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Stock Thread (26 Viewers)

beef said:
I've been a 401k timer, and I'm done with it.  Had some hits and misses, and overall I am up, but it really wasn't worth the stress and required a lot of dumb luck.  Only thing I'll really do as timing going forward is when to double or triple up on contributions.  
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Yeah, the other thing with timing is that the extra risk, in terms of lower rewards, just isn't worth it in money as vital as retirement funds, IMO. Open a taxable account and do it. 

 
siffoin said:
Time Frame.  It's all about Time Frame.

For many years I feel I've been quite consistent in saying that the LT (Investors Trend) is Bullish.  Even back in March, I feel confident that we could go back and find a post where I would have said something like:

"The LT Trend remains bullish BUT the recent decline has been a punch to the face. If the market were to turn bearish there is a trap door to hell where the market could decline all the way to $SPY = $140ish. Even still it will take weeks and/or months for the LT Trend to flip from Bull to Bear, and there will be tradable moves along the way"

If I said anything contrary to that - could someone please find that post because I would have been shrooming if I said that. (And I will profusely apologize) 

Within the LT Time Frame there is often tradeable opportunities.  I felt the market was so far over-valued back in Feb that I said "GYPR".  That wasn't a call to sell everything you own and that a bear market was upon us or imminent.  In fact my suggestion was for someone to take 15% (or so - I don't remember the exact allocation %) and purchase $TAIL as a cheap insurance policy (especially for those without access to the futures market).  Again I repeated in March that those holding $TAIL needed to find a place to take their profits.  As within the LT Trend we had gone from severely over-valued to severely under-valued.

In May I threw out another $GYPR call.  Why?  Because the technical indicators I follow suggested that we were in a period of a tradeable decline (like 10%+)  Counter-trend trades are difficult to call with absolute precision - because the strongest pull of the market is to the LT Trend.  The call definitely wasn't a suggestion to liquidate your portfolio..rather that the moment of risk might be greater than reward and to pay attention.  

In the past 3 months - my take is we've moved from severely under-valued back to over-valued.  Not as bad as it was in Feb - but perhaps the economy is slightly different too.  My charts don't reflect the economy however - only price over time.

The technical part of me has remained pretty cool and calm during all of this - as it has played out (to the extreme) but within what was expected.  That makes me feel quite confident in my charts.  The reasoned human in me looks around and is saying WTF - a complete disconnect between the stock market and the economy.  There is something seriously wrong imo.  I mean we might as well just be trading Pokeman Cards for a fortune.  Again the reasoned human in me says what is going on will have dangerous consequences because if there is no connection between the stock market and the economy what makes $AMZN any different than say a $Pikachu Illustrator card?

In regards to this thread - I don't know what to make of it.  For certain - the kind of stuff I do is not at all like anyone else in here.  Not sure I really offer any value at all and don't think I'll throw out any more $GYPR's and LT trend turns moving forward.  I do like to see what you guys are doing.  I want you all to do well.  Congrats to those who have.  Moving forward, I'd say good luck!
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I personally think that your analysis and your thoughts provide a ton of value in this thread.  The way that I see this thread is that it is a think tank of various points of views, ideas, and strategies that are all worthy of being talked about and digested.  I just hope that moving forward that a mind like yours doesn't sit on the sidelines in regards to providing your points of views and ideas to this thread.  

Let's also forget that even people that might be bearish on the market and share those opinions are only doing so to help fellow fbg's.  This is why I am such a proponent of inviting as much discussion into this thread a possible. Even those that have dissenting  opinions--aren't sharing those opinions to wish anybody here negative results.  They are sharing that opinion with the motivation that they are looking out for fellow fbg's.  Even if that opinion ends up being wrong--it doesn't mean their intentions were bad.   This is why I feel like we should all invite discussion--and we should try to avoid chastising people who may have called something wrong.  Nobody will ever bat 1000 in predicting the markets. 

 
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randall146 said:
Noob question: assuming I believe that the market is irrationally climbing and will correct some time in the near future, is there any good reason not to put in a trailing stop loss of 3-5% for all my holdings?
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FWIW, I'm also a noob, but I wouldn't do this. The consensus in here seems to be that while the market is certainly divorced from the economy, we're probably not going to see another massive crash in the near future. More like some 5-10% dips here and there. If that's true, selling everything has pretty limited upside and significant downside. I'd stay the course and keep on averaging into solid stocks/indexes.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I know somebody posted something a while back about potential COVID treatments. What's the story with Lenzilumab?  What do we know? Search function turns up nothing.
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From what I can see, Lenzilumab is somewhat similar to Leronlimab, but it seems like it's behind time-wise.  Lenzilumab started a Phase III clinical study in April 30 and did not announce the first enrollee until May 15.  The target end date of the study is currently Sept.   In my completely non-professional opinion, if Leronlimab presents good data July 1, by the time Sept rolls around the Covid ship for Lenzilumab could very well have sailed already.

Lenzilumab Study

Also, Humanigen is also OTC (HGEN)

 
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Don Hutson said:
Hertz up 148% in premarket trading.
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Currently #3 on RH changes. These kids know the names of companies but have no idea what they are doing. I just spoke with several of the young employees in our marketing department. Most are on RH. Using name recognition only to pick stocks. They have no idea about the financials.

 
siffoin said:
Time Frame.  It's all about Time Frame.

For many years I feel I've been quite consistent in saying that the LT (Investors Trend) is Bullish.  Even back in March, I feel confident that we could go back and find a post where I would have said something like:

"The LT Trend remains bullish BUT the recent decline has been a punch to the face. If the market were to turn bearish there is a trap door to hell where the market could decline all the way to $SPY = $140ish. Even still it will take weeks and/or months for the LT Trend to flip from Bull to Bear, and there will be tradable moves along the way"

If I said anything contrary to that - could someone please find that post because I would have been shrooming if I said that. (And I will profusely apologize) 

Within the LT Time Frame there is often tradeable opportunities.  I felt the market was so far over-valued back in Feb that I said "GYPR".  That wasn't a call to sell everything you own and that a bear market was upon us or imminent.  In fact my suggestion was for someone to take 15% (or so - I don't remember the exact allocation %) and purchase $TAIL as a cheap insurance policy (especially for those without access to the futures market).  Again I repeated in March that those holding $TAIL needed to find a place to take their profits.  As within the LT Trend we had gone from severely over-valued to severely under-valued.

In May I threw out another $GYPR call.  Why?  Because the technical indicators I follow suggested that we were in a period of a tradeable decline (like 10%+)  Counter-trend trades are difficult to call with absolute precision - because the strongest pull of the market is to the LT Trend.  The call definitely wasn't a suggestion to liquidate your portfolio..rather that the moment of risk might be greater than reward and to pay attention.  

In the past 3 months - my take is we've moved from severely under-valued back to over-valued.  Not as bad as it was in Feb - but perhaps the economy is slightly different too.  My charts don't reflect the economy however - only price over time.

The technical part of me has remained pretty cool and calm during all of this - as it has played out (to the extreme) but within what was expected.  That makes me feel quite confident in my charts.  The reasoned human in me looks around and is saying WTF - a complete disconnect between the stock market and the economy.  There is something seriously wrong imo.  I mean we might as well just be trading Pokeman Cards for a fortune.  Again the reasoned human in me says what is going on will have dangerous consequences because if there is no connection between the stock market and the economy what makes $AMZN any different than say a $Pikachu Illustrator card?

In regards to this thread - I don't know what to make of it.  For certain - the kind of stuff I do is not at all like anyone else in here.  Not sure I really offer any value at all and don't think I'll throw out any more $GYPR's and LT trend turns moving forward.  I do like to see what you guys are doing.  I want you all to do well.  Congrats to those who have.  Moving forward, I'd say good luck!
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Hey Siff,

Thanks for the input, very reasonable, as always. Crazy ####### times we live in. BTW, I didn't take your GYPR call as a call to liquidate before or now, but read it as a proceed with caution sign. Amazingly timely before. As mentioned, I have been in majority cash for years. I'll put a plan in place to DCA both into TML (Todem's Master List) and a timed index fund. 

 
skycriesmary said:
Hey Siff,

Thanks for the input, very reasonable, as always. Crazy ####### times we live in. BTW, I didn't take your GYPR call as a call to liquidate before or now, but read it as a proceed with caution sign. Amazingly timely before. As mentioned, I have been in majority cash for years. I'll put a plan in place to DCA both into TML (Todem's Master List) and a timed index fund. 
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sending you a PM...look for it

 
skycriesmary said:
So, as someone who has been waiting on the drop that hasn't come, I don't know WTF to do. On one hand, I'm thinking about DCA into Todem's master list (give or take a stock or two), and on the other,, I made my popcorn getting ready for @siffoin's sequel. I'm just over 2/3 cash in my Roth IRA. At this point the only thing I know I'll do by the end of the day is rebalance and buy into some gold and silver on the drop, looking to have about 10% of my account in those as a hedge. 

The disconnect between the economy and market has been beaten to death in this thread, I'll just add I have anxiety about having my funds in the market when the day of reckoning finally comes. Who knows when that'll happen though.
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"I completely missed the run up. Should I now DCA into the suggestions of someone who continuously assured me the market was about to drop?" 

 
BassNBrew said:
I sold half because it's up a stupid amount.  That said, my target price is $6.  I will be a buyer on the pull back if that happens.
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Sold off ⅓ @ $3.20. now it's at $2.70, trying to decide whether to buy back in and "lock in the gain". But this was never a long term hold for me

 
Warrior said:
"I completely missed the run up. Should I now DCA into the suggestions of someone who continuously assured me the market was about to drop?" 
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Dude, while I appreciate the sarcasm, Todem's contributed FAR more in this thread than you have. Can you add something constructive instead of snark?

 
gruecd said:
I'll take "things people sitting on a bunch of cash say" for $1,000, Alex. ;)  
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I resemble that remark. I’m also up 32% since February 1.  I appreciate your insight and stats. I was just pointing out one long term stat that might bite the dist. 

 
How are the RH trending stocks being coordinated?  Reddit threads?  Is there an RH forum somewhere?  

Not sure how this pump and dump is happening with RH, but it'd be nice to get in before it is top 10 on popularity tracker. 

 
-OZ- said:
Sold off ⅓ @ $3.20. now it's at $2.70, trying to decide whether to buy back in and "lock in the gain". But this was never a long term hold for me
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Thanks for the heads up.  I didn't get the spread you got, but did buy some back.

 
randall146 said:
Noob question: assuming I believe that the market is irrationally climbing and will correct some time in the near future, is there any good reason not to put in a trailing stop loss of 3-5% for all my holdings?
Click to expand...
Depends on so many factors.  What is your investment horizon? Goals?  How long have you owned these stocks?  Do you want to keep them long term?

I definitely believe the market is acting irrationally, however, what I've done over the past few months is consolidated my holdings into high quality, low risk stocks, stocks I'm comfortable holding 5+ years.  I don't want to lose my shares of GOOG because they drop 3% due to anti-monopoly threats, only to see the next day them report earnings and the stock go up 10%+

My father uses trailing stop losses as he is older (duh) and losing 5% is uncomfortable to him.  He is now at ~50% cash as he has almost all income plays (lots of oil and gas).  

If I was holding a stock I didn't feel comfortable holding, or had a nice run up and I'd be glad to be out of, completely reasonable to put a trailing stop loss in there.

 
BassNBrew said:
gruecd said:
I'll take "things people sitting on a bunch of cash say" for $1,000, Alex. ;)  
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I resemble that remark. I’m also up 32% since February 1.  I appreciate your insight and stats. I was just pointing out one long term stat that might bite the dist. 
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Been buying back some of what I sold earlier today at a significant discount.  Bought both SYF and AAL shares back at a 15% discount in a matter of hours.  It's good to have cash.

 
beef said:
Don't beat yourselves up, Gents.  You made money, you did it right.  Lot of us took profits and that could have been bigger had we waited.  I've had plenty of times I didn't take profits and ended up getting less.  
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This is where I’m at.  I missed today.

still up 50% in my trading account and Mr and Mrs ref retirement accounts are back to where they were pre Convid.

got to take a step back every now and again - things aren’t bad and I’m glad most of you cashed big today.

 
CR69 said:
This can't be right...

https://twitter.com/hedgeye/status/1268968382369497091?s=21
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I mean I’m always of the belief the numbers usually aren’t as good or as bad as headline reads. In this case, you are picking up PPP loans and a bunch of other noise. It’s definitely a positive report but not the home run that would require a press conference. Instead of paying folks out of the left pocket (unemployment), we’re paying them out of the right pocket (PPP) and claiming victory. When it comes to this stuff, administration isn’t dumb. 
 

The rehiring is definitely positive and does point to a V or U shape but still early. I should have listened to my instinct to just cover the shorts before the summer because you’ll get an immediate spike in demand. But what happens in a few months? 
 

Eventually the novelty of going back out fades along with peoples bank accounts. Of course, the one X factor is more stimulus. Pence was already talking about it but Trump didn’t say anything from what I could tell. Could make for an interesting election year conundrum. The numbers could be positive enough to keep Republicans from passing more stimulus but that could act as essentially tightening policy at this point. Conversely, do Democrats pass more stimulus and prop up the market more?

Either way, I like gold. There is probably a tight window where gold doesn’t work. Just enough stimulus, printing of money so as not to cause inflation but enough to get us out of this recession. Tighter window than they’ve been threading over the last 10 years but still in theory possible. Although the current stimulus only indirectly fixes the problem so will need more of it unless they change their tact. 

 
bshell27 said:
How are the RH trending stocks being coordinated?  Reddit threads?  Is there an RH forum somewhere?  

Not sure how this pump and dump is happening with RH, but it'd be nice to get in before it is top 10 on popularity tracker. 
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Everyhwere, even here in the FFA...I was the first to mention GNUS in the FFA and at least 5 FBGs tailed me.   My intent wasn't to pump and dump, but when people notice trends they share them.

It's more about people looking at RH trends and using them to their advantage.  I don't see any kind of conspiracy as much as I do a trend.  I may be naive and there could be some big/institutional money behind these plays, Cramer seems to think that there is.

 
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Betterbelieveit said:
Currently #3 on RH changes. These kids know the names of companies but have no idea what they are doing. I just spoke with several of the young employees in our marketing department. Most are on RH. Using name recognition only to pick stocks. They have no idea about the financials.
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Now it's #1. PRTY is one that I like as a penny stock. I usually don't pay attention to these but saw they restructured their debt and saved quite a bit. Has been on a tear lately. First quarter results on the 12th though so be careful.

 
-OZ- said:
I put the money in LRNZ instead. Just to make it an even 100 shares. This is a hold.
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Never heard of this, looks interesting. Basically a bunch of stocks I was too late on. 

One way I get stock ideas is to look at ETF and Mutual Fund portfolios and see what they own I never heard of and go take a look. In this case, the only one in LRNZ's Top Ten I never heard of was $PD. In this particular case, the stock looks kind of terrible at first glance. But doing this gives me a lot of good ideas I never would have had before, especially smaller and mid-caps.

 
McBokonon said:
Never heard of this, looks interesting. Basically a bunch of stocks I was too late on. 

One way I get stock ideas is to look at ETF and Mutual Fund portfolios and see what they own I never heard of and go take a look. In this case, the only one in LRNZ's Top Ten I never heard of was $PD. In this particular case, the stock looks kind of terrible at first glance. But doing this gives me a lot of good ideas I never would have had before, especially smaller and mid-caps.
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Yeah, that's my concern, but the technology isn't going anywhere. I'm only buying 100 shares and holding.

 
Started a boring long position - $TSN. Probably not for the traders in here but it seems like it's consolidating, safe dividend in the meantime. 

 
I feel this is like the tech bubble.   Stocks disconnected to economy.  I’m not complaining but made roughly 50% on Mor and aig in last 20 days...  

 
What's the best free online tool to compare several stocks.  Let's say I want to review the master list provided by @Todem to see which stocks are the farthest from their 52 week high, or the ones who remain closest to their 52 week low.  Any tool that can give me that information on one screen?

 
bcnfinance said:
Can you avoid all the complicated tax issues with $GLD by buying a company like $GOLD instead and still get relatively close correlations to price?
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I was trading $gold. Bought some at $25 and the same amount again when it broke $22.50.  Probably should have doubled down at the $22.50 level. Really should have avoided it all together and had that money in regular stocks

 
CR69 said:
This can't be right...

https://twitter.com/hedgeye/status/1268968382369497091?s=21
Click to expand...


McBokonon said:
I do suspect the numbers are probably being spun a little, but that's because [POLITICAL PART OF POST REDACTED BY HIGHLY EFFECTIVE BOARD SOFTWARE]

I'm thinking of skimming a few bucks off the top before close.
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A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. Here’s what happened.

When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that puts out the monthly jobs reports, said it was working to fix the problem.

“BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue,” said a note at the bottom of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.
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To be fair, they include this:

“You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount, not 99.9% discount, but 100% discount,” tweeted Jason Furman, the former top economist for former president Barack Obama. “BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number.”
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In any event, though this may have been just a BLS error, it was prudent to be a little suspicious. Still better than expected numbers, though, and I can buy it's hard to collect this data during a pandemic.

ETA: and kudos to that Hedgeye guy whose post you tweeted,  @CR69. He nailed the number.

ETA2: And I now I see he was just quoting the BLS's own words. Still, though.

 
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McBokonon said:
A ‘misclassification error’ made the May unemployment rate look better than it is. Here’s what happened.

To be fair, they include this:

In any event, though this may have been just a BLS error, it was prudent to be a little suspicious. Still better than expected numbers, though, and I can buy it's hard to collect this data during a pandemic.

ETA: and kudos to that Hedgeye guy whose post you tweeted,  @CR69. He nailed the number.

ETA2: And I now I see he was just quoting the BLS's own words. Still, though.
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Unemployment up means expenses go down,  STONKS go up on Monday.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Day trading this symbol is pretty dangerous. Either own it or avoid it. 
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I did own it and lost   Dollar costing down and as soon as I got the pop I sold. Essentially reduced my cost basis by 4% for the amount I was comfortable with. Pretty hard to get too excited about it trading at 80% of its peak when there were stocks on the board like the airlines and kohl’s and financials begging for a double up

 
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