CR69
Footballguy
I would be all over this as well. Curious to find out about any competition. It sounds like this will actually be on the ballot in Oregon this year...
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Stock Thread (62 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Other than choosing which stocks to hold during a run-up and which stocks to take profit on, by far my biggest weakness as a trader/investor is averaging into a long position when the stock price moves up.
We talk a lot about averaging in as the stock price falls, which is great, but when it goes the other way I get this mental block about not wanting to pay more than I paid for my initial position and I often end up having to pay much more later.
Two recent examples are SONO and VRM. SONO I picked up half my desired position at $14. It has slowly moved up from there and at $15 I didn't pick up the other half because I was waiting on a pull-back. Now it sits at $17.
Same with VRM, which I started around $42. I didn't want to buy the other half above that at $44, then $46, now it is near $50.
Should I just buy the other half on these now or wait for them to pull back to around where I bought the first half? I always get stuck on that.
We talk a lot about averaging in as the stock price falls, which is great, but when it goes the other way I get this mental block about not wanting to pay more than I paid for my initial position and I often end up having to pay much more later.
Two recent examples are SONO and VRM. SONO I picked up half my desired position at $14. It has slowly moved up from there and at $15 I didn't pick up the other half because I was waiting on a pull-back. Now it sits at $17.
Same with VRM, which I started around $42. I didn't want to buy the other half above that at $44, then $46, now it is near $50.
Should I just buy the other half on these now or wait for them to pull back to around where I bought the first half? I always get stuck on that.
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hooter311
Footballguy
With gambling apps in Pennsylvania and west Virginia opening last week and NBA coming back today and mlb on Friday....I plan on riding this to a new high and then some.
Zegras11
Footballguy
I buy on pullbacks. Establishing a new high changes the rules IMO. I personally would move the other half in at 10% increments. If you end up chasing it higher, you'll be doing well. If it dips, then you'll lower your basis.
General Malaise
Footballguy
HI HO SILVER.....AWAY
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
LVS misses expectations by a lot...
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) reported quarterly losses of $(1.05) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.72) by 45.83 percent. This is a 245.83 percent decrease over earnings of $0.72 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $98.00 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $563.75 million by 82.62 percent. This is a 97.06 percent decrease over sales of $3.33 billion the same period last year.
Hoping this bodes well for the puts I’m holding on PENN and MGM
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) reported quarterly losses of $(1.05) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.72) by 45.83 percent. This is a 245.83 percent decrease over earnings of $0.72 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $98.00 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $563.75 million by 82.62 percent. This is a 97.06 percent decrease over sales of $3.33 billion the same period last year.
Hoping this bodes well for the puts I’m holding on PENN and MGM
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
wow. rektLVS misses expectations by a lot...
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) reported quarterly losses of $(1.05) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.72) by 45.83 percent. This is a 245.83 percent decrease over earnings of $0.72 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $98.00 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $563.75 million by 82.62 percent. This is a 97.06 percent decrease over sales of $3.33 billion the same period last year.
Hoping this bodes well for the puts I’m holding on PENN and MGM
Capella
Footballguy
Oh, it’s going to be a heck of a lot of fun looking at some of these results. Q3 isn’t going to be pretty either, just not as bad.LVS misses expectations by a lot...
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) reported quarterly losses of $(1.05) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.72) by 45.83 percent. This is a 245.83 percent decrease over earnings of $0.72 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $98.00 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $563.75 million by 82.62 percent. This is a 97.06 percent decrease over sales of $3.33 billion the same period last year.
Hoping this bodes well for the puts I’m holding on PENN and MGM
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
"Beats" are only useful for making headlines to get people to FOMO into buying/selling. Presumably everyone should have their own estimates when they buy a stock so even if it "beat" the median analyst predictions it clearly didn't beat the predictions of the actual stock owners.
CR69
Footballguy
If I’m reading their earnings report correctly (big if lol) it looks like their table game revenue is down over 50% per table and that’s with the days they were closed being excluded from the report. Slots down about 7%. That’s pretty crazy for that big of a drop right after reopening when they were much busier than they are now...
I know that I have personally never created my own estimates for a company. Have you? Also, if you have are you one of those FF people who creates their own predictions for every player?
Yep. It’s why I’ve stuck to long term growing companies. If this keeps going as is, there’s going to be a lot of companies pulling a Hertz.
kevzilla
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
They were closed just over 2/3 of the quarter but their net revenue dropped almost 92%. That’s WITH the “pent up demand” that many were predicting.
Las Vegas reopened June 4th. They were open for 30% of Q2 with pent up demand. They only had 7% of the revenue. That tells me that reopen <<<<<<< normal. That doesn’t bode well for the rest of the year.
CR69
Footballguy
Haha yeah saw that after the screen refreshed. I’m really curious to see how PENN does considering their debt load is much higher than others in the industry...
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
They made $100mm dollars in GAAP income this quarter
If they were a $40B company, that would be one thing, but they're not... If it ever implodes under the weight of its own bloatedness, it will be a wealth destroying event for a lot of people.
ETA: Regulatory credits made up $428mm. I feel like I live on Pluto sometimes.
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Who set the estimates? From what I just read the estimates were expecting a loss? If that was the case then analysts weren’t expecting them to be in the S&P because a loss would have stopped that. Everyone was thinking they’d be in the S&P.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I think as a company they’ll do well but I’d never buy them at this level. Since they’ll be added to the S&P, I’ll own some of them anyway.They made $100mm dollars in GAAP income this quarter
If they were a $40B company, that would be one thing, but they're not... If it ever implodes under the weight of its own bloatedness, it will be a wealth destroying event for a lot of people.
ETA: Regulatory credits made up $428mm. I feel like I live on Pluto sometimes.
CR69
Footballguy
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I bought in the $500's and thought it was stupid high then. I'm not sure what the ratio of cultists vs. traders are in TSLA. My sense is that there are a ton of Tesla cult members, many who bought in sub $100, who simply don't sell and even buy more along the way. Add $2B short and it makes for a weird market. Drops tend to be bought too. Just a weird stock. I'm not sure what news outside of BK or book cooking implodes TSLA. Absent of fraud, if it goes down below my buy in I'd personally buy more.They made $100mm dollars in GAAP income this quarter
If they were a $40B company, that would be one thing, but they're not... If it ever implodes under the weight of its own bloatedness, it will be a wealth destroying event for a lot of people.
ETA: Regulatory credits made up $428mm. I feel like I live on Pluto sometimes.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Thanks for the reply--and I agree with you on some points and disagree on others. No way anybody can throw Covid out when evaluating a stock. Yes--covid effects everyone--but it doesn't effect everybody equally. Business travel is going to take years or decades to recover. Business travel is a huge portion of where airlines make money. There are sectors that will be disproportionately effected both negatively and positively from covid. Boeing happens to be in one of the sectors where the damage will arguably be giganticReally good points, but think about what you said.
First, throw out COVID, its impacting everyone but tech. Heck, look at energy utilities, all still down and not up except folks like ES (who im long on).
Now, credibility on the MAX ... that impact is over. I doubt we will see much more stock impact from that situation. So now it means BA crawls out. Next, factor in the duopoly. As of today, are we buying more planes or less planes? I would guess more for both people transportation, but also consumer goods. Look at AMZN here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-leases-12-more-boeing-cargo-planes-for-amazon-air-fleet-2020-06-03. Sure, they are leasing the planes, but the demand is up.
Finally, China. Look at COMAC and determine how close do you think they are to being a real player? I think they are trying to move too fast, forcing small carriers to take their commuter planes. I think China is a pretender.
So - here I am, this is a 5 year buy. I am assuming that GOOGL will need a cycle. I chose to use GOOGL over AMZN and MSFT as these stocks provide tangible revenue products. GOOGL is ad revenue and while its only increasing I believe its close to saturation. I mean, YouTube is getting so bad with ads lately, how much more ad revenue can their be? People wont take it.
I also do not agree that the issue with the Max is even close to being over. Do you not remember the Dreamliner? Once the max gets lots of usage--there will be problems and issues that come up. Thats a guarantee. With the questionable safety record of the max--anytime anything small happens--it will be looked at with tons of scrutiny. No way do i think boeing is out of the woods with the max--so i disagree there.
I do think there could be demand for cargo planes--but I also think that lots of smaller to medium size airlines will go under and lots of their planes will be liquidated and auctioned off. I don't think there will be a shortage of commercial aircraft in the market anytime soon and if anything--boeing could lose potential contracts to companies buying pre-owned plans for a fraction of the cost of new ones.
I do not follow the chinese aviation market--but I am not a huge believer in any aviation companies right now regardless of where they are from. With all of this said--I am basically a long term bull on any decent company that I see surviving covid and being around for years to come. I've said it before on this thread--our government and economy has been effectively based on the printing press for so many years now--that it is going to come back and haunt us. Too much printing of money and rates that have been low and will be low for too long will make the dollar drop like a rock and the companies that are strong enough to survive will be worth a boatload. While I don't love Boeing--they will survive and thats why I'm long term bullish on them. In regards to google---data is more valuable than gold in our economy. They are more than just an "ad" company--they are the biggest and most relevant data company on the planet. If i were to project 5 years from now--my guess is that google probably would have made some major acquisitions of other companies that even gives them more facets of revenue. In any case--I'm not saying you are wrong--I'm just not sure I'd do it. I trust the data industry five years from now more than i do the aviation or travel industry. Good luck.
I thought about buying at $350 in March. I bought some other stocks. SHOP tripled and most of the rest went up a ton, but only FSLY outdid Tesla. I had plenty of cash to add Tesla too. My big regret this year was not just loading up when I knew the prices in March were great. That second drop being discussed kept me from going to gung ho.
adonis
Footballguy
There will be more drops - not back to those levels, but still some good opportunities to buy back in.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Its not that they were just closed. Even when they opened--its not like they are "making" money. They have no convention business, most of the restaurants, clubs, bars, pool parties are closed. They are virtually giving rooms away for free or dirt cheap. Pre-covid the money made from the casinos represented only about 25% the revenues for the big hotels. Thats with the big millionaire and billionaire gamblers going there with no hesitation. Right now--you basically have vegas only being full on the weekends and its full of the lower to middle tier gambler who is taking advantage of free rooms and not being able to spend their money at bars/clubs/restaurants/spas which are normally big sources of revenue for the hotels. However--with them being open--they have to pay staff, casino workers, security, front desk people, room service people, maintenance staff. There is a good chance that them being re-opened to a limited capacity is actually costing them more than being closed once the liabilities of being opened are taken into account. Wait for covid to spread amongst the hotel staff of one of these big resorts and then see what it costs them. I love Vegas--but 2020 is going to be brutally tough for it.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Of course not. But the people and hedge funds that are buying/selling enough shares to actually move a stock like MSFT probably are.
They actually literally just interviewed some big investor on CNBC about this and he specifically mentioned that they underperformed his expectations.
The estimates they compare to when reporting serve no purpose other than to give schmucks like us some context to compare to since the raw numbers mean nothing to us. The accuracy of those estimates relative to what the actual bigtime real world investors are expecting are just complete guesses though.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Or find a site you like and trust and pay for their price estimates. Sort of like paying FBG for predictions for every player.
Guinis72
Footballguy
I bought Tesla for $431 12/19 and sold it after it skyrocketed, plummeted, and then "got back" to about $730 too. Ugh.
Elon might me a little out there but there aren't many people that have the vision he has, and can get it done. I think he's a lot like Steve Jobs, WTF has Apple put out since Tim Cook took over? I know they're still killing it as a company, but all their products are just improved versions of their current products, nothing groundbreaking like the iPod was or the iPhone.
Elon might me a little out there but there aren't many people that have the vision he has, and can get it done. I think he's a lot like Steve Jobs, WTF has Apple put out since Tim Cook took over? I know they're still killing it as a company, but all their products are just improved versions of their current products, nothing groundbreaking like the iPod was or the iPhone.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Anybody ever tried to trade on CNBC features? $MDLA CEO was just on Kramer, and it shot up 8% in after hours. I've seen this effect a bunch of other times, quick, short spikes based on something being talked about on CNBC. It seems to often be short-lived, but could make for a quick in-and-out in a matter of minutes for a few points. Most of the time it's just background noise for me while I'm working, and I'm no BnB in terms of the day trading. Anyone else paid closer attention and tried to take advantage of that?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
kevzilla
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
I've been wanting to buy MGM since it was at 9.15. Do you think it heads down to 10 again?
KGB
Footballguy
I'd be interested if you posted who was going to be on. If you like the company anyways, maybe take a flyer
