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Stock Thread (17 Viewers)

What do you guys think about QQQ as an ETF in an IRA over the next 15 or so years? My advisor is recommending it as I’m opening a new IRA for my wife. She’s 42. 
I love this move.  For a 15 year outlook--tech is probably going to dominate even more than it is now.  Right now--8 out of our 10 biggest companies in the US are tech and they will most likely keep growing.   For the horizon that you have in mind--I think it's a great option.  

 
I have puts on DAL and UAL as well. Bought them a little too early (like my first and second put buys on MGM) but they're certainly looking better right now than they did on Friday...

ETA: I'm not sure either on capital but that was my understanding as well. I primarily based my put buying on the run up and the fares I was seeing when checking various routes. Not to mention TSA numbers are still down like 85% YoY. 
Yeah but you're looking at the wrong thing. While TSA numbers are still down 85% YoY, they're up 24% WoW. That's exponential growth. I do think folks are forgetting the first part. Or maybe I just need our good friend Warrior to remind me it's all priced in. In a normal market, buying the airlines at depressed value for a 3-year recovery may be the play and perhaps it was a month or two ago. But now we've accelerated that return and the risk/reward isn't nearly as positive. 

 
Yeah but you're looking at the wrong thing. While TSA numbers are still down 85% YoY, they're up 24% WoW. That's exponential growth. I do think folks are forgetting the first part. Or maybe I just need our good friend Warrior to remind me it's all priced in. In a normal market, buying the airlines at depressed value for a 3-year recovery may be the play and perhaps it was a month or two ago. But now we've accelerated that return and the risk/reward isn't nearly as positive. 
That was my thought process, I just jumped the gun a little bit haha. 

It looks like my theory on casino stocks may end up being right. My MGM 9/20 20p are looking real nice. Bought em on Monday, woot.  Still kicking myself for not buying calls a month ago though. 

 
Question for the options guys- I have some HTZ $3 puts. If they are delisted before the contract expires, are the options exercised at $3, which I would collect at a profit of $3 minus whatever the OTC price is? So for example, say I have 5 $3 puts that expire in July. HTZ is delisted this month and is trading on the pink sheets for $0.25. Would my profit then be $1500 ($3x100x5) minus $125 ($0.25x100x5)?

Edit: This isn't factoring in the premium that I already paid, just trying to figure out what would happen on the back end.

 
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After buying warrants, I decided maybe I should have a clue what they are.  :lol:

This reddit post helps.

Only question I have now that I can't find the answer to is - how will I know when NKLA enables the exercise or sets a redemption notice?  Will etrade tell me?
Asking again.. for the life of me I can't find how it is I am supposed to be aware of the redemption/exercise date on warrants.

 
You have a scenario where the government is printing money to no end and an environment to where rates will have to stay crazy low for a long while.  If rates don't stay low-- not only is the country screwed--but Wall Street is also screwed with all of the corporate debt that is in the markets.  This is pretty bullish for precious metals--namely gold and silver.  Because they are already at high levels--there will be days where there is profit taking--but at this point--anybody that has a decent investment in the markets needs to have some exposure to precious metals.  

Edit---this is just a gut instinct--but I also like the Canadian Dollar long term. 
Canadian dollar has shown some recent strengthening against the US $.  Was .70c a couple weeks back, now .74c so rallying.  

But Canada is a resource driven country with huge exposure to oil and gas. They've been pulverized recently so I'm not sure if you're more bullish on Canada or more bearish on the US dollar to want to go long the CAD? 

Agreed on precious metals.  Silver has come roaring back after getting shellacked in March. I still think a sustained upward move is in the cards for silver; it's been in a TIGHT trading range for what, 12 years?  

 
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Question for the options guys- I have some HTZ $3 puts. If they are delisted before the contract expires, are the options exercised at $3, which I would collect at a profit of $3 minus whatever the OTC price is? So for example, say I have 5 $3 puts that expire in July. HTZ is delisted this month and is trading on the pink sheets for $0.25. Would my profit then be $1500 ($3x100x5) minus $125 ($0.25x100x5)?

Edit: This isn't factoring in the premium that I already paid, just trying to figure out what would happen on the back end.
No. The options will still trade once they are delisted. No new options contracts will be created once it is delisted. So liquidity could become an issue but I’d suspect you won’t care that much about it. B/A may not be super tight but the stock should also trade in a much tighter window. 
 

Besides the inability to create new contracts, the big thing with delisting is you get rid of RH and others who can’t or won’t buy OTC. 

 
Canadian dollar has shown some recent strengthening against the US $.  Was .70c a couple weeks back, now .74c so rallying.  

But Canada is a resource driven country with huge exposure to oil and gas. They've been pulverized recently so I'm not sure if you're more bullish on Canada or more bearish on the US dollar to want to go long the CAD? 

Agreed on precious metals.  Silver has come roaring back after getting shellacked in March. I still think a sustained upward move is in the cards for silver; it's been in a TIGHT trading range for what, 12 years?  
In regards to the Canadian Dollar--I'm far more bearish on the US dollar than I am bullish on the Canadian one.  I just think that the Canadian dollar will be far more stable while the value of our dollar will drop for years to come.  Our national debt to GDP ratio is like 20% greater than Canada's and I can see that percentage rising.  I don't think our government printing of currency is close to being done.   I feel like the unemployment/reduced employment picture is far worse than what the last job report indicates.   Lots of large companies made deals with the government for funding with the caveat that those companies cannot lay employees off until September.   In a few months--you'll see more waves of people losing jobs--and I also think that there will most likely be second and third waves of covid going round which could limit how much hiring businesses will do.  I could see the government injecting money into the economy for a while--but my biggest concern is that they actually do it in a way that helps.    

Generally speaking--I think if you gave big businesses a trillion dollars and gave small buisnesses a trillion dollars--that you will find that the small buisnesses will end up expanding their buisnesses and will end up using a far greater percentage of that money for employment. While   I think larger companies would use some of that money for hiring--but they'd also use a lot of that money to find ways to automate and reduce costs.  With so many small businesses being wiped out in the US--and with large companies figuring out that having lots of employees is risky--I think they are more likely and incentivized to spend money on this automation than they are hiring.  This could lead to years of relatively high unemployment--and this in turn could lead to the government to keep printing to support the economy.  I wouln't be shocked to see some sort of infrastructure package in the medium term. 

I've been a believer in the precious metals for close to 20 years.   I've been buying silver since it was like $6/oz.   There were a few years where it spiked to like $35-45/oz but i didn't really accumulate much at those levels. In fact--I ended up taking some profits at those times.   In general I like both gold and silver--but silver does have some distinct upside in the sense that it is used in a lot of electronics.  If this automation boom that I described occurs---silver will be needed for to create a lot of the equipment.  Even people that will be working from home will probably need to upgrade their computers, tablets, devices--and those devices will also require silver.  I do think that does give silver a bit of a nice floor 

 
This is a healthy thing. We knew the market was getting a little ahead of itself. Here is chance for some to grab some high quality that ran up a little. Like JPM. It can go sub 100 today and to me under a 100 is a good value long term.

I will average down our SAVE and MGM trade. (I have enough BLMN) Sit back and wait for the next recovery rally then sell into it with those names.

 
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Man this RH stuff is fun. JFIN is a Chinese company. Read the news and a couple days ago an analyst downgraded the stock because revenues could drop 36%. Well, this morning they announce and revenues are down 57%. Stock up 96% yesterday after the downgrade and up 5% premarket. Some of these stocks have had wild ups in premarket only to go down during the day. This report would tank a normal stock and so would a downgrade.

 
This is fun. I can get back into CCL below where I sold it a week ago. 

This is a fun market to trade in high sensitive consumer travel and leisure names. 

 
And i think this is actualization rather than panic
It is a lot of things. But what it really is???

Uncertainty. 

We talked about 7-10% pulls backs a few pages ago and this may be a little 5-6% here....then a snap back etc etc etc. 

I am far more optimistic than most. No question. 

 
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Just read something that basically said that stocks that will benefit from things opening up are all tanking now.  Nothing makes sense.

SAVE was like 8 bucks three weeks ago.  Maybe that was the time to buy 🤑😱😱😥

Ugh.  Damn I sure picked the wrong freaking day to take some positions (tuesday). 

Well, I guess I will buy some more stuff at 10-15% down again today

 
In regards to the Canadian Dollar--I'm far more bearish on the US dollar than I am bullish on the Canadian one.  I just think that the Canadian dollar will be far more stable while the value of our dollar will drop for years to come.  Our national debt to GDP ratio is like 20% greater than Canada's and I can see that percentage rising.  I don't think our government printing of currency is close to being done.   I feel like the unemployment/reduced employment picture is far worse than what the last job report indicates.   Lots of large companies made deals with the government for funding with the caveat that those companies cannot lay employees off until September.   In a few months--you'll see more waves of people losing jobs--and I also think that there will most likely be second and third waves of covid going round which could limit how much hiring businesses will do.  I could see the government injecting money into the economy for a while--but my biggest concern is that they actually do it in a way that helps.    

Generally speaking--I think if you gave big businesses a trillion dollars and gave small buisnesses a trillion dollars--that you will find that the small buisnesses will end up expanding their buisnesses and will end up using a far greater percentage of that money for employment. While   I think larger companies would use some of that money for hiring--but they'd also use a lot of that money to find ways to automate and reduce costs.  With so many small businesses being wiped out in the US--and with large companies figuring out that having lots of employees is risky--I think they are more likely and incentivized to spend money on this automation than they are hiring.  This could lead to years of relatively high unemployment--and this in turn could lead to the government to keep printing to support the economy.  I wouln't be shocked to see some sort of infrastructure package in the medium term. 

I've been a believer in the precious metals for close to 20 years.   I've been buying silver since it was like $6/oz.   There were a few years where it spiked to like $35-45/oz but i didn't really accumulate much at those levels. In fact--I ended up taking some profits at those times.   In general I like both gold and silver--but silver does have some distinct upside in the sense that it is used in a lot of electronics.  If this automation boom that I described occurs---silver will be needed for to create a lot of the equipment.  Even people that will be working from home will probably need to upgrade their computers, tablets, devices--and those devices will also require silver.  I do think that does give silver a bit of a nice floor 
I’m just trying to find my blind spot with precious metals. The only fear, and Gundlach mentioned it, is what you described with employment is deflationary. So if we’re in for a period of deflation,  what does that mean for gold and precious metals? I suppose part of my reasoning for gold is just to protect my value against dollar depreciation and it seems like golds purchasing power increases during times of deflation but evidence is limited. Gold and the like seem like a win/win for me. I guess the worst case is the Goldilocks economy but I’m trying to figure out how I lose vs just holding the $. 

 
Just read something that basically said that stocks that will benefit from things opening up are all tanking now.  Nothing makes sense.

SAVE was like 8 bucks three weeks ago.  Maybe that was the time to buy 🤑😱😱😥

Ugh.  Damn I sure picked the wrong freaking day to take some positions (tuesday). 

Well, I guess I will buy some more stuff at 10-15% down again today
Hey we bought it on a 15% down day.....it is simply a huge yo yo stock. 

I am buying more SAVE today......and that is it. MGM and BLMN I can sit tight. 

It will be fine....now you need to stay patient and not panic on those stocks.

We will get another bounce again.....no doubt. 

 
In regards to the Canadian Dollar--I'm far more bearish on the US dollar than I am bullish on the Canadian one.  I just think that the Canadian dollar will be far more stable while the value of our dollar will drop for years to come.  Our national debt to GDP ratio is like 20% greater than Canada's and I can see that percentage rising.  I don't think our government printing of currency is close to being done.   I feel like the unemployment/reduced employment picture is far worse than what the last job report indicates.   Lots of large companies made deals with the government for funding with the caveat that those companies cannot lay employees off until September.   In a few months--you'll see more waves of people losing jobs--and I also think that there will most likely be second and third waves of covid going round which could limit how much hiring businesses will do.  I could see the government injecting money into the economy for a while--but my biggest concern is that they actually do it in a way that helps.    

Generally speaking--I think if you gave big businesses a trillion dollars and gave small buisnesses a trillion dollars--that you will find that the small buisnesses will end up expanding their buisnesses and will end up using a far greater percentage of that money for employment. While   I think larger companies would use some of that money for hiring--but they'd also use a lot of that money to find ways to automate and reduce costs.  With so many small businesses being wiped out in the US--and with large companies figuring out that having lots of employees is risky--I think they are more likely and incentivized to spend money on this automation than they are hiring.  This could lead to years of relatively high unemployment--and this in turn could lead to the government to keep printing to support the economy.  I wouln't be shocked to see some sort of infrastructure package in the medium term. 

I've been a believer in the precious metals for close to 20 years.   I've been buying silver since it was like $6/oz.   There were a few years where it spiked to like $35-45/oz but i didn't really accumulate much at those levels. In fact--I ended up taking some profits at those times.   In general I like both gold and silver--but silver does have some distinct upside in the sense that it is used in a lot of electronics.  If this automation boom that I described occurs---silver will be needed for to create a lot of the equipment.  Even people that will be working from home will probably need to upgrade their computers, tablets, devices--and those devices will also require silver.  I do think that does give silver a bit of a nice floor 
Can I just go to my bank and but a stack of Canadian dollars "for vacation?" Any idea of the juice? Or where best to buy?

 
This is fun. I can get back into CCL below where I sold it a week ago. 

This is a fun market to trade in high sensitive consumer travel and leisure names. 
Question.  Do you plan to buy more SAVE and MGM at the open, or if/when it drops more during the day.  Or do you buy a little at the open and then a little more if it goes lower.  Just curious how you handle that when things open way down and you want to cost average down.

 
What do you think the Robin Hooders buying Hertz say now about it?

Like we know it’s worth $0, this isn’t a secret, but somehow they got it to $5. Can I still short it here to under a buck today? I’m not going to, but I think it makes sense.

 
Other than the simple fact that we needed a pullback anyway, if I had to go on CNBC and give my punditry, I’d say it’s a combination of traders interpreting the Fed’s “we’re not even thinking about interest rates” as “we’re so screwed” as well as the COVID spikes happening in several places. Even if we don’t shut down again, if that keeps happening, people will shut themselves down to a large extent. Tomorrow is options expiration, too.

ETA, no, tomorrow is just weekly expiration.

 
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Other than the simple fact that we needed a pullback anyway, if I had to go on CNBC and give my punditry, I’d say it’s a combination of traders interpreting the Fed’s “we’re not even thinking about interest rates” as “we’re so screwed” as well as the COVID spikes happening in several places. Even if we don’t shut down again, if that keeps happening, people will shut themselves down to a large extent. Tomorrow is options expiration, too.
Covid spikes and an overbought market. Think some money is freeing up ahead of earnings when we get some guidance, that’s when we’ll see how expensive this market is... 

 
No. The options will still trade once they are delisted. No new options contracts will be created once it is delisted. So liquidity could become an issue but I’d suspect you won’t care that much about it. B/A may not be super tight but the stock should also trade in a much tighter window. 
 

Besides the inability to create new contracts, the big thing with delisting is you get rid of RH and others who can’t or won’t buy OTC. 
Oh wow, thanks.

 
Question.  Do you plan to buy more SAVE and MGM at the open, or if/when it drops more during the day.  Or do you buy a little at the open and then a little more if it goes lower.  Just curious how you handle that when things open way down and you want to cost average down.
I am going to let the selloff breath a little here today. There may be some panic at the open, profit taking and then let’s see how it goes.

I am ot a professional day trader.....I rarely day trade. But these names have been easy to trade. 

If the market closes down say 750 points today....that is a 5% correction off the top two days ago. Just like that we have a dip. It could go lower Friday as people do not want to hold into the weekend. Or it could rally hard by end of day today....or tomorrow.

As far as SAVE....I will post here when I buy more. I typically put in a limit price and let it hit. If I see it may get away I move it up a few ticks. I am never penny wise and dollar foolish when I have conviction on a position. 

I do not put heavy money into these names. For example....I only have 500 shares of SAVE and will add another 500 today. That is it. MGM I have 100 shares already and BLMN I have 3K shares.....this is discretionary gambling money for me. The rest of my money is invested long term into the master list and others (I have over 40 positions already we are talking decades of holdings here).

Sit tight......the worst is far behind us....this is a natural breather in the market. It was due. And I probably should have known better......but those names were selling off quite strong Tuesday in a positive market. I felt hey we can trade them again.

And we will.

Dollar cost average them down today and be patient. 

Also looking at adding CCL again below where I sold it. Will let everyone know for those that care.

 
It’s possible today turns into one of those 1k point drop days.

Panic isn’t a strategy, so sit tight and make a plan. Sellers might be ready to come back.

 
Other than the simple fact that we needed a pullback anyway, if I had to go on CNBC and give my punditry, I’d say it’s a combination of traders interpreting the Fed’s “we’re not even thinking about interest rates” as “we’re so screwed” as well as the COVID spikes happening in several places. Even if we don’t shut down again, if that keeps happening, people will shut themselves down to a large extent. Tomorrow is options expiration, too.

ETA, no, tomorrow is just weekly expiration.
The Fed stating it is locking in a zero rate until 2022 (with a non zero chance of negative rates implied) would be quite a wake up call in a normal world.

 
And i think this is actualization rather than panic
That's my thought. The market is getting back to where it probably should be.

It is a lot of things. But what it really is???

Uncertainty. 

We talked about 7-10% pulls backs a few pages ago and this may be a little 5-6% here....then a snap back etc etc etc. 

I am far more optimistic than most. No question. 
Agreed on all.  

The only question that matters (or should really) - what's your time horizon? Day traders can either be happy to buy at a discount or sell on a gain. Long term holders shouldn't really care much.

 
Made a small profit on MGM and BLMN yesterday - do I sell them at the open and rebuy at the dip or just hold?

 
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And i think this is actualization rather than panic
Agreed. I mean I've been wrong this whole time so why not triple down. But the market got way ahead of itself. It seems like retail was leading this last leg higher, buying airlines and cruises and flipping the normal rise/reward on its head. Todem mentions buying these stocks for 2-3 year plus time horizons but he probably got 50%+ of his expected returns within a few weeks. Seems like he rightfully sold a bunch at the higher levels too since buying an airline at 40% off while TSA data is 85% down y/y doesn't seem appealing to me. CCL was just 40% off its YTD highs despite having raised ~$6bn in debt and converts (not to mention raising $575mn in equity at $8). Think about that for a second, they raised equity at $8. People love pointing to what insiders do. Now obviously they needed to raise what they could and maybe the outlook looks better but is it really 3x better than when they raised equity at $8?

Putting my tinfoil hat on though. With ~20% of options expiring next week and much has been made about the imbalanced put/call ratio, I could see a nasty sell off again especially if it burns retails hands. As someone posted the piece on Gamma, I expect we'll hear a lot about that especially in a sell off. It seems like market makers could end up short gamma if sell-off continues (saw 3,064 as a key point for that). With dealers long the underlying as retail starts selling call options, they'll start selling equity. Not to mention, think max pain next week seems lower. Offsetting that is the market makers seem long indexes and given vol is still elevated, it won't be as nasty a sell-off compared to Feb when vol was low. Either way, bears watching, pun intended. 

 
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Agreed. I mean I've been wrong this whole time so why not triple down. But the market got way ahead of itself. It seems like retail was leading this last leg higher, buying airlines and cruises and flipping the normal rise/reward on its head. Todem mentions buying these stocks for 2-3 year plus time horizons but he probably got 50%+ of his expected returns within a few weeks. Seems like he rightfully sold a bunch at the higher levels too since buying an airline at 40% off while TSA data is 85% down y/y doesn't seem appealing to me. CCL was just 40% off its YTD highs despite having raised ~$6bn in debt and converts (not to mention raising $575mn in equity at $8). Think about that for a second, they raised equity at $8. People love pointing to what insiders do. Now obviously they needed to raise what they could and maybe the outlook looks better but is it really 3x better than when they raised equity at $8?

Putting my tinfoil hat on though. With ~20% of options expiring next week and much been made about the imbalanced put/call ratio, I could see a nasty sell off again especially if it burns retails hands. As someone posted the piece on Gamma, I expect we'll hear a lot about that especially in a sell off. It seems like market makers could end up short gamma if sell-off continues (saw 3,064 as a key point for that). With dealers long the underlying as retail starts selling call options, they'll start selling equity. Not to mention, think max pain next week seems lower. Offsetting that is the market makers seem long indexes and given vol is still elevated, it won't be as nasty a sell-off compared to Feb when vol was low. Either way, bears watching, pun intended. 
I think S&P breaks under 2850 within a week. Maybe the skid will slow down then. To me the market often seems irrational, but what I've seen lately, particularly the airline rise were even beyond the expected irrationality. RH ignorance manipulated beautifully by daytraders and pros has elevated the market at least 10%, maybe 30% from where it should be, imo. 

 
Just read something that basically said that stocks that will benefit from things opening up are all tanking now.  Nothing makes sense.

SAVE was like 8 bucks three weeks ago.  Maybe that was the time to buy 🤑😱😱😥

Ugh.  Damn I sure picked the wrong freaking day to take some positions (tuesday). 

Well, I guess I will buy some more stuff at 10-15% down again today
I think those stocks went on a run in anticipation of the opening. Kind of the standard buy the rumor and sell the news. At the end of the day these are companies that have been clearly hurt and may not be as strong as they were pre-CV and they weren’t really great long term stocks IMHO. Look at SAVE. It’s peak was 2015 and even before CV 5 years later it wasn’t close to that peak. That’s not a stock I want to be in unless it’s at $8 and you’re riding the value train. Could still be money to be made, but I’ll personally be buying other stuff. I bought some stocks on Tuesday for 3-5 years, probably should have waited a bit but oh well, I won’t touch them for a while, hopefully, because selling early isn’t good. Still have about 10% cash so ready to deploy that if I see some bargains. I’m watching LVGO and a couple others. Should have bought that on the big dip, tripled since then SMH. I was being way too cautious thinking dip 2 might happen.

 
On the huge up days, my performance lags a little, on the down days I'm always ahead. When the market just drifts higher, I'm about inline with market performance. It's my comfort zone, I'll miss out on some, but I'm perfectly hedged and very comfortable. 
Need GOLD to run a little today to soften the blow from everything else. 

 
LEN will prob be one of my largest purchases on a pullback. The shift from cities to the burbs is happening, I expect them to capitalize over the next decade. 

*** I own a decent chunk from sub $50, but I want more.

ETA: KBH is another I like

 
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Looks like BLMN missed on earnings
That was fully expected....how can it not be expected. 

The market is taking a breather today and maybe tomorrow.....as expected, as foretold by many here. Par for the course. 

 
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So I really wasn't expecting things to move this quickly and now I'm not sure what to do with my 9/20 MGM 20p contracts lol. 

 
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That was fully expected....how can it not be expected. 

The market is taking a breather today and maybe tomorrow.....as expected, as foretold by many here. Par for the course. 
The problem is we have no idea if this is going to last a day or two, a week or two, or a month or two. This market remains mostly sentiment based, and sentiment is very fickle.

 
The problem is we have no idea if this is going to last a day or two, a week or two, or a month or two. This market remains mostly sentiment based, and sentiment is very fickle.
Very true. But judging by this market the last two months.....it is throwing a temper tantrum. And the speed that this market moves in now? We could have a 10% correction over two days.....and bam we move higher again with people value hunting. 

Things are in a different world now on the speed of the market. 

The emotional swings are insane......so let’s take advantage of them.

 
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