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Stock Thread (34 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Retail accounts aren’t able to trade May. But Continuing to ride June down is an option. Name your next boat Contango.
Picked up some DIS right at 100.03. Netflix has earnings after hours, so we could see some big moves in the streaming space.
lakerstan
Footballguy
I was going to sell some TTD yesterday when it was over 240. Looks like a bad call to not shave some off. Had been running nicely above the S&P and was even up around 10, but the bottom fell out and I don’t own anything oil related.
Looks like it might have started. Damn if I didn’t feel like selling some after that really nice rally. Anything that’s been on a run lately is getting hammered. Still got CYDY and some cash so will just hold on and try and find some nice buys.
Looks like it might have started. Damn if I didn’t feel like selling some after that really nice rally. Anything that’s been on a run lately is getting hammered. Still got CYDY and some cash so will just hold on and try and find some nice buys.
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I worked in the 'biz 20+ years ago, not long, but long enough to figure out that the 80-20 rule was very much true in that industry like Real Estate, salesmen, etc. My guess is a guy like Todem with that much longevity and success is in the 20%.
Jayrok
Footballguy
I sold some Friday at 228 and was regretting a bit yesterday as it surged. Not sure why it's hit so hard today but I still like it long term and will look to re-enter at some point. Good company.
I meant for holding period. Seems like you're trying for quick profits, which is incredibly difficult. IMO the market is overvalued here and won't bounce much unless we get really good news on the virus or huge amounts of additional money printing/stimulus, but good luck timing that.
I should have sold some yesterday. I like it long term as well but it’s one of my largest holdings so I wanted to trim my exposure a bit. Oh well, if it picks back up this afternoon I might but yes to was the day.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
At some point I also like DIS too but I'm just sitting out putting any cash in at these market levels. I'm good with it if I'm wrong longer term being that it would mean that the economy is going to emerge in a stronger position than I think it will.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Anything up today? Pretty ugly day. Stay at home / work from home stocks getting smoked. Gold down. That can't be a great sign. Can't bring myself to buy a 1% 30-year.
Agreed. I also like it/own it/not selling but no idea why so many people are tripping over themselves to buy here. It was much lower a month ago, and that was when people thought things might get back to "normal" fairly quickly.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
I've said my piece on this but it's actually been shocking that it's held up for the last two weeks. A sell off is inevitable. Ad spend is way down and will not really resume until q4.
People can point to streaming but CTV is not a big part of media budgets right now. Its a space in its infancy that not a lot of dollars are going into yet.
More bad news is coming, Facebook will report earnings end of month, expect a big drop off in March and bad guidance going forward.
If my open option is any indication, I have a 195 p expiring 7/18/2020 and its up 46% right now, stock price currently at $214
TTD is a good company and it will come back but the next six months are gonna be rough
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Your tankers are. Tnk stng fro wht. Added more yesterday as oil tanked. Thanks again
Jayrok
Footballguy
I saw where Expedia's group chairman said they probably won't spend $1B in advertising this year (they usually spend $5B a year) and advertising spending across the board will be hit in the 2nd quarter. Part of the reason I sold. I do think long term it will be a good investment but right now and for the short-mid term, it's going to get beaten down.
I like your chances with your put option. Hope you kill it.
Sand
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Perhaps it is just profit taking in the ZM, AMZN, etc given states are starting to reopen. But haven't seen casino stocks or restaurants pop. Perhaps finally pricing in depressed levels of activities.
-OZ-
Footballguy
That's the million dollar question, is it a short term or a long term shift?
It seems highly unlikely to be based on possible good news of states reopening because as you mentioned then other names would be doing well. That's what we've had for a while now, a shift back and forth between stay-at-home plays and start-to-reopen plays. This may just be some profit taking in the stay-at-home plays, but it's clearly risk off (for now at least).
chet
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
Re: USO
I did too as it came back down to 3.00. Went half in with the amount I feel comfortable playing with. Have a buy limit in at 2.70 (-10%) for another 1/4th.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Yeah, I mean that correlation seems to be breaking but I'd say maybe the market is finally pricing in some ultimate demand destruction and it isn't a zero sum game.
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
Kind of feeling like I'll walk away and come back to see USO at 2.50. Or lower...
Edit. Make that $2.00 because I haven't walked away yet. Halted at $2.53.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Something in oil has to skyrocket over the next year right? Right??
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
I wish I would have pulled the trigger on something similar a few weeks ago after you mentioned it several times. Feels too late now.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
I just sold my Amazon. I don't want to risk a plunge. It won't likely go higher anytime soon. I'll probably buy it back in 1-4 weeks.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Capella
Footballguy
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Noob question - with technical analysis like this are you strictly looking at the close, or do intraday levels come into play?
We're at 2,735 right now.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Yeah but skyrocket from what level? It is about timing to some degree. Sounds like we're going to bailout the energy industry but those will be a lot uglier than the airline bailouts. They aren't going to give grants to them. Loans will be secured and will be lots of warrants. The survivors will skyrocket but OXY could be in the low single digits.
USL could be interesting. Or long dated contracts that are getting dragged down from this. December contract isn't going to double but $50 oil isn't completely out of the question.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Differentiate from GOOGL and ROKU for me, would you? They in the same boat in your opinion? Ads are ads? There's a reason they're different?
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Yeah, agreed the puts are getting really expensive. The action has been pretty ridiculous on them though.
commoncents
Footballguy
We are on opposite sides of this trade. I fully expect $USO to implode and possibly go to zero when the June contracts roll into the July contracts May 5. Currently holding put options against $USO. The contango is eating away at the NAV and there isn't any physical storage for the physical crude at Cushing.
cosjobs
Footballguy
commoncents
Footballguy
I would stay away from oil for the time being. I do think natural gas players are a good short term trade and Canadian producers may be a longer term investment after the shale washout.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Same. This thing could blow up. Just because the out month contracts are still in the $20s doesn't make this a good investment. It was the same issue with the short VIX product. ETFs with futures contracts are a dangerous game. People could and probably are just pushing stuff around to mess with this ETF. One guy I followed pretty much said market could push June to $8 and force a liquidation on this sucker. Yet, think NAV is 20% plus. I.e. you are paying 20% more than what the underlying is worth.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm not really advocating oil, just saw Morse was pushing $50 by December. But if you're going to do anything, just don't touch USO.
Is the Canadian thought just that they are less levered? Their b/e still has to be higher than shale right?
Warrior
Footballguy
Agreed, that seems foolish. Of all companies to bet against in this climate...Amazon would be the very last on my list. They're coming out of this stronger than they entered.
sporthenry
Footballguy
JPMorgan’s Kolanovic, who called market turn, says investors should bet on sunshine killing virus
If this is really the best we have. This is when insider buying and analysts are useless. Much rather listen to a pandemic expert than an Equity strategist. I mean I'm sure he spoke to experts but still seems pretty asinine.
If this is really the best we have. This is when insider buying and analysts are useless. Much rather listen to a pandemic expert than an Equity strategist. I mean I'm sure he spoke to experts but still seems pretty asinine.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
All these ad spaces take a while to mature.
First it was shift from print to digital.
First digital spends were desktop display, video and search. Then slowly there is a shift to mobile web and in app. Mobile is basically there but that was a slow shift to get more mobile spend in ad budgets.
Google and Facebook have the traditional desktop and mobile market fully covered as do regular pubs like NY Times, Disney, Turner, NBC universal. You can access these direct from your laptop or phone. Google is unique because they are able to monetize their own search very well (in addition to getting a cut of a lot of pubs display and video programmatic inventory)
Now you have CTV/OTT for streaming video ads and Roku is a key device for displaying the streams, so is Samsung TV, Xbox, PS4, Apple TV, Android TV but the media budgets have not shifted there yet. There are big pubs that are just figuring out how to monetize their apps in this space now so while it will grow in the next couple of years, it's way too early for anyone to trumpet that as a reason for any increase in ad spend right now.
Part of the problem with this space is verification, which brands rely on now. While traditional display and video has good verification in place, OTT/CTV has different issues as the verification cannot be done the same way. That's the part the IAB is trying to figure out. There is also a lot of fraud happening in CTV right now that is getting published so another reason that without good verification, brands are not going to want to commit a lot of dollars until its figured out.
https://www.adweek.com/programmatic/pixalate-ad-fraud-scheme-roku-murkiness-ctv/
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JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
I don’t think it’s a bet against AMZN but a bet against the markets on the whole. Cash has got to come from somewhere. Take profits and potentially rebuy after it drops 10%. I sold two of 12 shares myself.
commoncents
Footballguy
Canadian oil companies are being propped up by the Canadian gov't. At a certain point, oil will turn around, and the supply destruction in the US is going to be tremendous. I think I read that US production may drop 25% this year. I'm still sifting through the Canadian players' balance sheets to ensure that they will be able to weather the storm. But the ones that emerge will be able to take advantage of the carnage.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Added to TVIX and SPX. Maintain very large TAIL positions.
Sold ABT after hearing on NPR that their 15 minute test has 85% accuracy. Got out with nice overall profit
Cost averaged down this morning in my precious metal stocks (CEF SIVR) on big dip early this morning, but cashed out of NUGT for a good profit yesterday
Keeping an eye on ROKU. I'm in at 107, so I'll give it some slack
commoncents
Footballguy
Purchased 5/15 and 5/22 expiry with strikes of $3.50 yesterday before $USO went bananas. Wanted to take advantage of the roll into the next month on March 5. People have wised up and the stampede to the exits will likely occur before 3/5.
gruecd
Footballguy
People literally just can't help themselves. There's a deep-seated psychological need to "do something" when people start to see things going down, even if they KNOW it's probably in their best interest to just ride it out.
