FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Hah fat chance I am settling for $100/share on this bud. That's a dangerous game you're playing there. What if CYDY spikes to $500/share at the open tomorrow and your chump #### got stuck selling for $100.
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Stock Thread (56 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Judge Smails
Footballguy
This. I think what is most permanent is CEO’s/CFO’s seeing what can be done with less travel expense. I don’t think that ever comes back the same. But while there is an acceptance that work from home is necessary now I believe it will swing to the other side. Leadership will think company culture can’t be formed or continued. And they want to SEE people working. There will be a backlash against people who resist coming back to the office. They will be looked at as slackers. Once there is a vaccine all bets are off. See you on Monday in the office.Todem said:
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Could be as simple as he bought shares. Plenty of shlubs on Twitter who won't #### about it, obviously only because they're long.Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
S t f u
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Oh ffs
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I mostly ignored all the onion talk. Is the goal with it pretty strictly a quick 20% and out around $10.80 (assuming $9 buyers)
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Well that's not as interesting! Although I agree that's probably the case.
Weird that Yo leaked that Patterson was going to be published in Nature last week (and was obviously wrong), feel like someone had to feed him that. I have a guess where he got that info, starts with N and ends with P. Unless he is just making crap up, which doesn't seem to be the case.
Keeping this conspiracy theory alive..
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I doubled down yesterday at $38.69. It ran from $41 to $49 in 5 days a couple of weeks ago. It was less than 1% so I foolishly ignored it rather than taking the profit. I won't make that mistake again. It's trading at 40% of it's value a year ago.caustic said:
On another note, it's one of the examples of why I don't think the market is significantly over valued. It's price has been crushed by sales drops due to the virus. You have a few sectors and stocks keeping the indexes at pretty high levels while there are stocks everywhere you look trade at 50-70% discounts.
I'm seeing a potential perfect storm where the earnings from other companies in the sector hit right around the time this dividend is paid. I'm going to take the risk that DHT doesn't drop 5%.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
That might be true about Dr. Umang Khetarpal but Dr Yo and Dr Mike Hanson seem completely genuine to me. Their type of earnestness cannot be faked. And the best reason to invest in the stock is because you believe leronlimab is potentially a miracle drug. I would not be invested in CYDY if I did not believe in the drug.
Random
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Question. When something like this comes across the news...I feel like this would be a good stock (AMAT) to try and get into at its current price of $53.70 for maybe a quick turnaround. Am I Wrong? I do have a degree in Business so I am not going in blind, but I have only very recently gotten into buying individual stocks and am very much a novice.Other than a google search I did today,I have never heard of Applied Materials or B Riley.
“Applied Materials stock price target raised to $72 from $56 at B Riley FBR”
Any comments would be very much appreciated!
“Applied Materials stock price target raised to $72 from $56 at B Riley FBR”
Any comments would be very much appreciated!
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CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
What is crazy is the markets are being led by top heavy stocks. So when there are these sell offs we are finding value. Like what I bought yesterday. There is excellent long term value in Industrials, materials, utilities, telecommunications. There is almost no value in Big Tech, Pharma and staples. The stay at home trade is over. I own PG and GIS, CLX, and JNJ BTW. Have for many moons. I am tempted to start trimming CLX and GIS (I was buying more GIS at the end of 2018 in the mid 30’s, 36 and change actually, when it sold off briskly on the so called health kick, softer earnings and not eating processed foods yada yada yada..remember that BS?) I want me some lucky Charms #####es.....bought that stock hand over fist back then. We have nearly a double now in GIS (who also owns Hagan Daz BTW and they line up around the corner in China for that stuff). Also they bought Blue Buffalo which was a brilliant aquisistion that they paid a lot for. But I loved it because people feed their pets better than themselves and pay a premium for dog and cat food. So some rebalancing is going to happen within my large cap sleeve.BassNBrew said:
And let’s not forget Big Oil. The wicked step child in this downturn. XOM, CVX are at super value levels. I have suggested many times, using PEO as a play on big oil. It is more diversified than having to pick a big oil stock and pays an outstanding dividend. It is trading at a huge discount in relation to it’s NAV (Net Asset Value) (it has popped over 35% since I recommend it back in March).
Some of us are not getting anything....and I get it. So we will keep paying our taxes to help those less fortunate.caustic said:CNBC reporting that the WH is becoming increasingly supportive of another round of stimulus checks.
I love TAP. I can’t stand BUD’s management. Company is not well run anymore since that Inbev merger. TAP is the beer play in my book. Bought it yesterday and it is cheap, with a great dividend. Great long term hold.caustic said:
My goal is to see $13. That will be a nice trade. And it can easily get their in a big rally intra-day as the openings keep rilling out around the country and the videos of crowded restaurants and waits spur positive sentiment of the “pent up” demand to go out and eat again. This is a pure momentum play stock. Strap in boys!
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here are my comments, take them for what they are worth
If you have never heard of a company, you should probably do some research on them before putting money into them.
If you are gambling on a short term pop, you missed it, as it was up ~10% from yesterday.
I've never heard of B Riley myself, but there are more financial services firms out there than I'd care to count, and any of them can adjust their target prices.
Applied Materials is a solid company, but not really my favorite. Is it possible the stock climbs another 5, 10, 15% in the next few weeks? Sure, but you may want to monitor the news and this situation with China as that will most certainly have an impact on semi's.
Sure, but that took 23 years. OK, I guess.
But the way Bossman and I see it, if you can sell puts and generate even just a 10% return on your principal in one month (he's getting much more than that, mind you), then our $10000 in 1997 would have grown to 12 million in 75 months, more or less. We like massive returns that don't take decades.
I'd subscribe to your newsletter, except I know that selling naked puts works....until it doesn't.
Jayrok
Footballguy
I see it this way as well. Dr. Yo is passionate (at least seems) about the science and seems like he genuinely loves to create and present his animations as part of his explanation of how the drug works. I imagine he does have shares but I believe he genuinely believes in this drug.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Does DFS appear to be at a good price around 38?
I didnt look at it when it was 35 yesterday otherwise would have bought some
Todem
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
New article about Samantha Mottet. It's the second story from the top on the front page of the CBN website.
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Bossman
Footballguy
Selling Options Lesson #131
Selling Covered Calls
I'm still very new to this so please don't take this as gospel. Just expressing what I THINK I understand ... and my common sense.
Now that everyone is proficient at selling Puts
... lets talk selling Covered Calls (most of you know this but some are new to it)
Just like selling Puts, you collect a premium up front ... but one difference is that you need to own the stonk to sell a covered call .. vs. selling a Put where you don't.
Selling a covered call, you're selling someone the option to buy your stonks at the strike price. They pay you for this option up front (premium).
If the stonk is above strike price at strike date, you're selling them the stock. If stonk price is below strike price at strike date, your keeping the stock.
THEY win if the stonk is above strike price since they now are buying the stonk for less than it's worth.
Either way you keep the premium ... but preferably, you want the premium AND keep the stonks. So you are rooting for the stonk to NOT TANK ... but stay below strike price.
Example;
In the latest episode of Bossman vs. Wall Street, ... Boss purchased 1000 shares of NERV @ $12.50
Same day, Sold 10 6/19 $17.50 covered calls for $3.40. Paid me $3400 (1000 shares x $3.40)
So if NERV stays below $17.50 until 6/19, I keep the stonks and the $3400 premium.
If NERV is above $17.50 on 6/19, I'm obligated to sell the stock for $17.50 ... so I made $5 a share over purchase price ($5000) and I keep the $3400 premium = $8400
Win / Win you say? ... not so fast. Here's the risk;
Should NERV fall to less than $9.10 a share, the loss in stonk value would offset the premium that I was paid ($12.50 less $3.40)
Here's where I would need to make a decision ... If the stock is falling hard before strike date, I may want to cover my short and take my lumps early ... limiting losses.
... or I could ride it out, hope the stock levels off or recovers. So again, not a "set and forget" play.
Also consider, in this scenario, the person buying my $17.50 covered calls for $3.40 would need the stonk price to be at $20.90 to make a profit.
Yes, people out there are betting LOTS OF MONEY that NERV will be above $20.90 5 weeks from now.
Ideal scenario for the covered call seller (Bossman) would be for the stonk price to stays in the same ballpark, $10 to $17 in this case, option expires, and he sells the covered calls again next month ... another $3400? .... and the month after, another $3400? ... and again, another $3400? .... rinse, repeat.
Each month he does this, his cost basis drops by the amount of premium he collects. Initial $12,500 investment is now a cost basis of $9100 ($12500 less $3400). Another month $5700, another $2300. Assuming it's still paying $3400 each time (not likely tho)
Keep in mind, this is an EXTREME scenario. These premiums are typically MUCH less and there is no rhyme or reason for NERV options to be trading so high.
Depending on how many times he can do this before the stonk hits strike price and gets called away ... or tanks, could easily make 2, 3 or 4x the initial investment.
Also, you're not locked in as you have the option to cover and get out at any time.
Selling Covered Calls
I'm still very new to this so please don't take this as gospel. Just expressing what I THINK I understand ... and my common sense.
Now that everyone is proficient at selling Puts
... lets talk selling Covered Calls (most of you know this but some are new to it)Just like selling Puts, you collect a premium up front ... but one difference is that you need to own the stonk to sell a covered call .. vs. selling a Put where you don't.
Selling a covered call, you're selling someone the option to buy your stonks at the strike price. They pay you for this option up front (premium).
If the stonk is above strike price at strike date, you're selling them the stock. If stonk price is below strike price at strike date, your keeping the stock.
THEY win if the stonk is above strike price since they now are buying the stonk for less than it's worth.
Either way you keep the premium ... but preferably, you want the premium AND keep the stonks. So you are rooting for the stonk to NOT TANK ... but stay below strike price.
Example;
In the latest episode of Bossman vs. Wall Street, ... Boss purchased 1000 shares of NERV @ $12.50
Same day, Sold 10 6/19 $17.50 covered calls for $3.40. Paid me $3400 (1000 shares x $3.40)
So if NERV stays below $17.50 until 6/19, I keep the stonks and the $3400 premium.
If NERV is above $17.50 on 6/19, I'm obligated to sell the stock for $17.50 ... so I made $5 a share over purchase price ($5000) and I keep the $3400 premium = $8400
Win / Win you say? ... not so fast. Here's the risk;
Should NERV fall to less than $9.10 a share, the loss in stonk value would offset the premium that I was paid ($12.50 less $3.40)
Here's where I would need to make a decision ... If the stock is falling hard before strike date, I may want to cover my short and take my lumps early ... limiting losses.
... or I could ride it out, hope the stock levels off or recovers. So again, not a "set and forget" play.
Also consider, in this scenario, the person buying my $17.50 covered calls for $3.40 would need the stonk price to be at $20.90 to make a profit.
Yes, people out there are betting LOTS OF MONEY that NERV will be above $20.90 5 weeks from now.
Ideal scenario for the covered call seller (Bossman) would be for the stonk price to stays in the same ballpark, $10 to $17 in this case, option expires, and he sells the covered calls again next month ... another $3400? .... and the month after, another $3400? ... and again, another $3400? .... rinse, repeat.
Each month he does this, his cost basis drops by the amount of premium he collects. Initial $12,500 investment is now a cost basis of $9100 ($12500 less $3400). Another month $5700, another $2300. Assuming it's still paying $3400 each time (not likely tho)
Keep in mind, this is an EXTREME scenario. These premiums are typically MUCH less and there is no rhyme or reason for NERV options to be trading so high.
Depending on how many times he can do this before the stonk hits strike price and gets called away ... or tanks, could easily make 2, 3 or 4x the initial investment.
Also, you're not locked in as you have the option to cover and get out at any time.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So what's the benefit to the other person? Why dont they just buy the stock at the current price?Selling Options Lesson #131
Selling Covered Calls
I'm still very new to this so please don't take this as gospel. Just expressing what I THINK I understand ... and my common sense.
Now that everyone is proficient at selling Puts
Just like selling Puts, you collect a premium up front ... but one difference is that you need to own the stonk to sell a covered call .. vs. selling a Put where you don't.
Selling a covered call, you're selling someone the option to buy your stonks at the strike price. They pay you for this option up front (premium).
If the stonk is above strike price at strike date, you're selling them the stock. If stonk price is below strike price at strike date, your keeping the stock.
THEY win if the stonk is above strike price since they now are buying the stonk for less than it's worth.
Either way you keep the premium ... but preferably, you want the premium AND keep the stonks. So you are rooting for the stonk to NOT TANK ... but stay below strike price.
Example;
In the latest episode of Bossman vs. Wall Street, ... Boss purchased 1000 shares of NERV @ $12.50
Same day, Sold 10 6/19 $17.50 covered calls for $3.40. Paid me $3400 (1000 shares x $3.40)
So if NERV stays below $17.50 until 6/19, I keep the stonks and the $3400 premium.
If NERV is above $17.50 on 6/19, I'm obligated to sell the stock for $17.50 ... so I made $5 a share over purchase price ($5000) and I keep the $3400 premium = $8400
Win / Win you say? ... not so fast. Here's the risk;
Should NERV fall to less than $9.10 a share, the loss in stonk value would offset the premium that I was paid ($12.50 less $3.40)
Here's where I would need to make a decision ... If the stock is falling hard before strike date, I may want to cover my short and take my lumps early ... limiting losses.
... or I could ride it out, hope the stock levels off or recovers. So again, not a "set and forget" play.
Also consider, in this scenario, the person buying my $17.50 covered calls for $3.40 would need the stonk price to be at $20.90 to make a profit.
Yes, people out there are betting LOTS OF MONEY that NERV will be above $20.90 5 weeks from now.
Ideal scenario for the covered call seller (Bossman) would be for the stonk price to stays in the same ballpark, $10 to $17 in this case, option expires, and he sells the covered calls again next month ... another $3400? .... and the month after, another $3400? ... and again, another $3400? .... rinse, repeat.
Each month he does this, his cost basis drops by the amount of premium he collects. Initial $12,500 investment is now a cost basis of $9100 ($12500 less $3400). Another month $5700, another $2300. Assuming it's still paying $3400 each time (not likely tho)
Keep in mind, this is an EXTREME scenario. These premiums are typically MUCH less and there is no rhyme or reason for NERV options to be trading so high.
Depending on how many times he can do this before the stonk hits strike price and gets called away ... or tanks, could easily make 2, 3 or 4x the initial investment.
Also, you're not locked in as you have the option to cover and get out at any time.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
There is a reason that the options for NERV are trading with such high premiums, that is for sure. I think you found a good investment but there is risk of a large movement either direction.Selling Options Lesson #131
Selling Covered Calls
I'm still very new to this so please don't take this as gospel. Just expressing what I THINK I understand ... and my common sense.
Now that everyone is proficient at selling Puts
Just like selling Puts, you collect a premium up front ... but one difference is that you need to own the stonk to sell a covered call .. vs. selling a Put where you don't.
Selling a covered call, you're selling someone the option to buy your stonks at the strike price. They pay you for this option up front (premium).
If the stonk is above strike price at strike date, you're selling them the stock. If stonk price is below strike price at strike date, your keeping the stock.
THEY win if the stonk is above strike price since they now are buying the stonk for less than it's worth.
Either way you keep the premium ... but preferably, you want the premium AND keep the stonks. So you are rooting for the stonk to NOT TANK ... but stay below strike price.
Example;
In the latest episode of Bossman vs. Wall Street, ... Boss purchased 1000 shares of NERV @ $12.50
Same day, Sold 10 6/19 $17.50 covered calls for $3.40. Paid me $3400 (1000 shares x $3.40)
So if NERV stays below $17.50 until 6/19, I keep the stonks and the $3400 premium.
If NERV is above $17.50 on 6/19, I'm obligated to sell the stock for $17.50 ... so I made $5 a share over purchase price ($5000) and I keep the $3400 premium = $8400
Win / Win you say? ... not so fast. Here's the risk;
Should NERV fall to less than $9.10 a share, the loss in stonk value would offset the premium that I was paid ($12.50 less $3.40)
Here's where I would need to make a decision ... If the stock is falling hard before strike date, I may want to cover my short and take my lumps early ... limiting losses.
... or I could ride it out, hope the stock levels off or recovers. So again, not a "set and forget" play.
Also consider, in this scenario, the person buying my $17.50 covered calls for $3.40 would need the stonk price to be at $20.90 to make a profit.
Yes, people out there are betting LOTS OF MONEY that NERV will be above $20.90 5 weeks from now.
Ideal scenario for the covered call seller (Bossman) would be for the stonk price to stays in the same ballpark, $10 to $17 in this case, option expires, and he sells the covered calls again next month ... another $3400? .... and the month after, another $3400? ... and again, another $3400? .... rinse, repeat.
Each month he does this, his cost basis drops by the amount of premium he collects. Initial $12,500 investment is now a cost basis of $9100 ($12500 less $3400). Another month $5700, another $2300. Assuming it's still paying $3400 each time (not likely tho)
Keep in mind, this is an EXTREME scenario. These premiums are typically MUCH less and there is no rhyme or reason for NERV options to be trading so high.
Depending on how many times he can do this before the stonk hits strike price and gets called away ... or tanks, could easily make 2, 3 or 4x the initial investment.
Also, you're not locked in as you have the option to cover and get out at any time.
I was watching but was really busy in the morning. That turn around at 10ish was ridiculous. I still don’t know why.
sporthenry
Footballguy
This is mostly just noise. Price updates are usually just the stock has moved but they want to keep their buy/sell/hold recommendation so they update the price. Usually, there has to be something like 15-20% upside to the price target for a buy so if the stock rallies too much, they need to update it.
The bigger moves are usually the result of an upgrade or downgrade. Also, certain firms and more specifically, certain analysts will move stocks more. GS is GS so they get more press. GS/MS are known for their tech practices. And if JPM's Tusa ever turns bullish on GE, you could see a double that day. The biggest reactions to a rec change would be a double upgrade or double downgrade: from buy to sell or sell to buy and skipping past hold. Also, there is usually a bias to be long, especially at the investment banks. Most analysts rely on corporate access and banks derive money from other services so there is an implicit expectation that they won't be super negative albeit, there is some independency. You can usually get a quick pop on a recommendation change but that is a crowded trade.
tl/dr: don't rely on analyst price changes, especially if you're looking for a quick buck.
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Bossman
Footballguy
Great question.
The person paying $3.40 to buy $17.50 calls are betting the stock will be above $20.90 at strike date.
They are only betting $3.40 vs buying the stonk for $12.50 ... so their initial investment is much less than buying the stock outright.
If it goes to $32.50 a share by 6/19 .... they invested $3.40 to make $15 ($32.50 less $17.50)
... but yeah, seems like a dumb play to me to be on that side of this deal.
identikit
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
TAP is trading pretty close to its 52 week low and not like it was going down heading into the pandemic. I just bought a little as well and might buy more.
Side note. Already hit 10% on BLMN since I kept buying when it was dropping to get a cost basis of 9.
Side note. Already hit 10% on BLMN since I kept buying when it was dropping to get a cost basis of 9.
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The underlying stock does not even need to go to $20.90 per share. All it needs to do is rise quickly. If a stock goes up 10%, the near-the-money call options roughly double (this is my own rule of thumb and there is much variability, but I've found it to be a good rough gauge). So it is not necessarily true that the buyer of the call option believes the stock will get to that strike price by expiration but he does think the stock will rise and probably fast. A bought call option as described almost certainly would be resold (for a profit or a loss) before the expiration date.
On selling covered calls: I have soured to this especially lately. With such volatility in the markets, it is a good thing to be able to exit a position quickly. If you sell a covered call for one month out, sure you keep the premium. But if the stock tanks, you need to re-buy that call before you can sell the underlying. And if you get a pop in the stock price, you cannot sell and lock in that profit. Selling covered calls is the most conservative options strategy so there is a time and a place for it, but these are times where agility is important so I don't recommend selling covered calls as strongly as I would in a tepid market.
Bossman
Footballguy
Very true. Premiums don't pay like this unless something big is about to break.
Research as I may, hard to find any major negative news on NERV.
What I do find is that they are due to put our a report on drug study findings ... could be bad news, could be great news.
... yet so called "experts" have upgraded NERV target to $23 a share. Not sure why. News leaked?
Maybe someone else in here can Sherlock Holmes this thing and make some sense of it.
djmich
Footballguy
Sorrento claims it has COVID-19 cure
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3575064-sorrento-claims-covidminus-19-cure
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3575064-sorrento-claims-covidminus-19-cure
Bossman
Footballguy
Great point and one that I don't consider.
I assume many option traders are "in and out" several times before it ever gets to strike date.
I do love the fact that I'm able to take advantage of these type of trades.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Is this a strictly BLMN crowd or is anyone looking CAKE?
And, to the question of why people buy call options, there is a one word answer: leverage. If I invest $1000 in NERV and it goes up 10%, I'm now at $1100. If I buy $1000 of call options in NERV and it goes up 10%, I'm at $2000. Higher risk, much higher reward, massive leverage.
