Todem
Footballguy
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Stock Thread (38 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Nugget
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
If you've made money, I'd get out now. I'd think there is not likely a big premium since it's already jumped a bit due to the rumor. I'd think downside of no deal is way bigger than extra upside if sale is finalized.
Maybe it's my conspiracy theory, but it seems a little more organized and nefarious than FOMO. Could be the latter and the people running the which stock to enter and their friends are the early guys and the idiots reading where to jump are there whales and it's just more of a scam that's a little easier than milking money from the elderly via a phone call.
Again, it sounds like a conspiracy, but similar to some of the alt-coin scams, the buyer/seller are anonymous to a degree so as long as you have lined up enough people to buy at the price you want, you can go back and forth and pump it a bit. Something like a RH app would make it damn easy to do it from anywhere.
It certainly isn't that these are good stocks that people want to own for more than a couple days. Once the ride is over, a lot of money will be lost by the people holding the bag. I'm way to risk averse to be a bag holder. I'll stick with good stocks that hopefully do well or at worst something short term that is a real value, not a bankrupt company.
adonis
Footballguy
Any thoughts on AAPL's rise lately? I've been selling as it's been rising, which is a first as I've been buy and hold for AAPL for over a decade. The rumors/news that they'll be doing their own macbook chips instead of using Intel is certainly good for business, but it's hard to justify the intense swing.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
Very well could be. But you know some people are out there thinking "I want in on these huge gains!" I catch myself for a second thinking the same.
But, I'll just be boring. (With a little fast trading along the way, but not much)
matuski
Footballguy
Polish Hammer
made of glass
I bought in BLMN yesterday, but not MGM or SAVE. Today a day to get in on them? Any of your master list looking like a buy today?
Polish Hammer
made of glass
-delete-
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We don’t hear soon enough with only a few exceptions. I’m not talking about the merger stocks that are basically IPOs. I’m talking about the junk stuff. The gains and volumes in some cases are crazy and if we jumped in we are likely about to drop. I’m not going to take a 30-50% drop chance. DUO is down 38%. The people who bought at the start of the day are down 60%. The people who bought at yesterday’s high are down 80%. That’s way too big a risk. CHK got crushed yesterday and today.
McBokonon
Footballguy
There's another massive IPO coming up next week. Like with $FOUR, I put in for it and will likely get nothing.
$RPRX - Royalty Pharma. They fund trials and collect/purchase royalties.
Prospectus
Range is $25-$28 but who knows if it stays there and where it starts trading at. They intend to pay a dividend immediately (Prospectus said about 0.15 a share.) IPO guy on Seeking Alpha said to think of them like a Private Equity firm where 20% of profits will get distributed to shareholders.
$RPRX - Royalty Pharma. They fund trials and collect/purchase royalties.
Prospectus
Range is $25-$28 but who knows if it stays there and where it starts trading at. They intend to pay a dividend immediately (Prospectus said about 0.15 a share.) IPO guy on Seeking Alpha said to think of them like a Private Equity firm where 20% of profits will get distributed to shareholders.
GB AMZN. One of the reasons why I’ve actually started to think that retirement might not be so bad in 10 years! Having a good day all around today.
I thought it was overbought at 300. Wrong again but I'll keep repeating it. AAPL is overbought. Eventually, I'll be right.
sporthenry
Footballguy
At this point, just seems like folks are looking for places to hide. Complete reversal of the catch-up trade in IWM and the like. Assume folks realized they were getting ahead of themselves but had to put the money somewhere.
Paging Bossman: The NKLA July puts are looking juicy. When my brother gave me the tip and said "free money," it made me think of you. He was talking about January puts at $2.50 strike which are ridiculous. He's making some pennies off of those. I was looking at the July 17th puts on NKLA at a strike of $30 which represents well over a 50% drop for the share price. Those puts are selling for about $5.60 right now which is a nice ROI. Pony up $3000 in cash, sell one put and make over 18% on your investment in about six weeks. As always, invest at your own risk.
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Steeler
Footballguy
WINS gets noncompliance letter from NASDAQ: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3520670-wins-finance-gets-noncompliance-letter-from-nasdaq?mod=mw_quote_news
STONKS GO UP
Jayrok
Footballguy
Chinese STONKS go WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY up lately... for a short time. Then you can hear the lamentations of the bag holders.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
sporthenry
Footballguy
I'd be very careful throwing naked options around. The one thing the last one had going for it was the low $ price. Of course nobody can see how NKLA could drop to $5 in a month but if it does, you'd be out ~4x what you put into it. So you sell a contract for $560 then have to pony up $2k at the end.
Would say a bull (credit) put spread would be much better if you're not trying to blow up your account. Can sell the Jul 17 30P for 5.60 and buy the July1720P for 1.90. You get 3.70 upfront. B/e at ~$26 and most you can lose is $630.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Just looking back, I changed from broad market to having 13 companies in my Roth IRA two weeks ago. All of these are large well known companies, which are unlikely to have quick HUGE gains.
Best returns - SE, DFS, WWW, and TSLA all over 20%.
Worst returns - GOOGL, DIS at ~1% gain.
Average up 14% for the month (includes 2 weeks before changing the portfolio)
Wife's Roth IRA, mostly broad market, is up 9% in that same time.
Two weeks isn't nearly long enough to really extrapolate anything, but I'm finding the comparison to be interesting.
I'm still trying to decide when and if to rebalance.
Best returns - SE, DFS, WWW, and TSLA all over 20%.
Worst returns - GOOGL, DIS at ~1% gain.
Average up 14% for the month (includes 2 weeks before changing the portfolio)
Wife's Roth IRA, mostly broad market, is up 9% in that same time.
Two weeks isn't nearly long enough to really extrapolate anything, but I'm finding the comparison to be interesting.
I'm still trying to decide when and if to rebalance.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
It’s all BS. Musical chairs except that All the chairs will get pulled out at the end. You just need to stop playing to win.
I can’t paste a picture, but ever since I’ve gone to individual stocks, my returns have way outpaced the S&P. I’m up 50-60% across my stock accounts the past year and that includes a bulk of them I bought in October/November and a small amount in March. S&P is up a little over 10%. May not always happen all the time but there’s a lot of dogs and like we’ve seen they have their day but I think over years the great growing companies will do best. I also have all my 401ks in market funds to sort of balance out. I’m probably way too aggressive but I’ve got plenty of time.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I’ve trimmed my position a little twice and I’m still pretty overweight AAPL and it’s my largest position. At this point I’m just enjoying the ride. It’s prone to sizable dips so if that happens, I might add more. If it wasn’t already such a large part of my portfolio I’d add on the way up which I’ve done before.
beef
Footballguy
It's like a bunch of triple leveraged ETFs had an orgy drug party and spewed out some 100x leveraged stocks. Pending heart attacks likely.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
-OZ-
Footballguy
These last two are really good points, and I might even move my wife's IRA into individual companies more than she already has (she has HD, AMZN, and BRK-B, 10% in each, and each has returned 10-11%). Having 15% in bonds has kept her return down lately.
Even if we both went all into individual companies (we won't, at the very least we'll be keeping a few focused ETFs) the TSPs will almost certainly always exceed our Roth IRAs by a fair bit.
We can be aggressive, but I'll always be mostly buy and hold.
Lol. DUO now down 60% on the day and it opened up over 70 and is now at 18. In one day it went from a little over 10 to 129 and one day later it’s at 18. Try and time that right. It’s like TVIX on steroids.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Been holding for over a decade also. I still just continue to hold AAPL and add on corrections. If nothing else, AAPL and GOOGL are solid holds for me for the amount of cash they have. Started a BRK-B position during the downturn on a similar thesis that cash is king, especially in times of crisis.
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I’ve got probably close to 30 stocks now so sort of diversified but all are 3-5 year+ windows. Not all will work out but the winners should carry those. For example, while I don’t expect these types of returns that quick, I did buy 4 stocks at the same time for a small allocation (about $2k each) during the down turn. One of those was LK which is down 80%. Still up 50% overall on that $8k even with losing almost everything in one. Again, not typical returns but sort of explains the rewards that can drown out an almost total loss.
I bought a little FMCI and OPES for fun as well so we’ll see how that goes.
bshell27
Footballguy
I've been trying to go through Robintrack, but it seems to be a waste of time to try and catch one of these stocks rocketing up. As soon as it reports a popularity increase, it's already up 300% and you missed it.
Someone is banking. As it was said before, I hope they can figure out who is causing/doing this.
Someone is banking. As it was said before, I hope they can figure out who is causing/doing this.
sporthenry
Footballguy
I know I've been bearish all along but now I'm more alarmist. Maybe watching too many bankrupt stocks but that is troubling. I started trimming my positions, long and shorts. While much has been made about the divorce of the market from the economy, at this point, it is completely divorced from fundamentals. This could go on for a while but when it ends, it's likely to be uglier than just a normal sell-off. As far as I'm concerned, this rally at this point is purely technical driven from all the money in the system. Velocity is way down, which would be expected given the amount of money just dumped into the system but that is usually a bad sign. Seems like all that money is just finding its way into the market, one way or another. So either that money gets pulled out as economic activity restarts or it stays in there and we don't get the jump in economic activity. Seems like a lose/lose to me.
Not to mention, companies have taken out hundreds of billions in debt. Of course a lot of that is a liquidity buffer for if things go wrong like 12-18 months wise. But debt detracts from the value of the company and you likely just can't net out the cash they raised. Perhaps they don't need it all but will be a while before they're making money again. NCLH's stock is still down ~60% but they just raised ~$2bn in cash. Said they have 18 months of liquidity in 0 revenue environment (~$3.5bn in liquidity) so implies burn of ~$200mn / month. So 3 months is $600mn of cash burn, 6 months is $1.2bn. As of right now, their EV appears to be only ~25% below what it was on Feb 19th. 6 months of burning cash and it's only ~19%, 12 months and it's ~12%. So when you look at it from that perspective, it's not nearly the bargain of 50% off.
Is it really prone to sizable dips? I thought AAPL has been pretty much of a stalwart for the past several years and that it often does not dip as much as the broader market.
I can't speak as an expert here, but as I understand it, all of these RH trades are routed through a clearinghouse and high frequency traders have access to these before the trades roll through and are able to take positions accordingly. There is nothing illegal about this as the clearing houses are needed by the major brokerages to fill retail orders and best prices, however the high frequency traders are able to capitalize on this when they see huge surges of trades coming through on certain stocks and jumping the gun so to speak.
