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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Maybe in a month or two things can slowly reopen if we can somehow convince all the idiots out there to use PPE and universal precautions.
Probably about as likely as my Browns winning the super bowl
Probably about as likely as my Browns winning the super bowl
Shula-holic
Footballguy
The toughest balancing act of our lifetime. At some point we have to make the call at where the break even point of the cost/benefit falls. I don't even say that from my business' standpoint, we will be the last to have our part of the economy reopened.
Sand
Footballguy
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Capella
Footballguy
The relief act included free healthcare for everyone with the virus. Hospitals just send the bill to the gov't.
General Malaise
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The one thing I can’t figure out for the life of me is when the market is pricing in a soft reopen of the world. To me, I’m starting to think it’s June to the market right now, which is wildly optimistic, but I’m not very sure about this.
Warrior
Footballguy
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sporthenry
Footballguy
I mean I'm not expecting 6 months of no economic activity. That puts us into September which is probably about when the virus would start coming around. I'm thinking more like 3 months with stuff starting to open up as the virus subsides. I mean NYC is at or close to a peak. Once you get widespread testing both for the virus and for the antibodies, you can start to reopen things. At this point, the biggest issue is hospital capacity. As things start to peak and we get ventilators, no reason we can't open it up. At-risk folks likely will have to take more precautions until there is a vaccine. We had what, 160k ventilators and Ford is going to produce 50k in 100 days while GM produces 10,000 a month?Even a regular recession would usually indicate you’re not buying back 4 weeks later eIther
We’re far from priced to 6 months of no economic activity right now, imo. And I think 6 months is optimistic, tbh.
The 12 year bull market still lingering in people’s mind and a driver for bad decisions.
I assume individuals who recovered or younger folks will likely begin to resume life somewhat normal. What does normal look like? Guess that is the question. Is it a bar full of people? Stadium full of folks or some social distancing rules?
The median and average recession-related market declines see the S&P 500 plunge 24% and 32%, peak to trough. We already hit 36% in the most recent sell-off. Obviously, there haven't really been enough to really be of statistical relevance and each one is unique. But the stock market is usually a leading indicator while recessions are lagging indicators. This one is especially unique since we can call it so soon while we're in it.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I keep hearing the peak stuff, but I think it’s shortsighted. There is the other side of the peak, and the second we become lax (and we’re a fairly stupid and shortsighted society), it comes back and we’re on our way right back to that peak.
In terms of recessions, where would you put one that completely eliminates productivity worldwide? I’d personally put it on the much worse side than a typical recession, especially one creating wide scale death, which means we should fall much more than a typical recession.
ETA:
Also, 2019 was strictly P/E expansion, to the tune of a 30% gain. So the S&P brought us to highly elevated levels on hopes for growth, all we’ve done is remove 2019. P/E fell to 8 in 2008/2009.
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Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
I'll start believing there is some semblance of normal when major sports resume. Seems like a good enough barometer to me.
Since that is still a big "when" and I am not clear at all on the answer, we have a lot of time to trend downward in the meantime.
Since that is still a big "when" and I am not clear at all on the answer, we have a lot of time to trend downward in the meantime.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I think sports are a good barometer, but I’ll want to buy before sports come back, that’ll prob be the 2nd pop, can’t decide what’ll give the market its first true pop that won’t be given back.
But I agree about a downtrend and don’t feel the urge to start buying yet.
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sporthenry
Footballguy
Well there is a line we can walk between being lax and shutting everything down for a year. Given how well we handled social distancing going into this, I don't disagree that we really can't be trusted which will likely slow down the re-opening of the economy. But if NYC peaks this week and trends down, then what does it look like in a month or two? Widespread testing and ability to track movements. Heck, perhaps more people have already beat it and we don't even know.
As far as the recession, we've never seen such a stop so there is uncertainty but we also don't know how quickly we can restart. I too thought the drop should have been a bit steeper but if we hit 50-60% down, I'd be plowing into the market. But you're also going to see unprecedented economic and fiscal stimulus. Much of which will probably come back to bite us eventually but in the meantime, I'm not going to fight the Fed when it comes to jumpstarting an economy. Corporate leverage is the biggest concern but outside of that, the economy was pretty healthy going into this so that could help bring confidence back.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
2018 was a P/E contraction. Earnings were up and market was down.
The economy was doing great before the virus hit and it will do great once we get past it. This is nothing like the 2008 recession which was way worse. These folks that lost their jobs will get them back relatively soon.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Ackman's recent tweet chain can probably put the bull case a bit more eloquent. FWIW, futures are up despite oil being off 9%.
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1246871977064792064
Bill Ackman
@BillAckman
I am beginning to get optimistic. Cases appear to be peaking in NY. Almost the entire country is in shutdown. Hydroxychloriquine and antibiotics appear to help. There is increasing evidence that the asymptomatic infection rate could be as much as 50X higher than expected.
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1246871977064792064
Bill Ackman
@BillAckman
I am beginning to get optimistic. Cases appear to be peaking in NY. Almost the entire country is in shutdown. Hydroxychloriquine and antibiotics appear to help. There is increasing evidence that the asymptomatic infection rate could be as much as 50X higher than expected.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
You can’t be serious?
The Fed simply bought us out of 2008, they can’t do that here.
And where would you put one where productivity could snap right back? Yes, this has been an immediate halt but you do realize that this recession is based on a virus, right? How many other recessions were?
Also, are we truly creating wide scale death? We’ve predicted 100-200k deaths in the US. The accidental death rate (mainly cars and workplace) per year in the US is almost 200k. What about malaria, tuberculosis and meningitis which are huge causes of death in other countries? Even the flu as well. Wouldn’t all these quarantines help those. To be honest the death rate due to the staying at home could be less than normal.
I understand the difference in the suddenness of the economic impact but I think you are discounting the same thing on the back end. Sure there will be a bit of a ramp up but if you think people will sit home for months when they don’t have to then I think you are mistaken. Heck, I almost wonder how much spoilage will happen due to the overstocking of things.
Acting like this might be worse than the Great Depression or other recessions where things were broken could easily prove to be a mistake. I think the market is pricing that in along with a potential quick recovery. I’m just staying away from stocks where I think there could be permanent damage for a couple years or more. I’m looking for the baby getting thrown out with the bath water.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Can we do it again, didn’t seem like they left us much powder if any after the last recession....definitely not with rates.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I trust a guy who goes on live TV to scream the world is ending as he’s buying with two fists.
He uses a crisis to create fear on TV, cover shorts, and buy.
If I’m ever in a restaurant or anywhere in NYC and he’s in there at the same time, I’m not even joking, I’d prob go take a swing at him.
What a piece of #### that guy is.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Well not a huge fan of his whole crying thing but that doesn't change his influence on the market or his ideas behind it. What he did was pretty ####ty but that doesn't mean he's wrong now.
At this point, if you dump to cash you may save a bit more downturn, but I’d bet you’ll wait too long to go back in and end up missing out. Some of my stocks that got hit the hardest were up 50-100% in one week. I got a little bit in at those lowest rates to DCA some stocks that were underwater, but those same stocks were down 10-15% in the past few days. It moves so quickly right now. When we hit the true bottom and there are recovery signs, don’t be surprised at a 10% pop in one day. That’s a good return in 1 year.
Anyway, long story short, you’ve lost around 35% already so you are very close to selling low and then once you realize things are OK buying much higher than you sold. Good luck.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Bc you can’t throw money at a virus
Also, in case anyone doesn’t realize, at best, our current flu vaccine is about 50% effective. How long has the flu been around for?
sporthenry
Footballguy
They'll just print money to get confidence back. Don't think any Fed or Treasury wants to be known as the one who oversaw a depression. The Great Depression was caused by a lot of Fed missteps so think they'll just print money to get the consumer back spending.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Well I'm not an expert but don't think this will behave and mutate like the flu. You can throw money at the economy after all this is said and done.Bc you can’t throw money at a virus
Also, in case anyone doesn’t realize, at best, our current flu vaccine is about 50% effective. How long has the flu been around for?
If you honestly think it's this bad, you shouldn't worry about stocks and should go load up on guns and gold.
ETA: "The new coronavirus, however, seems to mutate slowly, experts say. This means its vaccine would most likely be effective long-term, much like a measles vaccine."
https://www.businessinsider.com/new-coronavirus-mutates-slowly-vaccine-could-be-long-lasting-2020-3
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The Ref
Footballguy
The next “depression” will be the final depression of a few centuries long chapter. It will be a worldwide reset of unbelievable breath and depth.
they will do whatever it takes to keep the market going. If they have to get congress back in session and send everyone in the country $5K they will. The markets can’t and won’t go substantially lower from here otherwise there will be nothing left to save.
and just like 2008 the entire world will be right behind us cheering us on to do so. If we go down EVERYONE goes down with us.
they will do whatever it takes to keep the market going. If they have to get congress back in session and send everyone in the country $5K they will. The markets can’t and won’t go substantially lower from here otherwise there will be nothing left to save.
and just like 2008 the entire world will be right behind us cheering us on to do so. If we go down EVERYONE goes down with us.
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sporthenry
Footballguy
I do wonder how long they'll be behind us given we'll be recovering by using the dollar that is being propped up by them. But guess as long as it exists, we might as well take advantage of it.
The General
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I’ve been a buyer of gold since it printed $11/$12 in front of it. The CBs around the world make this even easier than it has to be.
Interest rates are no threat and the endless printing will further devalue paper.
Joe Mammy
Footballguy
My wife is the brains of our finances. She just told me that $10K is a piddly amount (woohoo) and just let the fund mgr decide which companies to dump. Let it ride.
Not a fan either but that's not at all how it went down- he was up front that he was bullish and aggressively buying stocks when he gave that interview. He just thought we were doing it wrong and should shut everything down for a month (which I happen to agree with).
The Ref
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
He was screaming about the world ending and unless we go into a lockdown it’ll be like nothing we’ve ever seen before. I have a different take than you on how it went down, but we’re all entitled to our opinions.
sporthenry
Footballguy
I think the bigger issue is that he had a bunch of puts on the market via CDX. Perhaps it wasn't his intention to spook the market and I like to hope so but he certainly drove the market down. He did buy the protection in February and he already was in the money by a lot when he went on TV and said he monetized half of them before he was on TV.
Now you can say him closing those positions was him showing his bullishness but he probably should have at least acknowledged these while he was on TV.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Too much deflationary pressure right now, but the thesis for gold is well intact even more so for when we come out of this.
I’ve said this before, but my thesis on gold is that it’s a hedge against the FED, ECB, etc... and that’s a hedge you’ll want to own, imo.
The Ref
Footballguy
No argument - it’s the best insurance there is but it’s not a get rich quick investment
I mean, it's possible he's lying through his teeth, but he says very clearly that he was now bullish and had been aggressively buying stocks all the way down.
Interview, 8:59 mark
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sporthenry
Footballguy
Interview was on March 18th - "On March 23rd, we completed the exit of our hedges generating proceeds of $2.6 billion for the Pershing Square funds ($2.1 billion for PSH), compared with premiums paid and commissions totaling $27 million, which offset the mark-to-market losses in our equity portfolio...We have redeployed substantially all of the net proceeds from our hedges by adding to our investments in Agilent, Berkshire Hathaway, Hilton, Lowe’s, and Restaurant Brands."I mean, it's possible he's lying through his teeth, but he says very clearly that he was now bullish and had been aggressively buying stocks all the way down.
Interview, 8:59 mark
Again, the interview was weird. Crying about how screwed we were but saying he was buying stocks. Saying MAR is going bankrupt unless we shut the country down but then buying it despite the fact that we didn't even do what he recommended. Then hearing he exited his shorts after the interview and bought in stocks at levels that he helped drive down. At best, it's not a good look.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Def not, but I do believe staying the course on gold will yield friendly returns. My feelings are gold is in the early stages of a supercycle and will take out the old highs and March much higher over the next many years. The more we print, the more gold is worth, and the massive printing is underway.
dkp993
Footballguy
The problem is it’s way too early to determine that. With 2008 we have the luxury of looking back, we are just at the beginning of this problem and I have no idea how deep it will get. This has the potential to be way worse.
TripItUp
Footballguy
We will need to see some bank insolvency issues to match 2008 I think, hard to imagine Europe getting out of this unscathed.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
He is a POS market manipulator. He is scum in the investment world. I can’t stand the guy.
