there is still soo much more information and unknowns for the markets to digest. Newsom last night said that he expected the lockdown to most likely stay in place for 8-12 weeks and that the next 6-8 are going to be very important in regards to seeing how the virus numbers are trending.  California is basically the 5th biggest economy in the world.   If New York is kept on lock down for a while—they would represent somewhere around the 11th or 12th biggest economy in the world.   Even if somehow the rest of the country except of these two states started back up in a couple weeks—our economy is still going to be relatively ground to a halt.  The next couple to several months are going to be really choppy.   For those of whom  are investing for the long term—I’d just pick what you think are the best companies and try not pay attention to the daily roller coasters that are bound to come for a while.  If you guys are looking to buy and flip for some quick money—I’d be very careful.  This market has the potential to sting you pretty dramatically.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
Mostly to be ready.  

I also learned that when you sell stocks in the fidelity account there is this thing called "settled cash".

Basically I have learned how to use the fidelity trading app, how to use the limits for orders (which burned me a couple times till I figured that out).

I simply wasnt ready, and I could even execute the things I wanted to because of the mistakes I made in learning how the process works, which cost me money and earnings
Click to expand...
Yeah, you should certainly know the basics like how to place limit orders before even thinking about buying individual stocks. I thought you were talking more about trying to time the market.

 
ghostguy123 said:
I would agree that if yesterday didnt happen I probably could have swapped my 403b money back into stocks as early as this week.  I still think the overall market is going down.  

The economy hasnt even really felt all this yet, mostly just the stock market.

MOre and more stores closing, more states closing everything.....
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If I may..  You should get a portion (75%) back in asap.  Good move going 100% cash when you did, but very very risky with your entire portfolio.  Getting out at the right time is only half the battle.  Lock in that massive win for yourself.  Use the other 25% (or whatever) as "play money".  

 
ghostguy123 said:
Is it too late to get into boeing at 150 a share?  Damn it.  

Everything airline futures way up again.  Not a shocker there.  
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I bought on the way down at 200, 160, and 100. Cost average is about 155 (they were not equally weighted tranches). I feel fine with that. You can too, buying now. It’s over 50% off its highs.

 
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