Stock Thread (16 Viewers)

[Zegras11]

Some Cheesecake news from my daughter on Mother's Day Sales

She messaged me this from a linecook last night....

You have no idea. At one point we had over 125 tickets on Pasta, 80 on Broil, 100 on Apps, 70, on Grill/Fry, 55 on Pizza and 50 on Salads. We had 1 person per station and should've had 2 with multiple floats stocking. No prep just 2 managers. I've never seen anything like it.

- a line cook at cheesecake tonight . The number of tickets, that’s insanity


And just sent me this...

Oh my god. 35 THOUSAND in sales last night. 35. THOUSAND.

All takeout and Doordash.

$35-40K is a normal weekend night pre-covid.

ETA:  They were expecting $11k

 

[Jobber]

Some Cheesecake news from my daughter on Mother's Day Sales

You have no idea. At one point we had over 125 tickets on Pasta, 80 on Broil, 100 on Apps, 70, on Grill/Fry, 55 on Pizza and 50 on Salads. We had 1 person per station and should've had 2 with multiple floats stocking. No prep just 2 managers. I've never seen anything like it.

- a line cook at cheesecake tonight . The number of tickets, that’s insanity

I was a cook years ago at Chilis and Champps. I would have broken down in tears if I had 1/3 that many tickets at my station at any time. 

 

[sporthenry]

Some Cheesecake news from my daughter on Mother's Day Sales

She messaged me this from a linecook last night....

You have no idea. At one point we had over 125 tickets on Pasta, 80 on Broil, 100 on Apps, 70, on Grill/Fry, 55 on Pizza and 50 on Salads. We had 1 person per station and should've had 2 with multiple floats stocking. No prep just 2 managers. I've never seen anything like it.

- a line cook at cheesecake tonight . The number of tickets, that’s insanity


And just sent me this...

Oh my god. 35 THOUSAND in sales last night. 35. THOUSAND.

All takeout and Doordash.

$35-40K is a normal weekend night pre-covid.

ETA:  They were expecting $11k

I do appreciate these updates. As someone who is short some restaurants, I do wonder how much is just the holiday pop. But maybe these big restaurants are the only game in town as mom and pops close? I did read something that said once dining rooms open, it will likely cannibalize take out sales as those people are most likely to eat out. I.e. It won't be 50% dining in on top of existing take out but cut take out in half and add back the costs to service in-person. Not dire but will cut into margins. 

 

[adonis]

While I’m not putting any money to work today—I really think that big tech, precious metals, and possibly bitcoin are going to be really solid plays in the next 3-18 months. I know that this is a wide range of time—but I’m really starting to believe that there will not only be a second wave of this virus—but that the second wave has a really good chance of being worse than the first wave.  

Just seeing how people seem to be relaxed about it in Southern California—and seeing a lot of dismissiveness about the virus in my social media feeds—is pointing me in this direction. Mark Cuban hired secret shoppers to see how businesses in Texas are doing adjusting to protocols—and they found that most businesses that were open were not really integrating a lot of them.     I have doubts that protocols will be enforced in any meaningful way—-and between businesses not complying—and many consumers being dismissive—I think that there is a really good chance that the second wave could be a raging inferno.  I hope I’m wrong—but if I see any moderate moves to the downside on the above mentioned sectors—I think that’s where I’ll want to adjust my portfolio to be heavier in.  Big tech will get more market share and I like the precious metals/bitcoin because I do think the government will be printing and spending more money.   

Question here for stock prognosticators:

Assume you agree with this view, that there will be a second wave, and it will be worse than the first, and cause widespread economic and systemic shocks.  

What's the angle right now on how to handle this?  Do we sell more now and await a pullback, or primarily invest in stocks that seem unlikely to be phased?  Thoughts?

 

[adonis]

That is a head scratcher to me too.   Isn’t Amazon making it’s own content? I wonder if they are thinking that they could make their own movies and release them to their own theaters—and somehow integrate admission to their theaters as a perk to some sort of premium subscription?     I’m probably wrong—but that was the first thing that came into my mind. 

Like Whole Foods.  Distribution.

 

[-OZ-]

Just threw some money away at PK, park hotels at $7.92. 

I plan to keep it for the end of the year. Unless it climbs bigly quick.

$8.22 now. Not a bad 4% gain for an hour.

 

[-OZ-]

Question here for stock prognosticators:

Assume you agree with this view, that there will be a second wave, and it will be worse than the first, and cause widespread economic and systemic shocks.  

What's the angle right now on how to handle this?  Do we sell more now and await a pullback, or primarily invest in stocks that seem unlikely to be phased?  Thoughts?

How much are you willing to bet? 

TZA, options contracts, cash. 

 

[SFBayDuck]

Question here for stock prognosticators:

Assume you agree with this view, that there will be a second wave, and it will be worse than the first, and cause widespread economic and systemic shocks.  

What's the angle right now on how to handle this?  Do we sell more now and await a pullback, or primarily invest in stocks that seem unlikely to be phased?  Thoughts?

Pondering this same thing.  

Also, what happens in the market if this continues to spread in the White House and Trump and/or Pence get sick?  Do we finally "retest the lows" in that scenario?

 

[adonis]

How much are you willing to bet? 

TZA, options contracts, cash. 

Not much of a gambler.  I invest in what I know, and stick to index funds for the rest.  I'm not as savvy as most investors in here, but I only invest in what I know.

So in this case, I have a high degree of internal certainty that this will happen.  However, what it means for the short term market I have no idea (6-18 months).  I can't imagine it'll be good, and almost certainly there will be ups and downs, but overall I see major disruptions in store soon.  Maybe we ride it out with only blips in the market as tends of thousands die, nursing homes across the country get ravaged, cruise lines have to shut down again, hospitals are overrun, travel grinds to a halt again...but I've not had any clarity on how those realities extend to the market.

Overall, on each spike we've had recently I've been selling chunks of my funds...but keeping my tech stocks.  However, with Apple now getting close to pre-virus highs, I can't help but eye even those stocks as sellable now...

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Question here for stock prognosticators:

Assume you agree with this view, that there will be a second wave, and it will be worse than the first, and cause widespread economic and systemic shocks.  

What's the angle right now on how to handle this?  Do we sell more now and await a pullback, or primarily invest in stocks that seem unlikely to be phased?  Thoughts?

Prolonged economic damage from the pandemic will benefit companies that have strong balance sheets and that can mitigate their damage exposure by relying on more of a digital/virtual format.  I don't know if I'd recommend selling more and waiting for a pullback--but if you have too much exposure to companies who don't have bullet proof balance sheets--it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to move out of some of your exposure there--and move it into companies that do have better balance sheets.

 I think the problem is that outside of New York and New Jersey where they have been blasted by the virus largely due to population density--many citizens outside of those areas are of the belief that the lockdowns were unnecessary or overblown.  What they are not taking into account is that re-opening the economy even in areas that are more spread out basically artificially creates the dynamic of high population density.   You have workplaces where dozens/hundreds  of customers/employees/delivery people are using the same entrances, lobbies, elevators, restrooms..etc.   For much of the country--the only exposure they have to the virus is through what they saw on tv or on the internet--and they've grown skeptical.   This lowering of the guard in areas outside of the really hard hit areas is what I worry about.   Keep in mind--that my prediction does not necessarily mean that our markets will collapse again---as our markets seem to be doing okay even with catastrophic economic metrics.    I just have my doubts that our economy is guaranteed to have a consistent upward trend from here on out.    If there is a second wave anytime near the holiday rush--- you will see a LOT of businesses that don't have deep liquidity evaporate--and coercly you will see some others dominate market share on the other side of the pandemic.  

 

[Guinis72]

I work for a property development & management company and I think it's going to take awhile for these businesses to recover, especially if we have another spike in the fall.  We're trying to help our tenants as much as we can, such as sending a list of resources for loans and other federal/state aid, but we're not really cutting them much slack as far as rent forgiveness goes.  For some of the restaurants, we're letting them defer 3-4 months of rent into a note payable, which they're supposed to start paying in 2021.  For some other retail stores, we're letting them use their security deposit to apply to rent, and then we'll determine later how & when they'll replenish it.  We have re-budgeted Common Area Maintenance (CAM) costs for the year, which should be lower than originally budgeted, and will help lower their CAM portion of their rent for the remainder of the year, but that's not a very large % of their total payment.  I feel like these businesses are already going to be stretched by tacking loan payments on them next year or "when things get back to normal" but if another spike happens in the fall, I'm not sure they'll be able to tack on another 3-4 months of expenses.

 

[adonis]

Prolonged economic damage from the pandemic will benefit companies that have strong balance sheets and that can mitigate their damage exposure by relying on more of a digital/virtual format.  I don't know if I'd recommend selling more and waiting for a pullback--but if you have too much exposure to companies who don't have bullet proof balance sheets--it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to move out of some of your exposure there--and move it into companies that do have better balance sheets.

 I think the problem is that outside of New York and New Jersey where they have been blasted by the virus largely due to population density--many citizens outside of those areas are of the belief that the lockdowns were unnecessary or overblown.  What they are not taking into account is that re-opening the economy even in areas that are more spread out basically artificially creates the dynamic of high population density.   You have workplaces where dozens of customers/employees/delivery people are using the same entrances, lobbies, elevators, restrooms..etc.   For much of the country--the only exposure they have to the virus is through what they saw on tv or on the internet--and they've grown skeptical.   This lowering of the guard in areas outside of the really hard hit areas is what I worry about.   Keep in mind--that my prediction does not necessarily mean that our markets will collapse again---as our markets seem to be doing okay even with catastrophic economic metrics.    I just have my doubts that our economy is guaranteed to have a consistent upward trend from here on out.    If there is a second wave anytime near the holiday rush--- you will see a LOT of businesses that don't have deep liquidity evaporate--and coercly you will see some others dominate market share on the other side of the pandemic.  

I think some companies will be hurt less by a second wave than others, but I can't help but see how global demand dropping in the near term will do anything but shrink the overall market valuation.  Sure there will be blips here and there with companies rising and falling within the overall market, but how could we not see a significant contraction overall if there's a second wave?  Truly looking for other opinions here.

Global demand hit by expanding infections.  If the US becomes even more of a virus epicenter, travel and trade here will slow down as other countries assess the risk of allowing folks to come visit or import products.

We're seeing in the meat factories what unchecked spread in companies can do to productivity and the lasting impact that can have on a national supply chain, and that's just one area that happened during pretty much a national lockdown.  Do we think this won't be more common in the weeks and months to come?

If so, I can only imagine folks will be cancelling cruises again, pulling back on air travel, pulling back on vacations or other things that they can defer.  Unemployment is unlikely to subside soon, as incomes will be drastically hit, depressing demand nationally.

I don't see many compelling arguments to the contrary here.  I see our current situation as similar to when Wile E. Coyote steps off a cliff with legs still spinning, he looks down, and then gravity kicks in and he plummets.  We seem to have stepped off the cliff nationally (just look at record unemployment) and yet our legs are still spinning and markets still near peak valuations in times of nearly full employment, but the second wave may cause us to look down, notice the lack of ground under our feet, and gravity will kick in again as we fall.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

You could buy puts on stocks or funds you own for a downside protection play on your portfolio. Are do you mean how can you profit from it instead of just save your portfolio value?

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I think some companies will be hurt less by a second wave than others, but I can't help but see how global demand dropping in the near term will do anything but shrink the overall market valuation.  Sure there will be blips here and there with companies rising and falling within the overall market, but how could we not see a significant contraction overall if there's a second wave?  Truly looking for other opinions here.

Global demand hit by expanding infections.  If the US becomes even more of a virus epicenter, travel and trade here will slow down as other countries assess the risk of allowing folks to come visit or import products.

We're seeing in the meat factories what unchecked spread in companies can do to productivity and the lasting impact that can have on a national supply chain, and that's just one area that happened during pretty much a national lockdown.  Do we think this won't be more common in the weeks and months to come?

If so, I can only imagine folks will be cancelling cruises again, pulling back on air travel, pulling back on vacations or other things that they can defer.  Unemployment is unlikely to subside soon, as incomes will be drastically hit, depressing demand nationally.

I don't see many compelling arguments to the contrary here.  I see our current situation as similar to when Wile E. Coyote steps off a cliff with legs still spinning, he looks down, and then gravity kicks in and he plummets.  We seem to have stepped off the cliff nationally (just look at record unemployment) and yet our legs are still spinning and markets still near peak valuations in times of nearly full employment, but the second wave may cause us to look down, notice the lack of ground under our feet, and gravity will kick in again as we fall.

The amount that our stock market will fall (meaning the market that contains the businesses that don't get evaporated) will be backstopped by how much money we will print to keep the economy afloat.  I've said it before--the super wealthy, and the companies that are sitting on a lot of cash will deploy that cash into the markets through acquisitions, buybacks, and other investable assets. Nobody will want to hold onto too much cash long term.   The nature of our markets right now are proof that the economy and the markets are not directly linked.  You could have 30% of our country unemployed but the markets could literally be strong at the very same time--as those 30% probably reflect less than 1% of our countries wealth.    The fat cats in our markets now are just primed to be fatter cats at the end of this thing.   Put it this way--if our markets collapse again--that would be the time to go on a shopping spree for those companies that you feel have the balance sheets to be one of those fatter cats.  

 

[adonis]

The amount that our stock market will fall (meaning the market that contains the businesses that don't get evaporated) will be backstopped by how much money we will print to keep the economy afloat.  I've said it before--the super wealthy, and the companies that are sitting on a lot of cash will deploy that cash into the markets through acquisitions, buybacks, and other investable assets. Nobody will want to hold onto too much cash long term.   The nature of our markets right now are proof that the economy and the markets are not directly linked.  You could have 30% of our country unemployed but the markets could literally be strong at the very same time--as those 30% probably reflect less than 1% of our countries wealth.    The fat cats in our markets now are just primed to be fatter cats at the end of this thing.   Put it this way--if our markets collapse again--that would be the time to go on a shopping spree for those companies that you feel have the balance sheets to be one of those fatter cats.  

There are plenty of fat cats, and many of the top .1% have most of the wealth, but they can't account for 30 million unemployed folks who can no long afford to buy what they used to.  Even with the Fed printing money, and handing out benefits, spending certainly will go down and no amount of rich folks spending money or stock buybacks will be able to avoid that for any reasonable period of time (3+ months surely).  

Surely there are some models out there that correlate GDP or market valuations to unemployment rates...no?  May be time to do some google sleuthing to see if there's a direct link between unemployment rates and stock market valuations.  Is there a direct link between GDP and market valuations? 

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

This entire thing has driven home the point (for me at least) that the broader markets and the economy are only loosely connected nowadays namely because the markets can be manipulated while core macro trends in the economy (namely supply and demand) cannot. 

On top of that, I think we are seeing the results of a global flock to the S&P stocks as a "save haven" as crazy as that seems. 

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

just wait until the Federal Reserve starts buying equities straight up. THAT should be fun. That's the only thing between us and negative rates as a natural compromise imo.

 

[Slapdash]

These Stonks just can't be beat.

 

[beef]

These Stonks just can't be beat.

Marvel should create a new series about General Nasdaq.  All the Avengers and their super powers combined into one super hero.  

 

[adonis]

Nice graphs here: https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp/

Seems to boil down to expectations of a V shaped rapid recovery with minimal impact to GDP.  If GDP is impacted, seems pretty historically correlated to a downturn in the market.  Not sure what magic out there could prevent GDP from being even worse than expected at this point, but I've been wrong plenty before.

 

[kevzilla]

VIX down 2.79%, TVIX down 11.51%. That's the kind of thing that claims a lot of scalps...including mine.

 

[McBokonon]

  However, with Apple now getting close to pre-virus highs, I can't help but eye even those stocks as sellable now...

I'm struggling with this one right now. I sold a little Apple a while back because it became way too large a part of my IRA's but this thing doesn't give a crap right now and keeps going. I'm with many here that a big drop is coming but Apple, with their focus on services - I don't know, feels like a MSFT that might just get stronger if things get bad again. 

 

[adonis]

I'm struggling with this one right now. I sold a little Apple a while back because it became way too large a part of my IRA's but this thing doesn't give a crap right now and keeps going. I'm with many here that a big drop is coming but Apple, with their focus on services - I don't know, feels like a MSFT that might just get stronger if things get bad again. 

They have a focus on services, but they're still heavy into consumer devices.  Their cash position is strong, they're innovating unlike other companies, so long term they're incredibly strong...but who is immune from a global/national demand reduction?  Again, i'm not offering advice for others, but for the first time since buying my first AAPL stock, i'm going to sell some. Maybe 1/3 of my holdings.  I've had easily over 100% gains in the past two years just from apple stock alone.  My more conservative index funds for retirement have been a drag on my overall portfolio, but still stable.

 

[McBokonon]

They have a focus on services, but they're still heavy into consumer devices.  Their cash position is strong, they're innovating unlike other companies, so long term they're incredibly strong...but who is immune from a global/national demand reduction?  Again, i'm not offering advice for others, but for the first time since buying my first AAPL stock, i'm going to sell some. Maybe 1/3 of my holdings.  I've had easily over 100% gains in the past two years just from apple stock alone.  My more conservative index funds for retirement have been a drag on my overall portfolio, but still stable.

Yeah, I hear you. I've managed to get to about 40/60 cash/stock during this recent run so I'm really just deciding between taking profits now or waiting for a drop to buy more. Leaning towards the former but waffling. My 401k I leave alone except i increased my contribution in March when the world was ending. 

 

[metoo]

Prolonged economic damage from the pandemic will benefit companies that have strong balance sheets and that can mitigate their damage exposure by relying on more of a digital/virtual format.  I don't know if I'd recommend selling more and waiting for a pullback--but if you have too much exposure to companies who don't have bullet proof balance sheets--it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to move out of some of your exposure there--and move it into companies that do have better balance sheets.

 I think the problem is that outside of New York and New Jersey where they have been blasted by the virus largely due to population density--many citizens outside of those areas are of the belief that the lockdowns were unnecessary or overblown.  What they are not taking into account is that re-opening the economy even in areas that are more spread out basically artificially creates the dynamic of high population density.   You have workplaces where dozens/hundreds  of customers/employees/delivery people are using the same entrances, lobbies, elevators, restrooms..etc.   For much of the country--the only exposure they have to the virus is through what they saw on tv or on the internet--and they've grown skeptical.   This lowering of the guard in areas outside of the really hard hit areas is what I worry about.   Keep in mind--that my prediction does not necessarily mean that our markets will collapse again---as our markets seem to be doing okay even with catastrophic economic metrics.    I just have my doubts that our economy is guaranteed to have a consistent upward trend from here on out.    If there is a second wave anytime near the holiday rush--- you will see a LOT of businesses that don't have deep liquidity evaporate--and coercly you will see some others dominate market share on the other side of the pandemic.  

I'm starting to feel this way as well after watching the recent videos of Colorado and Maryland.

I'm not putting any new money into stocks in my roth and taxable accounts. Really don't know what to do because we've never gone through this before.

 

[McBokonon]

I am halfway back into CYDY. The hit pieces seem to be having less effect, as do the CEO's mess-ups. The next several weeks are make it or break for the COVID thing but not for the drug overall. I don't want to miss this ride if the real (non-anecdotal) trials show even half of what we've seen so far.

 

[Don Hutson]

Someone just made a large buy of CYDY to cause it to jump to $3.00.

 

[beef]

VIX down 2.79%, TVIX down 11.51%. That's the kind of thing that claims a lot of scalps...including mine.

Been watching this slut all day and have not caved to temptation to get back in yet.  Still holding TNA while the hype is hot.  Feels like I'm waiting for the tides to turn any minute, but could be tomorrow, next week, next month....

 

[kevzilla]

could be tomorrow, next week, next month....

This was my insight on TVIX. It's not that I'm always early, it's that everybody is early. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Let me guess....FAANG up 1%, everything else down 4-5%.  

 

[lod001]

The markets apparently views those out of work as not having necessary jobs. 

Let me guess....FAANG up 1%, everything else down 4-5%.  

Actually biotech is on fire. IBB up 4.38%.

 

[djmich]

Some Cheesecake news from my daughter on Mother's Day Sales

She messaged me this from a linecook last night....

You have no idea. At one point we had over 125 tickets on Pasta, 80 on Broil, 100 on Apps, 70, on Grill/Fry, 55 on Pizza and 50 on Salads. We had 1 person per station and should've had 2 with multiple floats stocking. No prep just 2 managers. I've never seen anything like it.

- a line cook at cheesecake tonight . The number of tickets, that’s insanity


And just sent me this...

Oh my god. 35 THOUSAND in sales last night. 35. THOUSAND.

All takeout and Doordash.

$35-40K is a normal weekend night pre-covid.

ETA:  They were expecting $11k

Funny you posted this I drove by a Cheesecake Factory yesterday and there was a car line to get into the parking lot out into the street.  I was thinking WTF!!!

 

[BassNBrew]

DHT dividend now at 21%.  

 

[-OZ-]

Marvel should create a new series about General Nasdaq.  All the Avengers and their super powers combined into one super hero.  

Captain VTSAX and his pet flerken FAANG

 

[-OZ-]

DHT dividend now at 21%.  

Same (basically) as PK. 

 

[McBokonon]

Banks are getting clobbered today. Gonna start a position in BAC. If not now, when? I'm ok if I start a quarter position now and it plummets 25% so what? It's not going anywhere. Regulations actually helped here.

 

[Slapdash]

Banks are getting clobbered today. Gonna start a position in BAC. If not now, when? I'm ok if I start a quarter position now and it plummets 25% so what? It's not going anywhere. Regulations actually helped here.

I've been considering adding more, but I've been buying a lot of banking near lows already  

 

[needanap]

Regarding the Novant trials of Leronlimab.  Link

 

[McBokonon]

I've been considering adding more, but I've been buying a lot of banking near lows already  

Sold some August 19 puts for .93. I'll take what is essentially 18 buck BAC shares if it gets exercised.

 

[beef]

This was my insight on TVIX. It's not that I'm always early, it's that everybody is early. 

I'm back in at 143.25

 

[kevzilla]

This was my insight on TVIX. It's not that I'm always early, it's that everybody is early. 

I'm back in at 143.25

You're early

 

[Bossman]

I'm back in at 143.25

I used to do the tvix.

Now I sell options. Fells a lot less like gambling.

Collected $11,800 in premiums today. I won't bore everyone with the details again.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

I used to do the tvix.

Now I sell options. Fells a lot less like gambling.

Collected $11,800 in premiums today. I won't bore everyone with the details again.

I probably missed those details so feel free to share. Curious about buying / selling way OTM mini S&P contracts.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

VIX down 2.79%, TVIX down 11.51%. That's the kind of thing that claims a lot of scalps...including mine.

I think there will be some spikes in volatility in the near future once things re-open on a bigger scale--and you see the actual numbers of people infected/hospitalizations rise.   If we truly do have more testing available--the lag time between what we suspect is happening versus what will be confirmed is happening should be reduced from what was during the first wave.  I just don't know when those volatility spikes happen.   My guess is 3-6 weeks from now--but predicting this market is insane.  Hell--the numbers spiking could lead to the markets going higher because investors will factor in that it probably will force the fed to even more action. Recently--this market seems to be doing the opposite of what many would expect. 

 

[Lacey]

I used to do the tvix.

Now I sell options. Fells a lot less like gambling.

Collected $11,800 in premiums today. I won't bore everyone with the details again.

Are those cash covered calls you’re selling?  That seems like a hell of a lot of premiums in one day?  I’d be interested in the details.

 

[Lacey]

 

[Lacey]

 

[Sputnikv8]

Neat board!

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Are those cash covered calls you’re selling?  That seems like a hell of a lot of premiums in one day?  I’d be interested in the details.

 

[pecorino]

Are those cash covered calls you’re selling?  That seems like a hell of a lot of premiums in one day?  I’d be interested in the details.

Bossman likes to sell puts. Not sure if they are naked or cash secured. That’s a lot of collateral for the latter.