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Warrior said:
🙄 If you can't tell the difference between this situation and an actual depression, your perspective is seriously out of whack. 
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You are the captain of insulting people without clarifying yourself at all.  If you think this upcoming depression is different than the depression of the 1930's, then explain why.  Otherwise, you are just rude without any purpose or substance.

 
Ksquared said:
I agree.  The stimulus was needed, but it is not a free ride.  There will be long term ramifications to the dollar and our standard of living.  But now we have to do it again, what is the exit strategy?  How long can the govt just pay people to not produce anything.  I just think that after the "new" normal is started, there will be much that will not be normal, in our lives or in the economy.
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I would think everyone agrees.

So, what should be done then?   

At some point they HAVE to open everything up with no restrictions.  I am just not sure the cutoff point where that is a necessity.  And by everything I mean everything, including sporting event crowds, concerts, theme parks.....

 
Opening back up is not my concern, what is the exit strategy to get people back to work and producing things is my concern.  We are paying more for people to not work than they would have been receiving when they were working.  How is that supposed to stop, a certain party just tried to increase the amounts further and for longer.  We have an election in November, so I have little faith what is best for the country or economy will actually occur.  What happens in January next year?  How are the people going to be weened off this money? I still think the service sector will be a shell of itself (25% of what it was) for the next 3-4 years unless we get a vaccine that stops this thing.  Where are all those workers going to go to work, especially as automation has started to make serious inroad in certain businesses.

I have not seen it discussed in this thread, but I envision a significant increase in robotic/non-human factories, kiosks, etc which will further make it difficult to get the unemployed jobs.  But if we keep paying people more than they will make working, we will be celebrating the day when we only have 10% unemployment.

 
Ksquared said:
Opening back up is not my concern, what is the exit strategy to get people back to work and producing things is my concern.  We are paying more for people to not work than they would have been receiving when they were working.  How is that supposed to stop, a certain party just tried to increase the amounts further and for longer.  We have an election in November, so I have little faith what is best for the country or economy will actually occur.  What happens in January next year?  How are the people going to be weened off this money? I still think the service sector will be a shell of itself (25% of what it was) for the next 3-4 years unless we get a vaccine that stops this thing.  Where are all those workers going to go to work, especially as automation has started to make serious inroad in certain businesses.

I have not seen it discussed in this thread, but I envision a significant increase in robotic/non-human factories, kiosks, etc which will further make it difficult to get the unemployed jobs.  But if we keep paying people more than they will make working, we will be celebrating the day when we only have 10% unemployment.
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We simply have to stop paying the extra unemployment benefits 

 
Ksquared said:
Opening back up is not my concern, what is the exit strategy to get people back to work and producing things is my concern.  We are paying more for people to not work than they would have been receiving when they were working.  How is that supposed to stop, a certain party just tried to increase the amounts further and for longer.  We have an election in November, so I have little faith what is best for the country or economy will actually occur.  What happens in January next year?  How are the people going to be weened off this money? I still think the service sector will be a shell of itself (25% of what it was) for the next 3-4 years unless we get a vaccine that stops this thing.  Where are all those workers going to go to work, especially as automation has started to make serious inroad in certain businesses.

I have not seen it discussed in this thread, but I envision a significant increase in robotic/non-human factories, kiosks, etc which will further make it difficult to get the unemployed jobs.  But if we keep paying people more than they will make working, we will be celebrating the day when we only have 10% unemployment.
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I bet you are a blast at parties.

 
Don't Noonan said:
We simply have to stop paying the extra unemployment benefits 
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Oh I agree, but when was the last time that we had politicians that actually cut back on a benefit like this.  In an election year to boot, I just see the politicians using this to show how much they care and are great leaders simply to buy votes for the election.   Because when (if) they remove these supplementary payments then the real economic hardship will hit a whole ton of the population.  But we continue to throw trillions around like it is candy and will have put ourselves in a spot a year from now where we cannot continue to go in debt another 3-5 trillion and have the dollar worth anything. But I have a feeling the people in the country will badly need it.  I have become a little doom and gloom about our future after seeing the gleefulness that the House passed their newest stimulus bill.  Completely devoid of any economic understanding.

 
matuski said:
I bet you are a blast at parties.
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No, but as I just mentioned in my response above "I have become a little doom and gloom about our future after seeing the gleefulness that the House passed their newest stimulus bill.  Completely devoid of any economic understanding."  Don't let me bring you down if your in a good place.  By tomorrow I will probably much more upbeat.

 
Hey, folks. Been around these boards for a while now and just decided to jump in the water. First off, thanks to everyone in this forum for your insight and knowledge (special shout-out to Chet and Todem, from my personal portfolio). 

I’ve got about $5k in holdings between apple, google, Facebook and Microsoft. I’ve had them for a while now and was wondering if you think they have more or less hit their apex in value/upside. I was thinking about selling them and using the cash to play some of the companies mentioned here (most specifically, from Todem’s list). Good idea to go after some more potential gains, or just stick with the ‘proven winners’ I have?

FYI - mid 40’s and the majority of my retirement will (hopefully) be funded via my 401(k), so I’m not completely relying on these stocks. Thanks, gang!!!

 
bp1 said:
Hey, folks. Been around these boards for a while now and just decided to jump in the water. First off, thanks to everyone in this forum for your insight and knowledge (special shout-out to Chet and Todem, from my personal portfolio). 

I’ve got about $5k in holdings between apple, google, Facebook and Microsoft. I’ve had them for a while now and was wondering if you think they have more or less hit their apex in value/upside. I was thinking about selling them and using the cash to play some of the companies mentioned here (most specifically, from Todem’s list). Good idea to go after some more potential gains, or just stick with the ‘proven winners’ I have?

FYI - mid 40’s and the majority of my retirement will (hopefully) be funded via my 401(k), so I’m not completely relying on these stocks. Thanks, gang!!!
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If it were me I would just stick with those high quality names.  I bought 3 of those 4 stocks this past week.

 
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Ksquared said:
No, but as I just mentioned in my response above "I have become a little doom and gloom about our future after seeing the gleefulness that the House passed their newest stimulus bill.  Completely devoid of any economic understanding."  Don't let me bring you down if your in a good place.  By tomorrow I will probably much more upbeat.
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Don’t let yourself get too down over it, IMO. I think your assessment of the bill is far more critical than most economists’.

 
Ksquared said:
Oh I agree, but when was the last time that we had politicians that actually cut back on a benefit like this.  In an election year to boot, I just see the politicians using this to show how much they care and are great leaders simply to buy votes for the election.   Because when (if) they remove these supplementary payments then the real economic hardship will hit a whole ton of the population.  But we continue to throw trillions around like it is candy and will have put ourselves in a spot a year from now where we cannot continue to go in debt another 3-5 trillion and have the dollar worth anything. But I have a feeling the people in the country will badly need it.  I have become a little doom and gloom about our future after seeing the gleefulness that the House passed their newest stimulus bill.  Completely devoid of any economic understanding.
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Not really true at all.  Retracting now could actually cause the depression you are scared of.  This is probably a better topic for a different thread though.  Don't want to muck up this thread. Have a good weekend man.

 
pecorino said:
This. Maybe diversify when you get more principal but why sell the highest quality names? I’m low on Facebook but I think that’s just me. 
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I guess my thought was (and I should have mentioned it in my original post) — I’ve had these for a little while and have probably doubled my initial investment (give or take).  I recall a few folks mentioning that a good strategy could be to sell some of them to get my cost basis to $0 on what’s left. That’s where the question stemmed from — is there more upside value in some of Todem’s list (for example) versus a steady uptick in what I currently have? Thx. 

 
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ghostguy123 said:
It's a shame that most peoples retirements are based on non guarantees such as 401k and 403bs. It's also a shame how much influence our wonderful government has on this stuff.
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Given the state of a lot of pensions, particularly now after this drop, those are anythingg but guaranteed.

We're going to see a lot of public pensions default down the pike here.

 
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Sand said:
Given the state of a lot of pensions, particularly now after this drop, those are anythingg but guaranteed.

We're going to see a lot of public pensions default down the pike here.
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Insurance companies are also going to struggle with low treasury yields and mortgage rates at all time lows. 

 
I have noted this before, but the vast majority of my $$ is just in boring "total market" or "S&P 500" funds with low expense ratios. So, in my "fun money" accounts I try to take more risky swings (CYDY, Tankers, Puts, etc.). 

Recently have been trying to do some research on the cannabis market. Listened to this podcast yesterday with the CEO of $AYRSF (trades OTC). Have to admit I came away impressed. Took a look through the financials and they seem solid. Have a small investment in them right now, but am going to try to increase it over the next week or so. Trades super thin so it's a bit annoying to get in & out of, but might just stash some for the long hall and not sweat it. 

 
Well I got a decent night sleep and feel a little better, got some of the fire to attack life going forward.  Since there is so much good information provided to make decisions about our investments, I will let you know why I am seeing a lot more problems than most see and it think it is important as to how we look at investing in near term and long term.

I am a civil engineer that designs a lot of public works projects for small rural communities (20,000 population and smaller).  USDA has a "rural development" program to provide low interest loans/grants to rural communities for public utility projects.  I am in the middle of finalizing the financing with USDA on a $11 M grant/loan for a major water pipeline upgrade project.  They informed me this project may be one of the last for a while due to USDA's guidance that communities are to expect a drop in revenue from 25% to 75% for at least the next year.  And to expect water, sewer, and electrical payments to be paid on a 50% basis for the next 2 years (there are set costs that the systems cannot function without).  Thus the repayment financing calculations do not work out.  There is a likely hood that many communities will have to declare bankruptcy in the next two years, especially when their pension requirements get put into the mix.

I know in California one of the biggest draws on the City budgets is payments for pensions and the courts have ruled during previous community bankruptcy proceedings (Stockton) that pensions get paid  before anything else.  If any community drops 50% let alone 75% of revenue over the next two years, there will be little to nothing left for civil services including utilities.  Not trying to raise fears, but want others to understand some of the not obvious boots that are possible/likely to fall in the next two years.

 
Anyone else think ford is a good buy?

Government won't let them fail and they are about to restart production

 
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rascal said:
Anyone else think ford is a good buy?

Government won't let them fail and they are about to restart production
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I am intrigued by the electric lineup they are moving toward, but don't have terribly strong feelings. I would only caution thinking "well the government won't let them fail" -- that may be true (I generally think it is) but it's certainly possible to have a bailout that screws shareholders. 

 
rascal said:
Anyone else think ford is a good buy?

Government won't let them fail and they are about to restart production
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They weren’t a good buy in the Before Times and they won’t be now. Just a dead stock. I don’t like any auto stocks anyway but gun to my head to pick one, Ford would be way at the bottom of my list.

 
rascal said:
Anyone else think ford is a good buy?

Government won't let them fail and they are about to restart production
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There is a different between a company failing and the stock being worth anything. Even companies that fail don't necessarily go away. While this logic probably puts a floor on companies like this, at least until they actually file, I would caution against using that logic to make any investment thesis. Does the government care if Ford trades at $5, $4, $3, $2, or $1? The government allowed GM to fail, but did so in an orderly way so that it could continue to operate. The largest utility in California is currently 'bankrupt' but the electric is still on. That may be a poor example since the equity will be worth something post-emergence. But my point being, bankruptcy is this boogeyman term but unless you liquidate like Toys R Us, which won't happen to most of these companies. I don't think anyone is saying Ford or Boeing don't provide any economic benefit but is there enough value left over after the debt to justify current price? I'd just caution looking at a stock down 45%, investing because of some inherent government support when the equity is still worth $20 billion. 

I'm not close enough to the OEMs but I don't think it's so much when they restart production as when they restart sales. Most of my focus has been on the casinos, restaurants, etc that are shut down. But they seem like they could rebound a lot faster once they open than someone going out and spending $20k on a new car in the middle of a recession. What do you think is more likely to happen? People drop their $1,200 stimulus on blooming onions and slot machines or a down payment on a car?

 
Ksquared said:
Well I got a decent night sleep and feel a little better, got some of the fire to attack life going forward.  Since there is so much good information provided to make decisions about our investments, I will let you know why I am seeing a lot more problems than most see and it think it is important as to how we look at investing in near term and long term.

I am a civil engineer that designs a lot of public works projects for small rural communities (20,000 population and smaller).  USDA has a "rural development" program to provide low interest loans/grants to rural communities for public utility projects.  I am in the middle of finalizing the financing with USDA on a $11 M grant/loan for a major water pipeline upgrade project.  They informed me this project may be one of the last for a while due to USDA's guidance that communities are to expect a drop in revenue from 25% to 75% for at least the next year.  And to expect water, sewer, and electrical payments to be paid on a 50% basis for the next 2 years (there are set costs that the systems cannot function without).  Thus the repayment financing calculations do not work out.  There is a likely hood that many communities will have to declare bankruptcy in the next two years, especially when their pension requirements get put into the mix.

I know in California one of the biggest draws on the City budgets is payments for pensions and the courts have ruled during previous community bankruptcy proceedings (Stockton) that pensions get paid  before anything else.  If any community drops 50% let alone 75% of revenue over the next two years, there will be little to nothing left for civil services including utilities.  Not trying to raise fears, but want others to understand some of the not obvious boots that are possible/likely to fall in the next two years.
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I often wonder why government continues to pay pensions. Almost no private companies pay pensions anymore.

It's all retirement plan 401k stuff now. Costs the company nothing once the employee has retired. 

Is the pension necessary to lure employees? Would people not work for the water department or post office if they had a 401k instead of a pension?

A pension had it's place 50 years ago I suppose. ... but with people able to work longer to maximize pension, and now living longer, pensions are crippling budgets.

 
sporthenry said:
There is a different between a company failing and the stock being worth anything. Even companies that fail don't necessarily go away. While this logic probably puts a floor on companies like this, at least until they actually file, I would caution against using that logic to make any investment thesis. Does the government care if Ford trades at $5, $4, $3, $2, or $1? The government allowed GM to fail, but did so in an orderly way so that it could continue to operate. The largest utility in California is currently 'bankrupt' but the electric is still on. That may be a poor example since the equity will be worth something post-emergence. But my point being, bankruptcy is this boogeyman term but unless you liquidate like Toys R Us, which won't happen to most of these companies. I don't think anyone is saying Ford or Boeing don't provide any economic benefit but is there enough value left over after the debt to justify current price? I'd just caution looking at a stock down 45%, investing because of some inherent government support when the equity is still worth $20 billion. 

I'm not close enough to the OEMs but I don't think it's so much when they restart production as when they restart sales. Most of my focus has been on the casinos, restaurants, etc that are shut down. But they seem like they could rebound a lot faster once they open than someone going out and spending $20k on a new car in the middle of a recession. What do you think is more likely to happen? People drop their $1,200 stimulus on blooming onions and slot machines or a down payment on a car?
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What about a blooming onion car with a slot machine in it?

 
Our Bloomin COO bought another 10K shares.  He’s now holding 71K shares, 35k of which recently purchased.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Either there are a LOT of fbg's tailing @Bossman, or a lot of other people think this is a really good play too.

My link
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Hey man, I totally know what I’m looking at and can interpret it and everything, big time, probably better than anyone, but do you mind explaining what that is and how to read it to the dummies here in the thread?

 
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Just spent 15 minutes on $CYDY twitter.  Wow.  It’s the same 4 accounts tweeting back and forth at each other bearish nonsense.  It’s painfuly Obvious it’s a paid operation.

Main Offical looking account: CYDY is engaged in fraud

account 1: absolutely right.  I’m glad you are here to push this forward.

account 2: I don’t understand how they aren’t all in jail.  They are all a bunch of convicted fellons.

account 3: Whatever you do , continue exposing this despicable $CYDY fraud .. why is no one stepping up to the plate except you !!

And it’s literaly the same thing every day.  

 
The Ref said:
Just spent 15 minutes on $CYDY twitter.  Wow.  It’s the same 4 accounts tweeting back and forth at each other bearish nonsense.  It’s painfuly Obvious it’s a paid operation.

Main Offical looking account: CYDY is engaged in fraud

account 1: absolutely right.  I’m glad you are here to push this forward.

account 2: I don’t understand how they aren’t all in jail.  They are all a bunch of convicted fellons.

account 3: Whatever you do , continue exposing this despicable $CYDY fraud .. why is no one stepping up to the plate except you !!

And it’s literaly the same thing every day.  
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OTC world. Need to get listed on NASDAQ.

 
rascal said:
It's at 50% of its pre-covid price?
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No demand and junk status downgrade will do that (might also be downgraded again). 

I just cannot imagine looking at Ford and thinking “wow, that company is a bargain and I’d really like to own it right now.” I look at and think “wow, I wonder if those shareholders are going to end up like GM’s shareholders.”

:shrug:

 
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rascal said:
It's at 50% of its pre-covid price?
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I’m having a look at my basket of stonks I want I own for long term investing.  Do we have a “@Todem 2.0 “ list going or is it the same list?

I think MGM is staying on my list.  BLMN feels like it will be more of a trading vehicle but it’s still on my list.  DFS is on the list for sure.

im having doubts about CCL and cruise lines in general.... I think they make the list but will take a much longer timeframe for bounceback then I first thought.  In addition I don’t think we will see doubles from here for a long time with all the debt and new shares issued.

BA I was never a fan of.

what else am I missing?  Where are the doubles at?

 
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McBokonon said:
Hey man, I totally know what I’m looking at and can interpret it and everything, big time, probably better than anyone, but do you mind explaining what that is and how to read it to the dummies here in the thread?
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Huge outlier volume on 6/19 $5 NERV puts on Friday.  Seems lots of folks have started selling those puts.

 
Watched Patterson on with Dr Yo tonight.  Seems very confident the trials are going well.  Even though he doesn't know exactly which patients have been given leronlimab as the trial is double blinded, he can tell by the indicators that he is watching and the immunological markers that are improving, that he feels leronlimab is driving the good results .  Expects to be able to share results mid June.  

Also seems confident that the peer reviews on his manuscript are going to happen before the two month timeframe that it would usually take.  Acted like it could even be this week.

All in all it was a good showing by Patterson so hopefully we start getting some momentum soon.

 
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McBokonon said:
Doesn’t that mean they’re also finding buyers?
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For sure, but that's true of any stock transaction.  Price staying high means people are buying at the ask, not the bid.

Also I would imagine most buyers are just hoping to resell after the stock moves closer to strike while most sellers are likely planning to hold to/near expiration.

 
TripItUp said:
Anybody thinking about cashing DKNG gains?
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One has nothing to do with the other but I’ll say it anyway, Draftkings has a higher market cap than MGM, Wynn and CZR.  I mean they all have many locations and an online app too, plus you get real estate and actual gaming.  Guess you also get the fixed expenses to go with it as well.

 
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