Stock Thread (20 Viewers)

[General Malaise]

@General Malaise you seem like you are pretty knowledgeable about U and other metals. Thanks. 

Someome is wrong, your article or the guy on twitter. I’m just a guy trying to hit a home run on something in this probable depression we are entering. I think U is an opportunity...

I think we can actually both be correct.  I don't think it's wrong to say that Japanese uranium has been tailor made to fit their reactors.  BUT.....and this is important....uranium is fungible.  If prices head much higher, the plant managers in Japan will absolutely look to sell into it because they need cash.  Badly.  A better point to make on the Japanese inventory not impacting higher prices is that the banks are requiring the plants to hold material as collateral to their debt obligations.  That said, if the banks recognize the opportunity to service the debt by selling into a rising market, they'll do it.  The bottom line here is that Japan - a country that was like 30% powered by nuclear pre Fukushima - has been very slow to restart their reactors.  Who can blame them?  So there is an overhang there.  I don't think it's so much that it'll stop a potential bull market in U, but it could drag it out.  And that's fine if you're a long term investor in this.  

For perspective, I was involved with the first hedge fund that bought physical uranium for limited partners back in 2004.  We did that at $19/Lb and rode it up to $132/Lb before selling it all, which was nothing more than pure luck.  The aftermath of that has been a nightmare I'd like to forget.  The 2011 nuclear disaster punched a hole in my gut so hard that I probably won't ever recover from it.  I'd urge extreme caution on the penny stocks related to Uranium.  They're run by people who are desperate to make money after a nearly 10 year bear market where prices were dead.  The second their stock prices lift on rising uranium prices, they will do rounds and rounds of stock offerings.  Very few will ever be meaningful producers.  Uranium is really controlled by an oligopoly and if we see $40 soon (probable) the miners in Kazakhstan (world's leading producer) will rush back in and start mining again.  They have to!   It's their country's oil.  People need to work, money needs to flow in.  So....I like your enthusiasm and I'll be watching closely, but this is a long, hard journey beset with many pitfalls and dubious characters.  

 

[Don Hutson]

Very cool.  How did you become aware of its publication--did you see this morning's PR and then check?  Thanks for posting. 

I found it by googling "leronlimab".  Isn't the New England Journal of Medicine reference from this morning's PR referring to Bruce's Patterson's submission to NEJM which is planned for next week?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

CYDY is $3.00

MUCH higher volume than the recent green days

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Neat site

 

[Taxguy]

I found it by googling "leronlimab".  Isn't the New England Journal of Medicine reference from this morning's PR referring to Bruce's Patterson's submission to NEJM which is planned for next week?

If you check out the link, supplemental table 2 has data from 5 patients at day 0 and day 3 on leronlimab.  I am far far far from Really knowing anything about how this all works but those IL-6 numbers look amazing.

 

[bshell27]

Very cool.  How did you become aware of its publication--did you see this morning's PR and then check?  Thanks for posting. 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2011117

Let's just hope the President invests in the stock so he can mention it over and over again.  

 

[fruity pebbles]

Painful interview with the Nikola CEO on why he took 4 million in PPP funding. 

 

[cosjobs]

Neat site

Lou Grant - Morning Mary, want a drink?

Mary - Mr. Grant , it eight o'clock in the morning

Lou - Some wine?

 

[sporthenry]

Zoom, wait. That’s the tough part with these stocks. What are the barriers to entry. TDOC seems much more insulated than Zoom. 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

People who had privacy concerns on ZM are going to trust FB? 

 

[-OZ-]

I think market goes bigly down this afternoon

40 shares TVIX aquired

 

[Binky The Doormat]

Lou Grant - Morning Mary, want a drink?

Mary - Mr. Grant , it eight o'clock in the morning

Lou - Some wine?

one of my favorites as well

 

[Don't Noonan]

Nice day for CYDY

 

[beef]

Nice day for CYDY

hells yeah.  nice week too for those actively moving in/out.  

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Did CYDY close on a high for the day?

 

[cosjobs]

Did CYDY close on a high for the day?

Yes.

I got to thinking the MOnday interview must be a blockbuster and those who knew kept buying anf buying before the surge.

I wish I had bigger balls, but once I formulated this theory I added another 1000 at 3.15 a few minutes before close.

Ended day at 3.18.

Wow.

 

[Nick Vermeil]

I sold CYDY at the top. Probably a mistake but i've been wanting to sell around 3 for a while. Will be looking to jump back in next week if/when it gets back to mid 2s. Thanks chet!

 

[General Malaise]

Did CYDY close on a high for the day?

$3.18 close.  Penny below the day's high.

 

[unckeyherb]

I sold CYDY at the top. Probably a mistake but i've been wanting to sell around 3 for a while. Will be looking to jump back in next week if/when it gets back to mid 2s. Thanks chet!

me too

 

[The General]

What a day. Thanks again for this thread and all the amazing info in here.

 

[cosjobs]

I sold CYDY at the top. Probably a mistake but i've been wanting to sell around 3 for a while. Will be looking to jump back in next week if/when it gets back to mid 2s. Thanks chet!

You might not get it less than $5-10 at this point

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Was planning to unload some when it got to this point.  Will see what happens on Monday but still holding out hope that this is the call of the century.

 

[The General]

You might not get it less than $5-10 at this point

I like the cut of your jib.

 

[Zegras11]

Yes.

I got to thinking the MOnday interview must be a blockbuster and those who knew kept buying anf buying before the surge.

I wish I had bigger balls, but once I formulated this theory I added another 1000 at 3.15 a few minutes before close.

Ended day at 3.18.

Wow.

There has been solid buying since Wed AM when it was at $2.28.   

 

[Nick Vermeil]

You might not get it less than $5-10 at this point

It seems the manipulators keep beating it back down, so I'll try to take advantage.   House money at this point!  

 

[Zegras11]

$3.18 close.  Penny below the day's high.

I t went from $3.10 to $3.19 in the last minute.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I t went from $3.10 to $3.19 in the last minute.

Shorts covering?

 

[NajehHejan]

CYDY - I still wish I had my 20,000 at 1.00. Took 4% profit way too early, now have 1,225 at 2.76, and holding them with a vice grip. Sell order in at $99.99

 

[dkp993]

You might not get it less than $5-10 at this point

Oh hells yeah.

 

[dkp993]

CYDY - I still wish I had my 20,000 at 1.00. Took 4% profit way too early, now have 1,225 at 2.76, and holding them with a vice grip. Sell order in at $99.99

Yeah I’ve got 2600 at an .88 average.  Really wishing I had had the cojones to have made that 26,000.  

 

[stbugs]

me too

Just like I said to @-OZ- and I’ll say to you and @Nick Vermeil, I hope you guys never get another share. I hope it blows past $4 on Monday and never looks back and you guys are crying over missed opportunities while we host Zoom parties with hookers.

 

[-OZ-]

Just like I said to @-OZ- and I’ll say to you and @Nick Vermeil, I hope you guys never get another share. I hope it blows past $4 on Monday and never looks back and you guys are crying over missed opportunities while we host Zoom parties with hookers.

I was late to the game and only have 1018 shares so it won't make me wealthy if it soars but I won't mind if it never comes back down. 

 

[kevzilla]

In for Zoom parties with hookers 

 

[chet]

To reiterate,  I am not selling any shares and in fact, I bought more CYDY on Friday.  This is a rare opportunity.  They told everyone on Friday's shareholder call that Bruce Patterson is working on the paper that will change how the world looks at COVID-19.  That paper will be submitted early the week of April 27.  

Also, CYDY management is meeting with British health officials next week to discuss their use of Leronlimab.  There is speculation this is happening because Boris Johnson was injected and got him out of the hospital.

Good work, boys.  It was a good day.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Thinking of diving into some BA with it down to $129 now.  It's not $90 like some of you got it for before but seems like a pretty good price, no?

ETA: Also pretty nuts that CVNA is already all the way back to $92.  It was down to $22 at the low of the crash.

 

[pecorino]

Thinking of diving into some BA with it down to $129 now.  It's not $90 like some of you got it for before but seems like a pretty good price, no?

Yes. 

 

[Sand]

Probably wine

Good choice.  WINE.L up 12% today.

 

[Sand]

Yeah I’ve got 2600 at an .88 average.  Really wishing I had had the cojones to have made that 26,000.  

In for 9,100 at $1.10.

Limit sell order at 30 initiated.

 

[unckeyherb]

Just like I said to @-OZ- and I’ll say to you and @Nick Vermeil, I hope you guys never get another share. I hope it blows past $4 on Monday and never looks back and you guys are crying over missed opportunities while we host Zoom parties with hookers.

I hope so too.  I’m a novice bro.  I’m planning on making mistakes.  This probably will end up being one.  I took a profit and will wait and see.  If it jumps out and never looks back I’ll pour some out for my new homies that are hanging with Chet and his nasty whip in the promised land.

 

[sporthenry]

https://twitter.com/RealTianZeng/status/1253797242730881037

Good tweet on the divergence between credit and equities this week. Sounds like some of the softness was due to heavy issuance and some select defaults may drag down HYG. But have to assume that eventually bleeds through to equity, at least small caps. 

 

[Don Hutson]

Nader on Al Jazeera

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBHRTf9Q7eA&feature=youtu.be

Here is the percentage of shorts on CYDY day-by-day:

Date Short Volume Total Volume Percent
2020-04-24 3,223,728 10,932,671 29.49%
2020-04-23 2,587,909 5,681,070 45.55%
2020-04-22 1,289,831 2,326,839 55.43%
2020-04-21 2,803,438 5,389,774 52.01%
2020-04-20 3,217,895 5,731,390 56.15%
2020-04-17 4,120,425 7,008,207 58.79%
2020-04-16 1,801,178 3,234,122 55.69%
2020-04-15 4,461,530 10,474,998 42.59%
2020-04-14 4,179,521 8,829,419 47.34%
2020-04-13 3,770,305 5,779,925 65.23%
 

 

[Don Hutson]

If you check out the link, supplemental table 2 has data from 5 patients at day 0 and day 3 on leronlimab.  I am far far far from Really knowing anything about how this all works but those IL-6 numbers look amazing.

And il-10 amounts went up in 4 out of 5 patients.  That is good because il-10 is an anti-inflammatory cytokine.  

 

[fantasycurse42]

some select defaults may drag down HYG.

The Fed backstopped this. If anything drags it down, I’ll prob be a buyer.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

https://twitter.com/RealTianZeng/status/1253797242730881037

Good tweet on the divergence between credit and equities this week. Sounds like some of the softness was due to heavy issuance and some select defaults may drag down HYG. But have to assume that eventually bleeds through to equity, at least small caps. 

Really think that Mega Cap Blue Chips are where you want to be right now. Buy any of them on sale. 

 

[Don Hutson]

I think there absolutely is room for multiple treatments. I have doubts CYDY will be in second place though.

I'm curious what your opinion is now?  I value the opinion of someone anti-CYDY over someone pro-CYDY.  I don't need to hear the opinions of cheerleaders.  I want to hear the skeptic.  Also, did you ever get swayed enough to buy CYDY?

 

[sporthenry]

Really think that Mega Cap Blue Chips are where you want to be right now. Buy any of them on sale. 

Problem is, none seem on sale. That is what I sort of struggle with. Blue chips outperformed in the sell off and if you've held them YTD you've been fine. QQQ is down less than 10%. AAPL and VZ are essentially flat YTD. CMCSA is still 20% off YTD highs. INTC 10%. So maybe some value there but market seems to be pricing in little to no hiccup for them. And I know some of them may come out on the other side stronger due to competitors washing out but tough to stomach buying in a recession for only a 10% discount. 

Coming out of a bear market, the losers usually lead. IWM is only up 22% off its lows (down 26% YTD) vs S&P up 27% (down 13% YTD). Now you've seen PENN up 200%, ARMK up 100%, etc. So perhaps that was the 'losers' outperforming. But while large caps might outperform relatively speaking, it seems like a very fine line where they generate positive total return while still outperforming. So I guess my question is, in what scenario does large cap produce positive total return that small caps don't beat them? Seems like if we continue rallying, small caps have more room to run. If we sell off, large caps do better but still sell off. Maybe I'm just anchored on YTD numbers too much. But those seem like the two most likely scenarios for me. I've been trying to bottom fish in the SMID caps that sold off but aren't levered and don't need capital. They could get smoked by not having economies of scale or negotiating power like the large caps but they still seem cheap and you have less BK risk. 

 

[Don Hutson]

Really think that Mega Cap Blue Chips are where you want to be right now. Buy any of them on sale. 

That is probably where Warren Buffett is investing.  But I am not 89 years old.  I am going to invest into today.  Warren Buffett lost money in 1999 when everyone else was making boatloads.  The economy as a whole is going to suffer for at least 2-3 years.  That means Blue Chips will suffer.  The only savvy investment right now is one that isn't affected by Coronavirus.  I will be buying Delta, Disney, Boeing, restaurants stocks, i.e. America, when there is a vaccine.

EDIT: or herd immunity.  And herd immunity might come first.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Problem is, none seem on sale. That is what I sort of struggle with. Blue chips outperformed in the sell off and if you've held them YTD you've been fine. QQQ is down less than 10%. AAPL and VZ are essentially flat YTD. CMCSA is still 20% off YTD highs. INTC 10%. So maybe some value there but market seems to be pricing in little to no hiccup for them. And I know some of them may come out on the other side stronger due to competitors washing out but tough to stomach buying in a recession for only a 10% discount. 

Coming out of a bear market, the losers usually lead. IWM is only up 22% off its lows (down 26% YTD) vs S&P up 27% (down 13% YTD). Now you've seen PENN up 200%, ARMK up 100%, etc. So perhaps that was the 'losers' outperforming. But while large caps might outperform relatively speaking, it seems like a very fine line where they generate positive total return while still outperforming. So I guess my question is, in what scenario does large cap produce positive total return that small caps don't beat them? Seems like if we continue rallying, small caps have more room to run. If we sell off, large caps do better but still sell off. Maybe I'm just anchored on YTD numbers too much. But those seem like the two most likely scenarios for me. I've been trying to bottom fish in the SMID caps that sold off but aren't levered and don't need capital. They could get smoked by not having economies of scale or negotiating power like the large caps but they still seem cheap and you have less BK risk. 

Good points as always. Small caps certainly would have more room to run, just worry as you say about those types of business still having a way to go to recover and not knowing the full impact yet. More risk there. Might be better to be active in that space, either buying them individually or buying an active fund. 

 

[lakerstan]

Leronlimab gets a brief mention in the NY Post that is mostly about Remdesivir.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/coronavirus-treatment-drug-trial-running-ahead-of-schedule/
 

“Several critically ill patients in New York City were able to be taken off ventilators after treatment with another drug, leronlimab.”

 

[BassNBrew]

@chet If cydy hits on a covid cure, will any institutions start buying or do they just exclude Pink stocks?  Right now they hold less than 1% of the shares.