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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)

cosjobs said:
I had over 5000 shares in the low 2.90s. I just sold 2000 at 3.39. Sometimes that's as far as it runs, so I wanted to lock in some profit and have $$ to buy more if it dips below 3.00. I'd probably sell another 1000 around 3.75 and hold the rest in case it finally makes a moon shot.
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Thanks for this tip.  Just sold half at $3.42.  Love those 17% returns in a week.

 
JAA said:
What I like about the high price is it reduces volatility.  Since I'm using it, MSFT, GOOGL, WMT, and TGT for my retirement ... gimme reduced volatility
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I thought you had sold your exposure to Google (alphabet) and went into Boeing or am I mis-remembering?

 
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Reactions: JAA
Worm said:
Explain UVXY to me like I'm teat.
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It tracks the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index (at 1.5 leverage).  Simple explanation - In S&P 500 futures trading when more puts are traded it increases the demand for them which then = increased volatility = UVXY goes up.

 
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stbugs said:
That article doesn’t make sense. What about LAZR for example? The stock went to $40 something but they received  $10 a share from the initial merger, right? LAZR never saw a dime at $40, but like AirBnB, the rest of their shares went up. How is that any different than leaving money on the table of an IPO? There was only one table in the article about IPO pops and it was 40%. That’s a premium that SPACs are getting now just on rumors.

If a merger causes the SPAC’s shares to rise, the company doesn’t get more cash. They get the cash that was raised at $10 a share and they value the company that way. If AirBnB used their $30 a share valuation that’s all they would have gotten from the SPAC. Instead they were able to more than double their initial “merger” price and get more up front. Same with DoorDash and Snowflake.

It’s disingenuous to say that AirBnB left money on the table when they raised their price, initial kitty and valuation while if they did an SPAC their kitty is based on the initial valuation.

The reason Lucid may go SPAC is because they’ve got not sales and honestly, aren’t a real company like AirBnB. They want to avoid fees, although the article mentions most SPAC promoters get 20%, which is why they likely don’t really give a crap if that company is a real good one or not. They made their money and aren’t really accountable to their clients. Morgan Stanley will be giving Tokopedia shares to its clients so there’s more due diligence on IPOs.

SPACs were a great place to dump cash was that there was almost no premium to buy and hold. There is now and since these companies are absolutely not vetted as much as IPO companies, I think SPACs are going to do way worse for people who don’t get in early. Some will work but not more than go IPO IMHO.
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That's not how SPACs work when they reach agreements. Sure the shares start at say $10 (some are different amounts) but it's all about the deal they negotiate with the company which is why anyone telling you how much one of these is worth before the terms are announced should be avoided. If a SPAC raised $300m at $10/share there are 30m shares (ignoring warrants for now because those are all over the board) out there now. Say the SPAC decides to merge with a company like Tokopedia. That $300m in SPAC funds could buy them 5% or 15% or even 100% of the company, it all depends on the deal they make. So companies have MUCH more control over their valuation with a SPAC then they do an IPO. 

 
[icon] said:
:popcorn:   I know Cobalt has become somewhat of a meme here due to past stuff, but what's the scoop here?

Triggers? Targets? Timeline?  Best ways to buy in? 
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Loathe to recommend any stock plays.  I'm more interested in the commodity right now and should the velocity of the move ramp up, some of these horrific cobalt miners will catch a bid.  Just interesting in general because the metal was knocked down hard after the last run up and investors completely fled the scene.  But they're coming back into the picture and that'll put pressure on the metal prices which would again, lift these crappy cobalt miners.  

Again, I got so burned and burned so many of my iBuddies on cobalt in the past that I'm reticent to recommend again, but I'm still long a lot of these crap companies and the metal heading higher makes me enthused.

 
CR69 said:
That's not how SPACs work when they reach agreements. Sure the shares start at say $10 (some are different amounts) but it's all about the deal they negotiate with the company which is why anyone telling you how much one of these is worth before the terms are announced should be avoided. If a SPAC raised $300m at $10/share there are 30m shares (ignoring warrants for now because those are all over the board) out there now. Say the SPAC decides to merge with a company like Tokopedia. That $300m in SPAC funds could buy them 5% or 15% or even 100% of the company, it all depends on the deal they make. So companies have MUCH more control over their valuation with a SPAC then they do an IPO. 
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I completely understand that but I don’t see how setting an IPO price is any different than setting the valuation in the SPAC merger. When they announce the merger and the SPAC goes to $20 the company “missed out” on the $10 a share in cash just like an IPO priced at $10 pops to $20. That article made reference to the IPO company missing out on that pop cash, but that’s no different than the SPAC company missing it on the same pop. The SPAC company got the $300M at $10 a share, they didn’t get $600M because the SPAC popped to $20 after the merger.

The one thing that the IPO can take advantage of is that in between the announcement of price (same as merger announcement) and the “pop”, they could read the demand and raise the share price. So in my example above, the IPO company may have bumped up the IPO price to $15.

Maybe you are trying to say that an SPAC company can value their company higher than an IPO but I’d think it would be the same process for both. I don’t think the people who run the SPAC are going to just deal for less since they usually include a extra investment based on the agreed upon valuation.

It’s not a big deal anyway, in both cases the companies are selling a certain % of their company for an agreed about price and then if there is a pop after they got that initial cash, the rest of the shares do get the value of that pop.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
And there it is.  SAVA hits 100. 

Some guy wrote a SA article giving SAVA a $100 price target back when SAVA was $2.

That son of a ##### actually did it.
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I know it's an Alzheimers drug, that's about it.  If this thing really does work it will bat a few more baggers.  

 
HOFVW up 28% today.

Up almost 40% since I bought it last Friday.

Thanks to whoever recommended it here.

 
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Bought some $PSTG today.  Recommendation came from my mom who is retired in her 70's and has been crushing the YOLOs in her IRA over the past 2 years.  Her analysis was "it's cloud storage and going to be big."  She doesn't know anything about finance and probably got the recommendation from some talking head on CNBC, but let's see what happens.

 
beef said:
I know it's an Alzheimers drug, that's about it.  If this thing really does work it will bat a few more baggers.  
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It's a long ways from truly working.  Just good news in the interim analysis similar to our favorite Lebron stonk.  They haven't even finished the trial yet.  Seems like some shorts got caught offguard by the good PR and it's kind of been running on that.

I've been told market mechanics don't count so I guess anyone that's long SAVA right now is only allowed to sell at fair market value of $20ish.

 
stbugs said:
I completely understand that but I don’t see how setting an IPO price is any different than setting the valuation in the SPAC merger. When they announce the merger and the SPAC goes to $20 the company “missed out” on the $10 a share in cash just like an IPO priced at $10 pops to $20. That article made reference to the IPO company missing out on that pop cash, but that’s no different than the SPAC company missing it on the same pop. The SPAC company got the $300M at $10 a share, they didn’t get $600M because the SPAC popped to $20 after the merger.

The one thing that the IPO can take advantage of is that in between the announcement of price (same as merger announcement) and the “pop”, they could read the demand and raise the share price. So in my example above, the IPO company may have bumped up the IPO price to $15.

Maybe you are trying to say that an SPAC company can value their company higher than an IPO but I’d think it would be the same process for both. I don’t think the people who run the SPAC are going to just deal for less since they usually include a extra investment based on the agreed upon valuation.

It’s not a big deal anyway, in both cases the companies are selling a certain % of their company for an agreed about price and then if there is a pop after they got that initial cash, the rest of the shares do get the value of that pop.
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I could be totally off base here as I am far from an expert in these things, but isn't one major difference that with a SPAC the company negotiates the price themselves whereas with an IPO a 3rd party dictates what they think is a fair price?

So if ABNB believed they were a $100 billion company they could have shopped around to find a SPAC that was willing to merge at that price.  But going the IPO route ABNB believing that they were $100 billion company is irrelevant because a 3rd party decided they were a $30 billion company and priced them there.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I could be totally off base here as I am far from an expert in these things, but isn't one major difference that with a SPAC the company negotiates the price themselves whereas with an IPO a 3rd party dictates what they think is a fair price?

So if ABNB believed they were a $100 billion company they could have shopped around to find a SPAC that was willing to merge at that price.  But going the IPO route ABNB believing that they were $100 billion company is irrelevant because a 3rd party decided they were a $30 billion company and priced them there.
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That’s like saying that the SPAC guys who usually put in secondary money are just going to bend over and take whatever valuation the company wants. Why would I go IPO if the underwriters tell me they think we are worth half and I’ll just have to take it? I’d think the valuation for any company whichever route should be similar, right? One main difference I see is that with an IPO, they get to test out the valuation and gauge interest and in the recent hot IPOs they basically doubled the agreed upon valuation.

ABNB got over $3B in cash. There’s no SPAC so far that has had that much cash and just like SPACs, all companies are giving up just a portion of their company so the pop is good for any of the companies.

I think @CR69 said something that I think is telling. He said that if WeWork went SPAC they wouldn’t have had an issue and I think he’s right. I don’t think that all of these SPACs are run by solid teams so there are a lot of questionable companies going public and as long as the promoters walk away (that Harvard study showed the fees were way more in  typical SPACs) with money they don’t care. The investors aren’t their clients so lower quality companies can go public.

Don't get me wrong, I’m still into some SPACs that haven’t merged and owned a bunch of them, but I think there’s a lot of meh ones that have big premiums.

 
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