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Stock Thread (41 Viewers)

jvdesigns2002 said:
For those of whom got into Draftkings and that are up a bit (once again thank you @TripItUp ). Are any of you getting worried about the possibility of there being no sports?  A week or two ago--I felt confident that we would have the remainder of the NBA season, most likely a shortened MLB season, and a fanless NFL season---and now it seems like there is some doubt creeping into all of those things happening.  I'm contemplating taking some profits and maybe just looking to buy back in again cheaper. 

Secondly--I'm not in bloomin brands as I'm generally not a huge fan of theirs.  I think if I wanted to get in a food play--I'd probably lean towards a Starbucks, Chipotle, or McDonalds---but I understand that most of you are basically buying and selling the cycles on the repeated patterns it tends to make.  Just thought this map of their locations might be something that you guys might want to look at. If you look at the the states where covid is spreading rapidly and see how many locations they have in them--it's pretty concentrated. Florida, Texas, Arizona, California just to name a few. If these states pull back on opening up and place restrictions of 25-50% capacity--it could get ugly for bloomin.   My guess is that they might actually be more profitable only being open for delivery or carry out than they are having open dining rooms at 25-50% capacity.  The additional staffing costs, clean up costs--full sanitation protocols+the need for dishwashers, and increased liabilities for a business that already runs on tight margins could be painful in the short to medium term.  I think that the buying and relatively quick re-flipping that a lot of you are doing is probably the wise and safe play.  

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+map+of+bloomin+brands+locations&prmd=misvn&sxsrf=ALeKk00id4e1NGRqwIoN37mkCOCKC_ms3A:1592604030449&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj1nYKs8I7qAhWPrZ4KHWApBosQ_AUoAnoECBIQAg&biw=1024&bih=672#imgrc=oPASHN9emqX2FM
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Second offering today was at 40. No one is selling those shares anytime soon at a loss

 
sporthenry said:
"As of May 1, 2020, our Sportsbook app and website are available in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and West Virginia."

While it won't look great for optics and I own a little DKNG, now view it as a hedge to my short of $PENN. Does a shortened season in 7 states really matter? Now I think the thing is wildly overvalued so maybe that brings it back to Earth. Or maybe DFS is that big but I was of the belief that DFS is a decelerating business with a much smaller market size. I know some bulls pump DFS but don't think most here were pumping that. 
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My concern is that there seems to be doubt creeping in about any of the three major sports happening at all anymore.  That would be detrimental to all stocks that are exposed to sports betting.  There are NBA players that worry that coming back will take away from the societal uprising that is occurring at the moment. Also--they are thinking about playing in Florida--whose covid cases are rising exponentially.   The MLB owner and players union seem to be at an impasse--and if the season gets short enough--many players are going to say the risk is not worth the reward with what will be vastly reduced salaries.   There have already been issues with the notion that Football can safely return.  The giant roster sizes and the number of periphery personel required would almost require daily tests for entire staffs which can get extremely difficult and extremely expensive.   I'm not saying that these seasons won't happen-but I absolutely think they are far from a guarantee. My confidence level in any of them happening has diminished moderately in the past week. 

 
Can we speculate on CYDY? It’s spent the better part of the last 6 weeks between $2.80 & $3.20, then in the last 11 days on nothing we’ve gone from $2.80 to $3.68. That’s 31% on nothing, and very close to the previous high. If someone doesn’t know something, then what can we attribute this move to?

Shorts covering before data releases? Buyers coming in on hopes? Idk, I can’t figure this one out. 

 
Walking Boot said:
Marginally different goals in the funds... Same minimum investment on each (Vanguard recently got rid of the 10K minimum for Admiral funds and made them the same as regular ones). VDADX has a lower expense ratio and is the one that VIG is paired to. Depends on your account type and goals and minimums, etc, as to whether you want to to ETF or Mutual Fund. 

VDIGX is made up of 40 companies that have a specific criteria for growing dividends, VDADX is 225 companies with a slightly different (broader) criteria for inclusion regarding growing dividends over time. VDADX is "passively managed" and tracks the NASDAQ US Dividend Achievers Select Index (formerly known as Dividend Achievers Select Index) specifically. VDIGX is the Vanguard homebrew version that is more actively managed.

Looking at their recent returns over 1-3-5 years, though, it's a narrow difference between the two as far as results.
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Thanks for this detailed response, do you have a personal preference going with a fund vs ETF? I’ve been getting into a lot of Vanguard but there’s been no strategy of find vs etf and wonder if I should have one?

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Can we speculate on CYDY? It’s spent the better part of the last 6 weeks between $2.80 & $3.20, then in the last 11 days on nothing we’ve gone from $2.80 to $3.68. That’s 31% on nothing, and very close to the previous high. If someone doesn’t know something, then what can we attribute this move to?

Shorts covering before data releases? Buyers coming in on hopes? Idk, I can’t figure this one out. 
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Institutions got the word that uplisting is around the corner.

 
berndog said:
Do you recommend WFC over BAC because of the difference in the dividend?

I do worry WFC will continue to get hit with fines and increased scrutiny from the feds similar to BAC  experienced 10 years ago. 
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WFC is trading at 50% of it's price at the beginning of the year.  BAC is at 70%.  That's a 40% premium.  Are your worries based on something new since Jan/Feb?  If not, would that have already been baked into the price then. 

BassNBrew said:
Someone else recommend BZQ and I've done well with it.  It's a against the Brazil market.  It's down today even though TZA is up.  26000 cover cases reported by them today.  This looks like a good entry point to me.
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55,000 new cases in Brazil today.  

 
I’m not saying I have the fear, but stress tests are coming up and a lot of people think that if any major bank has to cut its dividend, it’ll be Wells. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Can we speculate on CYDY? It’s spent the better part of the last 6 weeks between $2.80 & $3.20, then in the last 11 days on nothing we’ve gone from $2.80 to $3.68. That’s 31% on nothing, and very close to the previous high. If someone doesn’t know something, then what can we attribute this move to?

Shorts covering before data releases? Buyers coming in on hopes? Idk, I can’t figure this one out. 
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I think it's still undervalued for a drug that shows this much promise and has shown this much anectodal evidence.  For whatever reason it has remained a secret.  Probably a combination of being on the OTC, not coming from Big Pharma, and because there is a bunch of other noise surrounding treatments and vaxinations for Covid-19.

I think we could be on the edge of having a 'wonder' drug come onto the market from a little company with 18 employees.  And we are all in early (thanks to Chet).  

 
Charlie Harper said:
What's the high side if CYDY is legit?

Merck and Co $77

Gilead $77

Sanofi $52

GlaxcoSmithKline $41

Pfizer $33

Just seeing what people think considering my CB was at ATH.
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Regarding the bolded: I have no idea. 

I got into this because of the Cancer/HIV treatment applications that are forthcoming.

COVID is just a secondary aspect for me  :2cents:

Moving into NASDAQ would be great. In the meantime, I'm happy to hold  :cool:

:banned:

 
stbugs said:
Which reminds me. After uplisting all of us need to open about 10-15 RH accounts and buy 1 share a piece. That should get us on the list.
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I’ve thought about getting my two boys a RH account and about $500 to mess around with.  The older one had mentioned his friends talking about it.  Then just point them in the CYDY direction when we can and CYDY spreads like CV19. 

 
chet said:
4 things I've heard re: $CYDY's move today:

  1. Supposedly 1 or 2 institutions are establishing a position;
  2. Short covering;
  3. Uplisting may be closer than previously thought; and
  4. Continuation of positive feedback from Bruce's TEDx and Yahoo appearances.
#notselling
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Apparently you missed getting taken out by big pharma.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
My concern is that there seems to be doubt creeping in about any of the three major sports happening at all anymore.  That would be detrimental to all stocks that are exposed to sports betting.  There are NBA players that worry that coming back will take away from the societal uprising that is occurring at the moment. Also--they are thinking about playing in Florida--whose covid cases are rising exponentially.   The MLB owner and players union seem to be at an impasse--and if the season gets short enough--many players are going to say the risk is not worth the reward with what will be vastly reduced salaries.   There have already been issues with the notion that Football can safely return.  The giant roster sizes and the number of periphery personel required would almost require daily tests for entire staffs which can get extremely difficult and extremely expensive.   I'm not saying that these seasons won't happen-but I absolutely think they are far from a guarantee. My confidence level in any of them happening has diminished moderately in the past week. 
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I hear ya. And it could be a catalyst. I guess it depends how you view DKNG. If you think it is truly a $13bn company, worth more than traditional casinos, then no sports season would just be a hiccup and a great buying opportunity. Now of course, nobody wants to lose money and if it's just a trade then I agree. I was being a bit of a smartazz, just pointing out that AFAIK, they will only be offering sports betting in 7 states this summer. Now of course there is an NPV discussion and they'll need to start earning money to fuel future growth. But analysts don't expect the company to turn a profit until 2023. If you look at it over a 10-year time frame, would offering baseball, basketball and football this year in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and West Virginia really be worth billions? Obviously, it's better to have sports but I'd argue it's way more important to see progress on states legalizing sports betting. Now I think most of that is priced in but can still get some pops on big states legalizing. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
Maybe a long slow downward trickle coming?  Maybe the markets will react appropriately to how screwed up everything is?
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I would guess it won't be a slow downward trickle. Elevator down, escalator up. Now there is obviously a difference between 5% drop, 10% drop and 20% drop. One of two things that is needed is either buying the dip or more fed intervention. Folks point to the record money on the sidelines as willing to buy any dip. So you'd need something to get them to buy into the market. In my experience, they're more likely to buy a mini correction than buy 1-2% drops per day. Obviously retail has become a more important part of the market. Their impact is probably overstated but I think they've become the incremental buyer as companies retreat from buybacks. What happens when they stop buying or if they run out of money? Buyers can evaporate in a hurry which is why you see 'irrational' moves downward.

The Fed remains the big question. It appears they've used all their instruments. The only other one would be buying troubled assets but thanks to their previous intervention, most troubled assets appear to be trading fine. They can obviously increase the size of purchases but unless they just nationalize certain markets like the junk market or buy equities, they pretty much did what they hoped to do. Obviously pumping trillions more into the market can help in the short-term and they don't appear to care much about long-term consequences. The funny thing is that the Main Street Lending program either hasn't started or just started and the corporate credit program still appears in its infancy. So goes to show you what they can do just by signaling. 

I'm probably going to see how things trade over the next few days. Indexes were down ~1% in AH (before catching a bid right before AH markets closed). That may have just been index rebalancing or could point to something more nefarious. And probably just park my cash in some commodities or some place where I can hedge against inflation and dollar devaluation. The only way I think you can justify current prices are the Fed and while I got burned a bit fighting the Fed, I can't just blindly invest, hoping the Fed will bail me out. 

 
Walking Boot said:
What does quoting some random stock prices have to do with anything? How does the price of Pfizer or Gilead relate at all to the price of CYDY? How can you possibly use stock price as any measure of relative value of two companies?

If TESLA is $1000 a share, and FORD is $5 a share, is Telsa 200 times more valuable than Ford?
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Is it not?

I just picked established pharmaceutical companies. Cydy is developing a drug. Makes sense to me.

I'm new to all this so please explain, cause I'm an idiot.

 
Charlie Harper said:
Is it not?

I just picked established pharmaceutical companies. Cydy is developing a drug. Makes sense to me.

I'm new to all this so please explain, cause I'm an idiot.
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Teslas market cap is around 8x that of ford, but the stock price is like 150x that of ford.  

The number of shares matters.

I barely know anything either, but I have learned that much.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Mancini:

“Have a great weekend! Last week’s engulfing candle saw no follow through - just a backtest of May’s breakout to put in an inside week. Decision week now. My plan: 3060 is battleground. Bullish above, and 3130 is gate to 3200+. For bears: Fail to recapture 3060 opens 2920 where I’d buy.”

 
GoBirds said:
Thanks for this detailed response, do you have a personal preference going with a fund vs ETF? I’ve been getting into a lot of Vanguard but there’s been no strategy of find vs etf and wonder if I should have one?
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It’s largely preference when comparing Vanguard ETFs vs Vanguard mutual funds as they are treated the same for tax purposes.

Advantages to the ETFs are lower buy-in Cost (minimum investment is cost of 1 share) and slightly lower ERs.

Advantage to the mutual funds are the ability to buy in round dollar amounts (bc you can buy fractional shares) and automation - you can set up automated investments.

 
Charlie Harper said:
Is it not?

I just picked established pharmaceutical companies. Cydy is developing a drug. Makes sense to me.

I'm new to all this so please explain, cause I'm an idiot.
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Charlie, the value of a company is based on the number of "outstanding" shares times the price of the stock. This is called the market capitalization, or market cap for short. 

The number of outstanding shares is not fixed for every company. Some companies may have 2,000,000 outstanding shares. If the stock price is $100, that company is worth $200,000,000. Other companies may have 100,000,000 outstanding shares. At $100, that company is worth $10 billion. 

Ask questions. We all learned this once upon a time. 

 
D_House said:
It’s largely preference when comparing Vanguard ETFs vs Vanguard mutual funds as they are treated the same for tax purposes.

Advantages to the ETFs are lower buy-in Cost (minimum investment is cost of 1 share) and slightly lower ERs.

Advantage to the mutual funds are the ability to buy in round dollar amounts (bc you can buy fractional shares) and automation - you can set up automated investments.
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You can also trade the ETFs intraday

 
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