Shula-holic
Footballguy
Have a buddy who is in PK, was looking at it awhile back as well. 20% in a day is a monster. I'd like to get DIS as a long term hold, hope I get a sub 100 shot again.
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Stock Thread (28 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Todem
Footballguy
You probably will. When the fundamentals meet the road on that stock. I am a long term bull on DIS......but it is an expensive stock right now based on the massive amount of earnings damage they are incurring each day they are closed. And even when they start lower capacity re-openings.....it will take a lot of time to get back to the type of earnings people seem to be pricing into the stock. It is simply overpriced right now based on reality.
Do you think that even though Q2 earnings expectations are built in, they will be a pretty big catalyst? I didn’t expect Q1 earnings to matter much at all just because it was really only 2 weeks of try impact, but there was a lot of optimism that came from some good earnings even if the company withdrew the rest of their 2020 estimates. Maybe that was baked into the overall market only looking at good news but it sure seems like some YoY Q2 numbers are going to be downright horrific.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Agreed that it is overpriced on 2020 earnings but not necessarily on 2021 earnings assuming parks are opened again. I think a lot of folks expect horrid 2nd quarter numbers and will look past it if things look to be getting back to normal.
Maybe. Our 401ks that are basically almost index funds will be doing well, but I’m barely up on my individual stocks. I’ve beaten the market pretty handily the last couple weeks so I assume that’s why a lot of my stocks went nowhere today. ETSY is one that was up a couple % at the start and is down 8% now. Almost like online retail is going to stop now that stores are opening. All my stocks that had held up well and are close to or above all time highs definitely had some profit taking today.There has got to be some session end selling here pushing indexes lower, no? And please, let's get TTD down to like 200
I do have some cash to put to use and I missed the onion casino thing. Man, I wish I had managed my money better in my 20s and 30s (and my wife
), I could be retired right now in my late 40s and having fun with all these moves. I love coming in here and reading this but it sure seems like I’m always in a meeting or actually working damn it all. I can’t wait to be done with that crap!
Todem
Footballguy
I am not having a high confidence level that 2021 will be business as usual for Disney. It is simply my opinion and part of speculating. Again...long term I am a DIS bull. The question was will he have another chance to get back in under 100.
I say yes....he will.
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Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Agreed but business as usual meant DIS trading around $140-$145. Most likely they are not business as usual for 2021 so $100-$125 is a reasonable range. I could definitely see it get back under $100 on a pullback as well.
TripItUp
Footballguy
correct, this is not an all or nothing for many stocks...there can be a middle ground for the Disneys of the world.
Capella
Footballguy
What will happen for Disney to drop that far again? Parks will probably be open by July.
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
That's my question as well. Seems like we'd have to see some spike in numbers and a radical governor (Michigan?) slaps the restrictions back on or something. Panic resumes.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
A lot of stocks, covid stocks in particular, are acting as basically inverse market right now. So if you were doing well on days where the market wasn't it would make sense the opposite is true today.Maybe. Our 401ks that are basically almost index funds will be doing well, but I’m barely up on my individual stocks. I’ve beaten the market pretty handily the last couple weeks so I assume that’s why a lot of my stocks went nowhere today. ETSY is one that was up a couple % at the start and is down 8% now. Almost like online retail is going to stop now that stores are opening. All my stocks that had held up well and are close to or above all time highs definitely had some profit taking today.
I do have some cash to put to use and I missed the onion casino thing. Man, I wish I had managed my money better in my 20s and 30s (and my wife
A lot of the stocks that have been really strong recently are taking big hits today. W, SHOP, BYND, ETSY, SQ, ZM, PTON, SFIX, etc.
Meanwhile the beaten down stocks are the ones making the massive gains.
It seems like this is the trend we've settled into. Market tanks alongside banks, retail, airlines, etc while stay at home stocks go up. Then market rebounds alongside banks, planes, retail, etc and stay at home stocks fade. Tech stocks just keep going up in both cases.
McBokonon
Footballguy
A severe second wave is the only thing I can think of and I can't rule that out based on the mask-less cattle I saw at every restaurant I drove by this weekend.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Agreed with this, entirely.
Which makes selling around $118 tempting but not a need.
Lower capacity, people hesitant to go, sentiment lasting longer than expected.
I'm not expecting the parks to have near the same profit for a year or two. Movies and Disney+ can only carry it so far. Although I'm not sure if a direct to ppv model works well for Marvel or other Disney movies.
In the $100-125 range, it's a solid hold imo.
I thought that too about Q1 numbers but those numbers were causing lots of pops and they were virtually irrelevant. I think the Q2 numbers will have an impact. As much as there is a look past, it’s still news and Disney having 50% or less of revenue while implied could still look shocking YoY.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
There are still 6 weeks until July and this stock is moving 20pts one way or the other in like 3 days right now.
We're kind of stuck in this cycle right now where the market drops for a few days and it seems like nothing but bad news and no one can imagine how the market could possibly reverse any time soon short of a vaccine being released. Yet then it does bounce back and it's nothing but unbridled optimism for a few days and no one could imagine how the market can possibly reverse short of a 2nd outbreak wave. But then it reverses again and so on and so on.
It's not just SPY going up and back down and back up and back down again. The overwhelming sense of dred followed by relief followed by dread followed by relief is in the same cycle.
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So true. I’d been beating the overall market nicely, just weird to see so many reds on a huge day but it was definitely an old school day, if you will.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Capella
Footballguy
There will be no shortage of people wanting to go to Disney, I can assure you of that. They certainly won’t have the same profit though for sure.
Capella
Footballguy
I’m not saying Disney won’t dip again it seeing it in the low-90s would surprise me. But who knows.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Right, they're not going out of business or anything like that, but if even 25% of the people who would go to the parks decide to not go, or not go as often, that will be felt.
Long term though, people want to get back to life as they remember it.
Watch Disney just make a fortune on Mickey Masks. The new must have souvenir. I already want the Darth Vader one.
matuski
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Exactly. We are on the same page. But at the same time....this price IMO is still frothy based on a current PE of 40 and earnings declining more to previous quarters. So that is where the under 100 price comes into play. They also suspended their small dividend. Disney has never had a good dividend anyway.....but it should be noted you are paying a premium for this stock right now at this level IMO.
There is far better value in the market right now. Under a 100....I start looking at it again. It is simply really hard to put valuations on Disney with everything going on and the implications over the next year or even two on this. Theme parks are 50% of their revenue and the movie studio is also getting hit hard with no one even thinking of going into move theater when they open back up. That business is in big jeopardy IMO (movie theaters). Risk getting COvid over being going to a movie for 12-13 bucks a ticket and 8 dollar popcorn and 5 dollar sodas? Yeah....no thanks. So their margins on the movies are going to take a big hit too.
Certain industries are simply going to have to be re-priced. And Disney’s theme parks are not going to be shoulder to shoulder for a long time. I simply can’t see that. The phycological damage that has been done will turn away many more than people think. There are other vacation destinations you can take with a lot less density risk. Behaviors on travel are going to change here for the next year or two. Then by 2023 I really think things will be back to pre-covid normal. I am just not getting ahead of myself when it comes to travel and leisure stocks.
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Todem
Footballguy
Earnings, earnings earnings. What are these 40 multiple earnings going to be? I am not betting on them being at pre-covid levels. Am I going to pay 40 times earnings for a stock that will not have revenue streams like pre-covid for years?
Nope.
It is the polar opposite of how I pick stocks.
Pre-covid when DIS was 100-105 it was 15 times. Now?
Again if you think people are going bum rush the parks like they used to.....pay up for the stock. I simply don’t think the upside is worth the premium at this price level.
I just can’t see the Disney experience being a pleasure in this kind of environment. I think people thinking it will be fun will be greatly dissapointed. I see all kinds go logistic issues with trying to enjoy yourself in a theme park. Margins will be pressured very hard as well with les people, more costs to keeping it cleaner and disinfected.....so many layers of crap to overcome.
I wait for the stock to drop hard again before I take a new position. I just do not share the positive vibe the stock had today. Hard to when you really direct the reality of what is going on for them.
Todem
Footballguy
And that is why they will go sub 100 again....to answer the original question.
And BTW......the stock had a dramatic pop due to Disney Plus in 2019. And I felt that was overdone BTW. Before that....it was trading at these levels pre Disney Plus and pre-covid. Think about that. Now add onto the fact that they are losing hundreds of millions in revenue because of Covid and will take time to even sniff pre-covid revenue.
That makes the stock price right here.....stupid IMO. I love Disney as much as the next person. Been there too many times to count (Florida Resident). It is no value here. Not in the least bit.
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My sentiments exactly. Wasn’t that long ago in 2019 that 115-120 for Disney was near the top. Just because it ran up to 150 doesn’t mean that it wasn’t overvalued. For a stock whose revenue and earnings will be materially affected in 2020, 118 isn’t a bargain. 90 sure, but 118 is more of a PE was too high retreat than a CV crush is.
I certainly wouldn't buy more here. https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/MAR#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOjgsImZsaXBwZWQiOmZhbHNlLCJ2b2x1bWVVbmRlcmxheSI6dHJ1ZSwiYWRqIjp0cnVlLCJjcm9zc2hhaXIiOnRydWUsImNoYXJ0VHlwZSI6ImxpbmUiLCJleHRlbmRlZCI6ZmFsc2UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSwiYWdncmVnYXRpb25UeXBlIjoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiOiJsaW5lYXIiLCJzdHVkaWVzIjp7IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIjp7InR5cGUiOiJ2b2wgdW5kciIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJpZCI6IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiVXAgVm9sdW1lIjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRvd24gVm9sdW1lIjoiI2ZmMzMzYSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJ3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX19LCJwYW5lbHMiOnsiY2hhcnQiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MSwiZGlzcGxheSI6Ik1BUiIsImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwiaW5kZXgiOjAsInlBeGlzIjp7Im5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInBvc2l0aW9uIjpudWxsfSwieWF4aXNMSFMiOltdLCJ5YXhpc1JIUyI6WyJjaGFydCIsIuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIl19fSwic2V0U3BhbiI6e30sImxpbmVXaWR0aCI6Miwic3RyaXBlZEJhY2tncm91bmQiOnRydWUsImV2ZW50cyI6dHJ1ZSwiY29sb3IiOiIjMDA4MWYyIiwic3RyaXBlZEJhY2tncm91ZCI6dHJ1ZSwiZXZlbnRNYXAiOnsiY29ycG9yYXRlIjp7ImRpdnMiOnRydWUsInNwbGl0cyI6dHJ1ZX0sInNpZ0RldiI6e319LCJzeW1ib2xzIjpbeyJzeW1ib2wiOiJNQVIiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiTUFSIiwicXVvdGVUeXBlIjoiRVFVSVRZIiwiZXhjaGFuZ2VUaW1lWm9uZSI6IkFtZXJpY2EvTmV3X1lvcmsifSwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoiZGF5IiwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsInNldFNwYW4iOnt9fV19
It's treated me better than the Blooming Onion. It's been a yo-yo for two months. I'd target low 80's or 70s. I think you'll get one more chance and that will be the time to get in for the long term.
I live next door to a $200 a night Hilton hotel. I haven't seen more than 5 cars in the lot in 2 months. It used to be packed. Earning are going to be brutal. Beyond the room revenue, they are losing the food and liquor revenue.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Stock almost tripled since this post. You would think I would have bought it?here, but the anointed king in all of this, Dr. Fauci is a massive massive proponent of vaccines. Despite tons of evidence, "anecdotal" and otherwise, use of drugs like chloroquine and now leronlimab, or things as novel as intravenous vitamin C, that have seen tremendous rates of treatment success have been largely downplayed, if not entirely ignored by our mainstream medical authorities. Remember, Fauci is a career medical politician and is clearly calling the shots with regards to the narrative on this entire pandemic. He and Trump continue to contradict each other with regards to severity and treatment protocols. I've come across some stuff that shows Fauci with industry ties to Moderna (symbol: MRNA) who coincidentally produces RNA-based drugs. I think they may be one of the front runners to come out of this with the "miracle vaccine" that the world is tripping over themselves for.
My completely inexpert opinion is that while other drugs are showing great promise for treating Covid-19, there's too much internal politicking to think any will catch on with the mainstream authorities, as they continue to bide there time until a vaccine can be hurriedly developed. I think something like CYDY can def be getting the publicity/stock pop for its positive PR on treatment potential, but I'm not so sure I could see them rising to the top as "the one" for the corona cure, so the chances of that big time run up into double digits seems way less likely than the classic penny stock rollercoaster patterns.
Here's an article from Bloomberg discussing Fauci's focus on vaccine development:
Link
Oh yea....it's all rigged.
bcnfinance
Footballguy
$CMG is on a tear lately ... cannot understand this one.
matuski
Footballguy
Did an overnight last week and my courtyard was 2/3rds full. Had to wait in line to check in.
eta - even bought a beer from the bar.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
I ended up selling a little under half. I'll just see what happens for a bit.I just saw my sell order went through at $119.30
After some reshuffling over the past couple of weeks during the run-up, I took profits a lot of places and today started small positions (like 15%) in CRM and JPM.
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
MS acting as the sole bookrunner also seems troubling given they just put out that piece on vaccines and obviously included Moderna in it. I mean there is a plausible explanation in that they need money to further develop and create the millions of vaccines needed. The optimist in me thinks they had good data and need the money to commercially produce it so they're raising money on the heels of it. There is also some concern over any money to make money on the actual vaccine although the mRNA technology seems promising for a lot of things.
But there are certainly a lot of troubling connections and coincidences between all this. I'm certainly hopeful it works out even as I got my butt handed to me today in the market. Because quite frankly, if we don't find a vaccine, we're in for a depression and none of this will really matter. Even if you're in gold and guns, I don't think any of us really want to live in a world like that.
But there are certainly a lot of troubling connections and coincidences between all this. I'm certainly hopeful it works out even as I got my butt handed to me today in the market. Because quite frankly, if we don't find a vaccine, we're in for a depression and none of this will really matter. Even if you're in gold and guns, I don't think any of us really want to live in a world like that.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Its not often you can decline to give guidance and still trade just off the all time high. Its absolutely overpriced but it doesn't seem to matter at the moment.guru_007 said:There has got to be some session end selling here pushing indexes lower, no? And please, let's get TTD down to like 200
beef
Footballguy
First rule about bait and switch...
The crew on CNBC after markets closed we're talking about this. No one was saying that they'd be buying.
This interesting to read because I don't find the Disney experience a pleasure in any environment. They were already moving away from parks a bit in their strategy for driving growth. It's a well run company with extremely valuable IP, so I expect they will find good ways to maximize it. ESPN may be an albatross, but Hulu is underrated in their streaming strategy.stbugs said:
Not saying I would buy today, but I see a healthy floor. The long term keeps me from selling it thus far....
eaganwildcats
Footballguy
As I figured, not much volume at all. Got some at $7 and &7.10 - after today's buys in with 1K shares at ~7.40 average cost. Thursday conference call to discuss Q1 earnings. I'm not expecting much, but we shall see! Aurora took off today, haven't really looked at why.eaganwildcats said:
