Agreed. I mean I've been wrong this whole time so why not triple down. But the market got way ahead of itself. It seems like retail was leading this last leg higher, buying airlines and cruises and flipping the normal rise/reward on its head. Todem mentions buying these stocks for 2-3 year plus time horizons but he probably got 50%+ of his expected returns within a few weeks. Seems like he rightfully sold a bunch at the higher levels too since buying an airline at 40% off while TSA data is 85% down y/y doesn't seem appealing to me. CCL was just 40% off its YTD highs despite having raised ~$6bn in debt and converts (not to mention raising $575mn in equity at $8). Think about that for a second, they raised equity at $8. People love pointing to what insiders do. Now obviously they needed to raise what they could and maybe the outlook looks better but is it really 3x better than when they raised equity at $8?
Putting my tinfoil hat on though. With ~20% of options expiring next week and much been made about the imbalanced put/call ratio, I could see a nasty sell off again especially if it burns retails hands. As someone posted the piece on Gamma, I expect we'll hear a lot about that especially in a sell off. It seems like market makers could end up short gamma if sell-off continues (saw 3,064 as a key point for that). With dealers long the underlying as retail starts selling call options, they'll start selling equity. Not to mention, think max pain next week seems lower. Offsetting that is the market makers seem long indexes and given vol is still elevated, it won't be as nasty a sell-off compared to Feb when vol was low. Either way, bears watching, pun intended.