Stock Thread (52 Viewers)

[stbugs]

Shorts can't run on this news.  It would be suicide. 

AF has already shot his bullet. I wonder if they are trying their best to get out of their positions. @fantasycurse42 may have been right thinking that today could be a down day (reason why I sold yesterday). I was thinking the same thing but honestly, I wasn’t even expecting to see safety numbers before closing bell.

Just glad I sold the extra I bought to get back to a good comfort level with what I am letting ride.

 

[cosjobs]

So, noob here.

I moved some dough yesterday to a cash position to try and buy some more today. I know I'm late to the party overall, but that's neither here or there. I'm learning here.

Is it better to have the order in now before the market opens or wait a bit? 

90% of the time I buy (or sell) pre-market, I would have done better if I had waited until the open.

 

[fred_1_15301]

I mean, it depends on how much lower. Back of hand calculations, since 21.4% of placebo patients had SAEs but only 8.9% of the drug patients did, that’s statistically significant at the 5% (but not 1%) level. If two more drug patients had SAEs (so 21.4% vs 12.5%), it’s no longer significant at 5%. So the difference between significance and insignificance is razor thin with such a small group.

Well yeah it's a clinical trial so we're not typically powered to assess safety differences.  But if it proves to be efficacious, the safety finding can only help support the overall risk benefit profile of this drug.  

 

[BassNBrew]

My bottom line is no chance I’m selling on this.

You and I sold a bit yesterday to cover ourselves. I’m the same way and I’m letting it roll. Funny thing is I have about the same number of shares I had when it went to $10 so really only sold extras I bought after the bear raid. It was enough to make me comfortable going forward. If it does somehow get to $10+, I’ll probably sell another chunk to book a nice profit and see where it goes. If the results are great enough to get approval then it may blow by $10, who knows.

Not picking on you, but you and FC are more fun/entertaining to read when you're ranting about not selling at $10.  Now this may be a more logical take, but it just lacks the emotion of the previous posts.

 

[Jayrok]

Adam F 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cytodyns-covid-19-drug-troubles-escalate-efficacy-data-are-missing-from-study/?utm_campaign=rss

Told you this would be out first thing this morning.  

The PR clearly states that full efficacy data is being worked and will be released ASAP.  AF is a clown.  

 

[Golf Guy 69]

Wouldn't it be great if they drop the efficacy data at 9am.

 

[Acrobat7]

90% of the time I buy (or sell) pre-market, I would have done better if I had waited until the open.

This, and it also looks like a down opening when looking at the German exchanges.

 

[matuski]

Are any of you actually qualified to be able to tell us if the results are good?

We weren't presented results.

 

[BassNBrew]

So, noob here.

I moved some dough yesterday to a cash position to try and buy some more today. I know I'm late to the party overall, but that's neither here or there. I'm learning here.

Is it better to have the order in now before the market opens or wait a bit? 

Wait.  You could get hosed on the OTC at open.  You don't want to be gifted someone's $10 sell order shares.

 

[matuski]

We weren't presented results.

This is my hesitation - this is how I would sell data, as opposed to how I would present data.

 

[fred_1_15301]

We weren't presented results.

There were safety results presented.  But that doesn't mean much without the efficacy results.  However, it's a step in the right direction.

 

[cosjobs]

Wait.  You could get hosed on the OTC at open.  You don't want to be gifted someone's $10 sell order shares.

Or $10 could be half the asking price

 

[fred_1_15301]

This has to be such a long shot still.  There are so many damn companies (including all the big guns) who are developing treatments for Covid-19  

 

[djmich]

This is my hesitation - this is how I would sell data, as opposed to how I would present data.

How would you have presented the data?

 

[I-ROK]

This has to be such a long shot still.  There are so many damn companies (including all the big guns) who are developing treatments for Covid-19  

Vaccines may make this even less of a long term buy, but certainly some money to be made with all the pumping going on

 

[I-ROK]

How would you have presented the data?

I would have lead with my best news. Then follow up with the details and nitty gritty. 

 

[matuski]

There were safety results presented.  But that doesn't mean much without the efficacy results.  However, it's a step in the right direction.

I don't believe safety was an endpoint in the study unless I missed something?  Didn't we already know it was safe?  I'll shutup now, not trying to hijack.

Hoping to sell at $9 again.

 

[stbugs]

Not picking on you, but you and FC are more fun/entertaining to read when you're ranting about not selling at $10.  Now this may be a more logical take, but it just lacks the emotion of the previous posts.

That’s why I sold my extra. It made me feel better overall. Felt like I had way too much riding on a very risky bet. I still have way too much likely so I definitely think if it gets back to $10 that I’ll unload the next 1/3 and see where it goes. Seeing as how it’s at $6 right now, good efficacy results will likely zoom through $10.

If I was smarter, I would have sold the first time and bought back in lower. Damn that bear raid was really fast, still had plenty of time though had I been smart about setting an exit price.

The emotion was because NP kept holding stupid conferences that said nothing just feeding the bears everything they could ever want. After not selling at $10, it was like getting gut punched several times when you had a chance to leave hours before.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Vaccines may make this even less of a long term buy, but certainly some money to be made with all the pumping going on

Yup good point.  But we have some time before a vaccine is ready for mass distribution.  Plenty of time to make a killing and then sell.  

 

[ex-ghost]

This sounds like a buy the dip day if you are interested in day trading it.

 

[fred_1_15301]

I don't believe safety was an endpoint in the study unless I missed something?  Didn't we already know it was safe?  I'll shutup now, not trying to hijack.

Hoping to sell at $9 again.

Yeah I wish I could disagree with you.  Something seems off but let's see what happens in the next couple days. 

 

[matuski]

How would you have presented the data?

I'd wait until I had it.

 

[cosjobs]

This sounds like a buy the dip day if you are interested in day trading it.

We may get a dip during the day, but I will be stunned if its an overall down day for CYDY

 

[fantasycurse42]

They’ll shake the weak hands early, that’s the time to add, IMO.

 

[djmich]

I'd wait until I had it.

I think thats a fair answer...and frankly the only possible complaint I could think of.

Of course, if they waited folks would be complaining that topline results could already have been distributed and that they must be terrible otherwise why not at least get those out while the detailed efficacy stats are being analyzed.

 

[Charlie Harper]

My hope is that they HAD to release something because NP opened his big mouth and they really are working on effectiveness data. However, it does give me pause that safety was released first. 

Why can't this be simple and straight forward?

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

I think thats a fair answer...and frankly the only possible complaint I could think of.

Of course, if they waited folks would be complaining that topline results could already have been distributed and that they must be terrible otherwise why not at least get those out while the detailed efficacy stats are being analyzed.

Shorts ability to provide clever, if misleading, word-smithed copy, coupled with NP's penchant to overpromise, put us in a no-win situation absent HFS results. Not much we could do to keep them at bay today.

NP. So many self-inflicted wounds.

 

[Capella]

I'd wait until I had it.

I think I agree both with this, and that the news today was fine. They should have just put it all out together but ultimately it won’t matter. 

 

[ghostguy123]

 However, it does give me pause that safety was released first. 

Seems like this would be the easiest to figure out though.

I see a higher price and more volume coming on the bid/ask on fidelity.

 

[matuski]

I think I agree both with this, and that the news today was fine. They should have just put it all out together but ultimately it won’t matter. 

I have been successful when I "pre-sold" data in a way that created reliable expectations.

It has bitten me in the ### when I create expectations the whole of the data doesn't support.

So exactly - if it is indeed all good, doesn't matter.

 

[The Ref]

Seems like this would be the easiest to figure out though.

I see a higher price and more volume coming on the bid/ask on fidelity.

I sold a slice to cover my rear incase it was bad. What I didn’t account for is now I got ammo to buy a dip.

no lose situation, I think

 

[djmich]

Last Nights Bruce Patterson Summary:  I've spent more time than any other scientist understanding how this works, with patients, analyzing the blood work.  Leronlimab can treat any pathogen and we should be stockpiling the ####.  Oh btw I'm a dead ringer for Jeb Bush and a genius.

Early results:  The drug is safe and half the SAE's as placebo...we're finishing the rest of the data guys!

FBG forum:  commits Hari-kari

 

[cosjobs]

I think I agree both with this, and that the news today was fine. They should have just put it all out together but ultimately it won’t matter. 

Not releasing anything today would have really hurt the price.

 

[Capella]

Not releasing anything today would have really hurt the price.

Well yea after he said something about it on Friday. If he was quiet and just said we’ll release it when we have it, it would have been fine. He set a deadline he didn’t need to set. 

 

[Whyatt]

I'm not sure what you mean presented as they are...what other way would you have presented them?

I'm not trying to be a ####, just not sure what else they could have done.

I think everyone agrees that the data is not complete, want to see detailed efficacy results.  Based on usual timelines for this to be completed is it not unreasonable to expect those results over a weekend?

Are you saying that they should have released nothing at this point?

Yes I think they should have shared all the results. Seems to me that’s what everyone expected. 

Presenting only a portion raises more questions than answers, and leads to questions on why. Are the results really not available, and why not?

 

[BassNBrew]

90% of the time I buy (or sell) pre-market, I would have done better if I had waited until the open.

I'm about 60/40 to the good but probably don't trade as much as you.

 

[djmich]

Yes I think they should have shared all the results. Seems to me that’s what everyone expected. 

Presenting only a portion raises more questions than answers, and leads to questions on why. Are the results really not available, and why not?

Someone quoted earlier it takes usually 4-6 weeks to analyze the data once unblinded.  I know you are in the field, are results usually completed over a weekend?

 

[Jayrok]

This PR looks like spin to me. This isn’t the PR they were hopeful for a week ago. Realize that the death was almost certainly due to coronavirus.

Looks like no deaths in the placebo arm, so the unmet medical need angle for drug EUA is not there.

I do wish they'd clarify that the death was part of which group.  It doesn't specifically say it was or wasn't in the placebo arm, just that 1 patient in the total 84 across the entire study.  Maybe they can't say officially until full results are out?  It said the death was due to an event unrelated to leronlimab.  He should clarify that. Doesn't prove either way which group it was in. I suppose that will come out in the full results package.  

Since this was a mild to moderate study, how many deaths would we expect?  Severe/critical study would seem to be where more deaths are reported.  Wonder how many of the moderate placebo group progressed on towards sever/critical vs the LL group.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

My hope is that they HAD to release something because NP opened his big mouth and they really are working on effectiveness data. However, it does give me pause that safety was released first. 

Why can't this be simple and straight forward?

Could it be that releasing the safety data was a simple task and releasing efficacy data requires more work?

 

[fantasycurse42]

I saw what I needed to. Tuning it all out now.

 

[The Ref]

Could it be that releasing the safety data was a simple task and the releasing efficacy data requires more work?

This was my take.  And it seems to me the safety Data has inherent efficacy in it.... shorts will say otherwise 

 

[cosjobs]

Could it be that releasing the safety data was a simple task and the releasing efficacy data requires more work?

4-6 weeks is for amateurs

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

Last Nights Bruce Patterson Summary:  I've spent more time than any other scientist understanding how this works, with patients, analyzing the blood work.  Leronlimab can treat any pathogen and we should be stockpiling the ####.  Oh btw I'm a dead ringer for Jeb Bush and a genius.

Early results:  The drug is safe and half the SAE's as placebo...we're finishing the rest of the data guys!

FBG forum:  commits Hari-kari

Exactly.

this is what investing (gambling) with emotion looks like.

 

[Jayrok]

Could it be that releasing the safety data was a simple task and the releasing efficacy data requires more work?

I think so too.  He knew if he didn't have anything this morning, after what he said Saturday night... he'd catch hell.  

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Oh I agree--but what are the odds that the news that comes out with the results are mixed, inconclusive or digestible as both potentially positive or negative?    I'm cautiously optimistic and of course am rooting for the best--but I'm not sure if this stock has ever had any sort of transparatent clarity in one way or another since I've owned it. Lol. 

I kinda had a feeling.  Lol.  With that said--so far what they released seems pretty good.  Still cautiously optimistic 

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

I saw what I needed to. Tuning it all out now.

Sure you are. See you in about 2 hours when you complete the loop and freak out again.

 

[CR69]

4-6 weeks is for amatures

So 4-6 months for CYDY then?

 

[matuski]

Exactly.

this is what investing (gambling) with emotion looks like.

I mean nobody is investing in this with data right now, right?  We are buying the PR.

 

[chet]

Adam Feuerstein is a despicable human:

CytoDyn released safety data on its experimental drug for Covid-19 on Tuesday, but efficacy data were conspicuously absent, and the company disclosed that a patient had died following treatment with the therapy.

The cause of the patient’s death was not disclosed, but CytoDyn said the fatality occurred 33 days after enrollment in the clinical trial due to an “event unrelated” to treatment with its drug, leronlimab. No other details about the patient were provided. 

The company claimed the drug’s safety profile was “impressive.”

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Over the past week, the company had teased investors with promises of full results from the completed study, which enrolled 84 patients with mild or moderate symptoms of Covid-19. On Saturday, CytoDyn CEO Nader Pourhassan gave an interview to a YouTube doctor in which he promised a press release on Tuesday morning with results from the Covid-19 clinical trial.

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“We’re just a couple of days away. As we said before, our optimism is through the roof. You have to hold me down with regards to my optimism,” Pourhassan said. 

But Tuesday morning came and went without the promised efficacy results, a red flag signaling CytoDyn was hiding a negative outcome. 

In its statement, CytoDyn said an analysis of the study was incomplete. But that explanation makes little sense because the company was able to disclose unblinded safety data for the patients who received leronlimab injections or a matching placebo. 

When a drug maker promises clinical trial results and then fails to deliver, the true reason is obvious: The study failed. 

The primary efficacy goal of the study measured “clinical improvement” across four symptoms — fever, muscle ache, shortness of breath and cough — after 14 days of treatment. This is a relatively weak and imprecise way to measure the benefit of a drug for Covid-19. Among the four symptoms, fever can be measured most objectively, but fever reduction alone has not been considered a clinically meaningful primary endpoint in any other Covid-19 clinical trial.

Gilead’s remdesivir study in moderate Covid-19 patients, by comparison, defined clinical improvement based on a scale that assessed death, intubation, use of supplemental oxygen and hospitalization status.

CytoDyn set the efficacy bar for leronlimab’s study so low that even a positive outcome versus placebo would have been considered medically irrelevant. That makes Tuesday’s non-disclosure of any leronlimab efficacy data even more alarming.

 

[The Ref]

I mean nobody is investing in this with data right now, right?  You are buying the PR.

But is there really no data here?