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Stock Thread (26 Viewers)

I think PTON could pop after Thursday's earnings and guidance.

It's priced high, but is emerging as the biggest company in the home fitness area. This stock popped earlier this year after they announced they had bought Precor to help meeting production. 

Great management team and a stock that is worth just having in your portfolio to buy the dips.

 
stbugs said:
That article doesn’t make sense. What about LAZR for example? The stock went to $40 something but they received  $10 a share from the initial merger, right? LAZR never saw a dime at $40, but like AirBnB, the rest of their shares went up. How is that any different than leaving money on the table of an IPO? There was only one table in the article about IPO pops and it was 40%. That’s a premium that SPACs are getting now just on rumors.

If a merger causes the SPAC’s shares to rise, the company doesn’t get more cash. They get the cash that was raised at $10 a share and they value the company that way. If AirBnB used their $30 a share valuation that’s all they would have gotten from the SPAC. Instead they were able to more than double their initial “merger” price and get more up front. Same with DoorDash and Snowflake.

It’s disingenuous to say that AirBnB left money on the table when they raised their price, initial kitty and valuation while if they did an SPAC their kitty is based on the initial valuation.

The reason Lucid may go SPAC is because they’ve got not sales and honestly, aren’t a real company like AirBnB. They want to avoid fees, although the article mentions most SPAC promoters get 20%, which is why they likely don’t really give a crap if that company is a real good one or not. They made their money and aren’t really accountable to their clients. Morgan Stanley will be giving Tokopedia shares to its clients so there’s more due diligence on IPOs.

SPACs were a great place to dump cash was that there was almost no premium to buy and hold. There is now and since these companies are absolutely not vetted as much as IPO companies, I think SPACs are going to do way worse for people who don’t get in early. Some will work but not more than go IPO IMHO.
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Some scattered SPAC thoughts:

Despite Snowflake raising its IPO price, the IBs still left double that on the table as it immediately opened at 245 vs the IPO at 120.

SPACs usually have a much lower percent of the merged company floating, so it's much easier for them to raise capital later on at the higher valuations. I think DKNGs have done that a couple of times now. In theory it should allow the insiders to get a higher exit price when they sell. 

The promote actually dilutes the existing SPAC holders.

The due diligence cuts both ways. If you are a sound company that wants capital to expand, you really don't want to go through that entire process. If you are a WeWork type of company, you'd probably be public today if you had gone the SPAC route.

I don't agree with the conclusions of this piece, but it has a good breakdown of some of the mechanics of the merger. 

 
Shula-holic said:
I keep looking around for a place to invest, hard to find deals right now that I like.
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Most of the market is overpriced.  However, I don't think it's very hard to find places to invest.  I have sold one long term position so far this year as I thought it was overbaked and wanted to lock in the profits.  All of my other long term positions I've held or added to.  Stocks I own that I think are very undervalued - GOOG, AMD, NVDA.  Stocks I own that I think are undervalued - AMT, CNC, WMT.  

Stocks I'm looking at - AAPL (never owned it, but starting to look good here, could be 50% higher within 2 years), FB (only thing holding me back are regulatory concerns, but still looks cheap).  GOLD, FCX (defensive plays), I would like to say BTC, but I am having a very difficult time justifying this one, or finding a place to safely place asses.

Others on my watchlist - MDT, UNH, WKHS, V, MA, ADBE, SHOP.

Lastly, I really do like the financials as a longer term play, but I'm always wishy washy about which ones to pick.  I could make an argument for quite a few of them, although I loathe and will never own WFC stand alone.  So, I have a decent size position in XLF and have added to it.  

But, wtf do I know :shrug:

 
guru_007 said:
Most of the market is overpriced.  However, I don't think it's very hard to find places to invest.  I have sold one long term position so far this year as I thought it was overbaked and wanted to lock in the profits.  All of my other long term positions I've held or added to.  Stocks I own that I think are very undervalued - GOOG, AMD, NVDA.  Stocks I own that I think are undervalued - AMT, CNC, WMT.  

Stocks I'm looking at - AAPL (never owned it, but starting to look good here, could be 50% higher within 2 years), FB (only thing holding me back are regulatory concerns, but still looks cheap).  GOLD, FCX (defensive plays), I would like to say BTC, but I am having a very difficult time justifying this one, or finding a place to safely place asses.

Others on my watchlist - MDT, UNH, WKHS, V, MA, ADBE, SHOP.

Lastly, I really do like the financials as a longer term play, but I'm always wishy washy about which ones to pick.  I could make an argument for quite a few of them, although I loathe and will never own WFC stand alone.  So, I have a decent size position in XLF and have added to it.  

But, wtf do I know :shrug:
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Based on this post, I'd argue you know a lot more than most people. 

 
One other thing I'll add, and I think I've mentioned in this thread previously, but I do really like dividend stocks - I am in a few Vanguard dividend index funds.  I really really really think that these crowded trades are eventually going to stop or at least significantly slow down due to valuations.  PTON, ZM, etc, can only go so high.  There is so much cash on the sidelines right now and a LOT of investors are looking for safe places to invest (read, looking for value).  Dividend yields are not out of whack right now with historic averages and I think people will start taking a look there.  I'm on the older side of the FBG club, not legendary, or ancient, but old.  I am perfectly content having a few funds with six figures throwing me 3-5% year with some upside growth to supplement my retirement income.  I reinvest dividends on these funds and to me, just seems a no-brainer.  But again, wtf do I know.  I have no bonds, nor bond funds and just can't see any reason to do so, so these funds are my bonds.

 
guru_007 said:
Lastly, I really do like the financials as a longer term play, but I'm always wishy washy about which ones to pick.  I could make an argument for quite a few of them, although I loathe and will never own WFC stand alone.  So, I have a decent size position in XLF and have added to it.  
Click to expand...
Same here.  I'm in pretty heavy on BNKU and added more when it dipped under 24 recently.  

 
guru_007 said:
One other thing I'll add, and I think I've mentioned in this thread previously, but I do really like dividend stocks - I am in a few Vanguard dividend index funds.  I really really really think that these crowded trades are eventually going to stop or at least significantly slow down due to valuations.  PTON, ZM, etc, can only go so high.  There is so much cash on the sidelines right now and a LOT of investors are looking for safe places to invest (read, looking for value).  Dividend yields are not out of whack right now with historic averages and I think people will start taking a look there.  I'm on the older side of the FBG club, not legendary, or ancient, but old.  I am perfectly content having a few funds with six figures throwing me 3-5% year with some upside growth to supplement my retirement income.  I reinvest dividends on these funds and to me, just seems a no-brainer.  But again, wtf do I know.  I have no bonds, nor bond funds and just can't see any reason to do so, so these funds are my bonds.
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According to a story I saw on bloomberg or cnbc this morning, there's a TON of cash on the sidelines. 

 
guru_007 said:
One other thing I'll add, and I think I've mentioned in this thread previously, but I do really like dividend stocks - I am in a few Vanguard dividend index funds.  I really really really think that these crowded trades are eventually going to stop or at least significantly slow down due to valuations.  PTON, ZM, etc, can only go so high.  There is so much cash on the sidelines right now and a LOT of investors are looking for safe places to invest (read, looking for value).  Dividend yields are not out of whack right now with historic averages and I think people will start taking a look there.  I'm on the older side of the FBG club, not legendary, or ancient, but old.  I am perfectly content having a few funds with six figures throwing me 3-5% year with some upside growth to supplement my retirement income.  I reinvest dividends on these funds and to me, just seems a no-brainer.  But again, wtf do I know.  I have no bonds, nor bond funds and just can't see any reason to do so, so these funds are my bonds.
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Which dividend funds are you liking? The ones I typically follow are in the high 2’s to low 3’s range, generally at the lower end of their historical. I just threw some money last week into Verizon to get a 4.5% dividend.

 
T Love said:
Which dividend funds are you liking? The ones I typically follow are in the high 2’s to low 3’s range, generally at the lower end of their historical. I just threw some money last week into Verizon to get a 4.5% dividend.
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I'll just offer one, as some of the one's I'm in are riskier or have heavier fees, but VYM is one of my largest holdings.

It yields just 3.18% now, (but I take into account my cost average when calculating my effective yield).  

I do a year end report to my wife and father about my account.  I treat it as kind of a hedge fund with an annual report for kicks.  My father enjoys it, my wife rolls her eyes.  But at the end of last year I suggested adding to VZ, GOOG and VYM.  My wife was onboard with GOOG and VYM but she doesn't like VZ, because she likes TMobile.  So I said, okay and used those funds to add more to GOOG and VYM.  VZ is the 4th largest holding of VYM as it stands.  

 
cosjobs said:
According to a story I saw on bloomberg or cnbc this morning, there's a TON of cash on the sidelines. 
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Tom Lee has been emphasizing this for several months.

Of course, he is one of the biggest bulls out there, but he's also been the best forecaster in the pandemic era.

 
guru_007 said:
One other thing I'll add, and I think I've mentioned in this thread previously, but I do really like dividend stocks - I am in a few Vanguard dividend index funds.  I really really really think that these crowded trades are eventually going to stop or at least significantly slow down due to valuations.  PTON, ZM, etc, can only go so high.  There is so much cash on the sidelines right now and a LOT of investors are looking for safe places to invest (read, looking for value).  Dividend yields are not out of whack right now with historic averages and I think people will start taking a look there.  I'm on the older side of the FBG club, not legendary, or ancient, but old.  I am perfectly content having a few funds with six figures throwing me 3-5% year with some upside growth to supplement my retirement income.  I reinvest dividends on these funds and to me, just seems a no-brainer.  But again, wtf do I know.  I have no bonds, nor bond funds and just can't see any reason to do so, so these funds are my bonds.
Click to expand...
As @Desert_Powersaid, make AMZN your bond. 

 
T Love said:
Which dividend funds are you liking? The ones I typically follow are in the high 2’s to low 3’s range, generally at the lower end of their historical. I just threw some money last week into Verizon to get a 4.5% dividend.
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BEP/NEP are ones I like a lot still. Both are utilities that focus on renewables. If you get cash flow and you have a company that is growing/can take advantage of other market trends, that is best. 

 
Shula-holic said:
I keep looking around for a place to invest, hard to find deals right now that I like.
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Same here. I started a DIS, EBS and AMT position just because of @Todem. I know nothing about FLGT, but it looks like SE  in the way where there is usually a big dip day and I missed it yet again yesterday because, again, I know nothing about the company. I remember last month mentioning it had dropped to like $55, so I've definitely been kicking myself continually for not getting into this.

 
steelerfan1 said:
Same here. I started a DIS, EBS and AMT position just because of @Todem. I know nothing about FLGT, but it looks like SE  in the way where there is usually a big dip day and I missed it yet again yesterday because, again, I know nothing about the company. I remember last month mentioning it had dropped to like $55, so I've definitely been kicking myself continually for not getting into this.
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Also in DIS and EBS thanks to @Todem  :Todemgroupie:

 
Starting New AMZN position with hope that the new guy will split the stock.  If not, it makes a nice savings account.  I'm already up $2

 
stbugs said:
Bezos news is a surprise. They couldn’t have killed the quarter any more and that’s still with them investing like crazy.
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I like it. Hoping the new guy splits it. The price has to be more attractive to drive more buyers. It’s just too high for most people. Imo ow you can buy fractions and all that but it’s a mental thing. 

 
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cosjobs said:
According to a story I saw on bloomberg or cnbc this morning, there's a TON of cash on the sidelines. 
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Someone posted an interesting article a week or so ago about what a weird state we are in right now. COVID only greatly impacted certain jobs and sectors, most middle income and above workers and even a lot of lower end were able to easily transition to Work From Home. This has greatly reduced expenses and greatly increased overall personal income and savings rates. Those same people are paying down and refinancing debt like crazy due to the Fed pushing down interest rates to new historic lows not too mention they have a higher participation rate in the stock market so benefitting from the rebound there. Plus you’ve got stimulus money going out to everyone regardless of need.

So those that didn’t lose their jobs or businesses are in amazing financial shape while there’s real economic damage to the smaller minority of those that were actually financially impacted.

 
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So what's the summary of all the shenanigans with CCIV this morning?  It looks like Bloomberg tweeted that deal with Lucid wasn't imminent, then corrected to whoops we meant deal with DirecTV wasn't imminent.

And then I see a separate report that talks with Lucid still in progress but a ways out.  Is that second report just off the misquoted tweet?

 
Capella said:
I like it. Hoping the new guy splits it. The price has to be more attractive to drive more buyers. It’s just too high for most people. Imo ow you can buy fractions and all that but it’s a mental thing. 
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Not sure why Bezos was being stubborn on this.  Eat some humble pie and admit Apple had it right.  If I only had $1000 to invest Amazon isn't even on my radar.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
So what's the summary of all the shenanigans with CCIV this morning?  It looks like Bloomberg tweeted that deal with Lucid wasn't imminent, then corrected to whoops we meant deal with DirecTV wasn't imminent.

And then I see a separate report that talks with Lucid still in progress but a ways out.  Is that second report just off the misquoted tweet?
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I'm holding as long as it is linked to Lucid.

 
TripItUp said:
Current Holdings 

DKNG

HZAC 

HZON 

IPOE 

DKNG 

ETH 

CCIV 

SI 

VGAC 

50% cash 
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You move around a lot on holdings.  What do you like with HZAC and HZON?  Also, why Ethan Allen?  That's an interesting holding I haven't seen bandied about here.

My holdings in my play account are a cluster of all kinds of stuff and I'm fully invested.  Not sure what to sell if I wanted to buy anything.  1/2 of it is AAPL+AMZN, a decent bit of staid stocks like DE, JNJ, and YUM, and I think I'm up to 9 SPACs, which in total have returned me about 25% in a pretty short timeframe.  

 
BassNBrew said:
Not sure why Bezos was being stubborn on this.  Eat some humble pie and admit Apple had it right.  If I only had $1000 to invest Amazon isn't even on my radar.
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Exactly. You’ll buy 10-20 shares of something else rather than a third of amazon. Doesn’t make any sense why he’s so hard headed on this. 

 
cosjobs said:
SNDL Sundial up sharply pre-market. I bought a couple thousand as a wtf deal at .84 and have been handsomely rewarded. I would not recommend buy here, but if it dip below a dollar, definitely. The volume is unbelievable.
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I sold $1 March puts for like $0.40. Still can sell em for ~$0.30 as another way to play this.

 
guru_007 said:
One other thing I'll add, and I think I've mentioned in this thread previously, but I do really like dividend stocks - I am in a few Vanguard dividend index funds.  I really really really think that these crowded trades are eventually going to stop or at least significantly slow down due to valuations.  PTON, ZM, etc, can only go so high.  There is so much cash on the sidelines right now and a LOT of investors are looking for safe places to invest (read, looking for value).  Dividend yields are not out of whack right now with historic averages and I think people will start taking a look there.  I'm on the older side of the FBG club, not legendary, or ancient, but old.  I am perfectly content having a few funds with six figures throwing me 3-5% year with some upside growth to supplement my retirement income.  I reinvest dividends on these funds and to me, just seems a no-brainer.  But again, wtf do I know.  I have no bonds, nor bond funds and just can't see any reason to do so, so these funds are my bonds.
Click to expand...
$MO is interesting if looking for a divvy play. I think it's hovering around 8%. Some optionality with potential cannabis legalization if they then jump in there. 

 
Sand said:
You move around a lot on holdings.  What do you like with HZAC and HZON?  Also, why Ethan Allen?  That's an interesting holding I haven't seen bandied about here.
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ETH is etherium...I should probably clarify that.  :doh:

HZAC linked to ARK, potential fintech merger.   Both HZON and HZAC are Guggenheim managed.   They both look like the type that can pop to me.  

My holdings in my play account are a cluster of all kinds of stuff and I'm fully invested.  Not sure what to sell if I wanted to buy anything.  1/2 of it is AAPL+AMZN, a decent bit of staid stocks like DE, JNJ, and YUM, and I think I'm up to 9 SPACs, which in total have returned me about 25% in a pretty short timeframe.  
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Yeah, I've been playing a lot of SPACs that have outperformed everything sans some of the big tech runners.(generalizing)

 
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Capella said:
Exactly. You’ll buy 10-20 shares of something else rather than a third of amazon. Doesn’t make any sense why he’s so hard headed on this. 
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I really didn't start trading Apple until after the recent split.  I know that's stupid in theory, but there's something comforting about being able to buy 1-2 shares and having some cash left to add more later if it drops.

 
KGB said:
MMEDF up 10%.  Anyone else in this or is everyone on TRUFF?
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I had over 5000 shares in the low 2.90s. I just sold 2000 at 3.39. Sometimes that's as far as it runs, so I wanted to lock in some profit and have $$ to buy more if it dips below 3.00. I'd probably sell another 1000 around 3.75 and hold the rest in case it finally makes a moon shot.

 
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