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@caustic This has been very helpful to my original question above--thanks. I'd like to tweak the question and assumptions slightly.
Just some random thoughts... I agree about the relying on the Fed, but I don't think they back off. Can't keep track of what number stimulus package were on now and there still seems to be a lot of individuals hurting and unable to get unemployment checks. Probably result in another package which will include more Fed freedom. Maybe the main reasons why I don't think the Fed backs off is probably better suited for discussion in the PSF.
Doesn’t matter how much the Fed puts in the kitty if the stage don’t have the resources to process it. And the states aren’t going to be able to hire any one when the federal benefits are more enticing than what the state is offering to work for themDoesn’t matter how much the Fed puts in the kitty if the stage don’t have the resources to process it. And the states aren’t going to be able to hire any one when the federal benefits are more enticing than what the state is offering to work for them
I think at this point--the future damage to currency has already been done regardless of if they agree to further stiumulous packages. The next statement I'm going to make is just for example purposes--not a political one--so please nobody reply to it--or take it in a political way. It wasn't too long ago when people thought that Bernie was crazy for thinking that universal healthcare could exist. It wasn't the idea of it that they thought was irrational--it was the cost of it. Many had projected 20-30 trillion dollars over the next decade or two. Well our government pretty much just agreed to spend something like 8-10 trillion over the past few weeks. This is not a political post--but just think about that kind of spending in that short a period of time--and consider that many governments are printing currency at crazy rates. Just fathom that and internalize--what does this mean to the value of this paper that they are arbitrarily printing out of thin air? Just those thoughts alone would motivate anybody who has disposable cash to put it somewhere else.
What do you think of CEF? Other than physical I already had, this seems decent value. I don't want to pay current juice on physical
I guess this is just where the market is. The people who think the economic activity is bad with people hurting to get unemployment checks think the government / Treasury will just continue to pump money in. Meanwhile, we have people thinking once we turn the economy back on, our unemployment is going to drop back to sub 5%. Then we have the fact that some are staying on unemployment because they can make more that way than working. The whole thing is a mess.
I added GOLD about a month ago off of your recommendation. Up 40%.
We were laughing about this yesterday. Also not trying to bring anything political into the thread but it is funny.
he has cancerFOMC today and important factor in if $SPX sees 3k. Bears had a shot yesterday but failed so far - shooting star candle & new high with bearish daily RSI divergence. Key levels now: Bears need to confirm the shooting star by losing 2850, otherwise we continue to my ~200dma target
What does Mancini mean here?
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Jumped in TVIX at 184 with a 6% trailing stop loss... guessing I'll see that stop loss before I see the expected dip
Congrats on acknowledging that we, generally, know nothing.
This makes sense to me. Everyone knew actual dollar figures and dollar guidance were going to be awful. No one is buying planes, and their planes are broken. We already knew all that, that's why the stock is down 70% from a few months ago. At this point the only question left for investors is will this company go bankrupt and go to zero, or can I buy it at a huge discount and get a company that is likely going to have a lot of that corrected several years from now.
Yes, and I'm planning on staying on this DFS train for a while. The short-term gains are tempting to take, but I bought for the long haul and will continue to resist capturing.
I'm in the same boat *snicker with CCL and DAL. This is play money for me. I hate staring at 11% and 40%
gains, but I feel like this is only the beginning of the ride up for these 2.
Leronlimab bias aside, still have some concerns about GILD dealing from the bottom of the deck here when considering the risks involved with Remdesivir.
I think you're kinda right. Sadly I have high cash levels still too. At this point I'm willing to accept I may have missed the train. But I think there's another train that will pull into the station in real estate soon. There's no way in my mind we don't see tremors from all this in rental properties and people who have mortgages relying on rental income to pay those mortgages who are going to be wiped out. I'm going to be looking there with my cash when the time comes.
I have no opinion. I was between Newmont and Barrick when I first started shifting my IAU into a miner, I like both of them, but the way GOLD has almost eliminated their debt in the last couple of years shows me their a smart responsible company who will eventually reward shareholders as their balance sheet becomes stronger.
Fed done speed-balling the market?
No problem -- there's not a smooth formula for cumulative probability with a binomial distribution, but with only 10 trials it's easy enough to calculate each probability individually and add them up. So if P(success) = .88 now, we tweak some numbers and get this:
Worst case, I'll go try and invest in small businesses that get left out in the cold. I mean what is buying a bar going to cost? Will be the last to reopen. Likely 33%-50% capacity for a while.
I'm also looking into getting into the rental property game in the year to come. Something I've always wanted to do and this might be my chance.
I agree. I've done enough reading on Remdesivir to feel it's not a very viable resolution. It will help, but side effects are terrible and its efficacy still concerns me as well. @chet I have to imagine with your CYDY interest you've looked into Gilead as much as anyone, what's your take?
One doctor’s opinion...and he’s pretty opinionated.
They don't have to say it at this point, we already know.
Our non payments this month were only up 1% when I looked at them on the 7th. I’ll update you in two weeks
CYDY is really dragging my return down. 4 holdings, 1 up over 40%, 2 up over 12%, cydy down 1% (I was late to that party)
I wonder how much of this is people with money continuing to invest and investing more because their expenses have decreased.
Yeah, I mean the issue is even if it shows benefits, doesn't make it a panacea. I don't think I really want to bet one way or the other on what happens when the data comes out. Could see it being positive but isn't going to suddenly result in us sitting next to each other at a baseball game. It is the same guy who said a flare up in the fall is inevitable.
