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Stock Thread (43 Viewers)

culdeus said:
What the hell us index investors and dabblers in chet stuff(tm) doing about the falling dollar?  This has the potential to wreck indexed bond holdings.  
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Hedging with gold, silver, BTC, and long dated DXY contracts. 

Eventually they will have to find a way to prop up the dollar. Can't be too high, can't be too low. Has to stay in that sweet spot. 

 
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JerseyToughGuys said:
Hedging with gold, silver, BTC, and long dated DXY contracts. 

Eventually they will have to find a way to prop up the dollar. Can't be too high, can't be too low. Has to stay in that sweet spot. 
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I've got more silver than a pirate at this point.  Considering doing a blended international bond fund.

 
-OZ- said:
I must have bought at the wrong time yesterday. Nice 17% up today, but it crashed after I bought yesterday. 

At 10,000 shares, I'm hopeful.
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I am in at the same level.  Had a buy in for $.16, but i got impatient and am in at $.17

I need to learn to be more patient, I think.

 
culdeus said:
I've got more silver than a pirate at this point.  Considering doing a blend international bond fund.ed
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all of the macro stuff I follow is throwing this out there as the answer. EM specifically. 

I am just wondering when all those EMs are going to catch up with our money printer. It has to happen eventually. 

Let us know what you find/pick. 

 
General Malaise said:
More apt to say they make other EV charging stations work.  Infrastructure solar solutions for EV chargers.  Small footprint.  They enable the products that charge EVs.  Technology solution which replaces the need to plug into the grid.
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#### it. I'm in. Here's hoping it makes up for Cobalt.😬

 
BassNBrew said:
Thanks for the tip, I'll watch it.  Hard to day trade in a stock that you think is overvalued.  
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Makes sense.  That being said, I think I've proven that I don't know what the #### I'm doing when it comes to this market so you may as well inverse me lol. 

 
culdeus said:
What the hell us index investors and dabblers in chet stuff(tm) doing about the falling dollar?  This has the potential to wreck indexed bond holdings.  
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Great question.

I have no problem ditching bonds in my retirement accounts, although I had been waiting for a better opportunity to buy (TSP, so broad market) but the college accounts are a different issue.

 
culdeus said:
What the hell us index investors and dabblers in chet stuff(tm) doing about the falling dollar?  This has the potential to wreck indexed bond holdings.  
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A question I've been wondering to as I'm hedging a good bit with TLT, but now a bit unsure with the falling dollar.

 
stbugs said:
Not sure how they did that. I’d be more worried about the huge success of Disney+ and the revenue was down even more than the cut projections. They went from over $20B in revenue last year to $11B. That’s a big drop.

I’d say they did some interesting gymnastics to stay positive on earnings since their full year earnings in 2019 was $11B. Losing $10B in revenue in a quarter and your profit goes down only a couple billion? That’s a lot of laid off workers. Anyway, I’d be more concerned that Disney+ did fantastic and they missed revenue estimates by $1B. That tells me that the park, cruise, movie and sports revenue are so much more and that’s not going back to normal for a while.
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They made .08 cents a share.

The stock is absurdly overpriced here.

Sell.

 
EVSI awarded a patent for solar/wind powered street lights that can replace existing street lights.  The columns will be filled with batteries and allow for charging EVs for street parking, which would be huge in NYC.  Good stuff.  Also drone charging stations on roof tops.  This is neat.

 
stbugs said:
BassNBrew said:
Mgmt knocked it out of the park not losing money on the quarter.  
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Not sure how they did that. I’d be more worried about the huge success of Disney+ and the revenue was down even more than the cut projections. They went from over $20B in revenue last year to $11B. That’s a big drop.

I’d say they did some interesting gymnastics to stay positive on earnings since their full year earnings in 2019 was $11B. Losing $10B in revenue in a quarter and your profit goes down only a couple billion? That’s a lot of laid off workers. Anyway, I’d be more concerned that Disney+ did fantastic and they missed revenue estimates by $1B. That tells me that the park, cruise, movie and sports revenue are so much more and that’s not going back to normal for a while.
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I haven't seen the breakdown, but I assume most people are not yet paying for Disney+. A year of it came for free on Verizon. That could help explain the split between subscribers and revenue.

 
cosjobs said:
stock at 33.70 at end of call.

I was WAY off base on this one.
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BassNBrew said:
I’m going to double down in hopes that the Robin Hood or see it as a buying opportunity tomorrowI’m going to double down in hopes that the Robin Hood or see it as a buying opportunity tomorrow
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Back into the green with a stop loss that prevents a loss.  Unless it's runs here the likely profit will be pennies.  Still very happy to at least turn this from an L to a push.

 
So, another noob question here. At what point do you just say eff it and get out from an underperforming stock?

For example, I got in late on CYDY, so my cost basis is $6.50. At this point I have no faith in this thing, even though it does have some long term positivity to it. I just don't think it's for Covid, and I have this feeling that if Covid doesn't pay off for them it's just going to disappear for a few years.

So when does it make sense to just dump it and put it into something else? 

 
ChiefD said:
So, another noob question here. At what point do you just say eff it and get out from an underperforming stock?

For example, I got in late on CYDY, so my cost basis is $6.50. At this point I have no faith in this thing, even though it does have some long term positivity to it. I just don't think it's for Covid, and I have this feeling that if Covid doesn't pay off for them it's just going to disappear for a few years.

So when does it make sense to just dump it and put it into something else? 
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As soon as you believe the bolded.

If you aren't sure, then dump half.

 
Desert_Power said:
I haven't seen the breakdown, but I assume most people are not yet paying for Disney+. A year of it came for free on Verizon. That could help explain the split between subscribers and revenue.
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Typically, Verizon is footing the bill to get people to stay on or use Verizon. Kind of the way they used to subsidize phones. Apple didn’t give away free phones. I don’t think Disney is giving away anything, Verizon is just paying Disney. Might get a discount but that’s the way that works.

 
ZAGG Inc. (ZAGG) shares were up 17% to $3.57 in late morning trading.

The company, whose products include screen protection, mobile keyboards, and personal audio, reported second-quarter net sales of $77.1 million, down from $106.8 million a year earlier but above FactSet consensus of two estimates for $60 million.

The decrease in net sales was primarily attributable to retail store closures and demand reductions due to the Covid- 19 pandemic. This decrease was partially offset by an increase in direct-to-consumer sales.

Net loss was $3.3 million, or 11 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $5.3 million, or 18 cents. FactSet consensus was for a loss of 37 cents a share.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization was $72,000, down from the year-ago $2.4 million.

"Through numerous costs saving actions, we were able to weather the pressure on our top line from the temporary store closures across our wholesale channel and deliver approximately break-even Adjusted Ebitda," said Chief Executive Chris Ahern. "As the second quarter progressed and stores started to reopen in many regions of the country and the world, we started to experience an uptick in demand for our products at many of our retail partners."
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Up 34% today and I'm totally out.  This was one of my Payroll Protection Plan plays I mentioned months ago.  Notice they didn't mention the free money in the release.  In hindsight I would have been better off in other stocks, but it is kinda of cool to have a theory, research companies that fit into that theory, and see it pan out.

Next up is is NGS which reports on the 10th.

 
stbugs said:
Typically, Verizon is footing the bill to get people to stay on or use Verizon. Kind of the way they used to subsidize phones. Apple didn’t give away free phones. I don’t think Disney is giving away anything, Verizon is just paying Disney. Might get a discount but that’s the way that works.
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Interesting. I remember seeing several other deals in a similar vein so assumed it was, at least in part, being discount by Disney to get subscribers hooked in.

 
Desert_Power said:
Interesting. I remember seeing several other deals in a similar vein so assumed it was, at least in part, being discount by Disney to get subscribers hooked in.
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I would assume there’s some sort of volume discount too. Also don’t forget the people like me that paid for the discounted 3 year option. Wonder how that’s getting reported on their books...

 
ChiefD said:
So, another noob question here. At what point do you just say eff it and get out from an underperforming stock?
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Although you stated this a noob question, this is actually a really good question.

I'm not going to tell you that I'm the worlds greatest investor at all.  I've made plenty of mistakes throughout my investing history, but I think I've learned a bit along the way and here is what I do which may help you (and if it doesn't feel free to disregard).

Whenever I buy a stock, I have a spreadsheet detailing when I bought the stock, at what price/quantity I bought, and WHY I bought the stock.  For example, I bought SBUX a few months back and noted "Bought at $77.00/share - should be $100/share within 2 years.  Solid company, expecting a 50% return here"

As of right now the stock is trading at less than $76/share, so it's under performed the market so far pretty bad.  But, my rationale is still intact and they are opening up more stores, and I do have a two year timeline so I'm in no hurry to sell this one.

Now you mentioned CYDY and that's kind of a different animal, but you really need to figure out what you expect out of that.  That's kind of a homerun or pop out stock.  

 
guru_007 said:
Although you stated this a noob question, this is actually a really good question.

I'm not going to tell you that I'm the worlds greatest investor at all.  I've made plenty of mistakes throughout my investing history, but I think I've learned a bit along the way and here is what I do which may help you (and if it doesn't feel free to disregard).

Whenever I buy a stock, I have a spreadsheet detailing when I bought the stock, at what price/quantity I bought, and WHY I bought the stock.  For example, I bought SBUX a few months back and noted "Bought at $77.00/share - should be $100/share within 2 years.  Solid company, expecting a 50% return here"

As of right now the stock is trading at less than $76/share, so it's under performed the market so far pretty bad.  But, my rationale is still intact and they are opening up more stores, and I do have a two year timeline so I'm in no hurry to sell this one.

Now you mentioned CYDY and that's kind of a different animal, but you really need to figure out what you expect out of that.  That's kind of a homerun or pop out stock.  
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Good stuff. 

How do you decide when your investment thesis just isn't playing out yet (hold), has no chance to play out (bail), or has already played out (take profit)?

Figuring out that last bit has been the toughest thing for me to learn so far. 

 
Desert_Power said:
Interesting. I remember seeing several other deals in a similar vein so assumed it was, at least in part, being discount by Disney to get subscribers hooked in.
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Definitely understand that thought, but I remember how AT&T decided to get rid of subsidies because it was too costly. Apple was getting full price and AT&T got people to commit to 18-24 months. I assume that Disney+ is a wee bit easier to subsidize and it’s likely discounted just not free as far as Disney is concerned. I actually have HBO via AT&T and still have it for free. AT&T owns them so it’s not so big a deal. 

 
guru_007 said:
Whenever I buy a stock, I have a spreadsheet detailing when I bought the stock, at what price/quantity I bought, and WHY I bought the stock.  For example, I bought SBUX a few months back and noted "Bought at $77.00/share - should be $100/share within 2 years.  Solid company, expecting a 50% return here"
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Great idea. Thank you! 

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
Good stuff. 

How do you decide when your investment thesis just isn't playing out yet (hold), has no chance to play out (bail), or has already played out (take profit)?

Figuring out that last bit has been the toughest thing for me to learn so far. 
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yeah, they're all good questions.  I have other notes on my spreadsheet such as ratios at time of purchase (I like PEG most) and i also have notes on why i sold in case I want to get back in.

As far as when to punt, a) usually nearer year end for tax loss harvesting or b) events outside my thesis as to why I bought (example like OXY which changes from fiscally conservative to taking on too much debt).  I've given up on plenty of stocks too soon and am still holding stocks that I think can rebound (MMM comes to mind).  Also NLCH is being held at a massive loss but I bought back more to lower my cost average and will obviously hope a vaccine brings back the cruise lines before they go bankrupt.

As far as when to take a profit, I usually take some when I've double my money and let the rest run. I sold half my stake of MSFT but still sitting on a 6-7 bagger there.  NVDA too.  AMD and AMZN I trimmed about 30% as I like these for a longer time, but of course I would have preferred to still have my MSFT and NVDA but hogs get slaughtered.

Again, this is just how I try to think things out because I used to trade without rhyme or reason and I don't believe it served me well.  

 
General Malaise said:
EVSI awarded a patent for solar/wind powered street lights that can replace existing street lights.  The columns will be filled with batteries and allow for charging EVs for street parking, which would be huge in NYC.  Good stuff.  Also drone charging stations on roof tops.  This is neat.
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Talk about a company that is hard to find info on.

 
stbugs said:
Definitely understand that thought, but I remember how AT&T decided to get rid of subsidies because it was too costly. Apple was getting full price and AT&T got people to commit to 18-24 months. I assume that Disney+ is a wee bit easier to subsidize and it’s likely discounted just not free as far as Disney is concerned. I actually have HBO via AT&T and still have it for free. AT&T owns them so it’s not so big a deal. 
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Good stuff here thanks. Helps to examine the assumptions in my head.

 
BassNBrew said:
@sporthenry and other Tanker guys.  What's going on with the tanker companies wanting to raise money by issuing more stock?  Why not use some of the Q2 revenue?  Looks like the price hasn't been hit that hard, but I'm thinking I need to exit after earnings.  thoughts?
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Sorry haven’t been here as much. Missing some of earnings season although doesn’t seem like a bad thing. But which in particular? I think DHT added an ATM program which was weird but doesn’t tie them to anything. If I had to guess, some of the over-levered types may use it to de-lever. As long as they don’t build more ships. 

 
General Malaise said:
Bought 200 more shares of EVSI.  This guy could sell condoms to a monastery.
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Yeah but can he sell COBCF to a bunch of FBGs?  (up 13% today, I see!)

With you on EVSI, nice 12% bump in a week even with the dip today.  You see this as a long term hold, or have an exit point mapped out?

 
guru_007 said:
Whenever I buy a stock, I have a spreadsheet detailing when I bought the stock, at what price/quantity I bought, and WHY I bought the stock.  For example, I bought SBUX a few months back and noted "Bought at $77.00/share - should be $100/share within 2 years.  Solid company, expecting a 50% return here"
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I have a spreadsheet with the quantity / price / date but I'm going to add a "notes" field like you have listed here - great idea.

 
sporthenry said:
Sorry haven’t been here as much. Missing some of earnings season although doesn’t seem like a bad thing. But which in particular? I think DHT added an ATM program which was weird but doesn’t tie them to anything. If I had to guess, some of the over-levered types may use it to de-lever. As long as they don’t build more ships. 
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FRO.  June news, but $100 million.  They should be buying back shares at these prices.

 
Sold the WTI I bought last week for a 10% gain.  I believe @-OZ- and another tailed this and may want to take their profit.

 
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