Based on these results, I’d pass. For a time when people are eating healthy and eating at home, that’s not good at all. TTCF seems to be feeling that affect of BYND. Back on 10/6 TTCF posted their preliminary earnings for Q3 and got a 5% pop. They are down 4% AH because they officially announced the same results. They are in that healthy/alternate food sector like BYND. That said, I brought up TTCF because they had a great quarter in the same sector so this revenue and earnings miss (remember most companies have been exceeding) is not a good sign. They missed revenue estimates by 30% so the stock being down only 20% might be a bad indicator of an even bigger hit tomorrow. AH isn’t alway accurate and with all the exceeds that’s an awful miss.
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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The reason is because when they were at ATH's before Disney+ had like 2 million subscribers and now it probably has almost 70 million (we'll get the exact numbers at earnings but it was well over 50 million already a few months ago). Disney+ has had 10 years of growth in the 10 months since the stock was last at ATH's.
I've said this before. I have absolutely zero doubt that the parks business will bounce back to 100% long term. Heck for a little while it will probably be over that as people are dying to get to Disney right now. I'm sure their cruise business will take some hits after return to normal but that's not a huge part of their revenue (and I think Disney cruises will recover much better than other cruiselines, fwiw).
So even if you buy right now (and there was a stronger case for this in the 115's and 120's where I was saying people should be buying before) you're still getting an 8% discount off of ATH's and you're getting 68 million new Disney+ subscribers for free. You're basically getting 1/5th of Netflix, for free.
If COVID hadn't happened and the parks business was still alive and kicking but D+ had still grown to 70 million subscribers already what would DIS be priced at right now? A lot more than $153 imo.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'll start with the usual note that you're obviously much more knowledgeable about investing than I, but I'm curious as to why you think earnings are going to hurt the stock so much when they didn't last time?
The earnings last quarter were brutal too and the stock price went UP. Everyone has insanely low expectations for earnings right now with the majority of their business not fully open. Isn't the market forward looking? Why do multiples matter here when everyone knows these few earnings quarters are temporary numbers. This isn't Carnival where things might not ever be the same. It's not Delta where it might take 5 years. As soon as they open the parks back up at full capacity they will fill it up to full capacity. On literally Day 1. And the movies are the same. People will pack in to those once they get going again and even if they don't Disney already has a huge leg up on direct to consumer infrastructure.
From reading your posts it seems like the BEAR case for Disney is that it's a great company long term, but you might be able to trade it for a few months. That's not a very daunting worst case scenario.
For me DIS is my 2nd largest holding behind AMZN and is something that I plan to hold as part of my "safe" bucket until I retire that also has way more upside growth than anything else in my portfolio I would consider this safe. I owned a bunch before COVID. I bought more at 80, 90. 100, 115, 125. I'm not planning on trading any of it.
Again you're better at this than I, but I think this thing ever dipping below 100 again is extremely unlikely. I could see a dip into the 120's but that's what, a 10-15% move? What stock DOESN'T make those kind of moves right now? AMZN has dipped from 3500 to 3000 (15% move) twice in the last month and people haven't exactly been running to ditch their long term shares of AMZN every time it has a good day.
To be fair to you we may be talking about slightly different things here as you seem to be approaching it more with a trading mindsight in particular to shares that were bought at COVID lows, but I don't think there is anyone else here holding DIS with an $80 average. As a long term holder I just simply don't care what their earnings look like this quarter and I think a majority of Disney's long term investors feel the same way. We know these aren't indicative of absolutely anything regarding the future of the company, other than how many more years of growth Disney+ skipped ahead of.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Here's a hypothetical.
Disney+ was supposed to be a drag on Disney's bottom line for FIVE YEARS. What happens if Disney comes out at earnings and says Disney+ is profitable now, already?
When they projected 5 years to profitability they said they would need minimum 60 million subscribers to turn a profit and that it would take 5 years to hit that number. Instead they will now almost certainly announce at this quarter's earnings that they have over 60 million subscribers right now. Whether that means profitability or not I'm not sure, but if they announced that would anyone care about the very temporary parks revenues change?
Disney+ was supposed to be a drag on Disney's bottom line for FIVE YEARS. What happens if Disney comes out at earnings and says Disney+ is profitable now, already?
When they projected 5 years to profitability they said they would need minimum 60 million subscribers to turn a profit and that it would take 5 years to hit that number. Instead they will now almost certainly announce at this quarter's earnings that they have over 60 million subscribers right now. Whether that means profitability or not I'm not sure, but if they announced that would anyone care about the very temporary parks revenues change?
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Insoxicated
A LOT of those 60MM are "freebie" users like myself (mine is thru Verizon). I won't be renewing. I won't be alone there.
Not to say they're doing badly, but be careful accepting subscriber numbers on their face
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah, don’t compare it to Netflix yet. Outside of Mandalorian, there is no non-library type content we watch. Apple+ will be my first drop in December once my free year is up, but I might hop on for a month every time Ted Lasso comes out. Same with Disney and Mandalorian but at least Disney has more library content we watch occasionally. HBO Max and Prime are free but they’ve got more new content we watch. If I had to pay for both, I’d pay for Prime first. Netflix is a level above those. With the lockdown, I was fine paying for Disney because honestly, I am getting HBO, Prime and Apple+ for free. Disney really needs to add more good stuff.FreeBaGeL said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah I was talking about revenue generated, though it was admittedly a guess. I just did subscriber count * pricing = revenue generated, but I'm not sure the exact ratio since I don't know how how many D+ subscribers are subscribed to the expensive plan that includes Hulu/ESPN+ also. They have a little over 1/3rd the number of subscribers of Netflix.
But yea the content front might make it even more appealing because they're already at 60-70m subscribers and they haven't even released most of their new original content yet. I believe they have 4 new Marvel shows and 2 new Star Wars shows coming in the next couple years, with the first Marvel show dropping in the next couple months.
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Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Anyone tempted to add BYND?
Not me. I was thinking about it a few months ago but that report was bad. Stock’s down 20% and they missed their revenue target (most people have been exceeding) by 30%. Seems like it’s got more downside to me and I don’t get the CV impact. Seems like all the people buying grills and eating in/take out would be perfect for them. Real sit down restaurants got hit more and I don’t think that’s their sweet spot. I’d think it’s either competition or maybe people aren’t really loving the product as much.
Also, big flag to me is blaming CV when their Q2 numbers (real lockdown before opening back up more so in Q3) were their best ever.
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Damn BYND dragging down TTCF since they are in the healthy foods sector. TTCF posting earnings that were identical to the preliminary earnings they got a 5% pop for a month ago. This is when you can get some good bargains because all companies get lumped together whether they are doing well or not. Hitting LSF as well although I’m out of that a couple weeks ago when it got back in the 50s.
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Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
Saw it lower and it bounced back. Down again. I’ve now reaquired what I sold at 3250 and 3350. Sitting on lots of powder after yesterday’s saleathon
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Tomorrow is Veteran's Day. The market will be open but banks will be closed. So funds will take an extra day this week to get settled.
For a 5 year hold, absolutely but I’m sitting on my cash for now and also not selling anything in particular yet. FVRR definitely my stock that’s gotten hit the most but I’m about even still since I bought at $121 to start.
I think there’s a knee jerk reaction because it wasn’t like delivery and cloud stocks and 5G and smartphones happened during CV. There were absolutely some stocks that accelerated and went wild (why I sold ZM/FSLY when they peaked even though the companies are solid). FVRR is one of those and it’s getting hit especially hard. The funny thing is GRUB is in the same article as FVRR and is up today. I think food delivery is something that I’d avoid a bit more because with a vaccine, I’d rather go to a restaurant or pick it up myself. I’ve used DoorDash back when I travelled for work and it didn’t matter when it was expensed but considering how much of the population is struggling and how much Five Guys costs without being delivered and I’m eating filet mignon for the same price. FVRR is about freelance workers and while I’m sure the pandemic helped because people weren’t going to the office but it’s not like CV changed the dynamics and from what I’ve seen WFH isn’t going away. Long term I’d much rather have FVRR even though it’s getting hit more.
On a general view, definitely seeing some stocks I’d like to buy. I’m getting hammered overall just because I’m heavy in the tech space. I don’t see myself suddenly going for cruise ships and travel stocks, but I’m starting to watch more carefully for longer term bargains where maybe I’m not fully in now. Tech has definitely had floors where people jump in this year several times this year. I think the vaccine changes things a bit, but again most innovations aren’t going away and I’m not going to suddenly like a cruise. I do think company travel and WFH will permanently dent some things.
Also, I think people are really underestimating how hurt some companies will be losing profits/adding debt with over a year of minimal revenue. AMC went up over 50% yesterday and would have been up today if not for news that they may run out of money before the end of the year. Vaccine is great for movie theaters but AMC may still go bankrupt before it matters. Helps the business but not stockholders. Anyway, just throwing that out because I’m definitely not changing my long term thoughts and will look to add discounted stocks.
Texas Football
Footballguy
What is the general consensus on REIT's here? And if not the worst idea ever what are a few that are decently priced right now.
I bought some RC a few months back and with a near 10% pop today I am up 36%. Sort of want to trim, but the yield and price direction say hold.
If Todem is correct and Q1 sucks for earnings it would seem high yield REIT's might be a decent play for a bit. And I would bet he is more right.
Sitting on a decent wad of cash at the moment. Decent for me at least.
I bought some RC a few months back and with a near 10% pop today I am up 36%. Sort of want to trim, but the yield and price direction say hold.
If Todem is correct and Q1 sucks for earnings it would seem high yield REIT's might be a decent play for a bit. And I would bet he is more right.
Sitting on a decent wad of cash at the moment. Decent for me at least.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
In my trading account I'm all cash. I don't touch my mutual funds but just waiting to find something.
DDOG will be at a nice discount tomorrow. A couple weeks ago, after announcing a partnership with Microsoft (announced one with Google AH) it hit $118. Beat estimates handily, growing at 61%, but down to $83 AHs. That Microsoft announcement, and Google weren’t material to last quarter. Baby definitely getting thrown out with the bath water now. I bought at $38 in March but if it dips below $80, I think I’ll be looking to add some and let it ride for a few years.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Anyone here have experience converting an existing IRA to a Roth?
Short version, business doing poorly this year due to Covid. It's set up as a S-Corp, likely break even to small loss. My wife is a teacher, so our taxable income will be a small fraction of what it normally is. I have some rental properties spinning some income off, but we will barely even hit the 22% bracket I'm guessing. Considering converting some IRA funds to Roth and eating the tax bill this year when I can take on ordinary income at a lower rate than I likely ever will again. Has anyone done something like this before?
Short version, business doing poorly this year due to Covid. It's set up as a S-Corp, likely break even to small loss. My wife is a teacher, so our taxable income will be a small fraction of what it normally is. I have some rental properties spinning some income off, but we will barely even hit the 22% bracket I'm guessing. Considering converting some IRA funds to Roth and eating the tax bill this year when I can take on ordinary income at a lower rate than I likely ever will again. Has anyone done something like this before?
If you can and the tax bill is lower than it would normally be then I would do it. My wife and I work and haven’t been affected so we can’t do Roth. I’ve definitely thought about doing that transfer down the road if I’m not working anymore or we are retired but not collecting SS. If the tax to convert is less than you are paying on normal IRA withdrawals then I would definitely consider it. Kind of the best of both worlds in that as a dual income, 401ks/traditional IRAs are one of the few way to take income off the table and all that comes off the table is always at your highest bracket. If you can slide it into a Roth when your tax brackets are much lower then it’s a win win. I think there’s a limit so you might not be able to do it all this year.
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My wife and I had traditional iras (401k rollovers from previous jobs) that I converted a large portion of them to Roth’s this year. Didn’t have as much to do with what tax bracket we were in as it was that I did a lot of it back in March/April when a lot of the funds they were in were down so our taxable bill would be less since it’s taxed as ordinary income. I just did it all online with Fidelity in several chunks as certain funds or stocks were down at that time. It was pretty easy once I made the decision to do it. My thinking overall is the same reason I started to contribute to a Roth 401k instead of a regular 401k this year - ideally i want to have a 50/50 split of pre and post tax funds at retirement so I can try to be smart with when and how I draw from those accounts at retirement, and my regular 401k has a big lead on the other accounts at this point, plus I figure tax rates probably aren’t going down.
Down to $81. I may wait and see where it goes because I think there’s still downward near term pressure for most of my stocks. They exceeded on everything for the quarter and for the next quarter guidance but a booking or billing number was lower than estimates. Not sure what that means but it’s doesn’t appear to have changed their outlook for the year/Q4. One of those looking for something not perfect IMHO. Still growing well and the two new partners (Microsoft and Google) can only help future growth seeing as how those partnerships aren’t likely driving a ton of business until 2021.
Been a great stock for me this year, but more than double but down way more than most even with another great quarter and good guidance. I only own 100 shares because I bought it with a handful of other stocks in March so I wouldn’t mind bumping it up to 200 and in the 70s would be attractive. No doubt in my mind it could be well over double that in 3-5 years, maybe sooner.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Yeah, I still like it a lot. Probably should have bought more yesterday. The shift to the gig economy is not stopping, even if it may decelerate should we meet the optimistic vaccine timelines reported the last couple of days. It is growing fast globally and has really attractive margins. I think it will be the winner in this space. Unlike Uber/Lyft, there isn't the equivalent of autonomous vehicles out there to disrupt their current model of matching consumer/producer of the gig.
I see the potential there for this to replace large swaths of the contractor business, which is a huge market. I personally hire contractors and work with recruiting firms to do so. The margins that these recruiting firms make are ridiculous and it would be much more efficient to hire for the specific task instead of for a fixed period. Unfortunately, my company is really behind the times and restrictive on access so I doubt we would ever get to use a company like FVRR. I have read that more and more large companies are finding ways to make it work.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
How much customer service and/or complaint resolution do they have to do? A lot of these internet companies that act as a middleman have to have large workforces to handle customers and vendors. Profitability isn't automatic. I wonder if FVRR is similar to Booking.com, airbnb, eBay, Uber/Lyft, etc. in that regard?
NNOX has been a trooper lately. Up $2k on it but based on this:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4383997-nano-x-imaging-novel-technology-outdated-technology
I decided to sell my 200 shares. Nice profit (36%) for a couple months.
I’m not a short term guy either but I realized how much it had gone up in the past week or so and was happy getting out with a nice profit. Wanted to build up some more cash and like it or not, this one is a risky play. If the demo at the conference hits any type of snag, a drop back to mid 20s would be a blur. I don’t think FDA approval is any time soon so definitely more downside risk than upside. Either way, if you aren’t happy with the gain, stick with it. I looked and was and sometimes booking the gain (IRA so no tax implications) is a nice feeling.
Every article I read about stock picking and when to sell indicates, that on average, folks sell way too early. In fact, they've found that mutual fund managers do much better than average in buying stocks, but suck it up on the sell side.
I look at it as - what's changed? I don't see a whole lot, so will hang on until that landscape moves
I’d agree with you if this wasn’t a short term investment based on a recommendation in this thread. For the services I’ve paid for that recommended stocks for the next 3-5 years, I have been good at not selling early. The only time I sold early (I still have a lot of shares in the 3 companies), I wanted to diversify because they were way too much of my portfolio. They’ve all done well since then and the stocks I picked up have as well. I’ve also sold FSLY at $135, the day before it got destroyed and sold ZM in the high $500s on its peak day. Sold some TTD on Friday over $800. Sometimes when you sell early it’s not a bad thing. NNOX was not a long term hold and it had gone from being down 15-20% to up 36%. Any time a short term stock moves 50%, that seems like a good enough answer to the “what’s changed” question you had. If it was still at $24, I’d probably be still owning it. Good luck and keep rolling with it especially if you think it’s a long term hold for you.
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It is at this point, though not a big item. I have done pretty well with some of the items noted in here. CYDY (made 4x), DAL, DIS, QCLN, PPL, EXC, have all been good suggestions.
Right now I'm hoping the IPOC-IPOF suite of SPACs pay off at some point. Bought into all of them. Only really need one to hit and the rest become a freeroll.
If I was even still, I wouldn’t have sold but I was in at $28.50, so less downside risk for me. My decision was that it’s still a risky company that would get hit hard if the demo/FDA approval don’t come in good, so a $2k+ gain on a $5700 investment in 1-2 months was enough for me to not worry about higher upside. You’ve been upside down the entire time so you might be happy with even. I’ve got a couple more risky plays so if this is your only high risk play you might be fine riding it out more.
Assuming cruise lines and possibly other travel will get dinged based on that cruise having a stay in your state room alert due to a positive CV test. It might make the reality of travel not getting back to normal until late 2021 real. It’s not next week. Heck, I still think travel itself will take quite a bit more to get close to where it was in 2019.
Capella
Footballguy
Can’t imagine getting on a cruise anytime in the next 5 years. No way am I getting caught on one of those.
Exactly, which is why it seems premature that the vaccine cures all and does it tomorrow.
Texas Football
Footballguy
Bought a decent sized chunk of ZNGA after a $1 drop. Motley keeps telling me it is on the buy list and figured this was a decent entry price.
Any thoughts on this? Planning on this being a long term hold.
Any thoughts on this? Planning on this being a long term hold.
beef
Footballguy
Kind of kicking myself for not jumping on MRNA after the Pfizer vaccine news. Anyone buying it now?
What interests me is that it can be transported in normal freezer transports. That sounds like a pretty huge deal since there are plenty of trucks that can do that versus Pfizer's needing something that goes well below zero.
Update: Bought a little at $86.
What interests me is that it can be transported in normal freezer transports. That sounds like a pretty huge deal since there are plenty of trucks that can do that versus Pfizer's needing something that goes well below zero.
Update: Bought a little at $86.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
There are going to be some big shutdowns coming very soon with new daily Covid cases approaching 150k per day and the cold coming. For example I live in Northeast Ohio and as of this coming monday schools are closing due to the surging of new cases.
How do we profit?
How do we profit?
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
FWIW - Been looking at Biosimilar companies in the drug segment. All of the main players have some of these in the pipeline:
Link
Mylan NV seems to be out ahead to some degree and they have an interesting next few days as they are merging with Pfizer's Upjohn segment into a new company called Viatris. Upjohn has some legacy drugs that are winding down but can act as a cash cow and knowledgebase to help push Mylan's biosimilars forward. All PFE and MYL shareholders as of close tomorrow get an equal number of VTRS shares on Monday. Might be worth a look.
Link
Mylan NV seems to be out ahead to some degree and they have an interesting next few days as they are merging with Pfizer's Upjohn segment into a new company called Viatris. Upjohn has some legacy drugs that are winding down but can act as a cash cow and knowledgebase to help push Mylan's biosimilars forward. All PFE and MYL shareholders as of close tomorrow get an equal number of VTRS shares on Monday. Might be worth a look.
