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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

Todem said:
Unless another black swan happens....the lows were put in on March 23rd. The easy money has been made. 

With that being said.....we will have pull backs. No doubt. It is par for the course. If you have some cash, I would not be rushing into this rally. No reason too. We have a long way to go. And I have been around for a very long time to know at some point the fundamental will meet the road and we will see some bumps again and no question this is not a straight line up. There are well over 35MM american out of work right now.

Let that sink in for a moment.

This is a consumer based economy. 

All the jobs are not coming back on the flip of a switch. We are going to have some serious mud to wade through her over the next 6 months. Buy the dips. That is all I will say. Have a list of stocks you really want to own for the long term and simply buy the dips. 

March 16th-23rd was a once in 10 year chance to buy a fire sale. Literally a massive fire sale. If we see that again it will be because we are shutdown again (which IMO is simply not going to happen).

Demand is pent up but also know certain industries will take massive earnings hits over the next 6-12 months. And when those fundamentals come into play the stocks will price accordingly. 

I am loaded up on the master list. I stick with those industries with clean balance sheets (save for BA right now but IMO they will roar back in due time), strong dividends and can’t live without type industries. 

People are not going to be traveling nearly as much, discretionary spending will go down. At the same time I think residential real estate will remains stable and actually increase because in my mind we are no doubt going to have some real inflation in the next year......10 trillion has been thrown at this thing. 10!!!!! Let than sink in too.

The markets will be a wild ride for a few years......but having great/fundamentally sound yields in your portfolio get you through the tougher times. 

So again.....buy the dips, don’t chase the market. Let it come to you.
Click to expand...
What level pullbacks are you looking to see before jumping in general if we won't likely see pullbacks to March 16th-23rd levels?  

I'm there with you...been selling most of the highs to get some cash freed up for when a dip comes, but I don't have a good intuition about what level of pullbacks we should be seeing in the future.  I'd expect the next ones to come if infection levels spike again and people become more reluctant to go out or spend.  Also, just over time due to unemployment numbers staying the same, not seeing a quick recovery like many expect.

But in terms of looking for targets for stocks, can you give any examples of how you are setting a target buy on those stocks you want in a long-term portfolio?

 
The General said:
I'm super lazy here but could you repost your master list? I had it marked and lost it.
Click to expand...
AAPL

AMZN

GOOGL

EMR

CSCO

T

EXC

LMT

PG

JPM

INTC

MSFT

GLPI

BA (we were buying aggresively at 115, 105 and 100)

BMY

TGT

VZ

PEO

BLMN (trading this)

TXRH (Traded this)

CCL

DAL - Have not bought this yet

FDX

DFS

PFE

PPL

 
adonis said:
What level pullbacks are you looking to see before jumping in general if we won't likely see pullbacks to March 16th-23rd levels?  

I'm there with you...been selling most of the highs to get some cash freed up for when a dip comes, but I don't have a good intuition about what level of pullbacks we should be seeing in the future.  I'd expect the next ones to come if infection levels spike again and people become more reluctant to go out or spend.  Also, just over time due to unemployment numbers staying the same, not seeing a quick recovery like many expect.

But in terms of looking for targets for stocks, can you give any examples of how you are setting a target buy on those stocks you want in a long-term portfolio?
Click to expand...
So good question. 

I am thinking in terms of 8-10% pull backs. We all know how hard it is to time a bottom.

So for example when i see JPM dip below 90....I am a buyer.

When I see BA under 115, I am a buyer

When I see EMR at 50 or less I am a buyer.

When I see EXC under 35 I am buyer.

I have targets for all my stocks to what I deem a good to great value and if I have cash....I buy them. Those are just a few examples. 

I have a hard time thinking we see a pure panic sell off again if we remain open. But a 10% correction is easily on the table. And it would not shock me as we head into the summer months. Then we have the election and Covid phase 2 potentially in the fall. So plenty of volatility yet to come. 

The last true dip we had was back on the 11th-14th of May and was the last time I deployed cash into stocks. I bought a lot of great companies that day mid morning before the rally started that we are in right now.

We bought:

BA

DFS

DE

JPM

EXC

PPL

WRE

XOM

KO

T

VZ

TAP

PG

And we of course know the BLMN and MGM trades we booked again. And will probably be able to do again IMO one last time.  also finally bought CCL that day and we are up 40 plus% already on that one. 

But the quality stuff......I am buying on sell offs. 

I don’t have much cash left. But I am looking at trimming some profits on some of the low hanging fruit we got back in March like GLPI. We are up huge in that position. I mean I could easily sell half and not look back. The master list is up 32% as a group since March 23rd. 

Crazy bounce back.....but not surprising. 

A pull back is coming. No question. And anyone who poo poo’s on that kind of thought process are amateurs. 

I keep saying a pull back will happen again because I don’t want people feeling like they are missing this.......you will have chances to buy in cheaper from here. Just be patient if you have a lot of cash and missed this historic rally back. A 10% pull back means some of these names can pull back more than that (like EMR, DE, BA CAT) those are high beta cyclicals that move harder. Fianncials are getting kicked around higher than the index’s. 

And please when you see AAPL, GOOGL, INTC, AMZN, MSFT, CSCO sell off.....BUY!!!!! That was the golden opportunity back in March. So the next time you see 5-6-7% moves down on those stocks and you don’t own them.....buy them. All of those are on the master list. I have not bought shares in any of those since March. They have gone straight up. But they will have their day....and they will sell off again at some point. So be patient. Don’t chase.

For those of us already almost fully invested.....don’t even worry. 

Because you should have your emergency money in the bank. Not the market. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The General said:
I'm super lazy here but could you repost your master list? I had it marked and lost it.
Click to expand...
AAPL

AMZN

GOOGL

EMR

CSCO

T

EXC

LMT

PG

JPM

INTC

MSFT

GLPI

BA (we were buying aggresively at 115, 105 and 100)

BMY

TGT

VZ

PEO

BLMN (trading this)

TXRH (Traded this)

CCL

DAL - Have not bought this yet

FDX

DFS

PFE

PPL

CSCO

GCX

ADX

 
I have my finger somewhat on the pulse of the economy ... very tiny bit anyway.

Car salesman in my store yesterday... on pace to sell 25 cars this month. Too busy to be bothered taking on any more customers.

Owner of a tree service company in today ... already booked for the next 3 months. Wants to add to his crew but can't find anyone available to hire.

How many people are unemployed? ... and this guy can't find anyone willing to work for him.

I know there's lots of unemployed.. and business closings  ... but they're not unemployed and closed because of lack of consumer revenue.

This covid shut down is a different animal and shouldn't be compared to recessions and depressions of the past. 

 
Todem said:
So good question. 

I am thinking in terms of 8-10% pull backs. We all know how hard it is to time a bottom.

So for example when i see JPM dip below 90....I am a buyer.

When I see BA under 115, I am a buyer

When I see EMR at 50 or less I am a buyer.

When I see EXC under 35 I am buyer.

I have targets for all my stocks to what I deem a good to great value and if I have cash....I buy them. Those are just a few examples. 

I have a hard time thinking we see a pure panic sell off again if we remain open. But a 10% correction is easily on the table. And it would not shock me as we head into the summer months. Then we have the election and Covid phase 2 potentially in the fall. So plenty of volatility yet to come. 

The last true dip we had was back on the 11th-14th of May and was the last time I deployed cash into stocks. I bought a lot of great companies that day mid morning before the rally started that we are in right now.

We bought:

BA

DFS

DE

JPM

EXC

PPL

WRE

XOM

KO

T

VZ

TAP

PG

And we of course know the BLMN and MGM trades we booked again. And will probably be able to do again IMO one last time.  also finally bought CCL that day and we are up 40 plus% already on that one. 

But the quality stuff......I am buying on sell offs. 

I don’t have much cash left. But I am looking at trimming some profits on some of the low hanging fruit we got back in March like GLPI. We are up huge in that position. I mean I could easily sell half and not look back. The master list is up 32% as a group since March 23rd. 

Crazy bounce back.....but not surprising. 

A pull back is coming. No question. And anyone who poo poo’s on that kind of thought process are amateurs. 

I keep saying a pull back will happen again because I don’t want people feeling like they are missing this.......you will have chances to buy in cheaper from here. Just be patient if you have a lot of cash and missed this historic rally back. A 10% pull back means some of these names can pull back more than that (like EMR, DE, BA CAT) those are high beta cyclicals that move harder. Fianncials are getting kicked around higher than the index’s. 

And please when you see AAPL, GOOGL, INTC, AMZN, MSFT, CSCO sell off.....BUY!!!!! That was the golden opportunity back in March. So the next time you see 5-6-7% moves down on those stocks and you don’t own them.....buy them. All of those are on the master list. I have not bought shares in any of those since March. They have gone straight up. But they will have their day....and they will sell off again at some point. So be patient. Don’t chase.

For those of us already almost fully invested.....don’t even worry. 

Because you should have your emergency money in the bank. Not the market. 
Click to expand...
I break this rule personally but would never advise anyone else to do so. 

 
Don't Noonan said:
Where Sorkin failed is assuming Kernan doesn't care about deaths which is flawed logic
Click to expand...
Watching kernen and Sorkin regularly since Covid became a thing here--I disagree.   It is supposed to be a market based channel and for many weeks--anytime Sorkin interviews any guests--Kernen would literally take any question or answer that was not pro-Trump and be completely dismissive of it in a very arrogant and condescending manner.  Sorkin is a well respected and established journalist that doesn't need to have his co-worker repeatedly try to be dismissive and condescending to his interviews as he's doing them.  He would always just take it to keep the peace--and Kernen would just keep pushing his luck and press his buttons.  Go back and watch the interview that Kernen did with Trump in the past--it's beyond obvious that he's a major Trump fanboy.   By the way--even though I'm not a fan of Trump--I have nothing against people being supportive of him.  Who I don't appreciate are the supporters who literally try to drown or eliminate even the notion that he and his policies are above scrutiny. That's how Kernen has been--and he has absolutely abused his position to support his buddy.  

Kernen doesn't mention that the Dow was up to 29500 before this mess. After 10 trillion dollars of stimulus, a fed that has lowered its rates to basically zero, record high unemployment, and what will be the deaths of  more Americans than we lost in in World War I --we are still 15-18% below our all time highs---and yet he and our president are calling the response to covid a success. Had our president taken this thing seriously from the beginning--like South Korea, like Taiwan, like Thailand, like New Zealand,  like Iceland, like Australia--we would be in a far better place economically and medically for decades to come.  However--you look at Kernen--dude acts like the US has handled it in a resoundingly successful way--when in reality--our countries/leaderships  response has been one of the worst on the planet.  

Anyhow--my apologies for the derailment and rant--and let's get back to stonks. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Bossman said:
I have my finger somewhat on the pulse of the economy ... very tiny bit anyway.

Car salesman in my store yesterday... on pace to sell 25 cars this month. Too busy to be bothered taking on any more customers.

Owner of a tree service company in today ... already booked for the next 3 months. Wants to add to his crew but can't find anyone available to hire.

How many people are unemployed? ... and this guy can't find anyone willing to work for him.

I know there's lots of unemployed.. and business closings  ... but they're not unemployed and closed because of lack of consumer revenue.

This covid shut down is a different animal and shouldn't be compared to recessions and depressions of the past. 
Click to expand...
Because they don't want to give up their higher paying gig of unemployment.  I can guarantee you the tree service guy is not pay $30000 a year. Unemployed are getting $2400/month on top of their state unemployment. Now that being said, all jobs are not coming back and there are only so many seat at the table so are you in or are ya on the outs????  Ned Beatty from Shooter.

Most of the lost jobs were paying less than the free $ they are getting now. Someone on one of the financial sites stated the same thing last weekend. Also stated what I was thinking. They are making a huge mistake waiting until that $ dries up because then they will be competing for a job with the rest of the people who took extended vacations and waited.

 
Thank you blooming.  I think that's 5 times on that ride now.  

I did keep 25 shares as a momento and to make it readily trackable.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
jvdesigns2002 said:
Watching kernen and Sorkin regularly since Covid became a thing here--I disagree.   It is supposed to be a market based channel and for many weeks--anytime Sorkin interviews any guests--Kernen would literally take any question or answer that was not pro-Trump and be completely dismissive of it in a very arrogant and condescending manner.  Sorkin is a well respected and established journalist that doesn't need to have his co-worker repeatedly try to be dismissive and condescending to his interviews as he's doing them.  He would always just take it to keep the peace--and Kernen would just keep pushing his luck and press his buttons.  Go back and watch the interview that Kernen did with Trump in the past--it's beyond obvious that he's a major Trump fanboy.   By the way--even though I'm not a fan of Trump--I have nothing against people being supportive of him.  Who I don't appreciate are the supporters who literally try to drown or eliminate even the notion that he and his policies are above scrutiny. That's how Kernen has been--and he has absolutely abused his position to support his buddy.  

Kernen doesn't mention that the Dow was up to 29500 before this mess. After 10 trillion dollars of stimulus, a fed that has lowered its rates to basically zero, record high unemployment, and what will be the deaths of  more Americans than we lost in in World War I --we are still 15-18% below our all time highs---and yet he and our president are calling the response to covid a success. Had our president taken this thing seriously from the beginning--like South Korea, like Taiwan, like Thailand, like New Zealand,  like Iceland, like Australia--we would be in a far better place economically and medically for decades to come.  However--you look at Kernen--dude acts like the US has handled it in a resoundingly successful way--when in reality--our countries/leaderships  response has been one of the worst on the planet.  

Anyhow--my apologies for the derailment and rant--and let's get back to stonks. 
Click to expand...
I disagree with most of what you say here but that is for the PSF forum.

 
lakerstan said:
As a buy and hold index fund guy, moved some cash into VFAIX today.  Top 10 holdings:

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

Bank of America Corp.

Wells Fargo & Co.

Citigroup Inc.

CME Group Inc.

S&P Global Inc.

American Express Co.

US Bancorp

BlackRock Inc.
Click to expand...
Made a tidy little sum with this move, but keep having a sense of dread that the market could go down any second. 

Options are:

1.  Leave it alone, financial industry is still a value

2.  Move it all to cash/bonds and reinvest if/when a dip happens

3.  Move some of it to cash/bonds

4.  Transfer to a full market index fund, stop messing around with my money and stay a Boglehead. 

Thoughts?

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Watching kernen and Sorkin regularly since Covid became a thing here--I disagree.   It is supposed to be a market based channel and for many weeks--anytime Sorkin interviews any guests--Kernen would literally take any question or answer that was not pro-Trump and be completely dismissive of it in a very arrogant and condescending manner.  Sorkin is a well respected and established journalist that doesn't need to have his co-worker repeatedly try to be dismissive and condescending to his interviews as he's doing them.  He would always just take it to keep the peace--and Kernen would just keep pushing his luck and press his buttons.  Go back and watch the interview that Kernen did with Trump in the past--it's beyond obvious that he's a major Trump fanboy.   By the way--even though I'm not a fan of Trump--I have nothing against people being supportive of him.  Who I don't appreciate are the supporters who literally try to drown or eliminate even the notion that he and his policies are above scrutiny. That's how Kernen has been--and he has absolutely abused his position to support his buddy.  

Kernen doesn't mention that the Dow was up to 29500 before this mess. After 10 trillion dollars of stimulus, a fed that has lowered its rates to basically zero, record high unemployment, and what will be the deaths of  more Americans than we lost in in World War I --we are still 15-18% below our all time highs---and yet he and our president are calling the response to covid a success. Had our president taken this thing seriously from the beginning--like South Korea, like Taiwan, like Thailand, like New Zealand,  like Iceland, like Australia--we would be in a far better place economically and medically for decades to come.  However--you look at Kernen--dude acts like the US has handled it in a resoundingly successful way--when in reality--our countries/leaderships  response has been one of the worst on the planet.  

Anyhow--my apologies for the derailment and rant--and let's get back to stonks. 
Click to expand...
Good post here.  I didn't know all the back story.  Great recap and write up.  :thumbup:

 
lod001 said:
Pumped from under a buck to 4 and then they unleash a $35 M share offering at $2.00

No thanks.
Click to expand...
Eat my loss for lunch and moving on.

Lost 16% on this one.  Ouch.

Thanks for the info.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
lod001 said:
Because they don't want to give up their higher paying gig of unemployment.  I can guarantee you the tree service guy is not pay $30000 a year. Unemployed are getting $2400/month on top of their state unemployment. Now that being said, all jobs are not coming back and there are only so many seat at the table so are you in or are ya on the outs????  Ned Beatty from Shooter.

Most of the lost jobs were paying less than the free $ they are getting now. Someone on one of the financial sites stated the same thing last weekend. Also stated what I was thinking. They are making a huge mistake waiting until that $ dries up because then they will be competing for a job with the rest of the people who took extended vacations and waited.
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1265703648329416709

Yeah, pretty much.

 
Bossman said:
I have my finger somewhat on the pulse of the economy ... very tiny bit anyway.

Car salesman in my store yesterday... on pace to sell 25 cars this month. Too busy to be bothered taking on any more customers.

Owner of a tree service company in today ... already booked for the next 3 months. Wants to add to his crew but can't find anyone available to hire.

How many people are unemployed? ... and this guy can't find anyone willing to work for him.

I know there's lots of unemployed.. and business closings  ... but they're not unemployed and closed because of lack of consumer revenue.

This covid shut down is a different animal and shouldn't be compared to recessions and depressions of the past. 
Click to expand...
Well what creates a 'normal' recession or depression? I don't disagree this is a different animal but for a host of different reasons. Where do you think that consumer revenue comes from? I mean at some point, the higher unemployment = lower consumer revenue. The one positive thing I heard was that while unemployment was 20%+, they only represented less than 10% of the actual income of the US. I would bet that the economic multiplier of that income is much higher though. But a lot of that income has been supplemented by stimulus, for now.

But it also isn't super surprising to see a bounce coming out of this. The economy has 2+ months of pent up demand. I mean what is this guy's 3 month average in car sales? What are his past 3 months? What do you think SAAR will end up being down y/y in 2020? Or do you think it will be flat? 

But while every recession is different and the economy being stronger coming into it may help soften the blow, I honestly don't think it will matter that much. With so many Americans living with minimal savings and having wiped out months of work, it will inevitably hit consumer discretionary spending. The only possible solution is helicopter money. Consumer discretionary spending may move around since people can't go to movies, fly, etc but it will shrink. If you don't believe so, I have some airline shares to sell ya at 30% off their recent highs. It may not be a full blown financial crisis since the banks are in decent shape but to think double digit unemployment won't flow through the economy seems silly.

The unemployment picture is muddied with the increased stimulus. A decent chunk will come back once places like restaurants can reopen. The more worrying trend is white-collar layoffs. Uber let go 6,700 folks, BA is letting 6,000 folks go. Anyone letting people go now doesn't have an expectation to hire them back as things reopen. And that doesn't even include reduced pay phenomenon (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-27/salaries-get-chopped-for-many-americans-who-manage-to-keep-jobs)

 
Have some pretty significant cash proceeds from the sale of our house. Let's call it very low 6 figures. Want to use it for some renovations to our new home, but we may not spend it for a while still. It's in WF right now but can move to Fidelity quickly. Getting 1.x% interest. Thoughts on what I should do with it for the short term?

 
Sandeman said:
Have some pretty significant cash proceeds from the sale of our house. Let's call it very low 6 figures. Want to use it for some renovations to our new home, but we may not spend it for a while still. It's in WF right now but can move to Fidelity quickly. Getting 1.x% interest. Thoughts on what I should do with it for the short term?
Click to expand...
Buy Stonks.

 
Sandeman said:
Have some pretty significant cash proceeds from the sale of our house. Let's call it very low 6 figures. Want to use it for some renovations to our new home, but we may not spend it for a while still. It's in WF right now but can move to Fidelity quickly. Getting 1.x% interest. Thoughts on what I should do with it for the short term?
Click to expand...
imo, Nothing right now. If anything, wait for that 8-10% pullback that Todem talked about. Last thing you want to do is load in at the top.

 
lakerstan said:
Made a tidy little sum with this move, but keep having a sense of dread that the market could go down any second. 

Options are:

1.  Leave it alone, financial industry is still a value

2.  Move it all to cash/bonds and reinvest if/when a dip happens

3.  Move some of it to cash/bonds

4.  Transfer to a full market index fund, stop messing around with my money and stay a Boglehead. 

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
What is the portion of your portfolio? You have a lot of bank stonks, which I still think are a great value  if you hold long term.

 
-OZ- said:
Sold bud, keeping DFS.

Which probably means do the reverse.
Click to expand...
I sold all my BUD but one share.  Kind of wish I hadn't because it's still at a 55% discount.  I just have a hard time passing on gains.  It's also pulled back fast and furious twice before.  I'll be a buyer for a long term hold on the next dip if Stonks ever go down.

 
BassNBrew said:
I sold all my BUD but one share.  Kind of wish I hadn't because it's still at a 55% discount.  I just have a hard time passing on gains.  It's also pulled back fast and furious twice before.  I'll be a buyer for a long term hold on the next dip if Stonks ever go down.
Click to expand...
Agreed.

Honestly, it was in a college account, which I told myself not to day trade with. 

But I bought SE with it to hold. 

 
sporthenry said:
Well what creates a 'normal' recession or depression? I don't disagree this is a different animal but for a host of different reasons. Where do you think that consumer revenue comes from? I mean at some point, the higher unemployment = lower consumer revenue. The one positive thing I heard was that while unemployment was 20%+, they only represented less than 10% of the actual income of the US. I would bet that the economic multiplier of that income is much higher though. But a lot of that income has been supplemented by stimulus, for now.

But it also isn't super surprising to see a bounce coming out of this. The economy has 2+ months of pent up demand. I mean what is this guy's 3 month average in car sales? What are his past 3 months? What do you think SAAR will end up being down y/y in 2020? Or do you think it will be flat? 

But while every recession is different and the economy being stronger coming into it may help soften the blow, I honestly don't think it will matter that much. With so many Americans living with minimal savings and having wiped out months of work, it will inevitably hit consumer discretionary spending. The only possible solution is helicopter money. Consumer discretionary spending may move around since people can't go to movies, fly, etc but it will shrink. If you don't believe so, I have some airline shares to sell ya at 30% off their recent highs. It may not be a full blown financial crisis since the banks are in decent shape but to think double digit unemployment won't flow through the economy seems silly.

The unemployment picture is muddied with the increased stimulus. A decent chunk will come back once places like restaurants can reopen. The more worrying trend is white-collar layoffs. Uber let go 6,700 folks, BA is letting 6,000 folks go. Anyone letting people go now doesn't have an expectation to hire them back as things reopen. And that doesn't even include reduced pay phenomenon (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-27/salaries-get-chopped-for-many-americans-who-manage-to-keep-jobs)
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

liquidity -------> solvency crisis. The printed money helped stave off the first phase. We shall see how we fare during the second phase that will probably span a good 18+ months. 

 
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